1. LABORATORY OF APPLIED THERMODYNAMICS ARISTOTLE UNIVERSITY THESSALONIKI SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING DEPT. OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING Laboratory Profile

2. General information Laboratory of Applied Thermodynamics (LAT)  Structure: Part of the Mechanical Engineering Dept., Energy Sector Aristotle University Thessaloniki  Housing: A total area of 600 m 2 in the University campus (testing facilities 400 m 2, offices 200 m 2 )  Personnel: ~20 engineers, 3 technicians and undergraduate students  Faculty Staff: Prof. Zissis Samaras (Director), Assoc. Prof. Grigoris Koltsakis, Emeritus Prof. Konstantinos Pattas  Turnover: ~600 k€ annually  Membership: Member of EARPA (European Automotive Research Partners Association)  Website:http://lat.eng.auth.gr

3. Scientific & research areas  Design and development of exhaust aftertreatment devices  Study of particle emissions from engines and aerosol technology  Engine & vehicle exhaust emissions measurement & characterization  Emission inventories and forecasts  Renewable energy sources, incl. automotive biofuels

4. LABORATORY OF APPLIED THERMODYNAMICS ARISTOTLE UNIVERSITY THESSALONIKI SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING DEPT. OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING EC4MACS - LAT

5. Questions to be answered  Available tools for EC4MACS  Use for policy analysis  Extensions foreseen in the coming years, additional insights  Which linkages to other aspects (outside the own modelling domain) could be of relevance?  Critical interfaces with other models  Questions

6. Our role in EC4MACS  Task 6:Transport scenarios  Period: Oct. 2006 – Sep. 2011  Actions  6.1: Update baseline transport projections  6.2: Alternative scenarios proposed by the Commission/stakeholders  6.3: Evaluate options, including uncertainty characterisation  Deliverables  6.1 Interim baseline transport projection (2007)  6.2 Interim assessment of alternative transport scenarios (2008)  6.3 Final baseline transport projection (2009)  6.4 Final policy scenarios (2010-2011)

7. TREMOVE Model  TREMOVE is a policy assessment model, designed to study the effects of different transport and environment policies on the emissions of the transport sector and was developed for Auto-Oil II Programme  Objective: Make available to the European Commission services a transport model  that is applied for environmental and economic analysis, up to 2020  of different policies and measures to reduce the atmospheric emissions (incl. greenhouse gases)  from all modes of transport (road, rail, aviation, maritime and inland waterways)  in the enlarged European Union  LAT is only a user and (so far), not a developer of TREMOVE

8. TREMOVE Developments

9. TREMOVE Development - TREMOVE II – Lot 3 (KUL)  Task 3.1 - Calibration of the TREMOVE model  Integrate of the most recent emission factors available at EU level (COPERT IV – ARTEMIS)  Validation of the data set of the model against the national statistics and forecasts used for NEC Co-operation with IIASA Meetings with Member States, to complement and detail the data and assumptions Adaptation of the model to the extent that it contributes to the validity of the model and does not hamper its internal consistency.  Revision of the baseline scenario fully consistent with the NEC Baseline + variant based on alternative national projections.  Task 3.2 - Simulation of 60 policy packages  Euro 5, Maritime, CO 2 +Cars (on-going), etc.  End of contract: 9/11/2006

10. TREMOVE III – Lot 1 (TML)  Develop source code & software structure (model speed, user interface)  Follow-up of “TRENDS-2” project (COPERT IV non-road modes, IPTS)  Allow easily introducing transport baseline data from alternative sources  Improve the dataset (best available level of detail and data quality)  Extension of the scope of TREMOVE to EU-27, CR, TU  Improve the structure of the model, so that behavioural responses are better reproduced in all modes.  Take into account the conclusions of independent model review  Organise ad-hoc seminars with the most relevant experts  Draft list of improvements:  Enable new modal substitutions / Endogeneous load factor and occupancy rates for all modes  Review and validation of the set of price elasticities and elasticities of substitution (EOS)  congestion/scarcity in non-road mode / Calibration of speed-flow relationships  Road vehicle 2nd hand Market  Revenue recycling options / MCPF  Revised TREMOVE baseline scenario at the end of the contract (3/2007)

11. TREMOVE III – Lot 2 (LAT)  60 policy scenarios with TREMOVE  Until June 2006: preparation use TREMOVE, definition scenarios  June/December 2006: TREMOVE runs for NEC Future Emission standards Technical measures on existing vehicles (Retrofit HDV) Non-technical measures (Scrapping / Bans) Full implementation Eurovignette provisions  Other Infrastructure charging (DG TREN) Fuel taxes

12. TREMOVE III – Review (MNP)  Independent and scientific review of TREMOVE  MNP, IEEP, IIASA, BIO  Assessment Check to what extent the structure of each module of TREMOVE provides a scientifically credible representation of the reality. Define the limitations and the implied system boundaries and explain to what extent may these restrict the validity of the conclusions and policy advice  Recommendations for improvements: Short term: to be implemented by TML before March 2007 Medium/long term: prepare further framework for model maintenance and improvement, after March 2007

13. EU Vehicle Database  Low quality current data on vehicle stock  Information about general aggregate categories only  little consistent information on age and technology distribution  very little information is available as regards disaggregated activity data.  Objectives:  Build a consistent and accurate database providing detailed information on the stock of vehicles at country or regional level, minimum each year 2000- 2005  Cover the requirements of TREMOVE, TERM and COPERT.  Define a methodology for the further regular update of the database.  Scope:  Al least TREMOVE 3 countries (EU27+4)  All modes, as well as non-road mobile machinery  Focus on road transport vehicle  Consistency checks (Transport volumes, traffic counts, fuel consumption)  Co-ordination (Eurostat, EEA, EMEP/CORINAIR, UNECE WP 6)  Duation: January – December 2007  Consortium: LAT, EnviCon, ICCS, KTI, Oekopol, Renault

14. Transport and Environment Database System (TRENDS)  Project funded by the European Commission Directorate General for Transport and Energy  Partners Participating in the Project:  Laboratory of Applied Thermodynamics/LAT  Denmark Technical University/DTU  ΨΑ-Consulting/Austria  INFRAS/Switzerland

15. TRENDS Main Modules Road Transport - LAT/AUTh  Railway - DTU  Maritime and Inland Shipping - DTU  Aviation - ΨΑ-Consulting  Transport Activity Balance (TAB) - INFRAS  Calculation of Waste and Noise produced by Road Transport - INFRAS

16. Methodological Steps for Road Transport  Creation of Appropriate Data Bases  System Dynamics Module  Extrapolate Main Vehicle Categories  Simulate Vehicle Turnover  Produce Input Tables for COPERT  Spatial Disaggregation  Urban, Rural, Highway  Temporal Disaggregation  Yearly, Quarterly

17. Input Data used for TRENDS - Road Transport module  Statistical data for 15 EU countries from 1970 to 1997  Vehicle populations (PCs, commercial vehicles, buses and two- wheelers)  Vehicle density  Saturation values  Vehicle split - According to fuel and engine type  Lifetime functions

18. Spatial and Temporal Disaggregation of Vehicle Emissions  Spatial Disaggregation  Emission Results Produced by TRENDS Allocated to EU15  Cities  Highways  Rural Areas  Statistical Data Provided by GISCO  Production of GIS Maps  Temporal Disaggregation  Seasonal Distribution of Emission results

19. Spatial Disaggregation of Vehicle Emissions: CO urban rural and highway emissions for Germany (1995)

20. COPERT  Copert is a methodology and a software tool to calculate emissions from road transport  Its development has been supported by the European Environment Agency  Input for methodology updates have been several European projects in the area of emissions. The most well known have been:  The Corinair activity  The MEET/Cost 319 projects  The Artemis/Particulates cluster  JRC/CONCAWE activities on fuel evaporation  The UNECE Task Force on Emission Inventories  LAT has been the main developer over the recent years but Copert is considered a collective development of many individuals/organizations

21. COPERT Usage  Auto - Oil II: Copert based forecast scenarios run on behalf of ACEA to estimate emission evolution up to 2015  EMEP/CORINAIR: COPERT III methodology is the road transport and off-road machinery emission chapter in the UNECE’s Emission Inventory Guidebook  EEA Activities: National and Central Estimates for Air Emissions from Road Transport  TERM : Transport and Environment Reporting Mechanism (Commission - Eurostat, DG TrEn - EEA)  TRENDS: Development of a Database system for the Calculation of Indicators of Environmental Pressure Caused by Transport (DG TrEn study) supported by EEA COPERT Auto Oil II TREMOVE ACEA EMEP Guidebook TERM TRENDS National Inventories Individual Use STEERS (CONCAWE)

22. Copert III field of applications National level (Europe)  Official National Inventories:  Belgium Flemish (C. De Bosscher, VMM, Erembodegem) Wallon (I. Higuet, DGRNE, Namur) All (M. Squilbin, BIM, Brussels)  Bosnia (Martin Tais, Federal Meteorological Institute)  Croatia (Zeljko Juric, Ekonerg, Zagreb)  Cyprus (Chrysanthos Savvides, Min. of Labour, Nicosia)  Denmark (Morten Winther, RISOE, Roskilde)  Estonia (Natalje Kohv, Env. Inf. Centre, Talin)  France (Jean Pierre Chang, Paris)  Greece (Demetra Koutendakis, Nat. Obs/tory, Athens)  Ireland (Paul Duffy, EPA, Dublin)  Italy (Riccardo de Lauretis, ANPA, Rome)  Luxembourg (Thewes Frank, Lux. EPA, Luxembourg)  Moldova (Victor Ambroci, Nat. Cent. Env Monit.)  Slovenia (Alenka Fritzel)  Spain (Antonio Chao, AED SA, Madrid)

23. Comparison of Structure TREMOVE-TRENDS ModelDemand Module Stock ModuleEmission Module TREMOVE (v2.44b) PRIMES+ Elasticities on the basis of basecase Foremove+Copert 4 TRENDS (2004 Version) Gompertz function (no interface with policy) Foremove+Copert 4

24. Comparison of the different models available COPERTTRENDSTREMOVE Current Version4, v.3.0.0Feb 2004II, v2.44b Geographical rangeApplicable to any countryEU15EU15+6 Time span1970-2020 1995-2020 Vehicle categoriesAnnex A Annex B Transport modesRoadRoad, air, rail, maritime Vehicle activityNo activity data Population, mileage, age, speed Vehicle emissions Road 17 pollutants Road 11 pollutants (Based on COPERT) Off-road 8 pollutants Road 11 pollutants (Based on COPERT) Off-road 7-10 pollutants depending on mode Current use in production of TERM indicators TERM 27 and 28TERM 03, 27, 28, 32 and 34TERM 33 Outlook COPERT 4 continuously improving based on EEA funding. New version expected Sept. 2007 Call on off-road module by JRC IPTS. Future TRENDS development still open. V2.5 being finalized to include EU25 coverage up to 2030.

25. Further Development of TREMOVE/TRENDS/COPERT  TREMOVE: v2.5 finalized on 9/3, covering EU27+4 up to 2030, including Copert 4 emission functions  TRENDS: Call (6/2006) from JRC/IPTS focusing mainly on emission factors for non-road modes (won by TRT Milan)  COPERT: Continuous funding from EEA/ETC ACC enough to support development on the methodological and software fronts  Currently TREMOVE is supported by DG ENV, Copert by EEA and TRENDS by EUROSTAT and JRC  There is discussion to transfer all responsibility for further development to JRC (IPTS/IES)  Future development plans to be decided in the months to come

26. Linkages and interfaces  These have been already historically developed and will be further enhanced in this project  Rains/Gains  Primes  CAFÉ/Auto Oil  Accent/Geia  …