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1 Exploring variability of regular behaviour within households using meter data Ian Dent, PhD student Supervisors:

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1 1 Exploring variability of regular behaviour within households using meter data Ian Dent, PhD student Supervisors: Uwe Aickelin, Tom Rodden

2 2 Massive pressure to reduce carbon usage Demand must adapt to supply Demand Side Management one solution Interventions to change consumer behaviour Market Trends From Tata Power For benefit of wider network

3 3 To use DSM, need to know existing usage Standard profiles generated by electricity industry –(half hour readings) Usage Profiles Differing shapes for weekday, Sat, Sun Peak time of about 4pm to 8pm Economy 7 and non E7 only From Elexon

4 4 Cluster similar households on: –Overall shape of usage –Total usage –Other behavioural characteristics E.g. flexibility of behaviour Find few (less than 10) stereotypes –Address each differently Flexible pricing, batteries, external disruption Cannot collect demographic / attitudinal data for large volumes of households due to cost and time –However, meter data available for all (in 2020+) Finding similar households

5 5 380 households Year+ of readings 5 minute sampling 25 million total readings Data issues –Missing readings –“wandering” timestamps “Cleaned” to provide readings exactly on 5 minute boundaries – 288 per day per household Demographic and attitudinal data also collected Data courtesy of Tony Craig, The James Hutton Institute, Aberdeen North East Scotland Energy Monitoring Project

6 6 Some households are very regimented in their activities –Eat at same times each day –Rise, retire at same times Others are very variable in their behaviour Hypothesis: chaotic (very variable) households will accept different behaviour modification interventions than the “creatures of habit” Many possible measures of variability / “flexibility” –My research is to explore which is “best” Flexibility of household

7 7 Approach

8 8 Need groupings where each can be represented by a stereotypical user (Courtesy of M. Sarstedt and E. Mooi) –Substantial (large enough to be worth addressing) –Accessible (understandable with observable information) –Actionable (can be addressed) –Stable (remain consistent over time) –Parsimonious (few only) –Familiar (understandable to management) –Relevant (to market of company) –Compact (well separated and internally well connected) –Differentiable (distinguishable conceptually) Requirements for better targeting

9 9 Hard to pick suitable one Need to consider all “marketing” aspects –Not just separation and compactness Need to vary: –number of attributes, differing attributes Cluster Dispersion Indicator Cluster Validity Indexes Where intraset distance of set S consisting of s 1 to s N Where C is set of cluster centres and R k are the members of kth cluster

10 10 Example of one random week (7-11 March 2011), two households, peak period (4pm to 8pm) Calculate “minutes after 4pm” – mean and SD Time of maximum usage

11 11 Kmeans clustering using 2 attributes –Total used –Flexibility (variability of time of maximum usage) Red – most flexible users –Offer incentives Black – “stuck in a rut” –Need to address differently – battery? Simple Results

12 12 Kmeans using 3 attributes –Total electricity –Variability of time of maximum –Variability of time of minimum Extend to multiple dimensions with other measures of flexibility Results with extra measures

13 13 Finding regular activities Exploring how timing varies from day to day Focus on activities and not individual appliance usage –E.g. cooking evening meal, going to bed, arriving home –Time “stretching”? Allows for intervention related to particular activity –E.g. free sandwiches Motifs

14 14 Motif finding using SAX aabbbbddd aaabbdddc Alphabet size (4) Split points (normal dist) Motif size (9)

15 15 Explore use of differences –Change in use is what is of interest rather than amount of use (i.e. switch something on/off) Explore parameters –alphabet size –motif size –alphabet assignment (other distributions) Explore removing repeating characters –Has been useful in other application areas What is “interesting” – how to automate? Explore differing collection frequencies Current work

16 16 Finding demographics from meter data Stereotypes from Meter data Demographic stereotypes Compare groupings

17 17 Flexibility concept within load profile analysis –Differing flexibility measures –How to assess “best” –Using motif matching to find regular activities Usefully addressable clusters Objective evaluation using cluster validity indices Validation using demographic and attitudinal data Summary

18 18 Good references I should read Cluster validity ideas –Ideas for best validity indexes or combination to use –Include some or all of marketing goals E.g. parsimonious – related to stability measures as numbers of clusters change? Ideas on how to include in automated evaluation? Experience of SAX with meter data Any good ideas ?? Help please?

19 19 G. Chicco. Overview and performance assessment of the clustering methods for electrical load pattern grouping. Energy, T. Craig, C. Galan-Diaz, S. Heslop, and J. Polhill. The North East Scotland Energy Monitoring Project (NESEMP). In Workshop on Climate Change and Carbon Management. The James Hutton Institute, March DECC. Towards a Smarter Future, Government Response to the Consultation on Electricity and Gas Smart Metering A. Kiprakis, I. Dent, S. Djokic, and S. McLaughlin. Multi-scale Dynamic Modeling to Maximize Demand Side Management. In IEEE Power and Energy Society Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Europe 2011, Manchester, UK, C. River. Primer on demand-side management with an emphasis on price-responsive programs. prepared for The World Bank by Charles River Associates, Tech. Rep, M. Sarstedt and E. Mooi. A concise guide to market research: The process, data, and methods using IBM SPSS statistics. Springer Verlag, J. Shieh and E. Keogh, Proceeding of the 14th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining, 2008, pp. 623–631. Thanks to Tony Craig of James Hutton Institute for data. Thanks to Pavel Senin of University of Hawaii for code for SAX References


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