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Grant Willis Global Head of Natural Resources

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1 Grant Willis Global Head of Natural Resources
The Australian Oil & Gas Industry Grant Willis Global Head of Natural Resources January 2014

2 This presentation does not constitute an offer to provide finance on any terms. The provision of any such offer is subject to formal review and credit approval, satisfactory due diligence, sign off by legal, tax, accounting and other professional advisers and execution of satisfactory documentation. The Commonwealth Bank shall not be bound unless and until final terms are agreed and formal documentation is signed. That final documentation may not necessarily mirror the contents of this presentation and any actions you may choose to take should not be taken in reliance on this presentation. The information contained herein is confidential and is the proprietary structure of the Commonwealth Bank. It is provided on the basis that you will not disclose its contents to any persons other than directors, employees and advisors without the written consent of the Commonwealth Bank. It is not to be discussed either directly or indirectly with any other financier. This obligation will not apply if the information is available to the public generally (except as a result of a previous breach of this confidentiality obligation) or you are required to disclose it by law. © Copyright Commonwealth Bank Australia

3 The Commonwealth Bank of Australia
Australia’s largest bank by market capitalisation 14.6m Customers 3,000 Institutional Clients KEY FINANCIALS CREDIT RATING S&P Moody’s Fitch Statutory NPAT A$7,677m Cash NPAT A$7,819m Return on equity 18.4% Total assets A$754b Cash earnings per share A$4.86 Dividend per share A$3.64 Basel III CET1 (International) 11.0% Industry specialisation and understanding make the Bank an ideal partner providing balance sheet strength and broad product capability Oil & Gas industry teams placed in key commercial and financing hubs. CBA is a Bank that actively deploys balance sheet into our client’s businesses Broad range of debt products spanning project, corporate and acquisition finance Strong global financial markets capabilities across commodities, foreign currency and interest rates The only domestic Australian bank with a full in-house equity business, focused on retail and institutional clients LIQUIDITY (AUD) GLOBAL COMPARISON $101b June 2011 $135b June 2012 $137b June 2013 Market Capitalisation (US$bn) Global Market Capitalisation Ranking Senior Debt Rating Moody’s S&P 268.02 1 A2 A+ 243.52 2 A3 A 232.44 4 Aa3 198.11 6 Baa2 A- 183.81 7 124.01 10 Aa2 AA- 104.29 15 92.91 18 Baa1 Source: Bloomberg. As at 13 January Credit rating: S&P

4 The Growing Commonwealth Bank of Australia
The Bank provides Natural Resources and product specialists across the globe London office UK Norway The Netherlands Eastern Europe Africa New York office Houston office United States Canada Singapore office Hong Kong office East & SE Asia Sydney office Australia New Zealand East & SE Asia

5 Commonwealth Bank of Australia – Products and Clients
Cash & Treasury Management Payables & Procurement Foreign Currency Accounts Trade Finance CommBiz Term Deposits Commodities Sales & Trading Structured Commodity Finance Structured Investments Interest Rates FX Transaction Banking Financial Markets Working Capital Acquisition & Bridge Finance Project & Development Finance Corporate & Structured Asset Finance Equity & Debt Capital Markets Capital Raising

6 Australian Economy – Outlook
CBA’s Global Outlook 2010 (a) 2011 (a) 2012 (a) 2013 (a) 2014 (f) 2015 (f) GDP Growth (% YoY) FX AUD/USD 0.94 0.91 0.90 EUR/USD 1.34 1.32 1.305 GBP/USD 1.63 1.62 1.54 Base Interest Rate Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) 2.50% 2.56% 3.00% US Federal Reserve (Fed) 0.25% 0.75% European Central Bank (ECB) People's Bank of China - Benchmark 1 Year Lending Rate 6.00% Oil (USD/bbl) WTI 98.00 91.00 94.00 Brent 109.00 99.00 97.00

7 Natural Resources Economic Data
Source: CBA

8 Global Listed E&P Stocks
Where does Australia stand? Market Capitalisation of Global E&P Stocks # of Stocks % of Stocks Mkt. Cap (USDbn) % of Total Mkt Cap Median (USDm) Global Revenue % of Global Revenue Global 1052 100% 1231 34 471 US 335 32% 608 49% 240 51% Canada 347 33% 185 15% 17 58 12% Europe (incl UK) 139 13% 136 11% 80 28 6% Asia Pac (ex AU) 55 5% 226 18% 297 121 26% Australia 67 20 13 3% Source: CBA and Bloomberg

9 Australian E&Ps by Market Capitalisation (AUDm)
ASIA Source: CBA and Bloomberg

10 Recent Unconventional Gas Farm-ins
Are attracting a roll call of international majors / Amount $70m Acres 4.0m EV / Acre 17.6 Date May-2011 / Amount $152m Acres 4.1m EV / Acre 37.3 Date Nov-2012 / Amount $156m Acres 7.7m EV / Acre 20.3 Date Dec-2011 Uncovered natural gas pipelines Full regulation pipelines Browse LNG Prelude FLNG Canning Perth Gippsland Amadeus Georgina Officer Galilee Arckaringa Otway Beetaloo Darwin LNG Ichthys Cooper Maryborough Gunnedah / Sydney Wheatstone NW Shelf LNG Pluto Gorgon Light regulation pipelines / Amount $210m Acres 9.1m EV / Acre 22.9 Date Jun-2012 Amount $12m Acres 1.9m EV / Acre 6.2 Date May-2012 APLNG, Arrow LNG, GLNG and QCLNG, / Amount $50m Acres 3.3m EV / Acre 15.0 Date Dec-2010 / Amount $111m Acres 7.7m EV / Acre 14.4 Date Sep-2011 / Amount $101m Acres 0.4m EV / Acre 268.6 Date Jul-2011 / Amount $32.2m Acres 5.5m EV / Acre 5.9 Date Nov-2013 / Amount $349m Acres 0.4m EV / Acre 904.1 Date Feb-2013 Source: Relevant company announcements

11 Putting the Australian opportunity in context
United States of America Australia Land Area 3.79 million mi2 2.97 million mi2 Natural Gas Demand 24.37 Tcf/yr (Net Imports 1.94 Tcf/yr) 2.09 Tcf/yr (Net Exports 1.0 Tcf/yr) 2,203 Tcf1 Gas Resource Potential 820 Tcf2 Gas Prices (US$/MMBtu) $10 $3 $5 $9 Ability to Deliver US AUS Rigs 1,800 50 Wells 37,000 1,200 Processing(3) 600 25 Pipelines (mi) 350,000 20,000 Technically recoverable resources Total demonstrated gas resources Number of plants Source : EIA Independent Statistics & Analysis, EIA Annual Energy Review 2011 , BREE 2012 Gas Resource Assessment, Energy Quest and Santos analysis

12 Australian Exploration Activity and Expenditure
Source: APPEA

13 Historical Oil & Gas Production
Source: APPEA

14 LNG Exports – by country
Australian LNG Exports to Exceed 78 mtpa by 2020

15 Australian & Papua New Guinean LNG Projects
GLNG (C) GLNG Santos / Petronas / Total QCLNG (C) BG Group Scarborough FLNG (P) ExxonMobil / BHP Gorgon (C) Chevron Darwin LNG (O) ConocoPhillips PNG LNG (C) ExxonMobil / Oil Search/ Santos Liquid Niugini Gas (Elk 1&2) (P) InterOil / Total Pluto (O) Woodside Browse (P) NWSV Trains 1-5 (O) Sunrise (P) Wheatstone (C) Chevron / Apache Prelude (C) Shell Ichthys (C) INPEX / Total APLNG (C) Australia Pacific LNG ConocoPhillips / Origin Energy / Sinopec Bonaparte FLNG (P) Santos / GDF SUEZ Arrow LNG (P) Shell / Petro China Offshore Conventional Gas to LNG Projects Coal Seam Gas to LNG Projects Onshore Conventional Gas to LNG Projects (P) Proposed (C) Construction (O) Operating Source: WorleyParsons, CBA

16 Case Study: Ichthys LNG Project
Principal Project Components USD34bn capex budget The upstream facilities comprise around 50 subsea production wells and subsea production systems connected to a Semi-sub central processing facility and FPSO Gas will be transported to the LNG plant at Darwin via an 889km, 42” sub-sea pipeline Once transported to Darwin the gas will be processed at the onshore LNG Facilities. The project is designed to produce approximately 8.4mtpa of LNG from two trains, up to 100,000 bpd of field and plant condensate and up to 1.6mtpa of LPG at peak, with First LNG is scheduled for 2016

17 Conclusions The future of Australian oil & gas is bright.
CBA remains committed to the sector. Oil prices remain high against historical, domestic gas prices are rising – the economic settings are stable. The conventional gas fields in central Australia are enjoying a renaissance. 7 LNG projects will shortly begin producing in and ramp up into 2017. International players continue to invest and support the Australian oil & gas industry. We could do with finding some more oil though.

18 Key Contacts Houston to UPDATE AS RELEVANT Client Coverage Group
Project Finance Equity Capital Markets Grant Willis Managing Director P: E: 85 Queen Victoria St, London England Michael Thorpe Managing Director P: +61 (0) E: 201 Sussex Street Sydney 2000 Geoff Carrick Managing Director P: +61 (0) E: 201 Sussex Street Sydney 2000 Andrew Loadsman Executive Director, Natural Resources P: +61 (0) E: 201 Sussex Street Sydney 2000 Australia Charles Davis Executive Director P: +61 (0) E: 201 Sussex Street Sydney 2000 Michael Neal Executive Director P: +61 (0) E: 201 Sussex Street Sydney 2000 Jan Gabrynowicz Director, Oil, Gas, Energy & Utilities P: +61 (0) E: 201 Sussex Street Sydney 2000 Howard Mann Associate Director P: +61 (0) E: 201 Sussex Street Sydney 2000

19 Disclaimer & Confidentiality
Select which disclaimer to include This Discussion Paper, provided by Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN (‘Commonwealth Bank’), is confidential and is provided to you on the basis that you will not disclose its contents to any person other than your directors, employees, agents and professional advisors without our consent. The information provided in this document is the copyright of Commonwealth Bank. This obligation will not apply if the information is available to the public generally (except as a result of a previous breach of this confidentiality obligation) or you are required to disclose it by law. Commonwealth Bank believes that the information herein is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations contained in this document are reasonably held or made as at the time of its compilation but makes no warranty as to the accuracy and reliability of the completeness of that information. The Commonwealth Bank accepts no responsibility for any loss or damage which may be suffered by any person, directly or indirectly, as a result of the material contained in this document. The contents of this document should not be relied upon as a substitute for appropriate/ professional advice or as a basis for formulating business or other decisions. The information contained in this presentation is made available only for persons who are wholesale clients as defined in the Corporations Act 2001. This document is not intended to represent an offer of finance or to issue any financial products, and is based on Commonwealth Bank’s current understanding of the facts.  Further due diligence of the specific circumstances is required to confirm any outcomes are achievable.  Any subsequent financing proposal would be subject to Commonwealth Bank’s formal review and credit approval process, market conditions at the relevant time and documentation. All legal, accounting or taxation outcomes described or alluded to in this Discussion Paper are provided without any liability whatsoever to Commonwealth Bank, whether for negligence or otherwise, and are not intended to constitute legal, accounting or taxation advice. The information provided is therefore indicative of what the expected outcomes of the transaction might be, based on assumed facts as contemplated by the Discussion Paper, and should not be relied upon.  On this basis, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or thoroughness of content of such information. As actual outcomes will depend on each client’s specific facts and circumstances, it is with respect to such unique facts and circumstances that we strongly advise that your company seek its own legal, accounting and taxation advice.

20 Recoverable Shale Gas Resources: Top 10
Australia – It’s a Gas! Recoverable Shale Gas Resources: Top 10 Shale Gas (TcF) Rank # China 1,115 1 Argentina 802 2 Algeria 707 3 USA 665 4 Canada 573 5 Mexico 545 6 Australia 437 7 South Africa 390 8 Russia 285 9 Brazil 245 10 World Total 7,299 Source: EIA, Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources, June 2013 Source: Geoscience Australia

21 Ichthys LNG Project – Project Financing
Largest ever project financing transaction Inpex (Japan) and Total SA (France) are the major partners in the Ichthys LNG project which raised USD20bn of project financing and reached financial close in January 2013 CBA is the largest non-Japanese lender CBA is the Intercreditor Agent and Uncovered Sub-Facility Agent Largest Project Finance Deal Project sponsor engagement with Export Credit Agencies (ECA) commenced during 2010 – over two years ahead of financial close The financing process commenced in November 2011 when lenders provided preliminary RFPs. Banks provided final credit approvals in June 2012 and Financial Close was reached in January 2013, eight months after receipt of the formal RFP Significant debt amount – USD20bn the largest ever project financing Multi-lender engagement strategy (ECAs, banks and sponsor debt, and provision for bonds) Banks lent USD10.2bn to the project (USD4.8bn Uncovered (47%) and $5.4bn (53%) Covered) 3 ECAs directly lent USD5.8bn, and Sponsors provided loans of USD4bn The project has a number of attractions and some challenges to lenders: Strategically aligned Sponsors group (Inpex 66%, Total 30%), with Total being a well credentialed LNG developer and operator The liquids rich conventional gas resource delivers strong project economics Committed off-take arrangements from ten buyers, 68% going to Japanese buyers, Sponsors buying 21% Robust project finance structure with contracted senior sponsor support in various forms Ichthys LNG Project USD20bn MLAB Commercial Bank Facility December 2012 Ichthys LNG Project USD20bn Intercreditor & Uncovered Sub-Facility Agent December 2012 Asia Pacific Deal of the Year Global Deal of the Year Asia-Pacific Multi-sourced Deal of the Year

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