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1 ADVANCED STATISTICAL METHODS IN AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH UJI HIPOTESIS SUMBER: www.aaec.ttu.edu/faculty/omurova/aaec_4302/.../Chapter%2012a.ppt

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2 UJI HIPOTESIS STATISTIK Two contradictory hypotheses: –Null hypothesis - H 0 –Alternative hypothesis – H 1 Three sets of hypothesis: H 0 : H 1 : H 0 : H 1 : H 0 : H 1 : SUMBER: www.aaec.ttu.edu/faculty/omurova/aaec_4302/.../Chapter%2012a.ppt

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3 Basic significance Test: H 0 : H 1 : Decision rule: Reject H 0 if Reject H 0 Do not reject H 0 Reject H 0 SUMBER: www.aaec.ttu.edu/faculty/omurova/aaec_4302/.../Chapter%2012a.ppt UJI HIPOTESIS STATISTIK

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4 2 types of mistakes: H 0 is trueH 0 is false (H 1 is false)(H 1 is true) _________________________________________ Reject H 0 Error –Type ICorrect Decision __________________________________________ Do not Reject H 0 Correct DecisionError – Type II _________________________________________________ SUMBER: www.aaec.ttu.edu/faculty/omurova/aaec_4302/.../Chapter%2012a.ppt UJI HIPOTESIS STATISTIK

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5 Linear transformation that yields a random variable Z that has a normal distribution ( µ=0, σ=1) Critical value Z c is determined from Pr(|Z|≥ Z c ) = ά SUMBER: www.aaec.ttu.edu/faculty/omurova/aaec_4302/.../Chapter%2012a.ppt UJI HIPOTESIS STATISTIK

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6 How to conduct the t-test: 1)State the hypotheses 2)Choose the level of significance α 3)Construct the decision rule 4)Determine the value of the test statistics t* 5)State and interpret the conclusion of the test SUMBER: www.aaec.ttu.edu/faculty/omurova/aaec_4302/.../Chapter%2012a.ppt UJI HIPOTESIS STATISTIK

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7 CONTOH: Y i = B 0 + B 1 X 1 + B 2 X 2 + U i Ŷ i = B 0 + B 1 X 1 + B 2 X 2 Ŷ i = 474.05 + 1.46X 1 +26.32X 2 Where:Y i = Cotton Yields (lbs/ac) X 1 = Phosphorous Fertilizer (lbs/ac) X 2 = Irrigation Water (in/ac) ^^ ^ SUMBER: www.aaec.ttu.edu/faculty/omurova/aaec_4302/.../Chapter%2012a.ppt UJI HIPOTESIS STATISTIK

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8 Interpreting Summary Output from Excel Total number of observations 134 SUMBER: www.aaec.ttu.edu/faculty/omurova/aaec_4302/.../Chapter%2012a.ppt

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9 Some General Remarks A “rule of thumb” is that: |t j * | ≥ 2 β j is statistically different from zero, at least at the 95% level of statistical certainty SUMBER: www.aaec.ttu.edu/faculty/omurova/aaec_4302/.../Chapter%2012a.ppt

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10 Some General Remarks One-tail test vs. two-tail test Advantage If you properly justify that X j has only a positive (negative) effect on the dependent variable Y i, then the one-tail test will help you reject the null hypothesis. Under a one-tail test, the critical t-value is smaller than the critical t-value under a two-tail test. SUMBER: www.aaec.ttu.edu/faculty/omurova/aaec_4302/.../Chapter%2012a.ppt

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11 Some General Remarks One-tail test vs. two-tail test Disadvantage If you decide that X j has only a positive effect on Y, than you cannot change your decision after running the regression. SUMBER: www.aaec.ttu.edu/faculty/omurova/aaec_4302/.../Chapter%2012a.ppt

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Major Steps. 1.State the hypotheses. Be sure to state both the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis, and identify which is the claim. H0H0.

Major Steps. 1.State the hypotheses. Be sure to state both the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis, and identify which is the claim. H0H0.

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