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Www.rti.org 4/27/2015 Policy Roundtable 3: Risk Paramita Sinha (RTI International) Prepared for Estimating the Benefits of Homeland Security Policies September.

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Presentation on theme: "Www.rti.org 4/27/2015 Policy Roundtable 3: Risk Paramita Sinha (RTI International) Prepared for Estimating the Benefits of Homeland Security Policies September."— Presentation transcript:

1 4/27/2015 Policy Roundtable 3: Risk Paramita Sinha (RTI International) Prepared for Estimating the Benefits of Homeland Security Policies September 23 & 24, 2010 Funded by 1

2 4/27/2015 Examples: RIAs Final rule for WHTI Implemented in the Land Environment WHTI Implemented in the Sea Environment and Proposed Air/Sea Biometric Exit Project These are rules to help establish the identity of individuals entering the country more accurately and efficiently – these contribute to lower risks to security

3 4/27/2015 Benefits Section RIAs identifies following difficulties:  How to estimate baseline security risks  How to measure risk reductions  Hard to find estimates of WTP to reduce terrorist risk 3

4 4/27/2015  Moving forward, as we think through some of these problems, are there approaches that we can come up with?  What would be reasonable first steps?  Can we learn something by looking at the literature?  Can we learn something by looking at the RIAs?  What can we do bring them closer? 4

5 4/27/2015  Maybe we can start by systematically categorizing (or developing appropriate ranges) of  baseline risks  reduction in risks  trying to apply what is the most appropriate estimate of WTP measures to the context in question  Maybe possible to do this for some rules?  Maybe we do not need baseline risk in some cases if you assume that the value is constant over a certain range? 5 Some thoughts…..

6 4/27/2015 For example, can we do a literature search and come up with studies fitting into the appropriate cells? 6 High Baseline RiskLow Baseline Risk High Reduction in Risks Low Reduction in Risks

7 4/27/2015 Some ways to think about risk/architecture European perspective….  Tolerability of Risk framework  Multi Criteria Decision Analysis EPA…..  Risk Assessment/Risk Management -These may not necessarily the most relevant framework - Decide where you want to be in the future and move towards that 7

8 4/27/2015 Some interesting discussions we had on risk….  Think about interactions between different DHS policies to reduce “composite” risk  Endogenous risks – game theoretic approach (use of best response functions) as a framework to think about this?  How are people thinking about risks – Subjective vs. objective risks 8

9 4/27/2015 Recent economics literature deals with different ways to think about valuing risk  labels, perceptions and characteristics associated with risks that seem to matter (e.g. Alberini and Scasny)  does cause of death matter (e.g. Taylor and Kochi)  crime literature  risk perception literature gives some insights on risks with “dread” associated with them 9


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