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1:1 attributed copies permitted ES/SDOE 678 Reconfigurable Agile Systems and Enterprises Fundamentals of Analysis,

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1 1:1 attributed copies permitted ES/SDOE 678 Reconfigurable Agile Systems and Enterprises Fundamentals of Analysis, Synthesis, and Performance ES/SDOE 678 Reconfigurable Agile Systems and Enterprises Fundamentals of Analysis, Synthesis, and Performance Session 1: Course Overview and Introduction to Agile Systems School of Systems and Enterprises Stevens Institute of Technology, USA File1.3

2 1:2 attributed copies permitted Introductions Your background? What do you do here? Why do you want a Master of SE degree? Expectations from this course? Current passionate pursuits? File

3 1:3 attributed copies permitted Guest Speaker: Joe Justice Team WikiSpeed 12Nov2011 TEDx Rainier Seattle, Washington Video and audio at: Transcript at: Joe Justice and Team Wikispeed hand build a new deliverable street-legal, 100+ MPG car every 3 months, with new subsystem iterations every 7 days: 0-60 mph in 5 seconds, 149 mph top speed, with a sexy you-want-it carbon fiber sports car body. All done by a remote collaboration agile development process with volunteers working nights and weekends from many countries around the world. They satisfy critical safety regulations, and develop innovative technologies to solve automotive issues that exceed what is available from the major manufacturers. You don’t want the sports car body? They’ll make you one with a truck body, or a family-car body, whatever, under $20k. You want a different engine? They can swap out whatever is there for another one in the time it takes to change a tire. (File10)File10

4 1:4 attributed copies permitted 4. Technical Processes (for instance) 4.1Stakeholder Req. Def. Process 4.2Requirements Analysis Process 4.3Architectural Design Process 4.4Implementation Process 4.5Integration Process 4.6Verification Process 4.7Transition Process 4.8Validation Process 4.9Operation Process 4.10Maintenance Process 4.11Disposal Process 4.12 Cross-Cutting Technical Methods Systems engineering is a discipline that concentrates on the design and application of the whole (system) as distinct from the parts. It involves looking at a problem in its entirety, taking into account all the facets and all the variables and relating the social to the technical aspect. (Ramo) Systems engineering is an iterative process of top-down synthesis, development, and operation of a real- world system that satisfies, in a near optimal manner, the full range of requirements for the system. (Eisner) Supports the CSEP exam ( Certified Systems Engineering Professional) Members $20, or free e-download Version 3.2 January 2010

5 1:5 attributed copies permitted Early Conceptual Work Enables and Constrains System Possibilities "…the development of a basic idea and the first embodiment of the idea; these two initial activities are often called invention and are usually not part of the engineering of a system…" Dennis Buede Buede's book addresses the procedures and processes that turn concept into reality. That is the process part of Systems Engineering

6 1:6 attributed copies permitted Systems Engineering Life Cycle Models INCOSE Systems Engineering Handbook, V 3.1, p 3.5

7 1:7 attributed copies permitted Life Cycle Model Management Organizational Project- Enabling Processes ISO/IEC 15288–2008 Systems and software engineering — Life cycle processes Systems and software engineering — Life cycle processes Infrastructure Management Project Portfolio Management Human Resource Management Quality Management Project Assess and Control Decision Management Risk Management Configuration Management Information Management Measurement Project Planning Project Processes Technical Processes Stakeholder Requirements Definition Requirements Analysis Architectural Design VerificationTransitionValidationOperationMaintenanceDisposal Integration Implementation Agreement Processes AcquisitionSupply Special Processes Tailoring 19 Processes of Interest to the INCOSE Agile SE Life Cycle Model project

8 1:8 attributed copies permitted Research Use processes to observe and evaluate environmental evolution, and how that presents threat or opportunity Production Use processes to produce and improve system-of-interest and evolve infrastructure Utilization Use processes to operate, monitor and evolve system-of-interest, its services and infrastructure Concept Use processes to define & explore alternative solutions to meet a need Development Use processes to transform concepts and system requirements onto a documented, costed, producible prototype system-of-interest (added stage) Retirement Use processes to remove from use, dispose of & archive (sub) systems-of-interest Support Use processes to maintain, supply and support system-of-interest Agile SE LCM Criteria Engage Asynchronous-Stage Agile SE-Life Cycle Framework Systems and software engineering — Life cycle management — Part 1: Guide for life cycle management ISO/IEC TR :2010(E) Section (p. 32): “… to convey the idea that one can jump from a stage to one that does not immediately follow it, or revert to a prior stage or stages that do not immediately precede it.” “Further, the text in the model indicates that one applies, at any stage, the appropriate life cycle processes, in whatever sequence is appropriate to the project, and repeatedly or recursively if appropriate.” “While this may seem to be a total lack of structure, indeed it is not.” “Rather, the structure has well defined parts that can be juxtaposed as needed to get the job done, flexibly but still in a disciplined manner, just as a real structure would be created.” Seven asynchronously-invoked stages can be engaged repetitively and simultaneously to achieve benefit when engagement criteria are met Diagram of text

9 1:9 attributed copies permitted Purpose-Content-Objectives-Methods Purpose – Agile responsiveness is wanted in systems at the forefront of competition, enterprise, strategy, warfare, governance, innovation, engineering, information, integration, and virtually anything designed today for purpose. Content – Fundamental objectives, performance metrics, analysis frameworks, and engineering principles for agile systems – from products and processes to information and infrastructure to enterprises and systems-of-systems. Objectives – 1) to develop a working knowledge of tools and methods for requirements development and design synthesis of agile systems. 2) to develop domain independent patterns of agile systems that provide a foundation for intuitive knowledge. Methodology – Real agile systems are analyzed in case studies for their change proficiency and response ability. Response capability frameworks are applied in analysis and requirements development. Agility-enabling architectures and principles are illuminated and then applied in synthesis exercises. Hands-on, minds-on exercises prepare and guide the application of knowledge.

10 1:10 attributed copies permitted Setting Expectations All slides in course material will not be reviewed/presented/discussed, …they are there to draw upon as appropriate, and for later reference. Some slides not in the regular course material will be employed, …for case studies as emerging interests indicate. Some slides are very dense and not screen-viewable at a distance, …they augment the text with reference material viewable on your PC. This is not a Systems Engineering Process course, …those are available under appropriately different course titles. This course focuses on design and engineering concepts, …that enable responsive/adaptable systems. Various thinking-tools and thinking-disciplines are introduced, …thinking fruitfully is a creative activity, not a procedure. This is not a software-systems engineering course, …nor focused on any other specific systems domain.

11 1:11 attributed copies permitted Learning Opportunity X-Ray Vision Architecture Design Methodology Conceptual Design Methodology Domain Independent Principles Learning requires three things: 1) Your belief that value exists in the learning 2) Your desire to learn 3) Some similarity to what you already know Warnings: 1) Examples will generally not be your system types 2) Abstract thinking is the purpose 3) Enabling creative innovation is the aim 4) Comfortable comprehension does not occur in a few days

12 1:12 attributed copies permitted Administrative Each SDOE module contains the equivalent content of a traditionally taught, thirteen week graduate course. The compressed lecture schedule employed by SDOE enables students to complete the classroom portion of a course over five, eight-hour days. While this format provides greater flexibility to the full-time professional student, it also requires a particular focus on student attendance. Therefore, the SDOE Attendance Policy is as follows: Time Missed Approver Make-Up Work < 4 Total Hours Course Instructor Discretion of Instructor 4-8 Total Hours Associate Dean, Assignment Consistent Professional Programswith Missed Time > 8 Total Hours Associate Dean, Student May be Required Professional Programs to Repeat Course In any event, the student is accountable for all presented material and class direction. The graduate grading cycle: AA-B+BB-C+CC- F

13 1:13 attributed copies permitted Breaks Participation Interruptions Arrivals and Departures Readings and Homework and Web Surfing Project Teaming Peer Reviews Phones Classroom Class

14 1:14 attributed copies permitted Readings, References, Text Text book: Response Ability – The Language, Structure, and Culture of the Agile Enterprise, Wiley, Relevant inter-session readings will be suggested during the course. --some are necessary-- A reference list is provided for additional and continued self-study, with Internet links where available.

15 1:15 attributed copies permitted Downloadable Reference Materials Additional materials and case studies will be selected for use during class. Many are available for download from: Tool templates for use during class should be on your CD. They are also available for download from the URL referenced above. These downloadable materials change over time. …so what will be found there in the weeks following class may be different than what is there during class.

16 1:16 attributed copies permitted SDOE 678 Web Links and Useful Reading for Indicated Session – Need Before Unit Starts Unit 1 Book:Preface and Chap 1, pgs 3-30 (entire chapter)Preface and Chap 1, pgs 3-30 (entire chapter) Essay:Assembly Lines Built Just In TimeAssembly Lines Built Just In Time Unit 2 Book:Chap 2, pgs (up to ADAPTABLE CULTURE section)Chap 2, pgs (up to ADAPTABLE CULTURE section) Essay:Fixtures Built While You WaitFixtures Built While You Wait Unit 3 Book:Chap 3, pgs 67-87, and pgs Video:Team WikiSpeed Process, 90 minutes, Unit 4 Book:Chap 3, pgs Paper:Agile Systems Engineering – Part 1Agile Systems Engineering – Part 1 Unit 5 Book:Chap 5, pgs Article:The Point and Click Substation MaturesThe Point and Click Substation Matures Unit 6 Book:Chap 8, pgs Paper:Agile Systems Engineering – Part 2Agile Systems Engineering – Part 2 Transcript: Hallway Open Q&A at Agile 2012, Dallas Texas, AugustHallway Open Q&A at Agile 2012, Dallas Texas, August Unit 7 Book:Chap 7, pgs Paper:Fundamental Principles for Agile Systems EngineeringFundamental Principles for Agile Systems Engineering Unit 8 Book:Chap 6 pgs Paper:Engineering Agile Systems: Creative-Guidance Frameworks for Requirements and DesignEngineering Agile Systems: Creative-Guidance Frameworks for Requirements and Design Unit 9 Book:Chap 10, pgs Video:A Theory for the Agile Movement – Dave Snowden and the Cynefin FrameworkA Theory for the Agile Movement Unit 10 Book:Chap 10, Paper:Pattern Qualifications and Examples of Next Generation Agile System-Security StrategiesPattern Qualifications and Examples of Next Generation Agile System-Security Strategies 19Feb2015 Best Before Unit Starts

17 1:17 attributed copies permitted Grading (For-Credit Students) 10% on class participation: Peer review presentations: demonstration of relevant knowledge application. Peer review contributions: collaborative engagement with projects of others. Evidence of study: knowledgeable reference to the readings. 30% on operational model – Midterm deliverable Two-page operational story: clear evidence of an agile system in operation demonstrated with response objectives, requirements, values, response enabling principles, and operational/integrity management. Three-element response ability model: relevance and clarity of key concepts in RS Analysis, RRS Principles, and Architectural Concept Pattern diagram. Evidence of study: knowledgeable reference to the literature and readings. 60% on conceptual design report – Final deliverable Articulate a comprehensive new conceptual design, or analysis of an existing design: response objectives, issues with metrics, and enabling principles; strategic themes and activity web; closure matrix with descriptions; and operational management and responsibilities – see 678 Project Guidance document for the definitive word. Evidence of study: knowledgeable reference to the literature and readings. Reality:The first deliverable is key. Your true understanding of necessary fundamentals is illuminated here. Feedback on this will put your train back on the rails. due nlt Monday 2 weeks after class due nlt Monday 6 weeks after class

18 1:18 attributed copies permitted Course Project (For-Credit Students) (always refer to for current requirements) A newly built custom assembly line for each and every small-batch run, every time, just in time. Life with System X – Agility in Action By Rick Dove, Paradigm Shift International, , Senior Fellow, Agility Forum Look through Fred Mauck's eyes for a moment. You work in a GM stamping plant outside of Pittsburgh that specializes in after-model-year body parts. Your principal customer is GM's Service Parts Organization. They might order '73 Chevelle hoods quantity 50, '84 Chevy Impala right fenders quantity 100, or '89 Cutlass Supreme right front doors quantity 300. Your plant stamps the sheet metal and then assembles a deliverable product. Small lots, high variety, hard-to-make-a-buck stuff. Every new part that the plant takes on came from a production process at an OEM plant that occupied some thousands of square feet on the average; and the part was made with specialized equipment optimized for high volume runs and custom built for that part geometry. To stamp a new deck lid (trunk door) part you bring in a new die set - maybe six or seven dies, each the size of a full grown automobile, but weighing considerably more. And you bring in assembly equipment from an OEM line that might consist of a hemmer to fold edges of the metal, perhaps a pre-hemmer for a two-stage process, dedicated welding apparatus for joining the inner lid to the outer lid, adhesive equipment for applying mastic at part-specific locations, piercer units for part-specific holes, and automated custom material handling equipment for moving work between process workstations. You got a call a few weeks ago that said your plant will start making the Celebrity deck lids, and production has to start in 21 days. Not too bad - sometimes you only have four days. For new business like this your job is to get the necessary assembly equipment from the OEM plant, reconfigure the equipment and process to fit your plant, and have people ready to produce quality parts in the next three weeks. Others are responsible for the die sets and stamping end of the production process. In the last 12 months this happened 300 times. In the last five years you've recycled some 800,000 square feet of floor space in OEM plants for new model production. At this point you have assembly equipment and process for some 1000 different parts - but no extra floor space ever came with any of it. high-variety production - in a business that is traditionally based on high volume economics - and you've learned to do it without the usual capital budget. Eight years at this has evolved some pretty unique techniques - and a pretty unique culture as well. You don't do this by yourself - you're a team leader that may use almost anyone from anywhere in the plant. At this point almost everyone is qualified to help bring in new work - surviving under these conditions has developed a can-do/let- me-at-it attitude almost everywhere, and a shared understanding of how to do it. Eight years ago the plant went to a single job classification in production, cross training everyone on everything - a press operator one day might change dies as well, the next day work in the assembly area building hoods in the morning and fenders in the afternoon - and the following day go off to another plant to review a piece of equipment or part for how to bring it back. For this new business Jim Lesniewski wanted to do the initial recon. He went on the last trip too, experimenting with his video camera. Now he thinks he's ready to do a perfect taping job. He got the idea himself while trying to bring several jobs at once back from another GM facility. This environment encourages self initiative. In addition to taping the operational assembly process he added close-ups of key equipment pieces this time. In the debrief review everyone saw the same thing at the same time - there was almost no debate over what to bring back and what to ignore - and you got a jump on the equipment modifications by seeing what was needed in advance. Some time ago the value of having a good cross section represented in these reviews became evident: nobody gets surprised, everyone shares their knowledge, and when the eqchine, two welding robots, the welding fixtures, two press piercers, the shuttles, the press welders, and the three automated material handling fixtures. Basically bringing back a foot print of 200 square feet from a process that covered 2500 square feet. The rest will go to salvage disposition while the hemmer goes to "hemmer heaven" - that place in your plant where some 200 different hemmers hang out until needed. That you only need the hemmer is where a key part of the plant's unique core competency comes to play. Rather than build a growing variety of product on some Problem/Opportunity Response Objectives Response Issues/Metrics Strategic Activity Web Architecture & Integrity Applied Principles Closure Matrix Conclusion & References Detailed Conceptual Design Documentation Comprehensive to one Skilled in the Arts Response Ability Model 3 MS PowerPoint Slides 5 Page Operational Model - Due as deliverable #1 Operational Story ~ 2 MS Word Pages ~ Pages Due as Deliverable #2 Includes strategic objectives/themes Operational Story RSA - JIT Assembly Lines RRS - JIT Assembly Lines ACP - JIT Assembly Lines AAP

19 1:19 attributed copies permitted Minimum: 80 Hrs Outside-of-Class Work Hrs reading the text book Hrs researching and noodling 40 Hrs composing and writing You are Graduate Students A – Thoughtfully engaged with demonstrated application-design understanding B – Read, followed instructions, applied tools, demonstrated utility understanding C – Any of: blew it off, no understanding of basic concepts demonstrated, didn’t complete the closure matrix and discussion or other basic project steps This is about: how your system addresses surprises (primary) not about what your system does functionally (secondary) Key: When it clicks…that drag-and-drop, plug-and-play (operational activity) is enabled by “encapsulated” modules and “evolving” frameworks, and that you have this all around you in your life…and you already know it well: Providing dinner for surprise guests Assembling a team for a task Appreciating your football team in action Reconfiguring your home entertainment system or your PC Strawman budget

20 1:20 attributed copies permitted Some Term Project Ideas (must be relevant to your professional employment) Agile Systems Integration Laboratory – Architecture and Operation Service Oriented Architecture (eg, supporting Agile Enterprise) Agile Aircraft Depot Maintenance HD&L Operations Joint Tactical Radio System (eg, Interoperability) Agile Enterprise Practices for QRC Response An Agile Aircraft xxx System Utilizing COTS Agile Systems-Engineering (eg, for QRC) Agile Concepts for Outsourcing Support Team WikiSpeed Modified for Work-Related Process Applying Agile Systems Concepts in the Workplace Agile System Integration, Verification, and Validation Process An agile migration process from status quo to a more agile operation Agile Development-Infrastructure Concepts for Other-Than-Software Projects (e.g., software development uses Object-Oriented development platform) Should decide on a topic before Unit 6 – For Approval

21 1:21 attributed copies permitted The Professor’s Model Objective: 1)Cause insightful understanding of permanence 2)Instigate an open community of employment and extension Belief: 1)The concepts are natural and all around us, and are already viscerally understood 2)Many types of barriers can inhibit explicit understanding Short goal:Rock solid understanding of drag-n-drop, plug-n-play as architecture of encapsulated modules and evolving framework Long goal:Appreciation and utility of the other 8 principles develops naturally Strategy:1)Exposure to a wide variety of examples 2)Fast drill-and-practice exercises with critical feedback 3) Discover and overcome individual assimilation barriers Assumption:The student is equally engaged Commitment:I will help anyone who believes there is a pony in here, … and shows equal commitment

22 1:22 attributed copies permitted General Daily Session Structure Morning Hrs: Peer review and discussion of last exercise Break Morning lecture Team work on exercise Lunch ( , phone calls, etc) Afternoon Hrs: Peer review and discussion of last exercise Break Afternoon lecture Team work on exercise

23 1:23 attributed copies permitted Exercises During The Class Time will be allocated during sessions to apply new learning, and for feed-back reviews of knowledge application. Collaborative teams will form (more than 4 teams difficult to brief out). Three types of tool-use exercises will occur during sessions: 1) Class Warm-ups: Instructor records volunteered suggestions. 2) Team Trials: A trial stab at using key tools to analyze an Agile System Development process, with 2 feed-back brief outs. 3) Team Project: Teams work with all tools on team project. Each team will choose an agile-system engineering project, with 7 feed-back brief outs. The subsequent term project will apply all of the tools to a system design project – with relevance to your professional employment.

24 1:24 attributed copies permitted In-Class Tool Applications Class Warm-upsTeam TrialsTeam Project Unit 2 Unit 3 Unit 4 Unit 5 Unit 6 Unit 7 Unit 8 Unit 9 Unit 10 ConOps: Objectives Reactive/Proactive RS Analysis Framework/Modules RRS + Integrity RS Analysis RRS Analysis Integrity Reality Factors: Case RS Analysis: Case RRS Analysis: Case Reality + Activities Closure AAP Analysis: Case

25 1:25 attributed copies permitted Session 1 – Overview and Introduction to Agile Systems Session 2 – Problem Space and Solution Space Session 3 – Response Types, Metrics, Values Session 4 – Situational Analysis and Strategy Exercise Session 5 – Architecture and Design Principles Session 6 – Design Exercise and Strategy Refinement Session 7 – Quality: Principles, Reality, Strategy Session 8 – Operations: Closure and Integrity Management Session 9 – Culture and Proficiency Development Session 10 – The Edge of Knowledge, Projects Integration Fundamentals Tools Perspective Analysis Synthesis Course Roadmap Have You Signed The Attendance Roster?

26 1:26 attributed copies permitted Some Examples of What’s Happening Now (that weren’t dreamed of a short while ago) Change and Uncertainty The Paris edition of the New York Herald summed up Europe's opinion of the Wright brothers in an editorial on February 10, 1906: "The Wright have flown or they have not flown. They possess a machine or they do not possess one. They are in fact either fliers or liars. It is difficult to fly. It's easy to say, 'We have flown.'" On November 12, 1906, Alberto Santos- Dumont flew 220 meters (726 feet), capturing the 1500 franc Aero-Club de France prize from the Aero-Club for the first 100-meter flight. The launch, as seen from the International Space Station File

27 1:27 attributed copies permitted BREAK Your Class L3.htm Support docs & File

28 1:28 attributed copies permitted American Football Adaptation is an immediate, appropriate, different response in functionality. This can only occur if functional resources can be added, modified, or reconfigured quickly. A good sports team has more players than it fields at any one time, so that the coach can mix and match the players’ skill-sets according to the opposition, the situation, and real-time developments. Reconfiguring a sports team with different players during game time doesn’t work, though, if players bring their own rules with them. The players all know the rules of the game and they all know their team’s playbook. The coach exercises a drag-and-drop, plug-and-play operational strategy enabled by an actively managed team-system structure. Complex system behaviors arise from the interactions of simple rules. Were this not the case, it would be impossible to sustain complex behavior in the face of increased opportunities for failure. 11 players on field per side Offensive positions: 8 with some pairs Defensive positions: 6 with many pairs Special teams positions: 7 with some multiples

29 1:29 attributed copies permitted Introduction to Agile Systems Agility defined Origin and research history Features and values Reality and risk management Confusions in the literature

30 1:30 attributed copies permitted ISSUE Agile is more than Rapid Cats Are the Icon of Agility We agree that cats are agile. Why? Aware. Nimble. Focused on value. But on a hot tin roof they're spastic. Why? - Info overload. - Lost awareness. - Inability to create options. Up a tree they're catatonic. Why? - Paralyzed with fear. - Lost awareness. - Inability to create options.

31 1:31 attributed copies permitted Another Issue Agile System-Engineering is an instance of Agile-System Engineering This Course is Not About Agile Software Development and Extreme Programming but…they are examples

32 1:32 attributed copies permitted Years Ago 2,500,000Stone tools - humans live as apes 40,000Great leap forward (Language-caused? art, houses, weapons, war) 4,000Horse domesticated, plow invented, wheel invented 500Water travel begins to homogenize humanity globally 0Space exploration, nuclear physics, genetic engineering, global communications, networked humanity, …………… Genetically we last major-changed around 40,000 years ago Knowledge, created and diffused by language, has been driving human evolution ever since. From Jared Diamond's The Third Chimpanzee for general times and characteristics. The statement that we last genetically changed 40,000 years is my interpretation of his writings. His conjecture was that the voice box was responsible for the great leap forward in human development, which provided the uniquely human capability to then incorporate vowels into utterances, which led to a spoken language that could convey complexity and nuance, which led to thought, and to thoughts that could be passed on to others. The emergence of a new form of evolving stuff. Knowledge Explosion Why Now?

33 1:33 attributed copies permitted Why Now? Nuclear physics Personal computer Semiconductors in everything Space travel Genetic engineering Internet Globalization Drones & Robots Nano-technology Quantum computing? Hydrogen economy? Human-equivalent AI? Knowledge builds on knowledge The more you have the more you get The knee of the curve is passed Decisions must be made faster… …and implemented immediately Knowledge Explosion

34 1:34 attributed copies permitted The Law of Accelerating Returns "An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense 'intuitive linear' view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate). "Within a few decades … technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. Ray Kurzweil, A few of his many honors and awards Lemelson-MIT Prize. This $500,000 award is largest in U.S. in invention and innovation 1999National Medal of Technology, nation's highest honor in technology, President Clinton 1994Dickson Prize, Carnegie Mellon University’s top science prize 1993ACM Fellow Award, Association for Computing Machinery 1982Computer Science Award, President Reagan 1982Admitted to the Computer Industry Hall of Fame

35 1:35 attributed copies permitted Guest Speaker – Ray Kurzweil How technology's accelerating power will transform us Prolific inventor and outrageous visionary Ray Kurzweil explains in abundant, grounded detail why -- by the 2020s -- we will have reverse-engineered the human brain, and nanobots will be operating your consciousness. Kurzweil draws on years of research to show the speed at which technology is evolving, and projects forward into an almost unthinkable future to outline the ways we'll use technology to augment our own capabilities, forever blurring the lines between human and machine. Inventor, entrepreneur, visionary, Ray Kurzweil's accomplishments read as a startling series of firsts -- a litany of technological breakthroughs we've come to take for granted. Kurzweil invented the first optical character recognition (OCR) software for transforming the written word into data, the first print-to-speech software for the blind, the first text-to-speech synthesizer, and many electronic instruments. Yet his impact as a futurist and philosopher is no less significant. In his best-selling books, which include The Age of Spiritual Machines and The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Kurzweil depicts in detail a portrait of the human condition over the next few decades, as accelerating technologies forever blur the line between human and machine. "Kurzweil's eclectic career and propensity for combining science with practical -- often humanitarian -- applications have inspired comparisons with Thomas Edison."Time Video and text above at: File23

36 1:36 attributed copies permitted Knowledge Gets Around Art: B.Cheswick & H.Burch AOL BBN UUNet Netcom (+MCI) 10 Networks 61,000 Routers 12/98 Wired Magazine Data mid-September ‘99 Color based on IP address (old news) Speed: Knowledge And Response Are Mismatched Interconnected Complexity Machines People Parts Bots Etc

37 1:37 attributed copies permitted Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self- deception when it comes to statistics. Now, in The Black Swan, he focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future. The problem, Nassim explains, is that we place too much weight on the odds that past events will repeat. Instead, the really important events are rare and unpredictable. He calls them Black Swans, a reference to a 17th century philosophical thought experiment. In Europe all anyone had ever seen were white swans; indeed, "all swans are white" had long been used as the standard example of a scientific truth. Nassim argues that most of the really big events in our world are rare and unpredictable, and thus trying to extract generalizable stories to explain them may be emotionally satisfying, but it's practically useless. September 11th is one such example, and stock market crashes are another. Or, as he puts it, "History does not crawl, it jumps." Our assumptions grow out of the bell-curve predictability of what he calls "Mediocristan," while our world is really shaped by the wild powerlaw swings of "Extremistan.“ [Amazon Review by Chris Anderson] Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. We tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex things we don't--and can't--know. We have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day. Whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong.

38 1:38 attributed copies permitted Inertia – The Bane of Agility Ceasing prior activity quickly and cleanly is just as important as starting new activity. Bane: a cause of death, destruction, ruin (Webster)

39 1:39 attributed copies permitted 1991–SecDef funded project at Lehigh University to identify next manufacturing competitive focus beyond Lean –13 companies participated full-time in 3-month workshop –2 vol report: 21 st Century Manufacturing Enterprise Strategy –Problem/opportunity defined (for manufacturing enterprises) 1992–Agile Manufacturing Enterprise Forum founded at Lehigh, funded by Texas Instruments and General Motors –Purpose: Identify nature of Agile solution –Method: Industry collaborative workshop groups 1994–DARPA/NSF establish $5 Million x 5 year funding –Name changed to Agility Forum (any kind of enterprise/system) –Research steering group and agenda established –250+ orgs, participants in focused workshop groups –Conferences, papers, reference base, tools, reference model 1998–Mission accomplished, Agility Forum dissolved –Agility pursuit by industry and IT vendors entrenched Today's Agility Interest – Origin

40 1:40 attributed copies permitted AGILITY DEFINED The Ability to Thrive in a Continuously Changing, Unpredictable Environment. RECONFIGURABLE EVERYTHING Circa 1991

41 1:41 attributed copies permitted Agile-Systems Research Focus Problem: - Technology and markets are changing faster than the ability to employ/accommodate - System-needs are uncertain and unpredictable - Flexible system approaches inadequate when requirements change - New approach needed that could extend usefulness/life of systems Solution Search: - Examined 100s of systems of various types - Looked for systems that responded effectively - Looked for metrics that defined effectively - Looked for categories of response types - Looked for principles that enabled response Note: This research took place at the Agility Forum , and in subsequent independent research Essays chronicle knowledge development at

42 1:42 attributed copies permitted Defining Agility Agility is effective response to opportunity and problem, within mission... always. An effective response is one that is: timely (fast enough to deliver value), affordable (at a cost that leaves room for an ROI), predictable (can be counted on to meet expectations), comprehensive (anything/everything within mission boundary). An ineffective response is failure - there is zero tolerance for failure today. You can think of Agility as Requisite Variety. You can think of Agility as proactive Risk Management. The trick is understanding the nature of agile-enabling concepts, and how they can be applied to any type of system. Domain Independent Not fast, …just fast enough

43 1:43 attributed copies permitted Lean & Agile: Orthogonal Concerns Agile: Process Transformation Lean: Process Operation Agility deals with “design-for-transformation” so continuous improvement is facilitated, not just mandated. Lean thinking demands continuous improvement … brute-force required Agile thinking facilitates continuous improvement … in both dimensions

44 1:44 attributed copies permitted Class 1 Agile Systems are Reconfigurable Useful Metaphors: Plug-and-Play – Drag-and-Drop Class 2 Agile Systems are Reconfiguring Useful Metaphors: Ecologies and Evolution Helen Wells, Naty Rosado,

45 1:45 attributed copies permitted Typical Enterprise Systems Product Systems - Machine tool - Laptop computer - IT network - Legal contract - Computer Program - UAV Rigid Process Systems - Agile SW Development - Chemical production - Purchasing - Auto assembly plant - System Engineering - UAV swarm attack Guided Practice Systems - Supply chain mgmnt - Project management - Product development - Strategic planning - Proposal development - System architecting Informed People Systems - Knowledge management - Company of departments - Community of practice - Market of customers - Project team - Net centric warfare Willful

46 1:46 attributed copies permitted File case

47 1:47 attributed copies permitted Agility is Risk Management The value proposition for agility is risk management. Agility provides options for mitigating risk in the face of uncertainty Value Proposition Risk management in an evolving unpredictable environment is the value proposition for agile systems. An agile system is constructed to enable and facilitate augmentation, reconfiguration and scalability of reusable assets in response to unpredictable situations, and agility is sustained with active management of responsibilities that constantly evolve the agility enabling capabilities.

48 1:48 attributed copies permitted New Risks from Enterprise Agility But Agile business practices bring new enterprise risks and vulnerabilities Some typical current examples… Internal data and processes are web accessible All employees are web communicators New technologies are employed faster Network complexity increases Partner interconnections are time critical Business processes are outsourced COTS employment has several problems Multicultural staff – differing ethic norms Just because you can doesn’t mean you should…turn on a dime

49 1:49 attributed copies permitted Definitions … for system agility proliferate in the literature, with varying sub-characteristics and sometimes with parallel system characteristics called out separately, such as adaptability, robustness, flexibility, resilience and others. At core agility is a capability that enables and facilitates effective response to unpredictable situations – including all of these characteristics. Agile Systems-Engineering and Agile-Systems Engineering … both obtain agility by addressing uncertainty with the same common fundamentals. Agile Systems-Engineering is a process that obtains its agility from a design based on Agile-Systems Engineering fundamentals. Agile Software Development … as agile systems engineering is not a general systems engineering approach, but rather a variety of many differing software-system engineering practices. Nevertheless, agile software development practices rely on agile-system engineering fundamentals as their core source of agility. Lean and agile … system/process concepts are different. The former is focused on efficient system operation and the later is focused on efficient system transformation. Neither encompasses the other, but there is some overlap of common best- practice in each. Confusions

50 1:50 attributed copies permitted Robots and algorithms are getting good at jobs like building cars, writing articles, translating -- jobs that once required a human. So what will we humans do for work? Andrew McAfee walks through recent labor data to say: We ain't seen nothing yet. But then he steps back to look at big history, and comes up with a surprising and even thrilling view of what comes next. Andrew McAfeeAndrew McAfee studies the ways that information technology (IT) affects businesses, business as a whole, and the larger society. His research investigates how IT changes the way companies perform, organize themselves, and compete. At a higher level, his work also investigates how computerization affects competition, society, the economy, and the workforce. He's a principal research scientist at the Center for Digital Business, at the MIT Sloan School of Management. Hs books include Enterprise 2.0 and Race Against the Machine (with Erik Brynjolfsson). Read more on his blog.Enterprise 2.0Race Against the Machinehis blog “Within [our lifetimes], we're going to transition into an economy that … doesn't need a lot of human workers. Managing that transition is going to be the greatest challenge that our society faces.” (Andrew McAfee) Video and text at: Guest Speaker: Andrew McAfee Are droids taking our jobs? Filmed Jun 2012 TEDxBoston 2012 File14

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