Presentation on theme: "Sociology SOCI 20182 Demography of Russia and the Former Soviet Union Dr. Leonid A. Gavrilov, Ph.D. Dr. Natalia S. Gavrilova, Ph.D. Center on Aging NORC."— Presentation transcript:
Sociology SOCI 20182 Demography of Russia and the Former Soviet Union Dr. Leonid A. Gavrilov, Ph.D. Dr. Natalia S. Gavrilova, Ph.D. Center on Aging NORC and The University of Chicago Chicago, Illinois, USA
Please visit the course website http://course.health-studies.org/2010/
Russia now The largest country in the world by the area (United States is the 3rd) The 2nd country by the number of immigrants (after the United States) The 10 th rank by population number - 141,377,752 people on July 2007 (United States has the 5 th rank)
Russia now The 10 th economy by GDP (CIA World Factbook). But only 75 th by per capita GDP ($14,600) The third largest reserves of foreign exchange and gold - $470 billion (after China and Japan) The largest reserves of natural gas The second in the world by oil production but the 9 th by oil reserves
Russia: Location and Size Russia is the world’s largest country – 17,075,000 sq. km (6,592,819 sq. mi.). It is almost twice as large as Canada, the second largest country. Russia has a tremendous east-west extent – from the westernmost point near Kaliningrad (formerly Königsberg, 20º31’E) in the Baltic Sea; to the easternmost point at Cape Dezhnev (170º W) on the Bering Straits.
Russia: 11 Time Zones! At the same moment it is: 6:00 AM in Kaliningrad 9:00 AM in the Ural Mountains 1:30 PM in Vladivostok A little after 5:00 PM at Cape Dezhnev The time difference between Kaliningrad and Cape Dezhnev is more than twice the difference between New York and London (five hours) and nearly four times the difference between New York and San Francisco (three hours).
Russia: Vegetation and Soils Tundra – extensive, treeless plains; inceptisols. Taiga -- coniferous forest; spodosols, alfisols. Mixed Forest – coniferous and deciduous trees Broadleaf Forest – Southern Far East Russia, mostly deciduous trees. Steppe – Short grass prairie; mollisols, (chernozem –black earth) Desert – Clump grasses and xerophytic plants; aridisols
Russia: Resources Russia has a rich resource base. One of the most important mineral producing countries with widely scattered deposits. Russia leads the world in the production of natural gas and lead. Russia also leads the world in iron ore reserves and natural gas reserves. Russia is second in the production of platinum, tungsten, aluminum and vanadium.
Russia: Population Distribution Russia’s population is unevenly distributed. Most of Russia’s population is located in “European Russia,” or the western one-fifth of the country. Overall arithmetic density is very low, 8.5 persons per square kilometer (22 persons/sq. mi.). The areas of highest population density are the lowland of the Trans-Caucasus, the Moscow area, and the middle Volga lands. Most of the taiga, tundra, and desert areas have densities of one person per sq.km. (two persons or less per sq. mi.)
Russia: Political Geography Following the election of Vladimir Putin as President in March 2000, one of his first moves was to turn Russia into “a single economic and legal space.” In May, he issued a presidential decree which divided Russia’s 89 republics and regions into seven new “federal districts.” Central (Moscow), Far Eastern (Khabarovsk), North Caucasus (Rostov-na-Donu), Northwest (St. Petersburg), Siberia (Novosibirsk), Urals (Yekaterinburg), and Volga (Nizhny Novgorod). Each of these was to be headed by a plenipotentiary representative appointed by the President.
Weakness of Tsar Nicholas II The ruler of Russia was Tsar Nicholas II. He was an absolute monarch, meaning that he had total power in Russia. Nicholas was a weak man. He used his secret police, the Okhrana, to persecute opponents. Books and newspapers were censored. The Church supported the Tsar – the ‘Little Father of the Russian people’. Nicholas II ruled a vast country that was almost medieval in comparison to other countries. The Tsar’s undemocratic government was a major cause of the revolution.
Population of the Russian Empire In 1897 Russian Empire was not a paradise: Life expectancy: Males -- 29.4 years. Females -- 29.4 years. (10-20 years less than in Western countries at the same time period) Infant mortality: 30.3% (1.5 - 3 times higher than in Western countries at the same time period) Urban population -- 17% only Total fertility rate -- 7 births per woman
Population of the Russian Empire was growing rapidly
World War I, 1914-1918 Russia entered World War One on 1 August 1914 but did not remain until the conflict's ultimate conclusion in November 1918.
The February Revolution of 1917 and Bolshevik Revolution of October 1917 In March 1917, without the support of the army, the Tsar was forced to abdicate and a Provisional Government was set up under Prince Lvov and Kerensky. Lenin believed that this new government was weak and would not impose communism on the Russian people. In October 1917, Lenin and Trotsky led an armed uprising against the Provisional Government. His aim was to take control of Russia and turn it in to a communist country. The February - and then October - Revolutions of 1917 directly led to Russia's departure at the war, albeit at the cost of a punitive peace treaty (at Brest-Litovsk).
Population of European part of Russia in 1914-1918 All population – black solid line; source: Volkov, 1930.
War Communism The state took control of the factories and appointed managers to run them. Work was hard and long, food was rationed to only those who worked and trade unions were banned. To get enough food, the Cheka seized all surplus grain from the peasants. The peasants hid food or preferred to grow less rather than give it away free to feed the towns. War Communism was a disaster. In all areas, the economic strength of Russia fell below the 1914 level. Drought and famine hit Russia in 1921 – over 4 million people died.
Russia in Civil War (1918-1921) and famine 1922-1923 Life expectancy in Petrograd (St. Petersburg) in 1920: Males -- 20.5 years (loss of 10.5 years compared to pre-war period 1910-1911) Females -- 26.3 years (loss of 12 years compared to pre-war period 1910-1911) The Russian famine of 1921, better known as Povolzhye famine, which began in the early spring of that year, and lasted through 1922-1923: Loss of 5 million people. The most affected regions: South Volga region ( "Povolzhye"), Northern Caucasus, Southern Ukraine On the right: Poster “Help!”
Population of European part of Russia in 1918-1922 All population – black solid line; source: Volkov, 1930.
The U.S.S.R. December 1922 – Soviet Union was created
Russia in NEP (1923-1927) New Economic Policy (NEP), 1923-1927: Partial return to market economy Just in 4 years life expectancy increased by 5 years Life expectancy in 1928: Males -- 35.9 years Females -- 40.4 years Then catastrophic decline in 1933, with slow recovery by 1940 Collectivization and Industrialization (1929 onward) (selling produced food abroad in order to buy machines) Hunger 1932-1933 (while continuing selling grain abroad) started with dry and hot summer 1932
Collectivization Agriculture is developing slowly, comrades. This is because we have about 25 million individually owned farms. They are the most primitive and undeveloped form of economy. We must do our utmost to develop large farms and to convert them into grain factories for the country organized on a modern scientific basis. (Stalin, 1928)
Collectivisation In the late 1920s, Russia suffered a food crisis. To feed starving workers, Stalin ordered the seizure of grain from the farmers. But, just as happened under War Communism, the peasants hid food or produced less. In 1929 Stalin announced the collectivisation of farms. The most common was the Kolkhoz in which land was joined together and the former owners worked together and shared everything. Stalin persuaded peasants to join by attacking the Kulaks, peasants that had grown as a result of the NEP. Collectivisation had limited success and a terrible human cost, between 10 to 15 million people died as a result. Between 1931 and 1932, there was a famine in Russia as not enough food was being produced. By 1939, Russia was producing the same amount of food as it had in 1928. Collectivisation was clearly a disaster and the problem was even worse as its population had increased by 20 million - all of whom needed feeding. "
Soviet Famine of 1932-1934 Had big impact on population growth in the Soviet Union Street of Kharkiv in 1933
Rate of population decline during the famine of 1932-1933
Urbanization of Russia in the 1930s 1 – urban population; 2 – rural population
But despite these appalling tragedies, there were some positive aspects to Stalin’s rule. For example schools were built and social insurance schemes were introduced. Russia became a modern industrial country. The effects of Stalin’s rule on men and women Millions of people suffered in Stalin’s purges – workers, peasants and members of the Communist Party itself. There was brutality, persecution, executions and forced labour. Millions died of starvation and over- work. The shops were empty ; clothes were dull and badly made and household items difficult to find.
The Great Patriotic War 1941-1945 As was the case with the Napoleonic Wars, the Soviet Union emerged from World War II considerably stronger than it had been before the war. Although the country suffered enormous devastation and lost more than twenty million lives, it had gained considerable territory and now ranked as one of the two great world powers along with the United States.
Population losses during the WWII and Famine of 1947 On January 1, 1941 (before the war) Russian population was 111 million After the WWII Russian population decreased by 13.6 million (loss by 12.3%) Famine of 1947: 0.5 million died in Russia (totally 1 million in the USSR)
Khrushchev rule 1958-1964 The new power emerging in the Kremlin was Nikita S. Khrushchev (1958– 1964), first secretary of the party. The Soviet Union exploded a hydrogen bomb in 1953, developed an intercontinental ballistic missile by 1957, sent the first satellite into space (Sputnik I) in 1957, and put Yuri Gagarin in the first orbital flight around Earth in 1961.
Khrushchev rule Khrushchev's downfall stemmed from his decision to place Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba and then, when challenged by the U.S., backing down and removing the weapons. He was also blamed for the ideological break with China after 1963. Khrushchev was forced into retirement on Oct. 15, 1964, and was replaced by Leonid I. Brezhnev as first secretary of the party and Aleksei N. Kosygin as premier.
1964-1982 - Brezhnev era “the stagnation period” U.S. president Jimmy Carter and Brezhnev signed the SALT II treaty in Vienna on June 18, 1979, setting ceilings on each nation's arsenal of intercontinental ballistic missiles. The U.S. Senate refused to ratify the treaty because of the invasion of Afghanistan by Soviet troops on Dec. 27, 1979. On Nov. 10, 1982, Leonid Brezhnev died.
1982-1985 Yuri V. Andropov, who had formerly headed the KGB, became his successor but died less than two years later, in Feb. 1984. Konstantin U. Chernenko, a 72-year-old party stalwart who had been close to Brezhnev, succeeded him. After 13 months in office, Chernenko died on March 10, 1985. Chosen to succeed him as Soviet leader was Mikhail S. Gorbachev.
Components of population growth in Russia, 1927-2006 Green- Natural increase; Pink – increase due to migration; Source: Demoscope Weekly
Publication on the history of Russian population before 1959 The most detailed publication on the topic is available in Russian: Andreev, E.M., Darsky, L.E., Kharkova, T.L. “Demographic History of Russia: 1927-1957”, Moscow: Informatika, 1998 (available online at Demoscope Weekly)
Overview of the course The main objective of this course is to teach you methods of the study of population taking into account the specifics of data registration and population processes in the countries of the Former Soviet Union.
Basic demographic measures and sources Lecture #3. Basic population concepts. Population number and population distribution. Population growth: rates and components. Depopulation. Population structure and its types. Population pyramid. Population structure by marital status, urban/rural status, education status and ethnicity. Synthetic and real cohorts. Lecture #4. Sources of data about population. Population censuses. Statistics of births, deaths, marriages, and divorces. Migration statistics. Population surveys. Health statistics. Where to find data on population? Please visit a webpage on population data resources (at course website).
Fertility and family in Russia Lecture #5. Fertility measures and concepts. Theories of demographic transition. Factors affecting fertility. Structure and types of reproductive behavior. Demographic transition in Russia and its specifics. Lecture #6. Trends in fertility and natural increase. Quantitative estimates of reproductive norms. Reproductive health of Russian women. Abortions in Russia. Past and current trends in marriage and divorce rates. Studies of family in the Soviet Union and Russia.
Mortality and health in Russia Lecture #7. Measures of mortality, the concept of life table. The theory of epidemiologic transition. Epidemiologic transition in Russia and its periods. Mortality reversal. Changes in infant mortality. Adult mortality trends and differentials. Lecture #8. Factors affecting mortality. Alcohol consumption and mortality in Russia. Gorbachev's anti-alcohol campaign and its effects on mortality. Yeltsin's "market reforms" and mortality crisis. Current situation with mortality in Russia. Lecture #9. Causes of death and their classification. Major causes of death in Russia. Lifestyle of Russian men and women and its effect on health. Measures of population health. Current threats to population health. Health care system in Russia and health care reform.
Migration Lecture #10. Migration and its effects on population growth and population structure. Forced migrations in the Soviet Union. Migration flows after the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
Population aging Lecture #11. Population aging in Russia and the Former Soviet Union. Measures of population aging. Major causes of population aging. Lecture #12. Elderly in Russia. Socio- economic consequences of population aging. Demographic dividend. Pension reform.
Special topics February 17. Lecture #13. Ethnic differences in mortality. February 22. Lecture #14. Violent crime in Russia and its effect on population. February 24. Lecture #15. Overview of world population policies. Population policies in contemporary Russia. Fertility policies. Mortality policies. Regulation of migration flows.
Population growth and development in the Former Soviet Union Lecture #16. Population development in the countries of the Former Soviet Union. Student presentations. Lecture #17. Population development in the countries of the Former Soviet Union. Student presentations.