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1School of Systems and Enterprises Stevens Institute of Technology, USA ES/SDOE 678 Reconfigurable Agile Systems and Enterprises Fundamentals of Analysis, Synthesis, and Performance Session 1: Course Overview and Introduction to Agile SystemsFile1.3School of Systems and EnterprisesStevens Institute of Technology, USA
2Introductions Your background? What do you do here? FileYour background?What do you do here?Why do you want a Master of SE degree?Expectations from this course?Current passionate pursuits?
3Guest Speaker: Joe Justice Team WikiSpeed 12Nov2011• TEDx Rainier Seattle, Washington (File10)Joe Justice and Team Wikispeed hand build a new deliverable street-legal, 100+ MPG car every 3 months, with new subsystem iterations every 7 days: 0-60 mph in 5 seconds, 149 mph top speed, with a sexy you-want-it carbon fiber sports car body. All done by a remote collaboration agile development process with volunteers working nights and weekends from many countries around the world.They satisfy critical safety regulations, and develop innovative technologies to solve automotive issues that exceed what is available from the major manufacturers.You don’t want the sports car body? They’ll make you one with a truck body, or a family-car body, whatever, under $20k. You want a different engine? They can swap out whatever is there for another one in the time it takes to change a tire.Video and audio at: Transcript at:
4Supports the CSEP exam (Certified Systems Engineering Professional) 4. Technical Processes (for instance) 4.1 Stakeholder Req. Def. Process 4.2 Requirements Analysis Process 4.3 Architectural Design Process 4.4 Implementation Process 4.5 Integration Process 4.6 Verification Process 4.7 Transition Process 4.8 Validation Process 4.9 Operation Process 4.10 Maintenance Process 4.11 Disposal Process 4.12 Cross-Cutting Technical Methods Systems engineering is a discipline that concentrates on the design and application of the whole (system) as distinct from the parts. It involves looking at a problem in its entirety, taking into account all the facets and all the variables and relating the social to the technical aspect. (Ramo) Systems engineering is an iterative process of top-down synthesis, development, and operation of a real-world system that satisfies, in a near optimal manner, the full range of requirements for the system. (Eisner)Supports the CSEP exam (Certified Systems Engineering Professional)Members $20, or free e-downloadVersion 3.2 January 2010
5Enables and Constrains "…the development of a basic idea and the first embodiment of the idea; these two initial activities are often called invention and are usually not part of the engineering of a system…"Dennis BuedeEarly Conceptual WorkEnables and ConstrainsSystem PossibilitiesBuede's book addresses the procedures and processes that turn concept into reality. That is the process part ofSystems Engineering
6Systems Engineering Life Cycle Models INCOSE Systems Engineering Handbook, V 3.1, p 3.5
7ISO/IEC 15288–2008Systems and software engineering — Life cycle processesAgreement ProcessesAcquisitionSupplyOrganizational Project- Enabling ProcessesHuman ResourceManagementLife Cycle ModelManagementInfrastructureManagementProject PortfolioManagementQualityManagementProject PlanningProject Assess and ControlDecision ManagementRisk ManagementProject ProcessesConfiguration ManagementInformation ManagementMeasurementStakeholder Requirements DefinitionRequirements AnalysisArchitectural DesignImplementationTechnical ProcessesIntegrationVerificationTransitionValidationOperationMaintenanceDisposalSpecial Processes19 Processes of Interest to the INCOSEAgile SE Life Cycle Model projectTailoring
8Asynchronous-Stage Agile SE-Life Cycle Framework Systems and software engineering — Life cycle management — Part 1: Guide for life cycle management ISO/IEC TR :2010(E)Diagram of textSection (p. 32):“… to convey the idea that one can jump from a stage to one that does not immediately follow it, or revert to a prior stage or stages that do not immediately precede it.”“Further, the text in the model indicates that one applies, at any stage, the appropriate life cycle processes, in whatever sequence is appropriate to the project, and repeatedly or recursively if appropriate.”“While this may seem to be a total lack of structure, indeed it is not.”“Rather, the structure has well defined parts that can be juxtaposed as needed to get the job done, flexibly but still in a disciplined manner, just as a real structure would be created.”(added stage)ResearchUse processes to observe and evaluateenvironmental evolution,and how that presentsthreat or opportunityRetirementUse processes to remove from use, dispose of & archive (sub) systems-of-interestConceptUse processes to define& explore alternativesolutions to meet a needAgile SE LCMCriteriaEngageSupportUse processes to maintain, supply and supportsystem-of-interestDevelopmentUse processes to transformconcepts and systemrequirements onto adocumented, costed,producible prototypesystem-of-interestUtilizationUse processes to operate, monitor and evolve system-of-interest, its services and infrastructureProductionUse processes to produce and improvesystem-of-interestand evolve infrastructureSeven asynchronously-invoked stages can be engaged repetitively and simultaneously to achieve benefit when engagement criteria are met
9Purpose-Content-Objectives-Methods Purpose – Agile responsiveness is wanted in systems at the forefront of competition, enterprise, strategy, warfare, governance, innovation, engineering, information, integration, and virtually anything designed today for purpose.Content – Fundamental objectives, performance metrics, analysis frameworks, and engineering principles for agile systems – from products and processes to information and infrastructure to enterprises and systems-of-systems.Objectives –1) to develop a working knowledge of tools and methods for requirements development and design synthesis of agile systems.2) to develop domain independent patterns of agile systems that provide a foundation for intuitive knowledge.Methodology – Real agile systems are analyzed in case studies for their change proficiency and response ability. Response capability frameworks are applied in analysis and requirements development. Agility-enabling architectures and principles are illuminated and then applied in synthesis exercises. Hands-on, minds-on exercises prepare and guide the application of knowledge.
10Setting ExpectationsAll slides in course material will not be reviewed/presented/discussed, …they are there to draw upon as appropriate, and for later reference.Some slides not in the regular course material will be employed, …for case studies as emerging interests indicate.Some slides are very dense and not screen-viewable at a distance, …they augment the text with reference material viewable on your PC.This is not a Systems Engineering Process course, …those are available under appropriately different course titles.This course focuses on design and engineering concepts, …that enable responsive/adaptable systems.Various thinking-tools and thinking-disciplines are introduced, …thinking fruitfully is a creative activity, not a procedure.This is not a software-systems engineering course, …nor focused on any other specific systems domain.
11Learning Opportunity X-Ray Vision Architecture Design Methodology Conceptual Design MethodologyDomain Independent PrinciplesLearning requires three things:1) Your belief that value exists in the learning2) Your desire to learn3) Some similarity to what you already knowWarnings:1) Examples will generally not be your system types2) Abstract thinking is the purpose3) Enabling creative innovation is the aim4) Comfortable comprehension does not occur in a few days
12AdministrativeEach SDOE module contains the equivalent content of a traditionally taught, thirteen week graduate course. The compressed lecture schedule employed by SDOE enables students to complete the classroom portion of a course over five, eight-hour days. While this format provides greater flexibility to the full-time professional student, it also requires a particular focus on student attendance. Therefore, the SDOE Attendance Policy is as follows: Time Missed Approver Make-Up Work < 4 Total Hours Course Instructor Discretion of Instructor 4-8 Total Hours Associate Dean, Assignment Consistent Professional Programs with Missed Time > 8 Total Hours Associate Dean, Student May be Required Professional Programs to Repeat Course In any event, the student is accountable for all presented material and class direction.The graduate grading cycle:A A- B+ B B- C+ C C- F
13Arrivals and Departures Classroom ClassBreaksParticipationInterruptionsArrivals and DeparturesReadings and Homeworkand Web SurfingProject TeamingPeer ReviewsPhones
14Readings, References, Text Text book: Response Ability – The Language, Structure, and Culture of the Agile Enterprise, Wiley, 2001.Relevant inter-session readings will be suggested during the course.--some are necessary--A reference list is provided for additional and continued self-study, with Internet links where available.
15Downloadable Reference Materials Additional materials and case studies will be selected for use during class.Many are available for download from:Tool templates for use during class should be on your CD.They are also available for download from the URL referenced above.These downloadable materials change over time.…so what will be found there in the weeks following classmay be different than what is there during class.
16Best Before Unit Starts SDOE 678Web Links and Useful Reading for Indicated Session – Need Before Unit StartsUnit 1Book: Preface and Chap 1, pgs 3-30 (entire chapter)Essay: Assembly Lines Built Just In TimeUnit 2Book: Chap 2, pgs (up to ADAPTABLE CULTURE section)Essay: Fixtures Built While You WaitUnit 3Book: Chap 3, pgs 67-87, and pgsVideo: Team WikiSpeed Process, 90 minutes,Unit 4Book: Chap 3, pgsPaper: Agile Systems Engineering – Part 1Unit 5Book: Chap 5, pgsArticle: The Point and Click Substation MaturesUnit 6Book: Chap 8, pgsPaper: Agile Systems Engineering – Part 2Transcript: Hallway Open Q&A at Agile 2012, Dallas Texas, AugustUnit 7Book: Chap 7, pgsPaper: Fundamental Principles for Agile Systems EngineeringUnit 8Book: Chap 6 pgsPaper: Engineering Agile Systems: Creative-Guidance Frameworks for Requirements and DesignUnit 9Book: Chap 10, pgsVideo: A Theory for the Agile Movement – Dave Snowden and the Cynefin FrameworkUnit 10Book: Chap 10,Paper: Pattern Qualifications and Examples of Next Generation Agile System-Security Strategies19Feb2015
17Grading (For-Credit Students) 10% on class participation:Peer review presentations: demonstration of relevant knowledge application.Peer review contributions: collaborative engagement with projects of others.Evidence of study: knowledgeable reference to the readings.30% on operational model – Midterm deliverableTwo-page operational story: clear evidence of an agile system in operation demonstrated with response objectives, requirements, values, response enabling principles, and operational/integrity management.Three-element response ability model: relevance and clarity of key concepts in RS Analysis, RRS Principles, and Architectural Concept Pattern diagram.Evidence of study: knowledgeable reference to the literature and readings.60% on conceptual design report – Final deliverableArticulate a comprehensive new conceptual design, or analysis of an existing design: response objectives, issues with metrics, and enabling principles; strategic themes and activity web; closure matrix with descriptions; and operational management and responsibilities – see 678 Project Guidance document for the definitive word.due nlt Monday 2 weeks after classdue nlt Monday 6 weeks after classReality: The first deliverable is key. Your true understanding of necessary fundamentals is illuminated here. Feedback on this will put your train back on the rails.
18Course Project (For-Credit Students) (always refer to www. parshift Course Project (For-Credit Students) (always refer to for current requirements)5 Page Operational Model - Due as deliverable #1Includes strategic objectives/themesRSA - JIT Assembly LinesOperational StoryDetailed Conceptual Design DocumentationComprehensiveto oneSkilled in the ArtsLife with System X – Agility in ActionBy Rick Dove, Paradigm Shift International, , Senior Fellow, Agility ForumLook through Fred Mauck's eyes for a moment. You work in a GM stamping plant outside of Pittsburgh that specializes in after-model-year body parts. Your principal customer is GM's Service Parts Organization. They might order '73 Chevelle hoods quantity 50, '84 Chevy Impala right fenders quantity 100, or '89 Cutlass Supreme right front doors quantity 300. Your plant stamps the sheet metal and then assembles a deliverable product. Small lots, high variety, hard-to-make-a-buck stuff.Every new part that the plant takes on came from a production process at an OEM plant that occupied some thousands of square feet on the average; and the part was made with specialized equipment optimized for high volume runs and custom built for that part geometry. To stamp a new deck lid (trunk door) part you bring in a new die set - maybe six or seven dies, each the size of a full grown automobile, but weighing considerably more. And you bring in assembly equipment from an OEM line thatmight consist of ahemmer to fold edges of the metal, perhaps a pre-hemmer for a two-stage process, dedicated weldingapparatus for joining theinner lid to theouter lid, adhesiveapplying mastic at part-specific locations, piercer units for part-specific holes, and automated custom material handling equipment for moving work between process workstations.equipment forYou got a call a few weeks ago that said your plant will start making the Celebrity deck lids, and production has to start in 21 days. Not too bad - sometimes you only have four days. For new business like this your job is to get the necessary assembly equipment from the OEM plant, reconfigure the equipment and process to fit your plant, and have people ready to produce quality parts in the next three weeks. Others are responsible for the die sets and stamping end of the production process.In the last 12 months this happened 300 times. In the last five years you've recycled some 800,000 square feet of floor space in OEM plants for new model production. At this point you have assembly equipment and process for some 1000 different parts - but no extra floor space ever came with any of it.high-variety production - in a business that is traditionally based on high volume economics - and you've learned to do it without the usual capital budget. Eight years at this has evolved some pretty unique techniques - and a pretty unique culture as well.You don't do this by yourself - you're a team leader that may use almost anyone from anywhere in the plant. At this point almost everyone is qualified to help bring in new work - surviving under these conditions has developed a can-do/let-me-at-it attitude almost everywhere, and a shared understanding of how to do it.Eight years ago the plant went to a single job classification in production, cross training everyone on everything - a press operator one day might change dies as well, the next day work in the assembly area building hoods in the morning and fenders in the afternoon - and the following day go off to another plant to review a piece of equipment or part for how to bring it back.For this new business Jim Lesniewski wanted to do the initial recon. He went on the last trip too, experimenting with his video camera. Now he thinks he's ready to do a perfect taping job. He got the idea himself while trying to bring several jobs at once back from another GM facility. This environment encourages self initiative.In addition to taping the operational assembly process he added close-ups of key equipment pieces this time. In the debrief review everyone saw the same thing at the same time - there was almost no debate over what to bring back and what to ignore - and you got a jump on the equipment modifications by seeing what was needed in advance. Some time ago the value of having a good cross section represented in these reviews became evident: nobody gets surprised, everyone shares their knowledge, and when the eqchine, two welding robots, the welding fixtures, two press piercers, the shuttles, the press welders, and the three automated material handling fixtures. Basically bringing back a foot print of 200 square feet from a process that covered 2500 square feet. The rest will go to salvage disposition while the hemmer goes to "hemmer heaven" - that place in your plant where some 200 different hemmers hang out until needed.That you only need the hemmer is where a key part of the plant's unique core competency comes to play. Rather than build a growing variety of product on someRRS - JIT Assembly LinesA newly builtcustom assemblyline for each andevery small-batchrun, every time, justin time.ACP - JIT Assembly LinesAAPProblem/OpportunityResponse ObjectivesResponse Issues/MetricsStrategic Activity WebArchitecture & IntegrityApplied PrinciplesClosure MatrixConclusion & ReferencesResponse Ability Model3 MS PowerPoint SlidesOperational Story~ 2 MS Word Pages~ PagesDue as Deliverable #2
19Minimum: 80 Hrs Outside-of-Class Work 10-20 Hrs reading the text book30-20 Hrs researching and noodling40 Hrs composing and writingYou are Graduate StudentsA – Thoughtfully engaged with demonstrated application-design understandingB – Read, followed instructions, applied tools, demonstrated utility understandingC – Any of: blew it off, no understanding of basic concepts demonstrated, didn’t complete the closure matrix and discussion or other basic project steps.---- This is about: how your system addresses surprises (primary)not about what your system does functionally (secondary)Key: When it clicks…that drag-and-drop, plug-and-play (operational activity)is enabled by “encapsulated” modules and “evolving” frameworks,and that you have this all around you in your life…and you already know it well:Providing dinner for surprise guestsAssembling a team for a taskAppreciating your football team in actionReconfiguring your home entertainment system or your PCStrawman budget
20Some Term Project Ideas (must be relevant to your professional employment) Agile Systems Integration Laboratory – Architecture and Operation Service Oriented Architecture (eg, supporting Agile Enterprise) Agile Aircraft Depot Maintenance HD&L Operations Joint Tactical Radio System (eg, Interoperability) Agile Enterprise Practices for QRC Response An Agile Aircraft xxx System Utilizing COTS Agile Systems-Engineering (eg, for QRC) Agile Concepts for Outsourcing Support Team WikiSpeed Modified for Work-Related Process Applying Agile Systems Concepts in the Workplace Agile System Integration, Verification, and Validation Process An agile migration process from status quo to a more agile operation Agile Development-Infrastructure Concepts for Other-Than-Software Projects (e.g., software development uses Object-Oriented development platform)Should decide on a topic before Unit 6 – For Approval
21The Professor’s ModelObjective: 1) Cause insightful understanding of permanence 2) Instigate an open community of employment and extensionBelief: 1) The concepts are natural and all around us, and are already viscerally understood 2) Many types of barriers can inhibit explicit understandingShort goal: Rock solid understanding of drag-n-drop, plug-n-play as architecture of encapsulated modules and evolving frameworkLong goal: Appreciation and utility of the other 8 principles develops naturallyStrategy: 1) Exposure to a wide variety of examples2) Fast drill-and-practice exercises with critical feedback3) Discover and overcome individual assimilation barriersAssumption: The student is equally engagedCommitment: I will help anyone who believes there is a pony in here, … and shows equal commitment
22General Daily Session Structure Morning Hrs:1.0 - Peer review and discussion of last exerciseBreak1.5 - Morning lecture1.0 - Team work on exerciseLunch ( , phone calls, etc)Afternoon Hrs:1.5 - Afternoon lecture
23Exercises During The Class Time will be allocated during sessions to apply new learning, and for feed-back reviews of knowledge application.Collaborative teams will form (more than 4 teams difficult to brief out).Three types of tool-use exercises will occur during sessions:1) Class Warm-ups: Instructor records volunteered suggestions.2) Team Trials: A trial stab at using key tools to analyze an Agile System Development process, with 2 feed-back brief outs.3) Team Project: Teams work with all tools on team project.Each team will choose an agile-system engineering project, with 7 feed-back brief outs.The subsequent term project will apply all of the tools to a system design project – with relevance to your professional employment.
24In-Class Tool Applications Class Warm-ups Team Trials Team Project Unit 2 Unit 3 Unit 4 Unit 5 Unit 6 Unit 7 Unit 8 Unit 9 Unit 10AAP Analysis: CaseConOps: ObjectivesRS Analysis: CaseReactive/ProactiveRS AnalysisRS AnalysisRRS Analysis: CaseFramework/ModulesRRS AnalysisRRS + IntegrityReality Factors: CaseReality + ActivitiesIntegrityClosure
25Course Roadmap Have You Signed The Attendance Roster? Session 1 – Overview and Introduction to Agile SystemsSession 2 – Problem Space and Solution SpaceSession 3 – Response Types, Metrics, ValuesSession 4 – Situational Analysis and Strategy ExerciseSession 5 – Architecture and Design PrinciplesSession 6 – Design Exercise and Strategy RefinementSession 7 – Quality: Principles, Reality, StrategySession 8 – Operations: Closure and Integrity ManagementSession 9 – Culture and Proficiency DevelopmentSession 10 – The Edge of Knowledge, ProjectsFundamentalsAnalysisToolsSynthesisIntegrationPerspective
26Change and Uncertainty Some Examples of What’s Happening Now(that weren’t dreamed of a short while ago)The Paris edition of the New York Herald summed up Europe's opinion of the Wright brothers in an editorial on February 10, 1906: "The Wright have flown or they have not flown. They possess a machine or they do not possess one. They are in fact either fliers or liars. It is difficult to fly. It's easy to say, 'We have flown.'"On November 12, 1906, Alberto Santos-Dumont flew 220 meters (726 feet), capturing the 1500 franc Aero-Club de France prize from the Aero-Club for the first 100-meter flight.FileThe launch, as seen from the International Space Station
27BREAK Your Class web-page: www.parshift.com/678/678-150219L3.htm Support docs & links:FileFile
28American Football http://football. about 11 players on field per sideOffensive positions: 8 with some pairsDefensive positions: 6 with many pairsSpecial teams positions: 7 with some multiplesAdaptation is an immediate, appropriate, different response in functionality. This can only occur if functional resources can be added, modified, or reconfigured quickly. A good sports team has more players than it fields at any one time, so that the coach can mix and match the players’ skill-sets according to the opposition, the situation, and real-time developments. Reconfiguring a sports team with different players during game time doesn’t work, though, if players bring their own rules with them. The players all know the rules of the game and they all know their team’s playbook. The coach exercises a drag-and-drop, plug-and-play operational strategy enabled by an actively managed team-system structure. Complex system behaviors arise from the interactions of simple rules. Were this not the case, it would be impossible to sustain complex behavior in the face of increased opportunities for failure.
29Introduction to Agile Systems Agility definedOrigin and research historyFeatures and valuesReality and risk managementConfusions in the literature
30Cats Are the Icon of Agility ISSUEAgile is more than RapidWe agree that cats are agile. Why?Aware. Nimble. Focused on value.But on a hot tin roof they're spastic. Why?- Info overload. - Lost awareness. - Inability to create options.Up a tree they're catatonic. Why?- Paralyzed with fear. - Lost awareness. - Inability to create options.
31Agile System-Engineering is an instance of Agile-System Engineering Another IssueAgile System-Engineering is an instance of Agile-System EngineeringThis Course is Not AboutAgile Software Development and Extreme Programmingbut…they are examples
32Why Now? Years Ago 2,500,000 Stone tools - humans live as apes 40,000 Great leap forward (Language-caused? art, houses, weapons, war)4,000 Horse domesticated, plow invented, wheel invented500 Water travel begins to homogenize humanity globally0 Space exploration, nuclear physics, genetic engineering,global communications, networked humanity, ……………Genetically we last major-changed around 40,000 years agoKnowledge, created and diffused by language,has been driving human evolution ever since.Knowledge ExplosionFrom Jared Diamond's The Third Chimpanzee for general times and characteristics. The statement that we last genetically changed 40,000 years is my interpretation of his writings. His conjecture was that the voice box was responsible for the great leap forward in human development, which provided the uniquely human capability to then incorporate vowels into utterances, which led to a spoken language that could convey complexity and nuance, which led to thought, and to thoughts that could be passed on to others. The emergence of a new form of evolving stuff.
33Why Now? Knowledge builds on knowledge The more you have the more Decisionsmust be madefaster……andimplementedimmediatelyKnowledgebuilds onknowledgeThe moreyou havethe moreyou getThe kneeof the curveis passedNuclear physicsPersonal computerSemiconductors in everythingSpace travelGenetic engineeringInternetGlobalizationDrones & RobotsNano-technologyQuantum computing?Hydrogen economy?Human-equivalent AI?Knowledge Explosion
34The Law of Accelerating Returns "An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense 'intuitive linear' view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate)."Within a few decades … technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history.Ray Kurzweil, 2001A few of his many honors and awards...2000 Lemelson-MIT Prize. This $500,000 award is largest in U.S. in invention and innovation1999 National Medal of Technology, nation's highest honor in technology, President Clinton1994 Dickson Prize, Carnegie Mellon University’s top science prize1993 ACM Fellow Award, Association for Computing Machinery1982 Computer Science Award, President Reagan1982 Admitted to the Computer Industry Hall of Fame
35Guest Speaker – Ray Kurzweil How technology's accelerating power will transform us File23Prolific inventor and outrageous visionary Ray Kurzweil explains in abundant, grounded detail why -- by the 2020s -- we will have reverse-engineered the human brain, and nanobots will be operating your consciousness. Kurzweil draws on years of research to show the speed at which technology is evolving, and projects forward into an almost unthinkable future to outline the ways we'll use technology to augment our own capabilities, forever blurring the lines between human and machine.Inventor, entrepreneur, visionary, Ray Kurzweil's accomplishments read as a startling series of firsts -- a litany of technological breakthroughs we've come to take for granted. Kurzweil invented the first optical character recognition (OCR) software for transforming the written word into data, the first print-to-speech software for the blind, the first text-to-speech synthesizer, and many electronic instruments.Yet his impact as a futurist and philosopher is no less significant. In his best-selling books, which include The Age of Spiritual Machines and The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Kurzweil depicts in detail a portrait of the human condition over the next few decades, as accelerating technologies forever blur the line between human and machine."Kurzweil's eclectic career and propensity for combining science with practical -- often humanitarian -- applications have inspired comparisons with Thomas Edison."TimeVideo and text above at:
36Knowledge Gets Around Interconnected Complexity Machines People Parts BotsEtcArt: B.Cheswick & H.BurchAOLBBNac.jpatt.netUUNetdla.milNetcomsprint.netcw.net (+MCI)bellglobal.com10 Networks61,000 Routers12/98 Wired Magazine Data mid-September ‘99 Color based on IP address(old news)Speed:KnowledgeAnd ResponseAre Mismatched
37Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. We tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex things we don't--and can't--know. We have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day. Whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong.Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self- deception when it comes to statistics. Now, in The Black Swan, he focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future. The problem, Nassim explains, is that we place too much weight on the odds that past events will repeat. Instead, the really important events are rare and unpredictable. He calls them Black Swans, a reference to a 17th century philosophical thought experiment. In Europe all anyone had ever seen were white swans; indeed, "all swans are white" had long been used as the standard example of a scientific truth. Nassim argues that most of the really big events in our world are rare and unpredictable, and thus trying to extract generalizable stories to explain them may be emotionally satisfying, but it's practically useless. September 11th is one such example, and stock market crashes are another. Or, as he puts it, "History does not crawl, it jumps." Our assumptions grow out of the bell-curve predictability of what he calls "Mediocristan," while our world is really shaped by the wild powerlaw swings of "Extremistan.“ [Amazon Review by Chris Anderson]
38Inertia – The Bane of Agility Ceasing prior activityquickly and cleanlyis just as important asstarting new activity.Bane: a cause of death, destruction, ruin (Webster)
39Today's Agility Interest – Origin 1991 – SecDef funded project at Lehigh University to identify next manufacturing competitive focus beyond Lean– 13 companies participated full-time in 3-month workshop– 2 vol report: 21st Century Manufacturing Enterprise Strategy– Problem/opportunity defined (for manufacturing enterprises)1992 – Agile Manufacturing Enterprise Forum founded at Lehigh, funded by Texas Instruments and General Motors – Purpose: Identify nature of Agile solution– Method: Industry collaborative workshop groups1994 – DARPA/NSF establish $5 Million x 5 year funding– Name changed to Agility Forum (any kind of enterprise/system)– Research steering group and agenda established– 250+ orgs, participants in focused workshop groups– Conferences, papers, reference base, tools, reference model1998 – Mission accomplished, Agility Forum dissolved– Agility pursuit by industry and IT vendors entrenched
41Agile-Systems Research Focus Problem:- Technology and markets are changing faster than the ability to employ/accommodate- System-needs are uncertain and unpredictable- Flexible system approaches inadequate when requirements change- New approach needed that could extend usefulness/life of systemsSolution Search:- Examined 100s of systems of various types- Looked for systems that responded effectively- Looked for metrics that defined effectively- Looked for categories of response types- Looked for principles that enabled responseNote: This research took place at the Agility Forum , and in subsequent independent researchEssays chronicle knowledge development at
42Defining Agility Domain Independent Agility is effective response to opportunity and problem, within mission ... always.An effective response is one that is:timely (fast enough to deliver value),affordable (at a cost that leaves room for an ROI),predictable (can be counted on to meet expectations),comprehensive (anything/everything within mission boundary).An ineffective response is failure - there is zero tolerance for failure today.You can think of Agility as Requisite Variety.You can think of Agility as proactive Risk Management.The trick is understanding the nature of agile-enabling concepts, and how they can be applied to any type of system.Not fast, …just fast enoughDomain Independent
43Lean & Agile: Orthogonal Concerns Agile: Process TransformationLean: Process OperationAgility deals with “design-for-transformation”so continuous improvement is facilitated,not just mandated.Lean thinking demands continuous improvement … brute-force requiredAgile thinking facilitates continuous improvement … in both dimensions
44Class 1 Agile Systems are Reconfigurable Useful Metaphors:Plug-and-Play – Drag-and-DropClass 2 Agile Systems are ReconfiguringEcologies and EvolutionNaty Rosado,Helen Wells,
45Typical Enterprise Systems Product Systems- Machine tool- Laptop computer- IT network- Legal contract- Computer Program- UAVRigidProcess Systems- Agile SW Development- Chemical production- Purchasing- Auto assembly plant- System Engineering- UAV swarm attackGuidedPractice Systems- Supply chain mgmnt- Project management- Product development- Strategic planning- Proposal development- System architectingInformedPeople Systems- Knowledge management- Company of departments- Community of practice- Market of customers- Project team- Net centric warfareWillful
47Agility is Risk Management The value proposition for agility is risk management.Agility provides optionsfor mitigating riskin the face of uncertainty.Value PropositionRisk management in an evolving unpredictable environment is the value proposition for agile systems.An agile system is constructed to enable and facilitate augmentation, reconfiguration and scalability of reusable assets in response to unpredictable situations,and agility is sustained with active management of responsibilities that constantly evolve the agility enabling capabilities.
48New Risks from Enterprise Agility But Agile business practices bringnew enterprise risks and vulnerabilitiesSome typical current examples…Internal data and processes are web accessibleAll employees are web communicatorsNew technologies are employed fasterNetwork complexity increasesPartner interconnections are time criticalBusiness processes are outsourcedCOTS employment has several problemsMulticultural staff – differing ethic normsJust because you can doesn’t mean you should…turn on a dime
49ConfusionsDefinitions … for system agility proliferate in the literature, with varying sub-characteristics and sometimes with parallel system characteristics called out separately, such as adaptability, robustness, flexibility, resilience and others. At core agility is a capability that enables and facilitates effective response to unpredictable situations – including all of these characteristics. Agile Systems-Engineering and Agile-Systems Engineering … both obtain agility by addressing uncertainty with the same common fundamentals. Agile Systems-Engineering is a process that obtains its agility from a design based on Agile-Systems Engineering fundamentals. Agile Software Development … as agile systems engineering is not a general systems engineering approach, but rather a variety of many differing software-system engineering practices. Nevertheless, agile software development practices rely on agile-system engineering fundamentals as their core source of agility. Lean and agile … system/process concepts are different. The former is focused on efficient system operation and the later is focused on efficient system transformation. Neither encompasses the other, but there is some overlap of common best-practice in each.
50Guest Speaker: Andrew McAfee Are droids taking our jobs Guest Speaker: Andrew McAfee Are droids taking our jobs? Filmed Jun 2012 • TEDxBoston 2012File14Robots and algorithms are getting good at jobs like building cars, writing articles, translating -- jobs that once required a human. So what will we humans do for work? Andrew McAfee walks through recent labor data to say: We ain't seen nothing yet. But then he steps back to look at big history, and comes up with a surprising and even thrilling view of what comes next. Andrew McAfee studies the ways that information technology (IT) affects businesses, business as a whole, and the larger society. His research investigates how IT changes the way companies perform, organize themselves, and compete. At a higher level, his work also investigates how computerization affects competition, society, the economy, and the workforce. He's a principal research scientist at the Center for Digital Business, at the MIT Sloan School of Management. Hs books include Enterprise 2.0 and Race Against the Machine (with Erik Brynjolfsson). Read more on his blog. “Within [our lifetimes], we're going to transition into an economy that … doesn't need a lot of human workers. Managing that transition is going to be the greatest challenge that our society faces.” (Andrew McAfee)Video and text at: