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Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Global Health Odyssey Museum Tom Harkin Global Communications Center June 7-11, 2010 Teach Epidemiology Professional.

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Presentation on theme: "Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Global Health Odyssey Museum Tom Harkin Global Communications Center June 7-11, 2010 Teach Epidemiology Professional."— Presentation transcript:

1 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Global Health Odyssey Museum Tom Harkin Global Communications Center June 7-11, 2010 Teach Epidemiology Professional Development Workshop Day 4

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3 3 Teach Epidemiology

4 4 Enduring Epidemiological Understandings

5 5 Teach Epidemiology Enduring Epidemiological Understandings

6 6

7 7 Laboratory Teach Epidemiology Making Group Comparisons and Identifying Associations

8 8 Laboratory Teach Epidemiology Making Group Comparisons and Identifying Associations

9 9 Naturally occurring circumstances in which groups of people within a population have been exposed to different levels of the hypothesized cause of an outcome. Natural Experiment Teach Epidemiology Making Group Comparisons and Identifying Associations

10 10 An epidemiologic study of a natural experiment in which the investigator is not involved in the intervention other than to record, classify, count, and statistically analyze results. Observational Study Teach Epidemiology Making Group Comparisons and Identifying Associations

11 11 An epidemiologic experiment in which subjects are assigned into groups to receive or not receive a hypothesized beneficial intervention. Controlled Trial Teach Epidemiology Making Group Comparisons and Identifying Associations

12 12 Buprenorphine Buprenorphine will stop heroin addicts from using heroin. Teach Epidemiology Making Group Comparisons and Identifying Associations

13 13 Naturally occurring circumstances in which groups of people within a population have been exposed to different levels of the hypothesized cause of an outcome. Observational Study of a Natural Experiment Epidemiologic studies of natural experiments in which the investigator is not involved in the intervention other than to record, classify, count, and statistically analyze results. Teach Epidemiology Making Group Comparisons and Identifying Associations

14 14 Making Group Comparisons and Identifying Associations Teach Epidemiology

15 15 Making Group Comparisons and Identifying Associations Teach Epidemiology

16 16 Stephen Jay Gould (survivor of abdominal mesothelioma) Absolutely nothing in the available arsenal of anti-emetics worked at all. I was miserable and came to dread the frequent treatments with an almost perverse intensity. I had heard that marijuana often worked well against nausea. I was reluctant to try it because I had never smoked any substance habitually (and didn’t even know how to inhale). Moreover, I had tried marijuana twice (in the 1960s) … and had hated it …. Marijuana worked like a charm …. The sheer bliss of not experiencing nausea - and not having to fear it for all the days intervening between treatments - was the greatest boost I received in all my year of treatment, and surely the most important effect upon my eventual cure. Making Group Comparisons and Identifying Associations Teach Epidemiology

17 17 A particular or detached incident or fact of an interesting nature; a biographical incident or fragment; a single passage of private life. Anecdote Making Group Comparisons and Identifying Associations Teach Epidemiology

18 18 Science Transforming Anecdote to Science Making Group Comparisons and Identifying Associations Teach Epidemiology Anecdote

19 19 Time Healthy People - E Random Assignment E DZ Controlled Trial Time Healthy People - E E DZ Cohort Study Time Case-Control Study - DZ E E E E Time Cross-Sectional Study - E E DZ Making Group Comparisons and Identifying Associations Teach Epidemiology

20 20 Time Healthy People - E Random Assignment E DZ Controlled Trial Time Healthy People - E E DZ Cohort Study Time Case-Control Study - DZ E E E E Time Cross-Sectional Study - E E DZ d b c a Making Group Comparisons and Identifying Associations Teach Epidemiology

21 The goal of every epidemiological study is to harvest valid and precise information about the relationship between an exposure and a disease in a population. The various study designs merely represent different ways of harvesting this information. Essentials in Epidemiology in Public Health Ann Aschengrau and George R. Seage III Making Group Comparisons and Identifying Associations Teach Epidemiology

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25 25 Time Check 8:15 AM

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27 27 Teach Epidemiology

28 The Journey Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-6: The Journey

29 Analogy Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-6: The Journey

30 Epi Talk Study Design Epi Talk Procedures and methods, established beforehand, that are followed by the investigator conducting the study. Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-6: The Journey

31 Timing When are the passengers identified as exposed or unexposed? E When are the passengers identified as sick or not sick? DZ Timing When does the epidemiologist start to observe the journey? - Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-6: The Journey

32 Time E DZ Label the Train Tracks - Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-6: The Journey

33 Time Study Design: E DZ Label the Train Tracks - Controlled Trial Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-6: The Journey

34 Time Healthy People Controlled Trial Flow Diagram - Healthy People E Random Assignment E DZ Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-6: The Journey

35 Time Study Design: Label the Train Tracks Cohort Study Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-6: The Journey

36 Cohort Study Just as in the controlled trial, the epidemiologist is also on the train during the entire journey. But there is an important difference. The epidemiologist is not telling passengers what to do. Rather, the epidemiologist is just observing them and counting. Passengers are not being told to have or not have an exposure, they are just living their normal lives. The epidemiologist, on the ride for the whole journey, just keeps observing everyone’s exposures and whether or not they develop the disease during the journey. Label the Train Tracks Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-6: The Journey

37 Time E DZ Label the Train Tracks - Study Design: Cohort Study Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-6: The Journey

38 Time Healthy People Cohort Study Flow Diagram - Healthy People E E DZ Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-6: The Journey

39 Time Healthy People Cohort Study Flow Diagram - Healthy People E E DZ Controlled Trial Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-6: The Journey

40 Time Healthy People Cohort Study Flow Diagram - Healthy People E E DZ Controlled Trial Random Assignment Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-6: The Journey

41 Review Observational Studies Epi Talk Epidemiologic studies of natural experiments in which the investigator is not involved in the intervention other than to record, classify, count, and statistically analyze results. Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-6: The Journey

42 Time Label the Train Tracks Study Design: Case-Control Study Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-6: The Journey

43 The epidemiologist is not on the journey. Rather, the epidemiologist is waiting at the train station at the end of the journey. As passengers get off the train, the epidemiologist selects sick passengers for the case group and selects passengers who are similar but not sick for the control group. The epidemiologist then asks each person in the case group and control group questions about their exposures during the train ride. The epidemiologist relies on passengers’ memories of their exposures that occurred during the train ride. Label the Train Tracks Case-Control Study Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-6: The Journey

44 Time E DZ Label the Train Tracks - Study Design: Case-Control Study Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-6: The Journey

45 Case-Control Study Observational Study Flow Diagram Flow Diagram Time DZ - E E E E Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-6: The Journey

46 Time Label the Train Tracks Study Design: Cross-Sectional Study Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-6: The Journey

47 The epidemiologist, who has not been on the journey, stops the train somewhere during the trip (kind of like a train robbery) and takes a “snapshot” of all the passengers by asking them whether or not they have the exposure and whether or not they have the disease. Then the epidemiologist leaves the train and goes home to analyze the data from that particular day. The journey continues without the epidemiologist. Label the Train Tracks Cross-Sectional Study Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-6: The Journey

48 E DZ Time Label the Train Tracks - Study Design: Cross-Sectional Study Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-6: The Journey

49 Cross-Sectional Study Observational Study Flow Diagram Flow Diagram Time E E - DZ Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-6: The Journey

50 Epi Talk Controlled Trial Epi Talk An epidemiologic experiment in which subjects are assigned into groups to receive or not receive a hypothesized beneficial intervention. Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-6: The Journey

51 Epi Talk Cohort Study Epi Talk An analytical epidemiological study design in which the investigator selects a group of exposed individuals and a group of unexposed individuals and follows both groups to compare the frequency with which the disease occurs in each group. Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-6: The Journey

52 Epi Talk Case-Control Study Epi Talk An analytical epidemiological study design in which the investigator selects a group of individuals with a disease (cases) and a group of similar individuals without the disease (controls) and compares the frequency with which an exposure occurred in the cases versus the controls. Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-6: The Journey

53 Epi Talk Cross-Sectional Study Epi Talk An analytical epidemiological study design in which the investigator selects a group of individuals and determines the presence or absence of a disease and the presence or absence of an exposure at the same time. Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-6: The Journey

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55 Epi Team Challenge Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-7: Epi Team Challenge

56 Time Healthy People - E Random Assignment E DZ Controlled Trial Time Healthy People - E E DZ Cohort Study Time DZ E E E E Case-Control Study Time E E DZ Cross-Sectional Study DZ What’s My Design? Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-7: Epi Team Challenge

57 Epidemiologist is involved during the entire time from exposure to disease. Assign treatment and control groups. Follow through time and compare risk of disease in treatment group with risk of disease in control group. Give exposure to treatment group, but not control group. What’s My Design? Practice Clue Trial Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-7: Epi Team Challenge

58 Assign treatment and control groups. What’s My Design? Clue 1 Begin Epi Team Challenge Trial Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-7: Epi Team Challenge

59 Observational Study Flow Diagram DZ - E E E E Clue 2 Case-Control Study What’s My Design? Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-7: Epi Team Challenge

60 Observational Study Clue 3 What’s My Design? Cohort, Case-Control, and Cross-Sectional Studies Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-7: Epi Team Challenge

61 Follow through time and compare risk of disease in exposed group with risk of disease in the unexposed group. Clue 4 Trial and Cohort Study What’s My Design? Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-7: Epi Team Challenge

62 Follow through time and compare risk of disease in treatment group with risk of disease in control group. Give exposure to treatment group, but not control group. Clue 5 Trial What’s My Design? Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-7: Epi Team Challenge

63 Epidemiologist is involved during the entire time from exposure to disease. Clue 6 Trial and Cohort Study What’s My Design? Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-7: Epi Team Challenge

64 Select a group of people with disease and a similar group of people without disease. Clue 7 Case-Control Study What’s My Design? Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-7: Epi Team Challenge

65 Healthy People Flow Diagram - Healthy People E E Random Assignment Non-Observational Study Clue 8 Trial What’s My Design? Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-7: Epi Team Challenge

66 Observational Study Flow Diagram E E - DZ Clue 9 Cross Sectional Study What’s My Design? Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-7: Epi Team Challenge

67 Compare odds of exposure in the two groups. Clue 10 Case-Control Study What’s My Design? Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-7: Epi Team Challenge

68 Healthy People Flow Diagram - Healthy People E E DZ Random Assignment Clue 11 Trial What’s My Design? Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-7: Epi Team Challenge

69 Flow Diagram Clue 12 Cross Sectional Study What’s My Design? Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-7: Epi Team Challenge

70 Flow Diagram DZ Observational Study Clue 13 Cohort Study What’s My Design? Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-7: Epi Team Challenge

71 Ask each person about both exposure and disease at that point in time. What’s My Design? Clue 14 Cross Sectional Study Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-7: Epi Team Challenge

72 Ask both groups about their exposures in the past. What’s My Design? Clue 15 Case-Control Study Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-7: Epi Team Challenge

73 Healthy People Flow Diagram - Healthy People Random Assignment Clue 16 Trial What’s My Design? Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-7: Epi Team Challenge

74 Disease risk in exposed group is compared to disease risk in unexposed group. Clue 17 Trial, Cohort Study, and Cross Sectional Study What’s My Design? Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-7: Epi Team Challenge

75 Flow Diagram E E - DZ Clue 18 Cross Sectional Study What’s My Design? Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-7: Epi Team Challenge

76 Select a healthy study sample. Clue 19 Trial (?) and Cohort Study What’s My Design? Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-7: Epi Team Challenge

77 Observe who has and has not been exposed. Clue 20 Cohort and Cross-Sectional Studies What’s My Design? Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-7: Epi Team Challenge

78 Clue 21 Give exposure to treatment group, but not control group. Trial What’s My Design? Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-7: Epi Team Challenge

79 Healthy People Flow Diagram - Healthy People E E Observational Study Clue 22 Cohort Study What’s My Design? Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-7: Epi Team Challenge

80 Epidemiologist is involved after disease has occurred and relies on subjects’ memories to gather information about exposure. Clue 23 Case-Control Study What’s My Design? Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-7: Epi Team Challenge

81 Select a study sample. Clue 24 Trial, Cohort, Case-Control, and Cross Sectional Studies What’s My Design? Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-7: Epi Team Challenge

82 Healthy People Flow Diagram - Healthy People E E DZ Observational Study Clue 25 Cohort Study What’s My Design? Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-7: Epi Team Challenge

83 Epidemiologist gathers data only at that one point in time. Clue 26 Cross Sectional Study What’s My Design? Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-7: Epi Team Challenge

84 Flow Diagram DZ Clue 27 Trial and Cohort Study What’s My Design? Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-7: Epi Team Challenge

85 Follow through time and compare risk of disease in exposed group to risk of disease in unexposed group. Clue 28 Trial and Cohort Study What’s My Design? Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-7: Epi Team Challenge

86 Epidemiologist is involved during the entire time from exposure to disease. Clue 29 Trial and Cohort Study What’s My Design? Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-7: Epi Team Challenge

87 Flow Diagram E E DZ Clue 30 Cross Sectional Study What’s My Design? Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-7: Epi Team Challenge

88 Flow Diagram DZ - Clue 31 Case-Control Study What’s My Design? Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-7: Epi Team Challenge

89 Ask each person about both exposure and disease at that point in time. Epidemiologist gathers data only at that one point in time. Disease risk in exposed group is compared to disease risk in unexposed group. Select a study sample. Clue 32 Cross Sectional Study What’s My Design? Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-7: Epi Team Challenge

90 Epidemiologist is involved after disease has occurred and relies on subjects’ memories to gather information about exposure. Select a group of people with disease and a similar group of people without disease. Compare percent of exposed people in the two groups. Ask both groups about their exposures in the past. Case-Control Study Clue 33 What’s My Design? Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-7: Epi Team Challenge

91 Epidemiologist is involved during the entire time from exposure to disease. Select a healthy study sample. Follow through time and compare risk of disease in exposed group to risk of disease in unexposed group. Observe who has and has not been exposed. Cohort Study Clue 34 What’s My Design? Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-7: Epi Team Challenge

92 Epidemiologist is involved during the entire time from exposure to disease. Assign treatment and control groups. Follow through time and compare risk of disease in treatment group with risk of disease in control group. Give exposure to treatment group, but not control group. Trial Clue 35 What’s My Design? Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-7: Epi Team Challenge

93 End Epi Team Challenge What’s My Design? Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-7: Epi Team Challenge

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95 Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-8: Which Design Is Best? Which Design Is Best?

96 Cross-Sectional Study Case-Control Study Cohort Study Trial Main WeaknessesMain StrengthsStudy Designs Epi Team Challenge Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-8: Which Design Is Best?

97 Cross-Sectional Study Case-Control Study Cohort Study Trial Main WeaknessesMain StrengthsStudy Designs Cross- Sectional Cohort Case- Control Controlled Trial Epi Team Challenge Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-8: Which Design Is Best?

98 Cross-Sectional Study Case-Control Study Cohort Study Trial Main WeaknessesMain StrengthsStudy Designs Fastest Which study design is the fastest? Epi Team Challenge Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-8: Which Design Is Best?

99 Cross-Sectional Study Case-Control Study Cohort Study Trial Main WeaknessesMain StrengthsStudy Designs Fastest Time Consuming Which study designs are the most time consuming? Epi Team Challenge Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-8: Which Design Is Best?

100 Cross-Sectional Study Case-Control Study Cohort Study Trial Main WeaknessesMain StrengthsStudy Designs Fastest Time Consuming Most Scientifically Sound Which study design is the most scientifically sound? Time Consuming Epi Team Challenge Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-8: Which Design Is Best?

101 Cross-Sectional Study Case-Control Study Cohort Study Trial Main WeaknessesMain StrengthsStudy Designs Fastest Time Consuming Most Scientifically Sound Can Study Rare Diseases Which study design is best for studying rare diseases? Time Consuming Epi Team Challenge Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-8: Which Design Is Best?

102 Cross-Sectional Study Case-Control Study Cohort Study Trial Main WeaknessesMain StrengthsStudy Designs Fastest Time Consuming Most Scientifically Sound Possible Time-Order Confusion Can Study Rare Diseases Which study designs do not identify the time order of exposure and disease? Time Consuming Epi Team Challenge Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-8: Which Design Is Best?

103 Cross-Sectional Study Case-Control Study Cohort Study Trial Main WeaknessesMain StrengthsStudy Designs Fastest Time Consuming Least Confidence in Findings Most Scientifically Sound Possible Time-Order Confusion Can Study Rare Diseases Which study design gives the least confidence in findings? Time Consuming Epi Team Challenge Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-8: Which Design Is Best?

104 Cross-Sectional Study Case-Control Study Cohort Study Trial Main WeaknessesMain StrengthsStudy Designs Fastest Time Consuming Least Confidence in Findings Most Scientifically Sound Best Measure of Exposure Possible Time-Order Confusion Can Study Rare Diseases Which study design provides the best measure of exposure? Time Consuming Epi Team Challenge Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-8: Which Design Is Best?

105 Cross-Sectional Study Case-Control Study Cohort Study Trial Main WeaknessesMain StrengthsStudy Designs Fastest Time Consuming Least Confidence in Findings Most Scientifically Sound Best Measure of Exposure Possible Time-Order Confusion Can Study Rare Diseases Most Accurate Observational Study Which study design is the most accurate observational study? Time Consuming Epi Team Challenge Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-8: Which Design Is Best?

106 Cross-Sectional Study Case-Control Study Cohort Study Trial Main WeaknessesMain StrengthsStudy Designs Fastest Time Consuming Least Confidence in Findings Most Scientifically Sound Best Measure of Exposure Possible Time-Order Confusion Can Study Rare Diseases Least Expensive Most Accurate Observational Study Which study design is the least expensive? Time Consuming Epi Team Challenge Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-8: Which Design Is Best?

107 Cross-Sectional Study Case-Control Study Cohort Study Trial Main WeaknessesMain StrengthsStudy Designs Fastest Time Consuming Least Confidence in Findings Most Scientifically Sound Best Measure of Exposure Possible Time-Order Confusion Can Study Rare Diseases Least Expensive Unethical for Harmful Exposures Most Accurate Observational Study Which study design would be unethical for harmful exposures? Time Consuming Epi Team Challenge Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-8: Which Design Is Best?

108 Cross-Sectional Study Case-Control Study Cohort Study Trial Main WeaknessesMain StrengthsStudy Designs Fastest Time Consuming Least Confidence in Findings Most Scientifically Sound Best Measure of Exposure Possible Time-Order Confusion Can Study Rare Diseases Least Expensive Good Measure of Exposure Which study design provides a good measure of exposure? Most Accurate Observational Study Time Consuming Unethical for Harmful exposures Epi Team Challenge Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-8: Which Design Is Best?

109 Cross-Sectional Study Case-Control Study Cohort Study Trial Main WeaknessesMain StrengthsStudy Designs Fastest Time Consuming Least Confidence in Findings Most Scientifically Sound Best Measure of Exposure Possible Time-Order Confusion Can Study Rare Diseases Least Expensive Most Expensive Most Accurate Observational Study Which study designs are the most expensive? Good Measure of Exposure Time Consuming Unethical for Harmful exposures Epi Team Challenge Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-8: Which Design Is Best?

110 Cross-Sectional Study Case-Control Study Cohort Study Trial Main WeaknessesMain StrengthsStudy Designs Fastest Time Consuming Least Confidence in Findings Most Scientifically Sound Best Measure of Exposure Possible Time-Order Confusion Can Study Rare Diseases Least Expensive Relatively Less Expensive and Relatively Fast Most Accurate Observational Study Which study design is relatively less expensive and relatively fast? Time Consuming Unethical for Harmful exposures Most Expensive Good Measure of Exposure Epi Team Challenge Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-8: Which Design Is Best?

111 Cross-Sectional Study Case-Control Study Cohort Study Trial Main WeaknessesMain StrengthsStudy Designs Fastest Time Consuming Least Confidence in Findings Most Scientifically Sound Best Measure of Exposure Possible Time-Order Confusion Can Study Rare Diseases Least Expensive Relatively Less Expensive and Relatively Fast Possible Error in Recalling Past Exposures Most Accurate Observational Study Which study design creates the possibility of error in recalling past exposures? Time Consuming Unethical for Harmful exposures Most Expensive Good Measure of Exposure Epi Team Challenge Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-8: Which Design Is Best?

112 Cross-Sectional Study Case-Control Study Cohort Study Trial Main WeaknessesMain StrengthsStudy Designs Fastest Time Consuming Most Scientifically Sound Best Measure of Exposure Can Study Rare Diseases Least Expensive Relatively Less Expensive and Relatively Fast Possible Error in Recalling Exposures Most Accurate Observational Study Which Design Is Best? Time Consuming Unethical for Harmful exposures Most Expensive Possible Time-Order Confusion Least Confidence in Findings Good Measure of Exposure It depends …. Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-8: Which Design Is Best?

113 It depends on …. Regulations Time urgency How much is known about the association Money Whether the exposure is believed to be beneficial Detectives in the Classroom - Investigation 2-8: Which Design Is Best?

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115 DZ E E d b c a Flow Diagram 2x2 Table Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 2-9: Designs, Diagrams, and Tables & “fit” Designs, Diagrams, and Tables Healthy People - E E DZ

116 E E a 2x2 Table Where do these people “fit” in the 2x2 table? Flow Diagram Controlled Trial Healthy People E E DZ Random Assignment Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 2-9: Designs, Diagrams, and Tables

117 DZ E E b Flow Diagram 2x2 Table Healthy People E E DZ Random Assignment Where do these people “fit” in the 2x2 table? Controlled Trial Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 2-9: Designs, Diagrams, and Tables

118 DZ E E c Flow Diagram 2x2 Table Flow Diagram Healthy People E E DZ Random Assignment Where do these people “fit” in the 2x2 table? Controlled Trial Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 2-9: Designs, Diagrams, and Tables

119 DZ E E d 2x2 Table Flow Diagram Healthy People E E DZ Random Assignment Where do these people “fit” in the 2x2 table? Controlled Trial Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 2-9: Designs, Diagrams, and Tables

120 DZ E E c Flow Diagram 2x2 Table Where are these people in the flow diagram? Cohort Study Healthy People E E DZ Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 2-9: Designs, Diagrams, and Tables

121 DZ E E a 2x2 Table Where are these people in the flow diagram? Flow Diagram Cohort Study Healthy People E E DZ Healthy People Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 2-9: Designs, Diagrams, and Tables

122 DZ E E d Flow Diagram 2x2 Table Where are these people in the flow diagram? Cohort Study Healthy People E E DZ Healthy People Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 2-9: Designs, Diagrams, and Tables

123 DZ E E b Flow Diagram 2x2 Table Where are these people in the flow diagram? Cohort Study Healthy People E E DZ Healthy People Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 2-9: Designs, Diagrams, and Tables

124 DZ E E a Where do these people go in the 2x2 table? 2x2 Table Flow Diagram Case-Control Study DZ E E E E Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 2-9: Designs, Diagrams, and Tables

125 DZ E E c Where do these people go in the 2x2 table? Flow Diagram 2x2 Table Case-Control Study DZ E E E E Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 2-9: Designs, Diagrams, and Tables

126 Flow Diagram DZ E E b 2x2 Table Where do these people go in the 2x2 table? Case-Control Study DZ E E E E Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 2-9: Designs, Diagrams, and Tables

127 Flow Diagram DZ E E d 2x2 Table Where do these people go in the 2x2 table? Case-Control Study DZ E E E E Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 2-9: Designs, Diagrams, and Tables

128 DZ E E a Flow Diagram 2x2 Table Where do these people go in the 2x2 table? Cross-Sectional Study E E DZ Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 2-9: Designs, Diagrams, and Tables

129 DZ E E c Flow Diagram 2x2 Table Where do these people go in the 2x2 table? Cross-Sectional Study E E DZ Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 2-9: Designs, Diagrams, and Tables

130 DZ E E d Flow Diagram 2x2 Table Where do these people go in the 2x2 table? Cross-Sectional Study E E DZ Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 2-9: Designs, Diagrams, and Tables

131 DZ E E b Flow Diagram 2x2 Table Where do these people go in the 2x2 table? Cross-Sectional Study E E DZ Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 2-9: Designs, Diagrams, and Tables

132 132 National Research Council, Learning and Understanding Teach Epidemiology Enduring Epidemiological Understandings Knowledge that “… is connected and organized, and … ‘conditionalized’ to specify the context in which it is applicable.”

133 The goal of every epidemiological study is to harvest valid and precise information about the relationship between an exposure and a disease in a population. The various study designs merely represent different ways of harvesting this information. Essentials in Epidemiology in Public Health Ann Aschengrau and George R. Seage III Making Group Comparisons and Identifying Associations Teach Epidemiology

134 134

135 135 Hypothesis Total RiskRelative Risk a b c d or % % ExposureOutcome ? Turned Up Together Healthy People - E E DZ Teach Epidemiology Where are we?

136 136 Teach Epidemiology Enduring Epidemiological Understandings

137 Teach Epidemiology Explaining Associations and Judging Causation

138 1.Cause 2.Confounding 3.Reverse Time Order 4. Chance 5.Bias Teach Epidemiology Explaining Associations and Judging Causation Coffee and Cancer of the Pancreas

139 139

140 140 Guilt or Innocence?Causal or Not Causal? Does evidence from an aggregate of studies support a cause-effect relationship? Teach Epidemiology Explaining Associations and Judging Causation

141 141 Sir Austin Bradford Hill “The Environment and Disease: Association or Causation?” Proceedings of the Royal Society of Medicine January 14, 1965 Teach Epidemiology Explaining Associations and Judging Causation Handout

142 142 “In what circumstances can we pass from this observed association to a verdict of causation?” Teach Epidemiology Explaining Associations and Judging Causation

143 143 “Here then are nine different viewpoints from all of which we should study association before we cry causation.” Teach Epidemiology Explaining Associations and Judging Causation

144 Does evidence from an aggregate of studies support a cause-effect relationship? 1. What is the strength of the association between the risk factor and the disease? 2. Can a biological gradient be demonstrated? 3. Is the finding consistent? Has it been replicated by others in other places? 4. Have studies established that the risk factor precedes the disease? 5. Is the risk factor associated with one disease or many different diseases? 6. Is the new finding coherent with earlier knowledge about the risk factor and the m disease? 7. Are the implications of the observed findings biologically sensible? 8. Is there experimental evidence, in humans or animals, in which the disease has m been produced by controlled administration of the risk factor? Teach Epidemiology Explaining Associations and Judging Causation

145 Handout Teach Epidemiology Explaining Associations and Judging Causation

146 Timeline Cohort Study Randomized Controlled Trial Timeline Case-Control Study Timeline Cross-Sectional Study Timeline E E O O O O E E E E Healthy People E Random Assignment E O O O O Healthy People E E O O O O Teach Epidemiology Explaining Associations and Judging Causation

147 Teach Epidemiology Explaining Associations and Judging Causation Handout

148 148 Stress causes ulcers. Helicobacter pylori causes ulcers. Teach Epidemiology Explaining Associations and Judging Causation

149 149 * * * * * * * * * Teach Epidemiology Explaining Associations and Judging Causation

150 150 Teach Epidemiology Explaining Associations and Judging Causation

151 151

152 152 Epidemiology... the study of the distribution and determinants of health- related states or events in specified populations and the application of this study to the control of health problems. Leon Gordis, Epidemiology, 3 rd Edition, Elsevier Saunders, 2004.

153 153 Outcome If an association was causal, …. Hypothesized Exposure X X … and you avoided or eliminated the hypothesized cause, what would happen to the outcome? causal, …. ? Control of Health Problems

154 154 Outcome If the association was found due to confounding, …. Hypothesized Exposure Unobserved Exposure X … and you avoided or eliminated the hypothesized cause, what would happen to the outcome? ? found due to confounding, …. Control of Health Problems

155 155 Hypothesized Exposure Outcome If an association was found due to reversed time-order, …. found due to reversed time order, …. X … and you avoided or eliminated the hypothesized cause, what would happen to the outcome? ? Control of Health Problems

156 156 Outcome If an association was found due to chance, …. Hypothesized Exposure found due to chance, …. X … and you avoided or eliminated the hypothesized cause, what would happen to the outcome? ? Control of Health Problems

157 157 Outcome If an association was found due to bias, …. Hypothesized Exposure ? found due to bias, …. X … and you avoided or eliminated the hypothesized cause, what would happen to the outcome? Control of Health Problems

158 158 Outcome If an association was causal, …. Hypothesized Exposure X X … and you avoided or eliminated the hypothesized cause, what would happen to the outcome? causal, ….... the study of the distribution and determinants of health-related states or events in specified populations and the application of this study to the control of health problems. Control of Health Problems

159 159 1.Cause 2.Confounding 3.Reverse Time Order 4. Chance 5.Bias... the study of the distribution and determinants of health-related states or events in specified populations and the application of this study to the control of health problems. Control of Health Problems

160 160 Suicide Higher in Areas with Guns Family Meals Are Good for Mental Health Lack of High School Diploma Tied to US Death Rate Study Links Spanking to Aggression Study Concludes: Movies Influence Youth Smoking Study Links Iron Deficiency to Math Scores Kids Who Watch R-Rated Movies More Likely to Drink, Smoke Pollution Linked with Birth Defects in US Study 1.Cause 2.Confounding 3.Reverse Time Order 4. Chance 5.Bias Snacks Key to Kids’ TV- Linked Obesity: China Study Depressed Teens More Likely to Smoke Ties, Links, Relationships, and Associations

161 161 Teach Epidemiology Enduring Epidemiological Understandings

162 162

163 163 Time Check 9:45 AM

164 164

165 165 Teach Epidemiology

166 166 Time Check 10:15 AM

167 167

168 168 Teach Epidemiology

169 169 Time Check 10:30 AM

170 170

171 171 Teach Epidemiology

172 172 Time Check 11:00 AM

173 173

174 174 Teach Epidemiology

175 175 Time Check 11:30 AM

176 176

177 177 Teach Epidemiology

178 178 Time Check 12:30 PM

179 179

180 180 Teach Epidemiology

181 181 Teach Epidemiology Teachers Team-Teaching Teachers (TTT) Teach Existing Epidemiological Lessons (EL) (4 Groups) Team leads other workshop participants in a portion of a selected existing epidemiological lesson. TTTT 12 EL

182 182 Teach Epidemiology Enduring Epidemiological Understandings

183 183 Time Check 1:00 PM

184 184

185 185 Teach Epidemiology

186 Teachers Team-Teaching Teachers (TTT) Teach Existing Epidemiological Lessons (EL) (4 Groups) Team leads other workshop participants in a portion of a selected existing epidemiological lesson. TTTT 13 EL

187 187 Teach Epidemiology Enduring Epidemiological Understandings

188 188 Time Check 1:30 PM

189 189

190 190 Teach Epidemiology

191 Teachers Team-Teaching Teachers (TTT) Teach Existing Epidemiological Lessons (EL) (4 Groups) Team leads other workshop participants in a portion of a selected existing epidemiological lesson. TTTT 14 EL

192 192 Teach Epidemiology Enduring Epidemiological Understandings

193 193 Time Check 2:00 PM

194 194

195 195 Teach Epidemiology

196 View a News Item from an Epidemiological Perspective (NI) (4 Groups) Team leads other workshop participants in the analysis of a news item from an epidemiological perspective. Teach Epidemiology Teachers Team-Teaching Teachers (TTT) TTTT 15 NI

197 197 Teach Epidemiology Enduring Epidemiological Understandings

198 198 Time Check 2:45 PM

199 199

200 200 Teach Epidemiology

201 201 Time Check 3:00 PM

202 202

203 203 Teach Epidemiology

204 204 Teach Epidemiology Tours

205 205 Broadcast Studios Teach Epidemiology Tours

206 206 Emergency Operation Center Teach Epidemiology Tours

207 207 Time Check 4:00 PM


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