Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

EPA’s Plan for MOVES: A Comprehensive Mobile Source Emissions Model John Koupal, Harvey Michaels, Mitch Cumberworth, Chad Bailey, Dave Brzezinski U.S.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "EPA’s Plan for MOVES: A Comprehensive Mobile Source Emissions Model John Koupal, Harvey Michaels, Mitch Cumberworth, Chad Bailey, Dave Brzezinski U.S."— Presentation transcript:

1 EPA’s Plan for MOVES: A Comprehensive Mobile Source Emissions Model John Koupal, Harvey Michaels, Mitch Cumberworth, Chad Bailey, Dave Brzezinski U.S. EPA Office of Transportation and Air Quality 12th CRC On-Road Vehicle Emissions Workshop San Diego, California April 15, 2002

2 MOVES zMultiscale zmOtor zVehicle & equipment zEmission zSystem

3 MOVES “Use Cases” zMulti-scale analysis yMacroscale Inventories (EPA Reports, SIPs) yMesoscale Inventories (SIPs, Conformity) yMicroscale Analyses (e.g. hot spot / project level) zTransportation/AQ model linkage zPolicy evaluation zModel validation and uncertainty zModel updates and expansion

4 Judging the Shootout zCriteria 1: Performance yOn-Road Validation x3 independent vehicles/ 6 trips each for LD & HD xPrediction of trip-average emissions across all pollutants yOff-Road Validation xSame 3 equipment pieces, 1 additional hour of operation xPrediction of total emission across 3 equipment pieces zCriteria 2: Feasibility of Application

5 Summary Results: On-Road Average Percent Difference From Trip Mean Across All Pollutants

6 Summary Results: Off-Road Average Percent Difference From Trip Mean Across All Pollutants

7 Observations zVSP is an excellent metric for characterizing emissions zEmpirical modal binning approaches simple & effective yVSP Binning yModal Bins / OLS zDatabase approach hurt by small dataset zAggregate approach may be sufficient for off- road

8 Assessing Feasibility Criteria Preliminary Conclusion: Modal binning shows most overall promise for MOVES

9 Applying Modal Emissions Macroscale Mesoscale Microscale Avg Speed by Facility Type Avg Speed by Link Second-by- Second Drive Trace Mode Distribution Modal Emission Rates Total Emissions Driving Cycle (Default or custom) Running Exhaust Process x

10 Phase 2 Evaluation zCompetitive contract (one award) zEvaluate binning methods on several data sources xLaboratory second-by-second (EPA MOBILE6 Cycles) xOn-Board Data (Shootout) xIM240 Data (Denver) xRSD Data (CRC Denver 2000) xLaboratory bag (CMEM Dataset) zEvaluate uncertainty methodologies zValidate with independent test results

11 Emission Processes

12 Generic Core Model Design zCore model steps (apply to any scale/source/process): 1. Estimate total activity e.g. Vehicle Hours Operating (VHO) 2. Distribute across fleet bins/operating modes e.g. Mileage Bin, VSP Bin 3. Get emission rate for each fleet bin/operating mode e.g. Gram/Second emission rate by Mileage Bin, VSP bin 4. Aggregate across all fleet bin/operating modes  (Total Activity * Frequency BIN/MODE * Emission Rate BIN/MODE ) zAdd front & back ends to implement use cases Loop By Space & Time

13 MOVES Data Flow Overview Macroscale Mesoscale/ Microscale Exporters Core Model Importers Default County Data User- Supplied Data Emission Rate Data Total Emissions and/or Emission Factors Travel Model or Observation

14 Model Quality zNew EPA guidance on model quality planning requires Quality Assurance Project Plan: yModel quality objectives and assessment yCoding and documentation standards yStakeholder and scientific peer review zEPA Peer Review Guidelines yRecommends Independent Peer Review Panel

15 Implementation Plan zInterim Product: Fall 2002 yMacroscale (county-level) inventory generation w/ MOBILE6.3 and NONROAD zGHG On-Road Implementation: Fall 2003 yCO 2, Air Conditioning HFCs, N 2 0, CH 4 yMacroscale only zFull On-Road Implementation: Fall 2005 yAdds HC, CO, NOx SOx, PM, NH 3, air toxics yMesoscale/Microscale capability

16 Next Steps zPlanning Documents yConceptual Design & Theory: Summer 2002 yEmission Analysis Methodology: Fall 2002 yQuality Assurance Project Plan: Fall 2002 zMore Information yhttp://www.epa.gov/otaq/ngm.htm yPosted soon: xShootout - Contractor Reports and EPA Overview/Results xEPA-OAQPS Emission Inventory Conference Paper


Download ppt "EPA’s Plan for MOVES: A Comprehensive Mobile Source Emissions Model John Koupal, Harvey Michaels, Mitch Cumberworth, Chad Bailey, Dave Brzezinski U.S."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google