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Update on the RFE Energy Sector and the RFE LEAP Modelling Effort Olga DEMINA, Natalia LOMAKINA, Alexey NOVITSKIY Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern.

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Presentation on theme: "Update on the RFE Energy Sector and the RFE LEAP Modelling Effort Olga DEMINA, Natalia LOMAKINA, Alexey NOVITSKIY Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern."— Presentation transcript:

1 Update on the RFE Energy Sector and the RFE LEAP Modelling Effort Olga DEMINA, Natalia LOMAKINA, Alexey NOVITSKIY Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Khabarovsk, Russia 2010 East Asian Science and Security Project Meeting “Energy Futures and Energy/Minerals Cooperation in the Northeast Asia Region” September 22-24, 2010, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China 1

2 Outline 1. RFE’s Energy Sector: Current Status, Energy Demand & Supply Trends 2. Recent National and Regional Energy Policy Initiatives and Priorities 3. Large-Scale Energy Projects in the Far East of Russia 4. Russia and Far East Nuclear Power Sector 5. RFE Team’s LEAP Activities 2

3 1. RFE’s Current Status, Energy Demand & Supply Trends 3

4 National Energy Sector: main trends in between the two crisis periods Energy sector share in the russian economy (2008): about 25% of GDP, more than 48% of total taxes, more than 68% in total export income and 28% in total investments. GDP Energy intensity decline (2000-2008): total GDP growth 65%, extraction and production of energy resources growth - 26%, energy intensity of GDP - 66,9%. Positive production growth rates (2000-2008 ): increase in production of major energy resources – coal by 68 mln ton (26,4%), oil by 164 mln ton (50,6%), natural gas by 80 bln cubic m (13,7%). Strengthening of external incentives for development (2000- 2008): Domestic consumption of energy grew 10%, energy exports volume 1,5 times (from 545,4 mln tce to 813 mln tce). 4

5 Energy sector of Russian Far East. Characteristics of Energy and Fuel Supply Macro-structure Energy consumption is relatively small by size and spread over large territory; Increased transaction costs for production and supply of energy; Independent supply and consumption within many local territories; Lack of developed transit and distribution infrastructure; Energy consumption structure is relatively diversified but primarily based on coal; Limited choice opportunities for energy consumers; Prefferability of monopoly structures in the supply sector. 5

6 Far East energy sector. Major energy production centers Sakha republic (Yakutia) (bituminous coal, natural gas) Sakhalin region (oil, natural gas) Amursky region (hydro energy) 6

7 Far East Energy Sector. Major export commodities Coking coal and steam coal of South Yakutia Sakhalin oil Oil products of Khabarovsky region refinery plants Amur region electricity supplies to border regions of China. 7

8 Energy Supply in the Russian Far East: Current Trends Energy Production*2005200620072008 Volumes as of 2008 Electricity101.2100.898.5102.9 41.7 trillion kWh Heat98.1 101.7100.297.3 67.8 mln Gcal Crude Oil, including Condensate 111.5147.8231.789.4 13.6 mln tones Natural Gas 97.9109.0208.8121.0 9.8 bln cubic m Coal102.699.199.6100.9 32.3 mln tones Oil Refining115.8101.3106.2102.8 11.3 mln tones * % to previous year 8

9 Major energy resources extraction dynamics in the Far East 2000-2008 9

10 Structure of installed capacity Russia vs Russian Far East TypeRUSSIAFAR EAST mln kWt% % Coal TPP6203227.5676346.6 Gas TPP899464012848.8 Oil TPP31021.3813129 Nuclear PP2330410.3480.3 Hydro PP + RE4715621511535 TOTAL22554114522 10

11 Final Energy Consumption structure by type of energy 2000 vs 2008 11

12 Power Plant Fuel Consumption structure by type of fuel in 2002, 2007—2008. Russia Far East 12

13 Emissons of pollutants into atmosphere as result of fuel based power and heat production 2008 (thousand ton) Total emission Pollutants Hard particles Sulphur dioxide CO 2 Nitrogen oxides Сarbohy drates Russia5763,61615,31663,31233,11221,230,7 Far East724,9246,7171,3206,592,97,5 Share of Far East in Russia, % 7,9515,210,216,77,624,4 13

14 Positive trends in the development of Far East Energy Sector (2004-2008) New electricity generating capacity added: Bureyskaya HPP, 4 th unit of Khabarovsk CHP-3, Mobile gas turbine plant at Vladivostok CHP-2. A network of transmission lines 500 kW. Settled structure of strategic companies-operators and baseline terms for operation of the basic regional fuel and energy markets. GDP growth does not lead to high demand of energy. The balance of energy output and capacity in the Eastern United Power Grid and local energy systems is satisfactory. Improved balance of supply and demand of boiler and furnace fuels 14

15 Strategic Problems Technological and economical isolation of Far East energy systems from the national energy and capacity markets is unchanged. Mechanisms of strategic control over energy sector are at the stage of development. Deterioration (wearoff) of energy equipment and facilities (about 70% of equipment is physically and technologically old). Unstable operation of community energy services Isolated energy supply in northern regions of Far East, caused by geographic and economic conditions, lowers the economic efficiency and technological stability of energy supply. Lack of deep consideration of regional development problems during the implementation of large-scale projects, with regard to the pacific direction of energy resources export. 15

16 Economic crisis impact on FE energy sector Electricity consumption decline in Russia – by 4.7%, in Far East – by 1.65% and dynamics was mixed, depending on the region. Recovery since late 2009. Production of major energy resources in 2008 compared to 2007: oil – reduced by 11%, gas – increased by 21%, coal – up by 4%. 16

17 2. Recent National and Regional Energy Policy Initiatives and Priorities 17

18 OTHER: –Scheme of the complex development of productive forces, transport and energy of Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) until 2020 (approved 2007) The system of official strategic and program documents 1.General social & economic development strategies and programs in the Far East Strategy for economic & social development of the Far East and Baikal region up to 2025 – approved December, 2009 Federal Program for Social and Economic Development of the Far East and Trans-Baikal area up to 2013 (underway since 2008) 18

19 General scheme of the gas industry development until 2030 (under development) General scheme of electric power industry installations until 2020 (approved!) General scheme of development of the oil industry 2020 (under development) Eastern Gas Program Program of creation of the unified system of gas production, transport and gas supply in East Siberia and the Far East with potential gas export to the markets of China and other APR countries (approved 2007) Program of long-term development of Far East energy sector until 2020 (under development) Strategy for development of electric power industry in the Far East until 2020-2025 (not yet approved) ENERGY STRATEGY OF RUSSIA UNTIL 2030 (APPROVED NOVEMBER 13, 2009) NATIONAL LEVEL REGIONAL LEVEL involving FAR EAST National Energy Efficiency Program (waiting approval) Corporate Strategies and Programs The system of official strategic and program documents 2. Energy related development strategies and programs 19 Strategy for development of nuclear power industry of Russia until 2007-2015 (approved 2007)

20 NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY PRIORITIES MAIN DOCUMENT: ENERGY STRATEGY OF RUSSIA UNTIL 2030 ONE OF MAJOR PRIORITIES: “Eastern orientation” 1)Diversify energy export destinations and commodity structure  Oil export share to APR will rise from 8 to 15% by 2022 Gas export share – from 0% to 16% New Oil and Gas processing in the Far East (Yakutia, Primorsky region, Sakhalin) 2) International cooperation and strengthening positions of national companies abroad Joint exploration, extraction, processing and distribution: ROSNEFT, LUKOIL, GAZPROM & CNPC, SINOPEC, KOGAS, KNOC, etc. Asset swapping approach (?) 3) Energy efficiency Decrease GDP energy intensity by 40% in 2007-2020 4) Increase the share of renewable energy (in the total electricity production from 0.5% to 4.5% by 2030) 5) Switching to export of final energy products rather than raw 20

21 SUPPLY SIDE EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS COAL PP 34  38% GAS PP 38  50% NUCLEAR PP 32  34% Decrease overall tce/kWth 335  300 g COAL GASIFICATION technology More gas turbines with 51-57% efficiency Decrease Electricity Transmission Loss 13  10% MAIN DOCUMENT: FEDERAL LAW ON ENERGY EFFICIENCY (NOV 23, 2009)  NATIONAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY PROGRAM UNTIL 2020 (not yet approved) ENERGY EFFICIENCY as a national priority REGIONAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY PROGRAMS in regions of FAR EAST are under development! 21

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24 Far East Energy Demand: prospective changes Expected new large-scale projects Amur region National space port Ore Mining and Smelting Plant Oil Refinery Aluminium plant Olekmin hydrometallurgical processing plant ESPO expansion (including branch to China) Kuranah iron ore deposit Cement plant Jewish Autonomous regio n Kimkan-Sutar iron ore deposit Bridge over Amur river Timber processing facilities Magadan region Natalka,Degdekan, Pavlik, Igumen deposits Yano-Kolim gold mining area Several mining facilities Sakhalin island Cement plant Metal processing facilities Oil and Gas Processing facilities Primorsky region Russkiy island projects Oil refinery (Nakhodka city area) ESPO - 2nd part Kozmino oil port facilities Yakutia Oil and Gas deposits (Talakan, Chayanda) Elga coal deposit Elkon Uranium deposit Kuranah and other iron ore deposits Khabarovsky region Khabarovsk and Komsomolsk oil refinery expansion Oil processing facilities Coal enrichment plant Ore enrichment facilities Cellulose plant 24

25 RFE Energy Cooperation with China OILROSNEFT-CNPC 48.4 mln t contract for 2006-2011 +LUKOIL-SINOPEC 3mln t contract for 2009-10 +export of oil products: fuel oil 2011-2031 ROSNEFT-CNPC 15 mln t/y (may be increased to 30 mln t/y) Transported by ESPO pipeline via branch “Skovorodino-China” GASPrice negotiations to finish in 2010-2011 Possible start of export via “eastern” route – by 2015 Via “western” route– by 2018 Source - Yakutia gas deposit COAL2008 – 0.76 mln ton exported, 2009 – 12 mln ton exported May increase after 2013 due to ELGA coal project (up to 27 mln t/y) Main supplier – MECHEL ELEC- TRICITY 2009 – 0.8 bln kWth exported 2010 forecast – 1 bln kWth From 2013– 4-5 billion, By 2020 – up to 60 billion kWth OTHER13 mln t Joint Refinery in Tianjin, China + 500 petrol stations ($5 bln) 10 mln t Joint Refinery in Primorsky region, Russia – UNDECIDED JOINT EXPLORATION: Veninsky block (ROSNEFT+SINOPEC)

26 RFE Energy Cooperation with Japan OILExported from Sakhalin-1 since 2006 and Sakhalin-2 since 1999 Total export in 2009 – 5.3 mln t Since 2010: start of export from ESPO pipeline GASSince 2009 - Sakhalin-2 (LNG) long-term contract for about 6 mln ton/y COALIn 2009 - about 2mln ton exported Possible expansion after 2013 (ELGA coal deposit) ELEC- TRICITY NA OTHERJoint exploration LPG WIND PP (Russky island) 26

27 RFE Energy Cooperation with ROK OILFrom Sakhalin-2 since 1999, From Sakhalin-1 since 2006 Possibly ESPO and/or oil products after 2014 GASIn 2009 – 0.6 mln ton LNG, Since 2010 – 1.5 mln ton/y LNG Source: Sakhalin-2 Prospective: Vladivostok-South Korea gas pipeline - since 2014 up to 10 BCM COALSince 1996 small volumes from EREL deposit Since 2010 – 5 year contract 0,3 mln ton/y Since 2010 – 5 year contract 1,3 mln ton (HYNDAY+POSCO) Possible expansion after 2013 with ELGA coal deposit ELEC- TRICITY Primorsky region-Korean Peninsula power exports project – JSC “INTER RAO UES” + KEPCO *stopped since 2009 due to DPRK issues OTHERJoint exploration of West Kamchatka Shelf Joint development of South Yakutia coal mines (Kolmar – LG) 27

28 3. Major Large-Scale Energy Projects in the East of Russia 1.Sakhalin projects 2.ESPO pipeline -Taishet-Skovorodino (stage 1) – complete! -Skovorodino-Kozmino (stage 2) – under construction -Skovorodino-China border – complete! 3.Eastern Gas Program  in the Far East - 2 major gas pipelines Sakhalin-Khabarovsk-Vladivostok Yakutia – Khabarovsk Vladivostok-Korean Peninsula – ??? 4.Gas processing, gas liquidation and chemical processing facilities (Yakutia, Primorye) 5.“Elga” large coal deposit (Yakutia) 6.Electricity exports to China 28

29 Sakhalin-1 Deposits: Chaivo, Odoptu, Arkutun-Dagi (oil - 300 mln tons, gas – 485 bln cub m) Participants: ExxonMobil (30 %), ROSNEFT, ONGC (20 %), SODECO (30 %) Chaivo oil and gas production started in October 2005; oil exports – since October 2006 Since 2007 – oil production at full capacity Currently: Oil exported to Japan, South Korea; Gas supplied to Khabarovsky region 2009: total produced oil 8,2 mln ton, gas 9,4 bln cub m; Target for 2010 – 7,5 mln ton Expectations: Odoptu start of oil production – end of 2010 (up to 1.5 mln t/y); Arkutun-Dagi – since 2014. 29

30 Sakhalin-2 30 Deposits: Piltun-Astohsky and Lunsky oil & gas fields (oil - 176 mln tons, gas - 618 BCM) Shareholders: Gasprom (50%+1), Royal Dutch Shell (27.5% minus 1), Mitsui (12.5%), Mitsubishi (10%) Since December 2008 - oil extraction is year-round; for 2010 target ~7 mln ton Feb 2009 – first LNG production line was launched, May 2009 – second line was launched, current LNG capacity 9,6 mln t/y Since March 2009 – LNG is exported (long-term contracts ~25 years) mainly to Japan (~60%), ROK, but also to China, India, Kuwait, Taiwan 3 rd production line or 2 nd LNG plant are under consideration

31 Other Sakhalin offshore Sakhalin-3 – Veninsky block - currently: exploration (ROSNEFT + SINOPEC) - 165 mln t and 313 BCM – Kirinsky gas deposit – geological exploration by Gazprom, start of gas production in 2011 Sakhalin-4 (West-Shmidtovsky block) – In March 2009 ROSNEFT & BP returned license after unsuccessful drilling - deposits not discovered yet Sakhalin-5 (Kaigano-vasyukansky & East-Shmidtovsky) – East-Shmidtovsky: In 2009 after conducting geological analysis ROSNEFT & BP returned license without drilling – deposits not discovered yet – Kaigano-vasyukansky: geological exploration (ROSNEFT & BP) – 56 mln ton of oil and 30 BCM of gas discovered so far – not enough for commercial extraction Sakhalin-6 (Pogranichny block) Western shelf of Kamchatka peninsula (ROSNEFT & KNOC) In 2009 licenses for exploration granted to Gazprom – Sakhalin-3 (Kirinsky, Ayashsky, West-Odoptinsky blocks) 31

32 Far East Offshore Oil & Gas Projects Sea of Okhotsk Kamchatka offshore area Kamchatskaya Oblast’ Magadanskaya Oblast’ SAKHALIN-6 SAKHALIN-5 Kaigansko- Vasyukanskiy Ayashskiy Vostochno- Odoptinskiy Veninskiy Kirinskiy SAKHALIN-5 Vostochno- Shmidtovskiy SAKHALIN-3 Хабаровский край Magadan offshore area Western Kamchatka place Khabarovsk offshore area Sakhalin SAKHALIN-1 Chaivo Arkutun- Dagi Odoptu SAKHALIN-4 Zapadno- Shmidtovskiy Khabarovskiy Krai PACIFIC OCEAN Pil’tun- Astokhskoe SAKHALIN-2 Lunskoe - Page 32

33 Eastern Siberia – Pacific Ocean Oil Pipeline (ESPO) 1 st STAGE – completed in 2009 Route: Taishet (Irkutsky region) – Skovorodino (Amursky region) Capacity is 30 mln ton/y Current operating capacity – 15 mln ton/y Currently transported to Kozmino by RAIL for export to Japan, Korea. 2 nd STAGE – will be completed by 2014 (till then – by RAIL) Route: Skovorodino (Amursky region) – Kozmino Oil Port (Primorsky krai) – 2100km Overall ESPO capacity is 30 mln t/y, possibly up to 50 Expansion of Kozmino Oil Port Branch to China In 2009 oil export contract signed for 15 mln /t for 20 years since 2011 Skovorodino-China Border - complete in August 2010 Daqing (China) -China Border – will complete in October 2010 Start of operation – November 2010 33

34 Eastern Siberia – Pacific Ocean Pipeline 34

35 Eastern Gas Program  Underway since September 2007  4 centers of gas extraction: Northern Sakhalin, South-Western Yakutia, Irkutsk area and Krasnoyarsk area  In the Far East - 2 major pipelines  Gasification of Far East territory (local gas pipeline networks)  Gas Liquidation and Processing Centers (Yakutia, Sakhalin, Primorsky region)  Large expansion of gas exports eastwards Creation of integrated system for producing and transporting gas in East Siberia and Russia's Far East with the possibility of exporting gas to China and other Asia-Pacific countries 35

36 Eastern Gas Program (underway since 2007) Ultimately - export of ~50 BCM of natural gas to China and Republic of Korea 36

37 1. Sakhalin-Khabarovsk-Vladivostok Construction started in July 2009 Will start operation in Q3 2011, Capacity - 6 BCM m3 Full expected capacity – 35 BCM by 2016 Primary Source: Sakhalin-3 (Kirinsky block, Gazprom) – since 2014 Primarily for domestic demand of Far East 2. Yakutia-Khabarovsk Will be constructed in 2012-2016 and joined with Sakhalin- Khabarovsk-Vladivostok pipeline Capacity: up to 25 BCM Primary Source: Chayanda gas deposit in Yakutia, start supply in 2016 Gas supply primarily for exports Eastern Gas Program: Planned Gas Pipelines *Vladivostok-Korea Peninsula pipeline project (Gazprom & Kogas signed agreement in 2009, route research is underway) 37

38 “Elga” Coal Deposit Coking coal deposit of 2 billion ton License granted to “Mechel” By 2011 “Mechel” will complete the construction of railroad access – 315 km, $1.3 bln Production will start in late 2010 Target for 2011 – 1 mln ton, since 2013 – 9 mln ton By 2018 will reach final output target of 27 mln t/y 38

39 Prospective Electricity Exports CHINA In 2006 – 523 million kWth, then paused from Feb 2007-March 2009 In 2009 - 800 million kWth exported In 2010 forecast – 1 billion kWth From 2013 – 4-5 billion kWth By 2020 – up to 60 billion kWth OTHER PRIMORSKY REGION - KOREAN PENINSULA SAKHALIN- JAPAN Gas Turbine Power Plant, export via cable under sea 39

40 LARGE-SCALE ELECTRICITY EXPORT TO CHINA Possible export volume – 60-70 billion kWh in 2020 40

41 4. Russia and Far East Nuclear Power Sector 41

42 Russia’s Nuclear Power Sector Bilibinskaya NPP (2008)Russia: 10 NPPs, 31 power units with total capacity of 23,3 GW (10.3% that of Russia), electricity production of 163.1 bln kWh (15.7% that of Russia) – 15 Pressurized water reactors (9 VVER-1000 & 6 VVER-440) – 15 Boiling Water Reactors (Channel type, 11 RMBK-1000 & 4 EGP-6) – 1 Fast Breeder Reactor BN-600 42

43 Bilibinskaya NPP – CHP Single small Russia’s NPP of public utility Provides ~30% of electricity & heat supplies in Chukotka, ~0.4 % of those in the RFE Actual Capacity Factor 39.1%, 4 EGP-12 reactors (G-I) were commissioned over 1974-1976  Lifetime period of the units as designed had to be completed in 2004-2006  After auditing the lifetime period was prolonged up to 2019-2021 (subject to unit)  Based on the Federal Program on Nuclear Energy Sector Development up to 2015 it is scheduled to decommission BNPP over 2019-2021 43

44 Nuclear Energy Development in the RFE Based on General Plan for Electric Power Industry up to 2020 it is planned to construct two NPPs in the RFE over 2016-2020 – Pevekskaya Floating NPP with 70 MW (KLT-40S) to replace Bilibinskaya NPP in Chukotskiy Autonomous Okrug – Primorskaya NPP with 600 MW (2 x VBER-300) to meet the increase in domestic power & electricity demand Primorskaya NPP could be constructed by IPP to supply New aluminum plant planned in Primorskiy Krai Up to 2016 in Russia it is planned to produce 7 KLT floating reactors. 44

45 Pevek and Chersky Floating NPPs Capacity 70 MW ×4 Expected period of construction 2016- 2020 45

46 Floating NPP 46 Length: 140, Width: 30, Height: 10 Construction period: 4 years Capacity: 70 MWt (power), 50 MWt (heat) Power Output: 455 mln kWt/y Heat Output: 350 000 Gcal/y

47 Yakutia The investment plans of placing Floating NPP at 4 sites: -Tiksi; -Ust-Kuiga; -Chersky; -Yurung-Khaya 47

48 Floating NPP comparative efficiency Floating NPP efficiency Comparative costs of electricity and heat production Ratio of costs based on fossil fuel to those of Floating NPP ElectricityHeat Tiksi3,542,53 Ust-Kuiga6,23,6 Yurung-Khaya52,9 Chersky7,134,3 Production costs NPP unit 12 MW2,64 rub/kWth936 rub/Gcal NPP unit 70 MW1,85 rub/kWth936 rub/Gcal 48

49 Elkon uranium ore deposit Estimated capacity up to 5,000 tons of uranium per year. Investment in the project are estimated at 90.5 billion rubles Construction on the field will start in late 2010 - early 2011. 49

50 5. RFE Team’s LEAP Activities 50

51 RFE’s Team Modeling Activities Goals set in 2007  To complete properly of conversion dataset used from LEAP2004 to LEAP2008  To move to new base year (2002  2006)  To integrate possible nuclear energy facilities into “Nuclear Max” Energy Path  To model final energy demand in the context of large-scale energy- intensive projects (the problem of incorporation) LEAP modeling in 2010  Transforming LEAP2004 dataset to LEAP2008  New base year 2008  Partially disaggregate final demand by industries  Changes to Transformation  Considered three alternative scenarios: Reference Scenario Resource-transit Scenario Energy Efficient Scenario 51

52 RFE Energy Supply Adjustments to the supply (transformation) structure - RFE divided into: North, South and Sakhalin Updating to 2008 base year Addition/correction of large-scale energy supply projects Addition/correction for exports 52

53 RFE Energy Demand Sectors: manufacturing, population, transport, public sector, service sector. Manufacturing, transport, service sector: with fuel demand for subindustries. Population and public sector : with fuel demand by geographic area for heat and electricity. 53

54 RFE Final Energy Consumption (2008) 54

55 LEAP modeling: Reference Scenario Moderate economic growth (4-5%) Slowing of population decrease Average annual growth rate of energy consumption – 2.8% 55

56 LEAP modeling: Resource-Transit Scenario Active economic growth (7-8%) Stabilization of population Implementation of all large export projects currently planned Significant growth of extraction and processing of regional natural resources (petroleum, gas, coal, ores, metals, forestry, fisheries). Stronger cooperation between Far East and APR countries Average annual growth rate of energy consumption - 4,2% 56

57 RFE new added power capacity by 2020, MWt REFERENCERESOURCE-TRANSIT RFE NORTH HYDRO+2670+1500 NUCLEAR+70+176 RFE SOUTH (UES VOSTOK) COAL PPs+3600+2640 HYDRO+621+200 NUCLEAR+600 SAKHALIN REGION COAL PPs+900 GAS PPs+800 TOTAL+7561+6216 57

58 RFE Prospective Energy Supply 2008 (fact) by 2020-20222030 OIL PRODUCTION, mln ton 13.830-3132-33 GAS PRODUCTION, BCM 9 (incl. Sakhalin -7) 65-67 (36-37) 85-87 (50-51) COAL PRODUCTION, mln ton 3239-4644-57 58

59 Energy-efficient scenario Key social & economic indicators are similar with that of Resource-Transit Scenario. Supply side: – Higher efficiency of PPs – new construction & replacement  (coal 44%, gas 50%, nuclear 34%) – Decrease electricity transmission loss to 10% – Maximum renewable energy (possibly up to 4.5%) – Maximum nuclear energy Demand side: – Decline in energy intensity in ALL sectors according to targets set in the National Energy Saving Program until 2020 – The impacted sectors are: Industry, Households, Transport, Public Sector, Service Sector 59

60 Thank you for attention 60

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