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RUN PLAYS: 15 (27 TH ) RUN TDs: 9 (13 TH ) RUN EFFICIENCY: 60% (1 ST ) 2013: Rashard Mendenhall was highly efficient, scoring 8 times on 11 carries.

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Presentation on theme: "RUN PLAYS: 15 (27 TH ) RUN TDs: 9 (13 TH ) RUN EFFICIENCY: 60% (1 ST ) 2013: Rashard Mendenhall was highly efficient, scoring 8 times on 11 carries."— Presentation transcript:

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6 RUN PLAYS: 15 (27 TH ) RUN TDs: 9 (13 TH ) RUN EFFICIENCY: 60% (1 ST ) 2013: Rashard Mendenhall was highly efficient, scoring 8 times on 11 carries. 2014: Andre Ellington takes over as the team’s every down back, and should get those carries. TOTAL PLAYS: 33 (26 TH ) RUN/PASS RATIO: 54% PASS PASS PLAYS: 18 (16 TH ) PASS TDs: 4 (25 TH ) PASS EFFICIENCY: 22% (29 TH ) 2013: Larry Fitzgerald was targeted more than all the other wide receivers combined 2014: Michael Floyd didn’t get a target after mid-November. It’s still probably Fitzgerald’s job.

7 RUN PLAYS: 21 (13 th ) RUN TDs: 6 (26 TH ) RUN EFFICIENCY: 29% (28 th ) 2013: Steven Jackson led the team with 13 carries and 5 touchdowns. 2014: Even if Jackson yields the starting job to Devonta Freeman at some point, Jackson could remain the goal line back. TOTAL PLAYS: 46 (3 rd ) RUN/PASS RATIO: 54% PASS PASS PLAYS: 25 (3rd) PASS TDs: 7 (14 th ) PASS EFFICIENCY: 28% (25 TH ) 2013: TE Tony Gonzalez led the team in targets 2014: Who fills his vacuum this year?

8 RUN PLAYS: 25 (3 rd ) RUN TDs: 7 (20 th ) RUN EFFICIENCY: 28% (29 th ) 2013: Ray Rice scored on just 4 of 15 carries, and Bernard Pierce scored on just 2 of 7 carries. 2014: If they both struggle again, does that open the door for giant rookie Lorenzo Taliaferro? TOTAL PLAYS: 40 (15 th ) RUN/PASS RATIO: 62% RUN PASS PLAYS: 15 (21 st ) PASS TDs: 7 (14 th ) PASS EFFICIENCY: 47% (10 th ) 2013: Despite missing over half the year, and starting just one game, Dennis Pitta was targeted the 2 nd - most times. 2014: With a full season as the starter, Dennis Pitta should easily lead the team in targets.

9 RUN PLAYS: 23 (8 th ) RUN TDs: 10 (8 th ) RUN EFFICIENCY: 43% (13 th ) 2013: Fred Jackson had 18 carries (third most in NFL), and 7 TDs. CJ Spiller had 1 (and he didn't score). 2014: Is there any reason to believe that the same coaching staff will use Jackson and Spiller any differently this year? TOTAL PLAYS: 44 (9 th ) RUN/PASS RATIO: 63% RUN PASS PLAYS: 13 (25 th ) PASS TDs: 3 (29 th ) PASS EFFICIENCY: 23% (28 th ) 2013: Buffalo QBs attempted 13 pass plays, and managed just 3 touchdowns 2014: Unless EJ Manuel gets a lot better, it caps the upside of his receivers, Sammy Watkins, Mike Williams, and Robert Woods.

10 RUN PLAYS: 21 (13 th ) RUN TDs: 8 (16 th ) RUN EFFICIENCY: 38% (21 st ) 2013: We think of Cam Newton as a goal line threat, but his carries dropped from 15 in 2012 to just 3 last year. Mike Tolbert out-carried Cam Newton : This is all Tolbert does, so it’s hard to believe that it’ll change. TOTAL PLAYS: 36 (9 th ) RUN/PASS RATIO: 58% RUN PASS PLAYS: 18 (16 th ) PASS TDs: 6 (19 th ) PASS EFFICIENCY: 40% (19 th ) 2013: Greg Olsen led all Carolina players in targets. 2014: Considering the do-over Carolina did at wide receiver, that seems unlikely to change.

11 RUN PLAYS: 24 (4 th ) RUN TDs: 8 (16 th ) RUN EFFICIENCY: 33% (27 th ) 2013: In his first season as the goal line back, Matt Forte converted 13 carries into 6 touchdowns. 2014: The Bears were much more efficient throwing than running. TOTAL PLAYS: 48 (2 nd ) RUN/PASS RATIO: EVEN PASS PLAYS: 24 (11 th ) PASS TDs: 11 (4 th ) PASS EFFICIENCY: 46% (12 th ) 2013: Brandon Marshall was targeted as many times as all other WRs and TEs combined. 2014: And, that’s why he’s more valuable than Alshon Jeffery.

12 RUN PLAYS: 23 (8 th ) RUN TDs: 10 (8 th ) RUN EFFICIENCY: 44% (12 th ) 2013: Surprisingly, Giovanni Bernard had almost as many carries at BJGE (8:11). Gio also got 5 of the final 6 carries last year. 2014: We assume that Jeremy Hill will be the goal line back, but that may not be the case. TOTAL PLAYS: 35 (21 st ) RUN/PASS RATIO: 66% RUN PASS PLAYS: 12 (26 th ) PASS TDs: 6 (19 th ) PASS EFFICIENCY: 50% (9 th ) 2013: AJ Green had almost as many targets as the rest of the team (5:7) 2014: With Marvin Jones out for a couple months, Green will have even more changes. Tyler Eifert may evolve into a goal line factor, too.

13 RUN PLAYS: 21 (13 th ) RUN TDs: 4 (31 st ) RUN EFFICIENCY: 24% (31 st ) 2013: Willis McGahee: 15 carries, zero yards, 2 touchdowns. 2014: Terrance West could be the answer. At Towson last year, he scored 42 (!!!) touchdowns. TOTAL PLAYS: 45 (6 th ) RUN/PASS RATIO: 53% PASS PASS PLAYS: 24 (4 th ) PASS TDs: 10 (7 th ) PASS EFFICIENCY: 42% (18 th ) 2013: Josh Gordon led the team in targets with 8. There is no receiver on the team who was targeted for even one pass last year. 2014: Who will fill Gordon’s role as goal line target? Jordan Cameron is most likely.

14 RUN PLAYS: 21 (13 th ) RUN TDs: 10 (8 th ) RUN EFFICIENCY: 48% (9 th ) 2013: DeMarco Murray had the fourth-most carries last year, 16. He scored 7 times. 2014: New OC Scott Linehan threw to Reggie Bush and Joique Bell just once each last year. Neither scored. TOTAL PLAYS: 42 (13 th ) RUN/PASS RATIO: EVEN PASS PLAYS: 21 (12 th ) PASS TDs: 12 (3 rd ) PASS EFFICIENCY: 57% (5 th ) 2013: Dez Bryant was unreal, catching 9 of 11 passes for 9 touchdowns. He had the most targets in NFL. 2014: I see no reason that changes under new OC Scott Linehan (he threw to Calvin Johnson 5 th most)

15 RUN PLAYS: 35 (1 st ) RUN TDs: 12 (1 st ) RUN EFFICIENCY: 34% (26 th ) 2013: Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball combined for a crazy 24 attempts (more than 29 teams). They scored 10 times. 2014: The only area in which the Broncos struggled was rushing efficiency. Monte Ball was an elite touchdown scorer in college. TOTAL PLAYS: 66 (1 st ) RUN/PASS RATIO: 53% PASS PLAYS: 31 (1 st ) PASS TDs: 18 (1 st ) PASS EFFICIENCY: 58% (4 th ) 2013: Surprisingly, the Broncos’ most targeted receiver was Wes Welker. He had the 2 nd -most targets in the entire NFL. 2014: That seems unlikely to happen again, so it’s possible that Welker’s fantasy production slows this year.

16 RUN PLAYS: 21 (13 TH ) RUN TDs: 12 (1 ST ) RUN EFFICIENCY: 57% (2 ND ) 2013: Joique Bell was a star at the stripe, scoring 7 times in 12 carries. Reggie Bush only had 1 goal line carry after Halloween. 2014: If Joique Bell owns the goal line work all season, look out. TOTAL PLAYS: 45 (6 th ) RUN/PASS RATIO: 53% PASS PASS PLAYS: 24 (4 TH ) PASS TDs: 11 (4 TH ) PASS EFFICIENCY: 46% (11 TH ) 2013: Calvin Johnson had 8 targets. The rest of the wide receivers combined for : Oddly, Bell and Bush were only thrown to 1 time each. New coaches could change that.

17 RUN PLAYS: 20 (18 th ) RUN TDs: 11 (4 th ) RUN EFFICIENCY: 55% (5 th ) 2013: Eddie Lacy was great, scoring 9 times in 13 attempts. Aaron Rodgers’ carries dropped to : With Lacy converting on his opportunities, it’s unlikely that the team will make any changes. TOTAL PLAYS: 46 (3 rd ) RUN/PASS RATIO: 57% PASS PASS PLAYS: 26 (2 nd ) PASS TDs: 7 (14 th ) PASS EFFICIENCY: 27% (26 th ) 2013: Non-Aaron Rodgers QBs threw just 4 touchdowns on 14 attempts, which is why the efficiency is so low. 2014: Aaron Rodgers will improve the efficiency.

18 RUN PLAYS: 17 (25 th ) RUN TDs: 4 (31 st ) RUN EFFICIENCY: 24% (32 nd ) 2013: Need another reason to worry about Arian Foster? He got 8 carries, and scored just 1 time. (Ben Tate was also 1 of 8.) 2014: Perhaps changes to the offensive line scheme will help? TOTAL PLAYS: 35 (21 st ) RUN/PASS RATIO: 51% PASS PASS PLAYS: 18 (16 th ) PASS TDs: 8 (12 th ) PASS EFFICIENCY: 44% (16 th ) 2013: With just 3 targets all year, Andre Johnson continued to be underutilized in the red zone. 2014: Bill O’Brien’s offense may utilize Johnson more often

19 RUN PLAYS: 14 (30 th ) RUN TDs: 8 (16 th ) RUN EFFICIENCY: 57% (3 rd ) 2013: Trent Richardson got 4 carries (2 touchdowns). Other backs got 9, which suggests that the Colts didn’t trust him. 2014: Ahmad Bradshaw got more carries, and could reprise that role. TOTAL PLAYS: 31 (27 th ) RUN/PASS RATIO: 55% PASS PASS PLAYS: 17 (18 th ) PASS TDs: 3 (29 th ) PASS EFFICIENCY: 18% (30 th ) 2013: Andrew Luck completed just 3 of 13 passes for touchdowns. 2014: Reasons for optimism: Return of TE Dwayne Allen and addition of WR Hakeem Nicks.

20 RUN PLAYS: 15 (27 th ) RUN TDs: 6 (26 th ) RUN EFFICIENCY: 40% (17 th ) 2013: As a Viking, Toby Gerhart had 5 carries for 3 touchdowns, and 2 receptions for 1 touchdown. 2014: Gerhart likely gets goal line carries, but note that Jordan Todman converted 3 carries for 2 scores. Storm Johnson is a big kid. TOTAL PLAYS: 39 (17 th ) RUN/PASS RATIO: 62% PASS (1 st ) PASS PLAYS: 24 (4 th ) PASS TDs: 3 (29 th ) PASS EFFICIENCY: 13% (32 nd ) 2013: Chad Henne had the worst scoring rate of all starters with just 3 touchdowns in 17 passes. 2014: Reasons for optimism: Return of tight end Dwayne Allen and addition of wide receiver Hakeem Nicks.

21 RUN PLAYS: 24 (4 th ) RUN TDs: 11 (4 th ) RUN EFFICIENCY: 46% (10 th ) 2013: Jamaal Charles got 16 attempts. No other running back had more than : There’s no reason to think that’ll change. TOTAL PLAYS: 44 (9 th ) RUN/PASS RATIO: 55% RUSH PASS PLAYS: 20 (14 th ) PASS TDs: 9 (9 th ) PASS EFFICIENCY: 45% (15 th ) 2013: Jamaal Charles's 7 targets were four more than anyone else, at any position. 2014: Charles was the NFL’s only running back to lead his team in Money Zone targets. That’s not ideal. Watch Travis Kelce.

22 RUN PLAYS: 16 (26 th ) RUN TDs: 7 (20 th ) RUN EFFICIENCY: 44% (11 th ) 2013: Lamar Miller got 5 of the final 6 Money Zone rushing attempts last year (good). But he converted them into only 1 touchdown (bad). 2014: Will Knowshon Moreno win goal line work? He converted 7 of 15 attempts last year. TOTAL PLAYS: 27 (29 th ) RUN/PASS RATIO: 59% RUSH PASS PLAYS: 11 (28 th ) PASS TDs: 8 (12 th ) PASS EFFICIENCY: 73% (2 nd ) 2013: No player was targeted more than 2 times. 2014: The diffusion of targets suppresses the upside of Mike Wallace and Charles Clay.

23 RUN PLAYS: 13 (31 st ) RUN TDs: 7 (20 th ) RUN EFFICIENCY: 53% (7 th ) 2013: Adrian Peterson scored on 4 of 8 carries. 2014: Peterson was a good fantasy player last year, despite the meager number of carries he saw. TOTAL PLAYS: 23 (32 nd ) RUN/PASS RATIO: 57% RUN PASS PLAYS: 10 (30 th ) PASS TDs: 3 (29 th ) PASS EFFICIENCY: 30% (23 rd ) 2013: Matt Cassel was especially lousy here, completing just 1 of 7 passes. 2014: Reasons for optimism: new OC Norv Turner and the return to health of Kyle Rudolph.

24 RUN PLAYS: 22 (12 th ) RUN TDs: 12 (1 st ) RUN EFFICIENCY: 55% (6 th ) 2013: Stevan Ridley was great, scoring 6 times in 8 carries. Shane Vereen had 3 attempts, gained 0 yards, and didn't score. 2014: Fumbling aside, Ridley has likely earned the team’s confidence at the stripe. TOTAL PLAYS: 45 (6 th ) RUN/PASS RATIO: 51% PASS PASS PLAYS: 23 (10 th ) PASS TDs: 7 (14 th ) PASS EFFICIENCY: 30% (23 rd ) 2013: Although Gronk played 7 games, he was only targeted 1 time. Weird! 2014: Gronk was targeted 8 times the prior year. He probably returns to his previous usage.

25 RUN PLAYS: 20 (18 th ) RUN TDs: 7 (20 th ) RUN EFFICIENCY: 35% (24 th ) 2013: Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram were both bad, combining to score on just 2 of 11 attempts. 2014: Mark Ingram has never been good in this are. It could be a random mix of runners, including Khiry Robinson. TOTAL PLAYS: 44 (9 th ) RUN/PASS RATIO: 55% PASS PASS PLAYS: 24 (4 th ) PASS TDs: 10 (7 th ) PASS EFFICIENCY: 42% (17 th ) 2013: Jimmy Graham led team in targets (7), receptions (5), and touchdowns (3) 2014: Graham is so good at the stripe, it’s hard to imagine it changing.

26 RUN PLAYS: 23 (8 th ) RUN TDs: 9 (13 th ) RUN EFFICIENCY: 39% (19 th ) 2013: Tom Coughlin loves his big backs. Brandon Jacobs, Peyton Hills & Andre Brown combined for a whopping 18 attempts. 2014: His big back this year is rookie Andre Williams. TOTAL PLAYS: 30 (28 th ) RUN/PASS RATIO: 77% RUN (1 st ) PASS PLAYS: 7 (32 nd ) PASS TDs: 4 (25 th ) PASS EFFICIENCY: 57% (6 th ) 2013: Eli Manning wasn’t given many chances, but when he was, he was very efficient, scoring on 4 of 6 attempts (he was sacked once). 2014: Rueben Randle is the only big bodied receiving option for Eli.

27 RUN PLAYS: 15 (27 th ) RUN TDs: 6 (26 th ) RUN EFFICIENCY: 40% (18 th ) 2013: Chris Ivory & Bilal Powell split goal line use with 6 & 5 carries for 2 & 1 touchdown, respectively. 2014: Chris Johnson had just 1 carry last year, and has scored just 2 times in the last 2 years. TOTAL PLAYS: 25 (30 th ) RUN/PASS RATIO: 60% RUN PASS PLAYS: 10 (30 th ) PASS TDs: 2 (32 nd ) PASS EFFICIENCY: 20% (30 th ) 2013: Geno Smith was predictably bad, completing 3 passes in 10 pass plays. 2014: If the Jets come to their senses and start Mike Vick, it opens up a lot of options at the stripe.

28 RUN PLAYS: 24 (4 th ) RUN TDs: 10 (8 th ) RUN EFFICIENCY: 47% (14 th ) 2013: Darren McFadden was good here, scoring on 4 of 7 attempts. 2014: Maurice Jones-Drew is also effective in this range, and either guy could see carries. TOTAL PLAYS: 36 (18 th ) RUN/PASS RATIO: 67% RUN (3 rd ) PASS PLAYS: 12 (26 th ) PASS TDs: 4 (25 th ) PASS EFFICIENCY: 33% (21 st ) 2013: Denarius Moore dominated targets with 7. The rest of the team had : Moore might get cut. Deep sleeper Andre Holmes has the size to be a goal line target.

29 RUN PLAYS: 23 (8 th ) RUN TDs: 11 (4 th ) RUN EFFICIENCY: 48% (8 th ) 2013: Part of the team’s impressive rushing production was due to Nick Foles, who ran 7 times for 3 scores. 2014: Quarterback rushing is usually fluky, and Foles could yield those to McCoy. TOTAL PLAYS: 36 (18 th ) RUN/PASS RATIO: 64% RUN PASS PLAYS: 13 (25 th ) PASS TDs: 7 (14 th ) PASS EFFICIENCY: 54% (8 th ) 2013: Nick Foles was the most efficient QB, scoring on 8 of 10 passes. 2014: Last year, Riley Cooper was targeted more than all other WRs combined. But, Maclin was hurt.

30 RUN PLAYS: 20 (18 th ) RUN TDs: 7 (20 th ) RUN EFFICIENCY: 35% (25 th ) 2013: Bell got a whopping 19 carries (2nd most in NFL). The rest of team got 1. He converted 7 of : LeGarrette Blount is now in Pittsburgh and could take carries from Bell. TOTAL PLAYS: 40 (15 th ) RUN/PASS RATIO: EVEN PASS PLAYS: 20 (14 th ) PASS TDs: 9 (9 th ) PASS EFFICIENCY: 45% (15 th ) 2013: The top two targets, Jerricho Cotchery and Emmanuel Sanders, are gone. Antonio Brown was targeted just one time all year. 2014: They don’t like to target Antonio Brown, so does Markus Wheaton get those passes?

31 RUN PLAYS: 18 (23 rd ) RUN TDs: 7 (20 th ) RUN EFFICIENCY: 39% (20 th ) 2013: Including receptions, Danny Woodhead had 11 touches and Ryan Matthews had : Woodhead’s usage caps Matthews’ upside. TOTAL PLAYS: 41 (14 th ) RUN/PASS RATIO: 56% PASS PASS PLAYS: 23 (10 th ) PASS TDs: 6 (19 th ) PASS EFFICIENCY: 26% (28 th ) 2013: Keenan Allen had as many targets as the rest of wideouts combined. 2014: Without any notable additions to the receivers corps, Allen should remain the primary goal line target.

32 RUN PLAYS: 24 (4 th ) RUN TDs: 9 (13 th ) RUN EFFICIENCY: 38% (22 th ) 2013: Rushing quarterback Colin Kaepernick ran just 1 time! 2014: Frank Gore was just okay in the Money Zone, scoring 4 times on 11 carries. Could the door be open for Carlos Hyde? TOTAL PLAYS: 35 (21 th ) RUN/PASS RATIO: 67% RUN (2 nd ) PASS PLAYS: 11 (28 th ) PASS TDs: 6 (19 th ) PASS EFFICIENCY: 55% (7 th ) 2013: Vernon Davis dominated all receivers with 6 targets. The rest of the team had : The return of Michael Crabtree and the additions of Stevie Johnson and Brandon Lloyd will hurt Davis.

33 RUN PLAYS: 30 (2 nd ) RUN TDs: 11 (4 th ) RUN EFFICIENCY: 37% (23 rd ) 2013: Marshawn Lynch got 26 carries, by far the most in the NFL. The rest of the team got : Even if Lynch loses 25% of last year’s carries, he’d still lead the league. TOTAL PLAYS: 46 (3 rd ) RUN/PASS RATIO: 65% RUN PASS PLAYS: 16 (10 th ) PASS TDs: 6 (19 th ) PASS EFFICIENCY: 37% (20 th ) 2013: Zach Miller's 3 touchdowns were as much as the rest of the players combined. 2014: Wideouts were not involved in the Money Zone offense last year. But, they didn’t have Percy Harvin.

34 RUN PLAYS: 19 (21 st ) RUN TDs: 5 (29 th ) RUN EFFICIENCY: 26% (30 th ) 2013: It's all Zac Stacy. He got 12 carries. Nobody else had more than : Tre Mason scored 23 times for Auburn last year, but Stacy is built for goal line use, and should keep the job. TOTAL PLAYS: 43 (12 th ) RUN/PASS RATIO: 55% PASS PASS PLAYS: 24 (4 th ) PASS TDs: 11 (4 th ) PASS EFFICIENCY: 46% (13 th ) 2013: Tavon Austin didn’t catch a single pass, and was targeted just two times. 2014: Austin Pettis scored three times. Kenny Britt appears to have won Pettis’ job, and could get those looks.

35 RUN PLAYS: 10 (32 nd ) RUN TDs: 4 (31 st ) RUN EFFICIENCY: 40% (15 th ) 2013: In Doug Martin’s six full games, he had just 1 carry (his only touchdown of 2013). 2014: With Charles Sims out until Thanksgiving, Martin will get all the goal line work. TOTAL PLAYS: 25 (30 th ) RUN/PASS RATIO: 60% PASS PASS PLAYS: 15 (21 st ) PASS TDs: 9 (9 th ) PASS EFFICIENCY: 60% (3 rd ) 2013: Vincent Jackson led the team in targets, catches, and touchdowns. 2014: The upgrade from Mike Williams to Mike Evans could eat into Jackson’s targets.

36 RUN PLAYS: 20 (18 th ) RUN TDs: 8 (16 th ) RUN EFFICIENCY: 40% (15 th ) 2013: Chris Johnson was only given 1 carry. Shonn Greene and Jackie Battle had : Greene still lingers, but Bishop Stankey isn’t as skittish about contact as Chris Johnson. TOTAL PLAYS: 35 (21 st ) RUN/PASS RATIO: 57% RUN PASS PLAYS: 15 (21 st ) PASS TDs: 4 (25 th ) PASS EFFICIENCY: 27% (27 th ) 2013: Delanie Walker had as many targets as the rest of the team. 2014: Young wide receivers Kendell Wright and Justin Hunter should get more looks.

37 RUN PLAYS: 18 (23 rd ) RUN TDs: 10 (8 th ) RUN EFFICIENCY: 55% (4 th ) 2013: Alfred Morris scored 5 times. But, Roy Helu and Darrel Young scored 5 times too. 2014: In Cincinnati last year, new head coach Jay Gruden split his RB carries between BJGE (13) and Giovanni Bernard (8). TOTAL PLAYS: 35 (21 st ) RUN/PASS RATIO: 51% RUN PASS PLAYS: 17 (18 th ) PASS TDs: 5 (24 th ) PASS EFFICIENCY: 29% (24 th ) 2013: Washington tight ends had as many targets as wide receivers. 2014: Last year, Jay Gruden used Jermaine Gresham and Tyler Eifert similarly. Good sign for Jordan Reed.


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