Presentation on theme: "Gordon Wilson Group Managing Director Welcome to our Life & Pensions Executive Dinner Financial Services Forum Guest Speaker – David Smith – “Back from."— Presentation transcript:
Gordon Wilson Group Managing Director Welcome to our Life & Pensions Executive Dinner Financial Services Forum Guest Speaker – David Smith – “Back from the Future”
Jon May Head of Sales, Financial Services Welcome to our Life & Pensions Executive Dinner Financial Services Forum
Legacy pensions audit underway SOLVENCY II RDR impact now clear Pension freedoms and choice Mobile apps overtake PC internet usage “ Annuity sales plans have potential ” Providers grapple with charge cap and AMD ban Group risk experts welcome Fit For Work launch TPR slams providers masquerading as master trusts Webb wants bulk transfers from high charging plans
Will Collective DC fly? Bulk annuities take off Providers go direct Technology drives customer engagement Providers face AE capacity crunch Pot Follows Member goes ahead Are Lifestyle Funds dead? Webb backs pension passport plans Insurers slammed over pension wake-up packs UK life and pensions industry hit by drop in annuities sales Merger creates legacy issues
Software Solutions new world product propositions retirement income innovation worksite deliveryheritage transformation digitally enabled customer centric omni-channel straight through processing workflow driven
Guest Speaker Back from the Future Introducing David Smith Chief Executive Global Futures and Foresight A unique insight into the future and how to prepare for it
Global Futures & Foresight Data Processing "I have travelled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won't last out the year." The editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall, 1957.
Global Futures & Foresight... and the telephone “The 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.” Western Union internal memo, 1876. Over 1.2 billion telephone lines Over 7 billion mobiles
Global Futures & Foresight Nokia was a phone company in a world that stopped buying phones. http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/09/why-nokia-died-nobody-buys-phones-anymore/279337/ We now buy small computers that also make calls.
Global Futures & Foresight Innovation 48 Years 1810 1858 Ezra Warner of Waterbury, Connecticut patented the first can opener
Global Futures & Foresight With change comes risk Root causes of declines in public companies’ value: 60% strategic risks. 30% operational risks. 10% financial risks. Source: Society of Actuaries (2013) : Enterprise Risk Management: Looking Forward "the assumptions on which the organization has been built and is being run no longer fit reality.“ Peter Drucker
Global Futures & Foresight 1.Globalization 2.Technology 3.Environment 4.Changes in work 5.Demographics & people 6.Consumption Mega trends http://csr-news.net/main/2008/08/04/megatrends-and-the-future-of-corporate-social-responsibility/
Global Futures & Foresight www.watchblog.comSource: Population Research Bureau www.prb.org The global population is expected to rise from 6.5bn in 2005 to 7.7bn in 2020 and 9.6bn in 2050 Global population growth
Global Futures & Foresight “The size of the world economy will triple over the next four decades as emerging- market economies wield increasing power” “World GDP to double within two decades”
Global Futures & Foresight Emerging global economic growth 70% from emerging economies - 2030. 6/10 fastest growing economies are African. By 2020 - Asean economy doubles. China – No.2 insurance market in 10 yrs. –5 of top 10 insurance growth markets in APAC in P&C and Life. http://www.standardchartered.com/en/news-and-media/news/global/2013-11-06-super-cycle-EM-growth-is-key.html http://www.londonlovesbusiness.com/business-news/exports/daniel-peters-only-one-in-five-uk-smes-export-we-must-increase-that-number/6011.article http://www.economist.com/node/17677746 “the rise of emerging markets is forcing insurers to re-think their current business models...’
Global Futures & Foresight ‘Middle Class’ consumption 100 million becoming ‘Middle Class’ every year
Global Futures & Foresight Global ageing by 2050 Over 60’s: –Mature economies - 22% to 33%. –Developing world - 9% to 20%. 25% of China’s people over 65. Japan alone has 30% over 60. –64 countries will have by 2050. http://info.cancerresearchuk.org/cancerstats/world/demographics/demographic-facts-for-the-world-population http://www.global-ageing.eu/Bilder/collage.png http://www.unescap.org/sdd/issues/ageing/ageing.asp http://www.aicpa.org/RESEARCH/CPAHORIZONS2025/GLOBALFORCES/SOCIALANDHUMANRESOURCE/Pages/default.aspx By the time a person born today is 80, their life expectancy would have gone well past 110.
Global Futures & Foresight And we’re living longer lives Human life expectancies have the potential to reach 500 or possibly even 1000. “In the near future, the next two to four decades, the disease of ageing will be cured.” Dr. Aubrey de Grey B.A., M.A. and Ph.D., University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK. Born 20 th April 1963 Robert A. Freitas Jr. is Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Molecular Manufacturing AGEING CURED
Global Futures & Foresight Health and wellness By 2030 Overweight & obese doubles to 3.3bn. Non-communicable diseases to cost £29tn. Cancer rates jump 75%. http://www.weforum.org/news/non-communicable-diseases-cost-47-trillion-2030-new-study-released-todayhttp://www.weforum.org/news/non-communicable-diseases-cost-47-trillion-2030-new-study-released-today http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21568065-world-getting-wider- says-charlotte-howard-what-can-be-done-about-it-big http://www.webmd.com/cancer/news/20120531/global-cancer-rates-set-to-soar-by-2030http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21568065-world-getting-wider- says-charlotte-howard-what-can-be-done-about-it-bighttp://www.webmd.com/cancer/news/20120531/global-cancer-rates-set-to-soar-by-2030 We are living longer but not necessarily healthier.
Global Futures & Foresight HEALTHCARE http://www.pdesigni.com/news/show/1468
Global Futures & Foresight Getting older 10m people over 65 years. –One in 6 people. –By 2030 5½m more +65’s. –By 2050 one in four. By 2020 –3m more over 70. –36% of workers over 50. http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/key-issues-for-the-new-parliament/value-for-money-in-public-services/the-ageing-population/ http://www.hrreview.co.uk/hr-news/diversity-equality/cipd-urges-employers-to-embrace-ageing-workforce/40366 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/9612708/One-in-four-will-retire-at-70-by-2028.html http://www.hrmagazine.co.uk/hro/news/1075369/more-workers-continue-employment-past-age-65 http://cdni.wired.co.uk/620x413/o_r/oldpeople.jpg In 2015, those aged 40+ will outnumber under-40s
Global Futures & Foresight UK Lifestyles 95% not even doing minimum amount of physical activity. Sedentary lifestyles leads to more than 40 chronic diseases. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-11442101 http://www.nhs.uk/news/2011/08August/Pages/half-of-uk-predicted-to-be-obese-by-2030.aspx http://www.breathslim.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/sedentary-life.jpg Sedentary leisure time is expected to rise in the UK by 52 hours per week by 2030.
Global Futures & Foresight Health outlook 15m live with a long-term condition. 18m within 20 years. http://medicalxpress.com/news/2013-02-exposure-pesticides-food-air-diabetes.html http://www.theguardian.com/society/2012/oct/02/diabetes-charity-warns-health-calamity?newsfeed=true http://www.fitforworkeurope.eu/Downloads/uk/Fit_for_Work_WEB.pdf http://www.mondolithic.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/Baseline-Magazine-Cover-UK-Health.jpg By 2030 one in two UK workers could have a long-term condition.
Global Futures & Foresight REDEFINING LATER LIFE
Global Futures & Foresight @65 More than 1,700 British people reach 65 every day. 10.3m over 65. 15.5m by 2030. Source: The TUC http://www.cii.co.uk/knowledge/insurance-institute-of-london/articles/pensions-101/31253 http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/key-issues-for-the-new-parliament/value-for-money-in-public-services/the-ageing-population/ 35% of UK workers not contributing to any savings.
Global Futures & Foresight Silver wealth UK 2002-2012, spending by over-50s grew by £100bn. +50’s control 80% of wealth. 60s own 25% (£993bn) of all property wealth. http://www.ey.com/UK/en/Industries/Financial-Services/Insurance/Beyond-2020---Forces-shaping-the-industry http://www.campaignlive.co.uk/news/1283323/ http://www.lv.com/adviser/working-with-lv/news_detail/?articleid=3238383 http://www.english.rfi.fr/sites/english.filesrfi/imagecache/rfi_43_large/sites/images.rfi.fr/files/aef_image/old-people-actives.jpg
Global Futures & Foresight Ageing workforce 2020: 36% of UK working pop’n will be over 50. 20% don't expect to retire. 41% take a part-time job in retirement to make up for the shortfall in their savings. http://www.hrmagazine.co.uk/hro/news/1075224/all-play-british-workers-dont-plan-reach-retirement-age http://www.hrreview.co.uk/hr-news/diversity-equality/cipd-urges-employers-to-embrace-ageing-workforce/40366 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/9612708/One-in-four-will-retire-at-70-by-2028.html http://www.hrmagazine.co.uk/hro/news/1075369/more-workers-continue-employment-past-age-65 http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01802/retirement_1802700b.jpg 2028: 1 in 4 UK employees could work until they’re 70. http://www.aviva.com/research-and-discussion/consumer-attitude-survey-2014/
Global Futures & Foresight Porter’s 5 Forces Changed Dynamics
Global Futures & Foresight Home equity release 2013, older homeowners raised £1bn in home equity release. –60% for home and garden improvements. –21% to clear debt. –Car upgrades, holidays and helping younger relatives financially also feature. http://www.express.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/455422/The-key-to-unlock-a-brighter-future-Look-at-the-rise-of-equity-release http://www.cii.co.uk/media/5092528/beyond_2020_life__pensions_and_health_insurance.pdf http://moneylendingexpert.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/equity-release-house-squeeze.jpg
Global Futures & Foresight Reconfiguring the competition 30% believe new emerging market insurers will move into the developed world to become global insurers. 28% see truly global markets. PWC http://www.pwc.com/en_GX/gx/insurance/pdf/insurance-2020-turning-change-into-opportunity.pdf http://www.pwc.com/us/en/press-releases/2012/2012-is-the-year-of-the-customer.jhtml http://www.trimsunlimited.com/global-markets.php “the rise of emerging markets is forcing insurers to re-think their current business models...’
Global Futures & Foresight Emerging competition 89% of insurers say competition intensifies in distribution in 3 years. 64% say from non-insurance players - Google, Amazon, Walmart… http://newsroom.accenture.com/news/insurance-sold-through-digital-channels-to-reach-25-billion-annually-in-europe-according-to-accenture- study.htm?c=glb_accglbtwt_10000945&n=smc_0713#sf18286796 http://www.netrate.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Enhanced-Insurer-Agent-Connectivity-in-Insurance-Distribution-Chain.jpg
Global Futures & Foresight The industry is not delivering Customers trust L&P providers least among all financial companies. – Only 31% of L&P customers can manage their policy the way they want. – Only 38% say their L&P provider offers value for money – Only 37% say their insurer provides clear and transparent comms. –39% products complicated & confusing. http://juliayoga324.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/img_3277.png https://www.bcgperspectives.com/content/articles/insurance_financial_institutions_improve_p_c_profitability_premium_growth/ http://insuranceblog.accenture.com/getting-to-grips-with-the-switching-economy-in-insurance/?cid=fs_insblogfy14_10000255_smc_0913#sf22269992 http://newsroom.accenture.com/news/uk-life-insurance-customers-prefer-buying-policies-online-but-personal-touch-is-important-for-advice-according-to-accenture-research.htm Too complicated and confusing, difficult to engage with and not great value for money
Global Futures & Foresight Reorientated business models From ‘inside-out’ to ‘outside-in.’ A shift to a world of: –Web-based. –Decentralised. –Front-office-oriented. –Mobile. –Touch-screen. –Consumer-oriented. –Co-creation http://www.insurancetech.com/management-strategies/insurance-companies-embrace-emerging-tec/232200668 http://www.theharteofmarketing.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/customer-centric-outside-in-reorg-harte.jpg L&P providers face lower levels of engagement and satisfaction than even banks (44% vs. 60%)
Global Futures & Foresight Value shifting outside the enterprise Organizations outnumbered by the resources provided by their network. Business value from the social world. –Crowdsourcing. –Open and social supply chains. –Open innovation. –Co-creation. –Social media marketing. Sloan Review (MIT) 80% of executives worldwide say enterprise- wide collaboration is the key to success. Global Survey Enterprise Collaboration
Global Futures & Foresight Change is coming TECHNOLOGY & COMMUNICATIONS
Global Futures & Foresight Three Horizons Horizon 1 Core Horizon 2 New Horizon 3 Out there Manager Leader Entrepreneur Point of greatest confusion Extend and defendBuild emerging businesses Create viable options In 2008
Global Futures & Foresight Horizon 1 Technologies maturing now Mobile Consumerisation of I.T. (BYOD) Big data and analytics Social Cloud Internet of Things Telematics Wearables Artificial intelligence Augmented reality Avatars
Global Futures & Foresight Horizon 2 Technologies coming within 10 years Holographics 3D printing Automation Unmanned Autonomous Vehicles Instant language translation Cognitive computing Haptic technology Electronic nose RNA based therapeutics Vocal health diagnostics via smartphone Next generation neuropharmacology
Global Futures & Foresight Horizon 3 Emerging technologies of 10yrs+ Quantum computing Prescriptive analytics Smart dust Programmable material Neuroprosthetics Brain-to-computer interfaces Brain-to-brain interfaces Geoengineering Microscale 3D printing Anti ageing interventions
Global Futures & Foresight First we do things differently Then we do different things
Global Futures & Foresight Mobile to 2018 £29. 99 Ubislate 7Ci http://www.cisco.com/c/en/us/solutions/collateral/service-provider/visual-networking-index-vni/VNI-Forecast_QA.html/index.html telephone – computer - sensor Mobile data traffic growth 61% cagr. 66% of devices – smartphones. Speeds increase 2.6-fold. 15.9 Exabyte's/month. 69% video. Functions: –Payments –Environment –Travel –Health & wellness –Context etc. Mobile will remake insurance business models by 2020
Global Futures & Foresight Wearables $19bn revenue by 2018. – $1.4bn in 2013. 6% of businesses given these to their staff... – Next logical step. 21% already wear a device or use App. to track health. http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-57607524-94/wearable-tech-revenue-to-hit-$19b-by-2018/ http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23579404 http://www.idgconnect.com/blog-abstract/3419/how-will-wearable-technology-impact-business-world ‘For businesses - implications for systems development, insight and analytics, leadership & competitive advantage.’ http://s3files.core77.com/blog/images/2013/04/where-wearable-tech.jpg
Global Futures & Foresight The mobile consumer in context Where am I? What am I doing? Who’s around me? Where am I going? What would help me? –Where –What –Who
Global Futures & Foresight Social networks Changed the way we live. Social and political processes. Change the way we work. Global Work Swarms New Management processes. Collaborate around problems. Faster and more creative solutions. The post e-mail era Adds $1.3tn per year – 66% through collaboration Social Media http://www.newmediatrendwatch.com/world-overview/137-social-networking-and-ugc McKinsey Global Institute pdf, July 2012, ‘The Social Economy: Unlocking value and productivity through social technologies.’ 20-25% improvement in productivity of knowledge workers.
Global Futures & Foresight Internet of ‘Things’ By 2020 One trillion sensors embedded in humans and machines. We will each own 50 internet connected devices. http://www.industrytap.com/the-hybird-age/3651 99.4% of the 1.5 trillion physical objects in the world are still unconnected.
Global Futures & Foresight Big data Every day we create 2.5 quintillion bytes of data: –A new Google every 4 days. Google: 6bn daily searches and indexing of over 50bn web pages (2013). http://techcrunch.com/2014/08/10/big-data-bound-to-get-really-really-big-with-the-internet-of-things/ http://www.big4.com/big4-thought-leader-interviews/industrial-internet-strategy-must-urgently-embrace-big-data-analytics-new-survey-ge-accenture/?sf32764894=1 http://data.bigdatastartups.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/HiRes-221.jpg
Global Futures & Foresight Predictive analytics 41% of FS org’s say predictive analytics is more about minimising risk than exploiting opportunities: SAP http://www.bankingtech.com/203462/predicting-the-future-in-financial-services/ 73% say it would help them to make better offers to their customers. ‘Life companies have been shockingly bad at using customer data effectively.’ Phil Loney, Group Chief Executive, Royal London Group.
Global Futures & Foresight Artificial Intelligence (AI) - we will interact with it like humans. e-technology advanced: –Fewer human interactions –More strategic focus. Face & voice recognition that identifies emotional changes. Holographic by 2015 Haptic by 2020 Source: http://www.supplymanagement.co.uk/EDIT/Featured_articles_item.asp?id=16394http://www.supplymanagement.co.uk/EDIT/Featured_articles_item.asp?id=16394 Engaging with technology
Global Futures & Foresight Avatars Avatars are evolving into sophisticated computer generated images. – C ould monitor heart rate and blood pressure as well as provide medication reminders. http://www.redorbit.com/media/uploads/2013/03/152946044-617x416.jpg http://metro.co.uk/2014/03/03/future-of-healthcare-avatars-could-look-after-the-elderly-in-their-own-homes-4394762/
Global Futures & Foresight Engaged through technology By 2019 3D virtual reality displays. Embedded in glasses/contact lenses. Primary interfaces to connect with other people, computers, the Web and virtual reality. Kurzweil Linking our senses with other people’s senses or machines.
Global Futures & Foresight Cognitive computing Already improved doctor accuracy in diagnosing lung cancer by 40%. http://cdn.nextgov.com/media/img/upload/2013/03/21/032113chipNG/nextgov-medium.jpg http://www.industrytap.com/supercomputer-watson-increasing-medial-diagnoses-accuracy/1314 Watson
Global Futures & Foresight Genomics £125 '23andMe' test can now be used in the UK with caution. The price for genome sequencing soon £66 ($100). NIB offer half-price genome scans from personal genomics. http://science.slashdot.org/story/12/05/28/1849248/the-race-to-1000-human-genome-sequencing http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2010/02/australian-insurance-company-offers-discounted-genome-scans-to-customers-read-the-fine-print/ http://bgiamericas.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Cropped-DNA-01-1024x993.jpg
Global Futures & Foresight Gamification Over 50% of firms will gamify their innovation processes this year. Increasing public participation in co- creating products and services. http://mashable.com/2011/07/28/gamification/ http://www.yourcarma.com.au/article/News/Speed-Camera-Lottery.aspx?id=59
Global Futures & Foresight Pace of change 40% worry that ‘...their organisations will be unable to keep up with technology change and will lose their competitive edge.’ http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-23/davos-stalked-by-tech-disruption-as-intel-to-wal-mart-challenged.html http://venturebeat.com/2014/04/05/these-three-trends-will-transform-how-employees-use-their-phones/ http://www.visualphotos.com/photo/2x4577511/fast_moving_robot_technology_BLD017028.jpg Technology is moving between 3-5 times faster than management.
Global Futures & Foresight So much change New thinking New culture New behaviours New partners New channels New insights and offers New customer engagement New technologies New business models
Global Futures & Foresight The future belongs to those who prepare for it today
Global Futures & Foresight If you want to get ahead – you need to look ahead +44 7932 408901 email@example.com Imagine it Thank you www.linkedin.com/in/dasmith www.thegff.com davidsmithgff gfftv http://elm.neworldiq.com Back from the Future The Future of L&P