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Calculating Deaths 1/Lifespan versus Death Rate

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How Long Do We Live? National Center for Health Statistics http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/releases/02facts/final2000.htm Average US Lifespan: 76.9 years Age-Adjusted Death Rate: 872/100,000

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Population Model #1a Deaths = 1/Average Lifespan * Population

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Population Model #1b Deaths = Death Fraction * Population

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What Should We Use As the Death Fraction? Dwell time model –Use 1/Lifespan: 1/76.9 =.013003901 –Assumes population evenly divided into age groups. Age-adjusted model –Death Rate =.00872 –Takes into account age-specific death rates and “averages” over age groups.

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What Will Be the Difference in the Long Run?

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