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Adrian StoneEnergy Research Centre 31st July 2012.

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Presentation on theme: "Adrian StoneEnergy Research Centre 31st July 2012."— Presentation transcript:

1 Adrian StoneEnergy Research Centre 31st July 2012

2 Introduction Work Commissioned by SANEDI SA Transport sector 28% of TFC. The Bulk (97%) is liquid fuels. This is 84% of national liquid fuel demand. (DoE, 2009) (IEA, 2011). Medium to long term (2050) future trends in demand for passenger transportation - different scenarios Medium to long term future trends in demand for freight transportation - different scenarios. Resulting demand for energy in scenarios. CO 2 emissions associated with each of the scenarios? 2 Transport Sector Model

3 Systems Dynamics Considerations 3 Transport Sector Model Source: Armenia, Baldoni, Falsini, & Taibi, 2010

4 Multi-Model Solution 4 Transport Sector Model Future Year Time Budget Model Projected P-km Mode-share WIDER CGE Model Projected Income of Household Deciles ANSWER TIMES Model Energy Demand Baseline P- km, T-km/ Mode-share Calibrated Vehicle Parc Model 3 Income Groups: Average km/h Public/private split Base Year Time Budget Model Future FE Assump.

5 Baseline – The Vehicle Parc Model 5 Transport Sector Model Vehicle Parc Model Vehicle Parc Model Vehicle km Fuel Consumption Fuel Consumption P-km, T-km/ Mode-share P-km, T-km/ Mode-share Scrapping Factor Scrapping Factor Vehicle Mileage/Decay Vehicle Mileage/Decay Fuel Economy/ Improvement Fuel Economy/ Improvement Occupancy NAAMSA Vehicle Sales NAAMSA Vehicle Sales Enatis Check SAPIA/EB Check SAPIA/EB Check Natmap/SOL Check Natmap/SOL Check

6 Mileage Decay Still a Guess 6 Transport Sector Model

7 TBM – The Gospel According to Victor & Schafer 7 Transport Sector Model

8 TBM – Simple Principle 8 Transport Sector Model

9 TBM – Salient Assumptions 9 Transport Sector Model Variable Traveller Group Low Income Middle Income High Income 1. All Modes T i (hours/day/person) Public - No Access to Car Fraction of Budget F ij 58% Average Speed S j (km/h)20 3. Public - Access to Car Fraction of Budget F ij 44%28%6% Average Speed S j (km/h)20 4. Private Annual HH Income Perc.50%30%20% Car Ownership/Access7%23%78% Fraction of Budget F ij 25%52%89% Average Speed S j (km/h)34

10 TBM – Refinements 10 Transport Sector Model TBM balances Vehicle Parc Model but Average Speeds seem v. low Even after adjusting mileage & occupancy in the VPM Philip G. measured 41 km/h in Jhb in extensive study Maybe giving way slightly on 1.1 hour justified

11 Freight Model – Balances Fuel but Poor Agreement with the SOL 11 Transport Sector Model ERC (UCT)State of Logistics (CSIR/US) Vehicle Type VPM Freight Utilisation (2006) SOL Freight Utilisation (2006) Freight Type (billion ton.km) LCV1458Metropolitan MCV964Rural HCV120108Corridor TOTAL144230TOTAL

12 Some Results 12 Transport Sector Model


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