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Experts' Seminar on Ageing and Long-Term Care Needs LSE, Friday, 20 May 2011 The longevity revolution Jean-Marie Robine INSERM, Paris & Montpellier, France.

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Presentation on theme: "Experts' Seminar on Ageing and Long-Term Care Needs LSE, Friday, 20 May 2011 The longevity revolution Jean-Marie Robine INSERM, Paris & Montpellier, France."— Presentation transcript:

1 Experts' Seminar on Ageing and Long-Term Care Needs LSE, Friday, 20 May 2011 The longevity revolution Jean-Marie Robine INSERM, Paris & Montpellier, France

2 How many newborn are becoming adults?

3 How far will the adult longevity go up?

4 Halley, first life table, 1693

5 Sweden, , data sent by Wargentin to Deparcieux

6 Switzerland,

7 Japan,

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9 Japan

10 How long are adult life durations? Modal length of life (M) Standard deviation above M Maximum life span Distribution of the ages at death in Switzerland , ,

11 Life expectancy, median life and modal age at death, Switzerland from 1876 Cheung et al, 2006

12 Japan

13 Japan

14 Compression of or shift in mortality ?

15 Increase in the modal length of life (M), since 1751: a selection of 7 countries

16 Correlation between the modal lenght of life (M) and the mean deviation above (eM) in 4188 life tables since 1751, males and females – (HMD)

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18 Change in the modal length of life and in SDM+ for women in Japan from to Cheung and Robine, 2007

19 Change over time in the distribution of the ages at death in France since 1827, female - for newborn

20 Emergence of the centenarians & Strong increase in the numbers of the oldest old people

21 Change in the number of centenarians in Europe vs Japan

22 More than 40,000 centenarians in Japan in August 14, 2010

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24 Change in the number of centenarians in Europe vs. Japan

25 Europe vs. Japan Robine and Saito, in press

26 Divergence, variability and uncertainty

27 Divergence in life expectancy at age 65

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29 The centenarian rate in Europe Robine and Saito, 2009

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33 Are centenarian people healthy people?

34 The few representative studies of centenarians have demonstrated that they are in relatively poor health with a significant proportion being bedridden and/or demented – only 1% of Italian centenarians are fully independent – none of them continued social or productive activities that could be considered as examples of successful ageing On the other hand several studies suggested that these extremely old people were in relatively good health 5 or 10 years before (Christensen et al, 2008). Differential mortality must have eliminated the frailer dependant nonagenarians.

35 Are older people more likely to become centenarians because they are in better health or because it is much easier to survive today? In Denmark, where the number of centenarians is increasing relatively slowly, the functional health status of female centenarians (100) significantly improved over the last decade (Engberg et al, 2008). On the other hand in Japan, where the number of centenarians has increased more than 3-fold every decade since the 1970s, occasional centenarian surveys demonstrated significant declines in the functional health status of Japanese centenarians.

36 Are older people more likely to become centenarians because they are in better health or because it is much easier to survive today? In Denmark, where the number of centenarians is increasing relatively slowly, the functional health status of female centenarians (100) significantly improved over the last decade. On the other hand in Japan, where the number of centenarians has increased more than 3-fold every decade since the 1970s, occasional centenarian surveys demonstrated significant declines in the functional health status of Japanese centenarians.

37 The Five Country Oldest Old Project (5-COOP): Relationships between the level of mortality selection and the health status of the oldest old Denmark, France, Japan, Sweden & Switzerland Robine et al, Centenarians today: New insights on selection from the 5-COOP study. CGGR 2011

38 The oldest old support ratio

39 World wide decline in the oldest old support ratio As the number of people aged for each person aged ≥ 85

40 Mortality trajectory

41 Mortality trajectory with age

42 Robine & Vaupel, 2005 Mortality trajectory…

43 Robine & Vaupel, 2005 Mortality trajectory…

44 Robine & Vaupel, 2005 Mortality trajectory…

45 Robine & Vaupel, 2005 Mortality trajectory…

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47 Thank you for your attention!

48 Experts' Seminar on Ageing and Long-Term Care Needs LSE, Friday, 20 May 2011 The longevity revolution Jean-Marie Robine INSERM, Paris & Montpellier, France

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50 Change in the distribution of ages at death for women in Japan from to Cheung and Robine, 2007

51 Change in the distribution of ages at death for women in Japan from to Cheung and Robine, 2007

52 There is no evidence that the maximum human life span has changed from what it was about a hundred thousand years ago… … If the human life span is really increasing, then, for example we might find that the oldest humans were reaching the age of 100 years in 1850, 115 years in 1900, and 120 years in This would be good evidence that maximum life span is increasing, especially if large numbers of people in each period reached these very old ages. Hayflick, 1996

53 Number of oldest old in Japan by 5-year age group

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