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The case for a global greenhouse gas standard for light-duty vehicles based on the California model Russell Long, Ph.D. Bluewater Network Founder, Executive.

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Presentation on theme: "The case for a global greenhouse gas standard for light-duty vehicles based on the California model Russell Long, Ph.D. Bluewater Network Founder, Executive."— Presentation transcript:

1 The case for a global greenhouse gas standard for light-duty vehicles based on the California model Russell Long, Ph.D. Bluewater Network Founder, Executive Director

2 Global Warming Threatens progress on the most important social and environmental problems of our time.

3 Burning of fossil fuels is the #1 cause of global warming

4 Transport accounts for two- thirds of US oil consumption

5 Transportation trends Virtually all transport energy comes from petroleum Virtually all transport energy comes from petroleum In the US, 76% of US transport energy is used by highway vehicles, of which 60% is from cars and light trucks (almost half of total) In the US, 76% of US transport energy is used by highway vehicles, of which 60% is from cars and light trucks (almost half of total)

6 CO 2 from a Model T driven in 1909 is still in the atmosphere, warming our planet

7 Average US fuel mileage from new light duty vehicles in 2003 has fallen 6% in the past 15 years Average US fuel mileage from new light duty vehicles in 2003 has fallen 6% in the past 15 years US transportation energy consumption is increasing by 1.8% annually, faster than any other category, much of this due to passenger vehicles US transportation energy consumption is increasing by 1.8% annually, faster than any other category, much of this due to passenger vehicles Transportation Trends

8 Someone Ought to Pass a Law Oil, Big Auto blocking US efforts to increase federal fuel mileage standards Oil, Big Auto blocking US efforts to increase federal fuel mileage standards November 2000, Bluewater Network conceives of and sponsors AB 1493: California’s Climate-Friendly Car Law November 2000, Bluewater Network conceives of and sponsors AB 1493: California’s Climate-Friendly Car Law Goal: regulate greenhouse gases just like other pollutants Goal: regulate greenhouse gases just like other pollutants

9 California’s Climate-Friendly Car Law First law specifically targeting reductions of greenhouse gases from passenger vehicles; nearly 40% of state GHG inventory First law specifically targeting reductions of greenhouse gases from passenger vehicles; nearly 40% of state GHG inventory Strong mandate; requires “maximum feasible cost-effective reduction of greenhouse gases from new passenger vehicles”. Strong mandate; requires “maximum feasible cost-effective reduction of greenhouse gases from new passenger vehicles”.

10 The Air Resources Board: a history of firsts Required smog controls such as catalytic converters on vehicles Required smog controls such as catalytic converters on vehicles Created low-emissions/zero emissions vehicle mandate that led to low-smog vehicles, alt-fueled vehicles, electric cars, and hybrids Created low-emissions/zero emissions vehicle mandate that led to low-smog vehicles, alt-fueled vehicles, electric cars, and hybrids Result: California cars in 2003 produce 99% less smog than in 1970 Result: California cars in 2003 produce 99% less smog than in 1970

11 Obstacles Round One Auto industry/oil industry reportedly spent over $5 million on deceptive ad campaign Auto industry/oil industry reportedly spent over $5 million on deceptive ad campaign –Radio –Television –Print Convinced many citizens that the new law would raise the price of fuel and vehicles Convinced many citizens that the new law would raise the price of fuel and vehicles Thousands of angry phone calls, letters, and s poured into State Capitol opposing bill Thousands of angry phone calls, letters, and s poured into State Capitol opposing bill

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13 California’s Climate-Friendly Car Law Legislation prohibits Legislation prohibits – speed limit reductions – driving or trip limitations – ban on SUV sales – land-use requirements – new auto or fuel taxes

14 The Road to Victory Supporters include: National political and entertainment figures: Senators McCain and Kerry, Majority Leader Dick Gephardt, Robert Redford, Barbra Streisand National political and entertainment figures: Senators McCain and Kerry, Majority Leader Dick Gephardt, Robert Redford, Barbra Streisand Unions and Associations (Teachers, Firefighters, Nurses, Service Workers, Fishers, etc.) Unions and Associations (Teachers, Firefighters, Nurses, Service Workers, Fishers, etc.) Business leaders and industry (Ski industry, Silicon Valley entrepreneurs) Business leaders and industry (Ski industry, Silicon Valley entrepreneurs)

15 The Road to Victory Supporters include: Air and Water Quality Agencies Air and Water Quality Agencies Churches and Religious Leaders Churches and Religious Leaders Public Health and Environmental Organizations Public Health and Environmental Organizations Farmers Farmers Local Governments Local Governments Major Newspapers Major Newspapers

16 July 2002 bill signing ceremony for CA Climate-Friendly Car Law

17 Nuts and Bolts of the Regulation Affects new vehicles, starting with model year 2009 Affects new vehicles, starting with model year 2009 The state has until December 31, 2004 to develop actual regulatory language The state has until December 31, 2004 to develop actual regulatory language Potential for absolute cap on emissions from all new passenger vehicles in state Potential for absolute cap on emissions from all new passenger vehicles in state Potential for ramping up alternative fuels and alternative fueled vehicles Potential for ramping up alternative fuels and alternative fueled vehicles

18 Options under consideration Change catalyst or refrigerant: 2% Change catalyst or refrigerant: 2% Eliminate smog-forming pollution & particulate matter: 3% Eliminate smog-forming pollution & particulate matter: 3% Increase Efficiency: 25-60% Increase Efficiency: 25-60% Change fuels: < 100% Change fuels: < 100%

19 Efficiency is a “No-Brainer” Today’s Toyota Prius cuts greenhouse gas emissions almost in half compared to Toyota Camry, or a quarter that of a large SUV Today’s Toyota Prius cuts greenhouse gas emissions almost in half compared to Toyota Camry, or a quarter that of a large SUV But not enough… Still 4 tons of carbon dioxide per year - because it uses the wrong fuel Still 4 tons of carbon dioxide per year - because it uses the wrong fuel

20 Fuel-Technology Benefits Hydrogen from US grid energy (w/ fuel cell): none Hydrogen from US grid energy (w/ fuel cell): none Corn ethanol (E85 flex fuel vehicle): 20% Corn ethanol (E85 flex fuel vehicle): 20% Compressed natural gas (CNG vehicles): 20% Compressed natural gas (CNG vehicles): 20% 2004 gasoline hybrid: 25-35% 2004 gasoline hybrid: 25-35% Hydrogen from natural gas (fuel cell): 30-50% Hydrogen from natural gas (fuel cell): 30-50% Natural gas electricity (EV): 38% Natural gas electricity (EV): 38% Idealized hybrid incl. mass reduction: 60% Idealized hybrid incl. mass reduction: 60% Biodiesel: 78% Biodiesel: 78% Renewable hydrogen: <100% Renewable hydrogen: <100% Biogas: <100% Biogas: <100% Cellulosic ethanol: <100% Cellulosic ethanol: <100%

21 Fossil Hydrogen Reality Check Economic: Economic: –Barring regulatory controls, the free market will dictate that the lowest cost fuel inputs will be used to make hydrogen, e.g. coal –Excessive barriers to development of hydrogen vehicles/infrastructure, especially developing nations

22 Fossil Hydrogen Reality Check Technologic: Carbon storage for hydrogen produced from coal or natural gas steam reformation still unproven: Technologic: Carbon storage for hydrogen produced from coal or natural gas steam reformation still unproven: –Permanent sequestration may be a fantasy. Déjà vu - parallels to nuclear waste storage

23 Renewable Hydrogen Need to set minimum renewable hydrogen content requirementsNeed to set minimum renewable hydrogen content requirements Expensive on gas-equivalent basis, but price expected to fall dramatically in near-termExpensive on gas-equivalent basis, but price expected to fall dramatically in near-term As costs decline, percentage of renewable hydrogen to be increasedAs costs decline, percentage of renewable hydrogen to be increased

24 CA Climate-Friendly Car Law Round Two Gov. Schwarzenegger — friend or foe? Gov. Schwarzenegger — friend or foe? Regulations finished by Dec. 31, 2004 Regulations finished by Dec. 31, legislative review 2005 legislative review 2005 Auto industry lawsuit: federal preemption question 2005 Auto industry lawsuit: federal preemption question

25 The Need for a Global Fuel Mileage (or Vehicular GHG) Standard Growth projected from 600 million passenger vehicles in 2003 to 1 billion before 2020 Growth projected from 600 million passenger vehicles in 2003 to 1 billion before 2020 China now #2 in auto manufacturing China now #2 in auto manufacturing US transportation energy consumption increasing at 1.8% annual rate US transportation energy consumption increasing at 1.8% annual rate The EU projects dramatic increases The EU projects dramatic increases –By 2020, EU transport oil consumption is projected to grow 34% above 1990 levels

26 The Need for a Global Fuel Mileage (or Vehicular GHG) Standard Technologically viable with high efficiency technologies and lower GHG fuels Technologically viable with high efficiency technologies and lower GHG fuels Politically viable Politically viable –Increase national energy security plans –Decrease air and water pollution –Reduce capital outflows from oil importing nations –Force Big 3 to develop low GHG vehicles worldwide, undermining their arguments to Congress that they cannot build the same vehicles for the US

27 Permit delayed implementation for developing nations Permit delayed implementation for developing nations Force the auto industry to develop most efficient vehicles and utilize appropriate alternative fuel sources Force the auto industry to develop most efficient vehicles and utilize appropriate alternative fuel sources Achieve new vehicle emissions reductions of up to 60% by 2020 Achieve new vehicle emissions reductions of up to 60% by 2020 UNFCCC Should Consider Establishing Standards That:

28 Bluewater Network Bluewater Network promotes critical policy changes in government and industry to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and eradicate other root causes of air and water pollution, global warming, and habitat destruction. 311 California Street, Ste 510 San Francisco, CA www.bluewaternetwork.org


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