Presentation on theme: "Soda Ash Industry Global Overview 2014-15. Global Chemical Industry shift from Developed economies to Developing economies Asia Pacific (including China)"— Presentation transcript:
Soda Ash Industry Global Overview 2014-15
Global Chemical Industry shift from Developed economies to Developing economies Asia Pacific (including China) to gain from this shift Complexities in China to help India becoming a manufacturing hub.
Soda Ash : Global Demand – Supply (2014) North America Capacity 12.50 Prod. 12.00 Demand 5.30 South America Capacity 0.200 Production 0.150 Demand 2.700 Africa Capacity 1.16 Production 0.80 Demand 1.20 CIS (Russia & Ukraine) Capacity 4.70 Production 4.00 Demand 3.50 Australia Capacity 0.35 Production 0.00 Demand 0.50 China Capacity 32.00 Production 26.00 Demand 24.00 India Capacity 3.00 Production 2.50 Demand 2.75 Middle East Capacity 0.700 Production 0.500 Demand 1.700 Europe Capacity 12.00 Production 11.00 Demand 10.50
Indian Soda Ash Manufacturing - Facilities
END USE Consumption Pattern – Global Vs India
Growth Projection India – Soda Ash Consumers
Global Overview China Total capacity touches 32 Million Tons which is 10 times of India's soda ash production capacity. Production around 25 Mil Mt. Cap Utilisation 77/78% Despite excess glass capacity in China the capacity build up continues, a total of 245 flat glass lines operating in China, where there are only 7 in India. With the slow down in Chinese Economy there is a marginal softening of prices. Remains the major threat for India. US / North America ( Natural Soda Ash ) Production reaches 11.5 Million MT. Domestic demand grows by only 1% Exports grow by 5% mainly to Asia & South America. The US producers ie. Tata/ Nirma have diverted some volumes to India in current year Natural SA has a huge cost advantage over the conventional process making the US producers competitive globally.
Europe Total capacity is 12 MMT produced in 25 plants in 15 countries including Turkey. IHS forecasts that after a 0.4% decline in 2013, Euro-zone real GDP will increase 1.1% in 2014 and 1.5% in 2015. Cost pressures forced Soda Ash plants in UK/Portugal to closure. European producers viz Ciech / Solvay increase export volumes to India as they attract the lowest ADD. Turkey with Natural Soda Ash reserves will be a threat to the rest of the producing countries on account of their cost advantage & location AFRICA, ASIA & MIDDLE EAST TCL has shutdown their Pure Soda Ash plant at Magadi (Capacity 3.5 Lac MT/annum) due to unsustainable operational cost. Penrice permanently closed its Soda Ash production facility in Australia. Asia led by India is the only area showing growth signs. Global – Overview
INDIA 2013-14 INDUSTRY HIGHLIGHTS While Domestic Demand in 2013-14 has been flat, growth of 5/6% expected in 2014-15 & + 5% growth predicted going forward. Domestic consumption is approximately 3.1 Million MT ( 2.7 MMT market demand + 0.4 MMt internal ). With a production of only around 2.6 MMT, balance demand met by Imports. China/ US / Europe / Kenya are the major exporters to India, major growth in India is captured by Imports. Flat Glass prices improve as Glass manufacturers get ADD protection on ME / Saudi /Pakistan. Ghari has announced a Soda Ash plant at Village Kuranga – Dwarka. ( Likely to take between 3 to 4 years ) Nirma & GHCL also examining expansion. Anti Dumping Duties will be applicable till Mid 2017 hence we have to work our over-all costs to remain competitive going forward. India - Overview
END SECTOR MACRO INDICATOS & PLAYERS : - Mix of Global, National and Regional Players : Fragmented Market.