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Golf Business Trends 2012 and The Opportunity for Growth Presented to: Golf Summit of Washington.

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Presentation on theme: "Golf Business Trends 2012 and The Opportunity for Growth Presented to: Golf Summit of Washington."— Presentation transcript:

1 Golf Business Trends 2012 and The Opportunity for Growth Presented to: Golf Summit of Washington

2 2 NGF: Then and Now Golf Business Trends 2012 Opportunity for Growth

3 NGF: Then and Now

4 4 NGF at 77 Herb and Joe Graffis Golfdom – Est. 1927Golfing – Est. 1933 Founding Members: Wilson Spalding MacGregor H&B Worthington Ball U.S. Rubber NGF Publication – Feb. 1955

5 5 NGF Today 3,500 Members Daily Fee & Municipal Golf Courses Private Clubs Management companies Golf businesses (equipment manufacturers, turf products, associations, etc.) NGF Board of Directors

6 6 Contributing to the Growth of Golf Industry Research & Strategic Perspective Conferences & Education Support for Golf’s Major Initiatives & Associations GOLF 2.0

7 7 NGF Facility Membership Only $225/year We want YOU!

8 Golf Business Trends 2012

9 9 Rounds Played

10 10 Rounds Played – 2012 YTD (Up 5.7% Nationally) +2.0% or higher +1.9% to -1.9% -2.0% or lower (% Change from previous year through December) New England (+3.2%) Mid Atlantic (+10.1%) South Atlantic (+2.4%) South Central (+5.0%) Pacific (+1.6%) Mountain (+7.0%) West N Central (+7.6%) East N Central (+10.8%) Source: Golf Datatech National Rounds Played Report in cooperation with PGA Performance Trak and the NGF. Based on a sample of approximately 4,000 reporting facilities

11 11 Rounds Played – 2012 YTD (Public Facility Concentration 2012 U.S.) Mid Atlantic (+10.1%) West N Central (+7.6%) East N Central (+10.8%) Source: Golf Datatech National Rounds Played Report and NGF golf facility database. (The highlighted area represents 47% of the nation’s public golf facilities. Rounds are up 9% in this part of the country.

12 12 Factors Underlying Jump in Rounds Weather! PGA Performance Trak reports playable days up over 6.5% nationally Consumer Confidence and Spending Consumer confidence & spending have been gradually rising as the recession driven “hunker down” mentality starts to fade

13 13 Rounds Volume Source: Golf Datatech National Rounds Played Report % Change Year Over Year 5.7%

14 14 Golf Participation

15 15 Short Term Participant Trend Participants ( MM ) 30.0 29.8 29.5 28.6 27.1 26.1 25.7 44% 56% Source: NGF golf participation study

16 16 Golf Course Development

17 17 Number of facilities Source: NGF Growth of Golf Facilities Private Daily Fee Municipal

18 18 Net Change in Supply Net Change = new course openings minus permanent closures (18HEQ), not factoring in courses closing for, or reopening from, renovations Source: NGF Facility Tracking

19 International Golf Course Supply 199 Golfing Countries North America 18,410 54% TOTAL 33,331 South America 603 2% Oceania 2,014 6% Asia 4,425 13% Europe 7,014 21% Africa 865 3%

20 20 Looking Ahead

21 21 Consumer Confidence Index Source: The Conference Board through January 2013 Index currently stands at 58.6 90 = Normal

22 22 Source: S&P 500 / Case-Shiller Recessionary Impact on Net Worth S&P 500 and Case-Shiller Home Value Indices S&P 500 Index (year 2000 as 100) Case-Shiller Home Value Index (year 2000 as 100)

23 23 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis – Updated as of Dec. 2012 Consumer Spending Improving Real Personal Consumption Expenditure Index [Index numbers, 2005=100] Seasonally adjusted

24 The Opportunity For Growth - Latent Demand - Retention - Building Commitment

25 25 Definition: People who express an interest in playing golf, but have not yet started. Latent Demand Source: NGF/Synovate HOW INTERESTED: Very 6 MM Somewhat19 MM A Little47 MM Percent of non-golfing population over age 6 Q: How interested are you in playing golf now?

26 26 Latent Demand Segments Source: NGF/Synovate Beginners (Never Played) Those With Some Experience (Never Committed) 1 Former Committed Golfers 2 (1) Classified themselves as “Not” or “OK” (2) Classified themselves as “Fun”, “Hooked” or “Nut” 12 9 4 25 Latent Very/Somewhat Interested 47% 37% 16% 100% Percent Of Latent

27 27 Demographics of Latent Demand Source: NGF/Synovate Golf’s latent demand skews: Female (48% versus 19% of all golfers) Average Income <$50K (44% versus 23% of all golfers) Younger – Under 30 (43% versus 28% of all golfers)

28 28 What’s Stopping Them from Playing Source: NGF/Synovate Main reasons they haven’t started playing golf yet/again *NOTE: Asked only of those who have never played golf I’m concerned about the cost Not enough time – I’m pretty busy right now Not really sure how to get started* There’s nothing stopping me – haven’t gotten around to it I don’t have anyone to play with Nobody has suggested it or invited me

29 29 Lapsed Participants Source: NGF/Synovate Definition: People age 18-69 who have not played in the past two years, but played at some point in the past Lapsed Participants 21.5 Million Lifetime golf experience of Nots and OKs: Played 1-2: 31% Played 3-9: 42% Played 10+: 27%

30 30 Demographics of Lapsed Participants Source: NGF/Synovate Lapsed participants skew: Female (41% versus 19% of all golfers) Average Income <$50K (38% versus 23% of all golfers)

31 31 What drove them away? Source: NGF/Synovate Difficulty Embarrassment Stuffiness Intimidation Slow play Rude golfers Aside from “time” and “money” (both of which continue to be cited as the first and second reason respectively), here are the main issues that drive participants away:

32 Understanding Commitment to Golf From the “Nuts” to the “Nots”

33 33 *Average among those who keep score (79% of occasional; 95% of core) Source: NGF/Synovate 25.7 Million Golfers 25.7 Million Golfers 14.4 M CORE (8+ Rounds) 14.4 M CORE (8+ Rounds) 11.3 M OCCASIONAL (1-7 Rounds) 11.3 M OCCASIONAL (1-7 Rounds) 6% of Rounds 7% of Spend 94% of Rounds 93% of Spend Traditional View

34 34 I’m a “golf nut,” I love the game and it’s my favorite activity I’m “hooked,” it’s one of my favorite things to do I’m a “casual” golfer – it’s one of several ways I like to spend my recreational time Golf is OK, but I most often choose to do something else with my recreational time I don’t really consider myself a golfer, I play rarely and usually only at the urging of others Commitment Levels NUTS HOOKED CASUAL FRINGE NOTS

35 35 Source: NGF/Synovate 25.7 Million Golfers 25.7 Million Golfers Impact of Commitment NOTSFRINGECASUALHOOKEDNUTS Golfers (MM)2.33.311.36.22.6 Rounds2%4%29%41%24% Spend3% 32%40%22% Rounds/Year35112941 Avg Score107 1039594 Retention Likelihood* 38%73%93%98%97% * Percent who say they will be playing in 2 years (Top 2 Box) unless physically unable

36 36 Source: NGF/Synovate Frequency vs. Commitment Segments Commitment Category CORE (8+ Rounds) CORE (8+ Rounds) OCCASIONAL (1-7 Rounds) OCCASIONAL (1-7 Rounds) Commitment Category Casual Fringe

37 37 Attraction to the Game Source: NGF/Synovate % mentioned as “one of the main reasons I like golf” Reasons golfers like golf:

38 38 Demographics Source: NGF/Synovate

39 39 Completely Agree The Underpinnings of Commitment Source: NGF/Synovate Correlation (r) (with Commitment).46.42 (5 on a 5 point scale) Hooked Casual Fringe COMPETENCE COMFORT

40 40

41 41 Competence & Comfort Lead to Retention “Comfort” Index by Retention Likelihood* * Likelihood to be playing 2 years from now Competence/Comfort factors scored and indexed to Hooked Golfers (100) Source: NGF/Synovate

42 42 Could cause them to “walk” from your COURSE Embarrassment Intimidation Stuffiness Rude golfers What Drives People Away? Slow play Rude golfers Impolite staff Stuffiness Slow play Rude golfers Embarrassment Stuffiness Could cause them to “walk” from the GAME Source: NGF/Synovate NOT & FRINGE CASUAL HOOKED & NUTS Probably reducing frequency

43 43 It Comes Down to Having Fun Q. All things considered, how much FUN is golf for you? (0-10 Scale; 10 = Really Fun) FUN COMMITMENT % Top 3 Box (8-10) Source: NGF/Synovate

44 44 … and Perceiving Value Fun Rating Value Rating Source: NGF/Synovate

45 45 The Equation IFF = C ANDC = PV THENF = PV ERGOF x PV = C 2 F = Fun C = Commitment PV = Perceived Value

46 46 Commitment = Prioritization COMMITMENT AVERAGE Avg. Income $73K$92K $86K$84K$88K Source: NGF/Synovate

47 47 Key Findings More committed golfers than implied by core and occasional golfer segmentation Plenty of latent demand Deepen engagement by:  Increasing competence and managing expectations  Increasing comfort around the course and other golfers More FUN, leads to deeper commitment, increased retention, higher perceived value, rounds and spending Time and money are not the problem!

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