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The Case for Nuclear James Conca, Director of the Center for Laboratory Sciences R J Lee Group, Pasco, WA 6.5 tkWhrs/year by mid-century.

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Presentation on theme: "The Case for Nuclear James Conca, Director of the Center for Laboratory Sciences R J Lee Group, Pasco, WA 6.5 tkWhrs/year by mid-century."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Case for Nuclear James Conca, Director of the Center for Laboratory Sciences R J Lee Group, Pasco, WA 6.5 tkWhrs/year by mid-century in the United States with the ⅓ - ⅓ - ⅓ (fossil-nuclear-renewable) mix will cost $7.4 trillion to implement beginning in 2014 of which $3.4 trillion is capital investment. However, this mix uses half of the fossil fuel and the health care savings alone (~$3 trillion) more than pay for the extra investment over the baseline Costs include construction, O&M, fuel, waste disposal (including nuclear waste) and D&D, but does not include externalities such as carbon and physical footprints, distribution costs, or changes in fuel prices, which favor nuclear and $4/mcf Gas cf = 80% 4.8¢ Normalized Total Life Cycle Costs for each source over 60 years – actual costs in 2012 dollars Nuclear cf = 92% 3.5¢ Wind cf = 27% 4.3¢ Solar cf = 20% 7.7¢ Coal cf = 71% 4.1¢ Hydro cf = 44% Cents per kWhr 10¢ 12¢ 14¢ 8¢ 6¢ 4¢ 2¢ 3.3¢

2 How much does it cost to build a unit/farm/array that will produce 469 billion kWhrs over its lifespan? Billions of Dollars 2012($) Construction Costs to produce similar power (469 bkWhrs) function of installation cost, installed capacity (kW), capacity factor (cf), lifespan, 8,766 hours/year $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 $14 $16 Wind cf = 27% $15 b Solar cf = 20% $35. 1 b Nuclear cf = 92% $7 b $40 Gas cf = 42% $3.2 b Coal cf = 71% $6. 2 b Hydro cf = 44% $7. 5 b $1.5 million 1 MW GE turbine with a cf = 27% and lifespan = 20 yrs 1 MW x 1000 kW/MW x 0.27 x 8,766 hrs/yr x 20 yrs = 47 million kWhrs  to produce 469 billion kWhrs  9,978 units at $15 billion $3 billion 600 MW hydroelectric with a cf = 44% and lifespan = 80 yrs 600 MW x 1000 kW/MW x 0.44 x 8,766 hrs/yr x 80 yrs = 185 billion kWhrs  to produce 469 billion kWhrs  2.5 units at $7.5 billion $820 million 880 MW natural gas CC with a cf = 42% and lifespan = 40 yrs 880 MW x 1000 kW/MW x 0.42 x 8,766 hrs/yr x 40 yrs = 130 billion kWhrs  to produce 469 billion kWhrs  4 units at $3.2 billion $2.5 billion 750 MW coal plant with a cf = 71% and lifespan = 40 yrs 750 MW x 1000 kW/MW x 0.71 x 8,766 hrs/yr x 40 yrs = 187 billion kWhrs  to produce 469 billion kWhrs  2.5 units at $6.2 billion $300 million 92 MW thin film solar with a cf = 20% and lifespan = 25 yrs 92 MW x 1000 kW/MW x 0.20 x 8,766 hrs/yr x 25 yrs = 4.0 billion kWhrs  to produce 469 billion kWhrs  117 units at $35.1 billion $7 billion 980 MW AP-1000 GenIII nuclear with a cf = 92% and lifespan = 60 yrs 980 MW x 1000 kW/MW x 0.92 x 8,766 hrs/yr x 60 yrs = 469 billion kWhrs  to produce 469 billion kWhrs  1 unit at $7 billion Key assumptions for different energy systems from recent builds and buys cf Lifespan Inst. Cap.Inst. CostsSource Coal years750 MW$2.5 billion Nevada Energy Natural Gas years880 MW$0.82 bil TVA Nuclear years960 MW$7.0 billion Westinghouse Wind years1 MW$ bil Shell Wind Division Solar years92 MW$0.3 billion NRG Energy Hydro years600 MW$3.0 billion Susitna Hydro Project Reference spot prices: Oil - $70/b Coal - $40/t NG - $4/mcf Steel - $500/t Copper - $2.50 /lb Cement - $70/t What will it cost to produce this much energy? (actual costs, not financing costs, subsidies, production credits, mandates) -when comparing, costs must be corrected for capacity factor and lifespan These costs produce good-paying, but short-term jobs (1 to 6 years) more local jobs for the baseload sources ¾ local 4-5 years > half local 2-3 years 90% local 5-6 years < ¼ local 2 years < ¼ local 3 years 90% local 5-6 years

3 2012($) Fuel Costs per kWhr Produced Coal - $40/t NG - $4/mcf U - $100/lb yellowcake Nuclear cf = 92% 0.6¢ Wind cf = 27% 0¢0¢ Solar cf = 20% Gas cf = 42% 4¢ Coal cf = 71% 2¢ Hydro cf = 44% Fuel Costs Cents per kWhr 5¢ 6¢ 4¢ 3¢ 2¢ 1¢ 0¢ These costs produce almost no local jobs (unless you’re a fuel supplier in that town)

4 Cents per kWhr 2012($) O&M Costs per kWhr Produced Nuclear cf = 92% 1.3¢ Wind cf = 27% 1.0¢ Solar cf = 20% 0.1¢ Gas cf = 42% Coal cf = 71% 0.6¢ 1.0¢ 1.2¢ 1.4¢ 0.8¢ 0.6¢ 0.4¢ 0.2¢ Hydro cf = 44% 0.8¢ O&M Costs 0.5¢ 1.6¢ These costs produce good-paying, long-term local jobs (20 to 60 years) longer-term for the baseload sources


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