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28-4-2015 Improved disaster management with use of Statistics Netherlands Data Jos Kuilboer.

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Presentation on theme: "28-4-2015 Improved disaster management with use of Statistics Netherlands Data Jos Kuilboer."— Presentation transcript:

1 Improved disaster management with use of Statistics Netherlands Data Jos Kuilboer

2 2 Goal Quantitatively and Qualitatively optimize and enhance the current flood management in The Netherlands by use of register data.

3 3 1. Introduction 1.Introduction 2.Models characteristics 3.Stakeholders 4.SN data 5.Newly developed framework 6.Model, test-case 7.Conclusions and Recommendations

4 4 New Orleans 2005

5 5 Dutch Situation Rising sea level; Increasing river discharges; Subsidence; Increasing pressure on Dutch Delta; More than 50% of the Dutch population lives below sea level; 70% of the gross national income is earned below sea level. Importance of detailed flood management

6 6 How can register data form an additional value in the field of flood risk management, and in what way can this be modeled? Research question

7 7 2. Models 1.Introduction 2.Model characteristics 3.Stakeholders 4.SN data 5.Newly developed framework 6.Model, test-case 7.Conclusions and Recommendations

8 8 Characteristics/ focus Damage categories Pricing TangibleIntangible Damage type Direct Indirect

9 9 Characteristics/ focus Damage calculation using “postcode level”

10 10 Characteristics/ focus Damage calculations using object data

11 11 Characteristics/ focus Scale level Macro Meso Micro Preferred scale level; Research area; Homogeneity of ground use; Included number of parameters. Micro

12 12 Models Challenges for future research and use International models Inclusion of non-monetary damage parameters; Damage interpretation in time; Dutch situation in detail Inclusion of object databases; Increased level of detail; Update databases; Inclusion of evacuation aid, social disruption, ecologics and cultural damage.

13 13 3. Stakeholders 1.Introduction 2.Model characteristics 3.Stakeholders 4.SN data 5.Newly developed framework 6.Model, test-case 7.Conclusions and Recommendations

14 14 Stakeholders A broad range of different stakeholders Stakeholders Fire brigade; Municipality; First aid teams; Ministries; Police; Safety regions; Water boards

15 15 Stakeholders/ focus Challenges for future use Challenges/ focus Detailed information supply; Demographic information; Information on pollution sources; Increased level of detail; Updating databases; Information supply per moment in time.

16 16 4. Statistics Netherlands data 1.Introduction 2.Model characteristics 3.Stakeholders 4.SN data 5.Newly developed framework 6.Model, test-case 7.Conclusions and Recommendations

17 17 CBS data 14 applicable databases; Over 300 parameters; 4 themes: Cultural damage; Ecologic damage; Evacuation and emergency aid; Public services. SN data Overview of applicable SN databases

18 18 How can register data form an additional value in the field of flood risk management, and in what way can this be modeled?

19 19 5. Newly developed framework 1.Introduction 2.Models 3.Stakeholders 4.SN data 5.Newly developed framework 6.Model, test-case 7.Conclusions and Recommendations

20 20 Newly developed framework Based on safety chain RisicomanagementCrisismanagement Pro-actiePreventiePreparatieReactieHerstel RisicomanagementCrisismanagement Pro-actiePreventiePreparatieReactieHerstel RisicomanagementCrisismanagement Pro-actiePreventiePreparatieReactieHerstel RisicomanagementCrisismanagement Pro-actiePreventiePreparatieReactieHerstel RisicomanagementCrisismanagement Pro-actiePreventiePreparatieReactieHerstel RisicomanagementCrisismanagement Pro-actionPrevention Preparation ReactionRecovery

21 21 Newly developed framework Result RisicomanagementCrisismanagement Pro- action PreventionPreparationReactionRecovery First aid team Evacuation of less able of evacuating Zorgatlas Primary schools

22 22 6. Model, test-case 1.Introduction 2.Models 3.Stakeholders 4.SN data 5.Newly developed framework 6.Model, test-case 7.Conclusions and Recommendations

23 23 Model Newly developed flood risk model Goal Point out qualitative and quantitative advantages of using register data within flood management. Approach Develop model; Test-case focused on evacuation management.

24 24 Model Location test-case

25 25 Structuur van model Model

26 26 Test-case: Bijlmermeer polder Test-case: 8 polders; hectare; residents; Belt system: -0.4 m NAP; Polder: -6.0 m NAP; High diversity of vulnerable objects; Densely populated [7 000 residents/km 2 ]; Sparsely populated[18 residents/km 2 ]. Model

27 27 Overview of simulated scenarios Quantitative: Secondary dike breach for densely populated areas (small postcode areas); Secondary dike breach for sparsely populated area (large postcode areas). Qualitative: Vulnerable objects in time. Model

28 28 Dike breach for densely populated area Model

29 29 Affected population in place and time Model

30 30 Quantitative results: dike breach for densely populated area Model Flooded population in time Affected residents [-] Time [hours]

31 31 Quantitative results: dike breach for sparsely populated area Model Getroffen bevolking in de tijdFlooded population in time Affeted resident in time [-] Time [hours]

32 32 Verklaring resultaten Model

33 33 Quantitative results: vulnerable objects in time Model Flooded primary schools in time for densely populated area Flooded primary schools [-] Time [hours]

34 34 Flooded primary schools in time Model

35 35 How can register data form an additional value in the field of flood risk management, and in what way can this be modeled?

36 36 7. Conclusions and Recommendations 1.Introduction 2.Models 3.Stakeholders 4.SN data 5.Newly developed framework 6.Model, test-case 7.Conclusions and Recommendations

37 37 Conclusions [1/2] Application of register data: Increased level of detail; Vulnerable objects; Flooded risks in time; Taylor made solutions; Yearly updates of databases. Qualitative advantages of using register data

38 38 Conclusions [2/2] Quantitative advantages of using register data Applications of register data: Object databases; Small scale flooding; Sparsely populated areas; Enhanced capacity predicting flood risks.

39 39 Recommendations Application of SN data Preventive evacuation; Mobility residents; Z-component; Compute all possible scenarios in advance; Online publications for selected users; Stimulate use of object data within SN; Elaborate model for multiple damage scenarios; Multidisciplinary approach. Using SN data within flood management

40 40 Questions? Contact:


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