Presentation on theme: "Megatrends and Tasks of the Researcher Real Estate Market Analyst „An Appeal for an Europe-wide Standardized Job Profile“ ERES 2010 Milano June 24 th 2010."— Presentation transcript:
Megatrends and Tasks of the Researcher Real Estate Market Analyst „An Appeal for an Europe-wide Standardized Job Profile“ ERES 2010 Milano June 24 th 2010 Dr. Thomas Beyerle Head of Global Research
1 Contents Determining Factors – Megatrends Megatrends and its Impact on the Labour Market Corporate Government and a Changing Working Environment Job Profile - Real Estate Market Analyst
2 Real Estate Research – behind the trend? Mega-Issues since 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Real Estate Appraisal Project Development Facility Management CREM/FM Securitization, Mortgaging Real Estate Banking/Financing - REITs Investment Appraisal (DCF); Non-normed Appraisal Methods – Structured Finance – NPL-Emerging Markets Asset, Portfolio and Risk Management Credit Derivatives – Core, Core+ Value added Opportunity Crisis Management, Refurbishment– Green Building – Property Management Every 6 months on average a „new“ issue is being introduced Demographic Change Financial Crisis Debt
3 Formation and Development of Megatrends 4 Dimensions of the Crystal ball Megatrends/ Future „Coincidences“ Strategies Assumptions Current Developments/ Trends
4 Megatrends and the Real Estate Markets Overview: Factors of Influence At presentIn the future EffectsMegatrends in relation to… Commercial Properties Residential, retail, and leisure properties All property segments Ecological and technological change: efficiency Social change: complexity Political and economic structural change: dynamic
5 What will be forthcoming in the near future? Megatrends and their impact on the Real Estate Industry We know this already
6 Contents Determining Factors – Megatrends Megatrends and its Impact on the Labour Market Corporate Government and a Changing Working Environment Job Profile - Real Estate Market Analyst
7 Overview Impact of Global Trends on Employees In the Real Estate Business Globalisation Demographic Change Information Society Tertiarisation of Jobs Knowledge-based Economy Economy / Labour Market
8 Global Trends Globalisation Shift of activity between and within regions Growing number of consumers in emerging economies/changing consumer tastes Increasingly global labour and talent markets Increasing constraints on the supply and usage of natural resources Shifting industry structures / emerging forms of corporate organization Geopolitical instability Increasing sophistication of capital markets But also increasing Hysteria! SARS, Terrorism Swine flu Ash cloud…..
9 Global Trends Tertiarisation of Jobs Growth of public sector - decrease of jobs in primary sector and on traditional industries, increase in the service sector and also in sectors related to the knowledge economy Employment trends In 2015 around 30% of all jobs need high skills and 50% medium qualifications. The demand for low qualifications will fall from a third in 1996 to around 20%. Skill needs will grow in every occupation Sectors identified as potential creators of work in the future are: aerospace, audiovisual industry, aviation, banks and insurance companies, defence, ecological economy, information technology, pharmaceutical, safety, media, transports, tourism and travels. And Real Estate?
10 Global Trends Demographics World population in 2015 will be 7.2 billion, up from 6.1 billion in the year 2000 2007: more then 50% of global population are city dweller Combination of population growth, migration and urbanisation will foster instability Declining birth rates and aging in advanced countries will leave significant shortfalls in the size and capacity of the work force (iPad kills sex) Demand for qualified workers (quality vs. quantity) Brain drain In some developing countries same trends will combine to expand the size of the working population and reduce the youth bulge – increasing the potential for economic growth and political stability But how to benefit from the best ager?
11 Global Trends Information Society Development of technologies empower consumers and communities (online connectivity) Adoption of increasingly scientific and data-driven management techniques Increasing availability of knowledge and the ability to exploit it Faster pace of technological innovation Dissolution of space or necessity of centralization, access to IUK technologies
12 Explosion of Information Dramatic Reduction of Half-Life “The limits of my language mean the limits of my world” Ludwig Wittgenstein, Engineer and Philosopher Between 2000 and 2008 there was more data produced than it has been in the last 40.000 years Quadruplicating of data between 2005 and 2008 Source: UC Berkeley The weekend edition of the New York Times contained more information than a human being has taken in a hundred years ago during his entire life!
13 Global Trends Knowledge-based Economy Education and training as a fundament for sustainable success Innovation as a central factor for competition in real estate Rise of the Creative Class Open business / innovation systems & networks and business mash-ups More diverse work structures, patch work biographies New values added networks Platform-based economy
14 Contents Determining Factors – Megatrends Megatrends and its Impact on the Labour Market Corporate Government and a Changing Working Environment Job Profile - Real Estate Market Analyst
15 Corporate Organisation in Real Estate Shifting Forms of co-operation Project work Interdisciplinary teams Demystification of hierarchy: Partner instead of superior Flexible work schedule individualized according to the employees needs Corporate attitude to elderly employees on an individual approach to be managed, trained and remunerated
16 Challenged Employees Engaging Masterminds Increasing importance of extra functional qualifications Social skills Communication / elocution Presentation method Personality vs. technocrat
17 Working Environment Challenges for Employees Increase of KnowledgeWork-Life-Balance Increase of mental activities Necessity of more specific /professional knowledge Necessity of integrated knowledge from increasingly more areas More responsibilities, which demand skills of creativity and improvisation Mix of work, private life, flexibilisation Competence-Management: Responsibility for own qualification Overstraining and Burn-out suffering Lower influence on schedule of job history Employee The working environment is getting more complex. Employees have to manage their career much more on their own initiative than before. A fluid and rapidly changing business market means that employees need regular training: soft skills like adaptability, communication, and emotional intelligence are becoming more important, particularly when working across cultures.
18 Lifelong Learning Professional Life Cycle (BCG-Matrix) Maslow Pyramid – Up-date: „Trophy Generation“ Everyone gets a "Thanks for Participating” trophy, symbolizing a perceived sense of entitlement. Star Cash Cow Poor dog ? Age of 0-27Age of 28-49Age of 50-65Age over 65 Establishment of basis ! Investment Further training Hold and skimDeinvest Harley Davidson
19 Lifelong Learning Reason for advanced vocational training Advanced vocational training – most important reasons in % of the respondents: Adaption to new developments55 Prevention of career decline54 Prospects of career advancement53 Deepening of professional knowledge45 Improvement of professional knowledge33 Source: BMBF
20 Contents Determining Factors – Megatrends Megatrends and its Impact on the Labour Market Corporate Government and a Changing Working Environment Job Profile - Real Estate Market Analyst
21 Real Estate Market Research Definition and General Objective Real Estate Market Research is defined to be the systematic and efficient surveying and analyses of real estate and property markets (of all kind of property) plus their conditions and factors of influence. This includes i.a. the collection, weighting and valuation of information about the real estate market (letting and investment market), which are directly or indirectly related to the property by applying scientific methods. Aim is security of capital investment, plans or visions by figures respectively forecasts.
22 Real Estate Research – the eternal data provider? Quantity = Quality ? Nowadays a dozen companies report more or less often about the real estate markets of an international city Increasing relevance of research as a strategic competitive factor – not solely a vehicle for PR, but also in particular as a consulting tool But: Has the quality increased by broadening the basis? Current potential reasons for shortness of quality Insufficient coverage because of lacking resources or market penetration Secrecy, protection of confidence at contract closing Information as „good“ – development of strategic value for the one who is informed No global consistent definitions and criteria for data collection No global consistent differentiation of market areas Pressure-group policy / “improvement of data“
23 Real Estate Corporate Research Our survey shows that employees of European Real Estate companies “waste” an average of 67 minutes a day with searching for information on markets. The lack of information might result in wrong decisions in the companies concerned. Useful information are the most important competitive factor at the market and thereby the most valuable asset of a successful company. About two thirds employ fewer than 5 researchers per 100 employees. Only companies that operate in the field of real estate market research have more than 50% of research employees. Nearly all surveyed companies are doing market and location analyses and data procurement/ analyses. Almost equally important are market forecasts - their importance and that of office market reports will probably grow in the future. It is mainly the quantitative methods that will gain priority.
24 Current Situation of Real Estate Research Training Field of Research (case of Germany) No Standardised Training for Researchers No defined requirements for job access Most researchers access companies by internships In Germany approx. 2/3 of all researchers are either geographers or business economists Approx. only 10% have participated in further training Reason for lacking job profile: fledgling discipline being first introduced by British companies at the end of the 1980s (U.S. and UK have defined job profile of real estate analyst resp. property analyst) 114 real estate study programs (e.g. for real estate management, real estate economics, facility management, real estate appraisal, urban and regional planning, real estate and housing industry) are offered at 45 universities and at 22 technical colleges plus 4 other institutions in Germany BUT
25 Long-term Objective Establishment of an Independent Study Program for Real Estate Market Research Research / consulting employment is favoured fourth place by real estate students after project development, asset and property management and appraisal In Germany the position of a real estate researcher is considered to be at entry-level, most move to another real estate field after 2 or 3 years of professional experience Changing market conditions challenge researchers to adapt from a generalist to a specialist view Increasing demand of an independent study program for real estate market research !
26 Real Estate Market Analyst Dimensions of the Job Profile Real Estate Market Analyst Personal Skills Academic Skills Occupational Skills Responsibilities
27 Real Estate Market Analyst – Job Requirements ResponsibilitiesAcademic Skills Basics Regional, national and/or international market monitoring Collection of primary and secondary data of real estate markets/properties/sites Compilation market and location analysis, analysis of rental and purchase price Development of user concepts Exchange of professional experience with other market participants Investment/Divestment: Collection of real estate key numbers in case of acquisition/sale, forecasts, assessment of (subspace) markets Comprehension of spatial economics Comprehension of relation of economic real estate issues Knowledge of macroeconomic relations/main features of capital market theory Knowledge of statistics (empirical analysis methods) Knowledge of English Language (written and spoken) Company Specific Compilation of market reports (internal – external) Support portfolio manager (strategy, monitoring, identification, selection) Compilation project costing Compilation of analysis and presentations for internal and external addressees Written and oral presentation of results Occupational SkillsPersonal Skills Basics Graduation from university in geography, urban development and town planning/architecture, economics and business studies or comparable Personal initiative and responsibility (high degree of willingness for advanced vocational training) Capacity for strategic-analytic thought/structured approach of tasks Strong communication skills and expressiveness Capacity for team work and mediation Company Specific Ideally additional qualification/postgraduate study in real estate economics Willingness to travel
28 A international network: European Research Organisations The world of Research - base for a change Italian Research Forum
29 The next steps “I am still learning.” Michelangelo Thank you for your attention!