Depreciation vs. Deflation YOY% Deflation (YOY%) Change over time in benchmark age/mileage. Always based on values at the SAME a/m. Gives a real sense of used car market changes. Can be modelled statistically. £ Depreciation Aging over time of an individual vehicle Gradual increase in age & mileage. Difficult to see used car market changes. Simplest method to systemise values for all age & mileage combinations.
YOY% Deflation Calculation Example – Used Value at 36/60 What is it worth now? CAP ID 38959 Ford Focus 1.8 TDCi Zetec 5dr H/B
What was it worth a year ago? YOY% Deflation Calculation
What is the YOY% deflation? YOY% Deflation Calculation Value today(Nov-13 1060 @ 60k) Value 1 year ago(Nov-12 0959 @ 60k) Change (£) YOY% Change 5925 6200 -275 -4.4%* * -275 / 6200 = -0.044
YOY% Deflation Indices Data for all CAP IDs captured – 36/60 value in each available month 36/60 value compared to previous month to give ID MOM% movement Total MOM% weighted according to registrations (from plate period) Index created from start point First YOY% created after 12 months Example – Lower Medium 36/60 Diesel
Some Other Market Metrics % List Price An entirely artificial construction Little or no relevance for analysis of used values Purely an analysis transformation tool Disposals tracking Inherent variation from all sources Very difficult to ascertain subtle market changes Heavily impacted by model changes Unweighted indices Not giving a true picture of the market
Regression Modelling Combined with editorial expertise for forecast generation Currently 71 input variables feeding into 9 ‘buckets’ GDP Inflation Unemployment Interest Rates Exchange Rates Total New Car Regns Sector New Car Regns Fleet Regns Fuel Prices ‘Regression Engine’ runs combinations of factors to determine best historical relationships Used Car market segmented by age & sector & fuel type
Upper Medium Diesel – 36/60 Good model, >85% of variation explained YOY% Model vs. Actual YOY %
Forecast Context Additional overlays & expert opinion applied Mileage curves applied to fill vertical values Seasonality applied to fill between annual values Walk-up relationships populate full model range 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 24 48 3612 60 Example – RV 12/20 CAP ID 40936 Vauxhall Insignia 2.0 CDTi Exclusiv 5dr H/B Take current Black Book 1262 @20k YOY% 1,D,UM Base forecast 12/20 Depreciation curve formed by applying future market forecast to current Black Book 10,200 -10% 9,175 Enhanced product to include full transparency of assumptions and will share intelligence - commentary to accompany all changes and new additions.
Benefits Combines statistical rigour with expert opinion & market intelligence Rooted in genuine Black Book value wherever possible Enables used & short term forecasts Productivity gains from Live Database – new models delivery quicker Provides a true independent benchmark residual value Clarity on end to end forecast methodology and rationale Enables breakdown of differences between Black Book and previous forecasts Creates a hub for future product development
Gold Book – Used Vehicle Forecasts Calculation is based on current used value of vehicle at final age by year Future deflation applied as per Gold Book new car forecast Model Life Overlay applied according to age of specific vehicle Editorial adjustment applied as per Gold Book new car forecast Forecasts calculated for intermediate plates Mileage curves applied – 5 defined bandings per sector
Gold Book – Used Vehicle Example Honda Accord Diesel Saloon 2.2i-DTEC ES 4dr CAP ID 39851 Required forecast is for an additional 24 months on a 1060 plate at 90,000 miles Final vehicle age at end of forecast period is 5 years Current (Nov-13) CAP Clean value for an 0858 plate vehicle at 100k is £5,900 Apply first 2 years’ deflation for a 5 year old Upper Medium Diesel vehicle Current master vehicle, so retain both ML and Editorial overlays This gives expected future value for the used vehicle at standard mileage Adjust according to mileage curve for required mileage (5 values tabulated – standard for this sector is 20k per year)
Monitor Sector Reforecasts ‘Half-Way House’ between traditional Monitor forecast and Gold Book methodology CAP Forecasting Team thinking in terms of new methodology Removal of previous Monitor macroeconomic weightings – generally increases for larger vehicles, flat or decreases for smaller vehicle sectors Attempt to minimise impact of switch to Gold Book Review of vehicles which had not been reforecasted for some time Updated analysis of relationships between key models in sectors Prompting better quality of conversation with manufacturers (eventually)
Gold Book Timetable Internal system now operational – first sector forecasts being generated As vehicle sector results are passed through QC, movements will be communicated to all customers Full Gold Book forecasts to be deadlined at end of November for December product No change to technical content of CAP products Gold Book iQ User Acceptance Testing during November Gold Book iQ to be released in the first week of December New vehicles to be published directly into product from January 2014