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© 2008 ICF International. All rights reserved. NYSERDA No Indian Point Case Results June 26, 2009 Contacts: Kevin R. Petak ( ) Vice President,

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Presentation on theme: "© 2008 ICF International. All rights reserved. NYSERDA No Indian Point Case Results June 26, 2009 Contacts: Kevin R. Petak ( ) Vice President,"— Presentation transcript:

1 © 2008 ICF International. All rights reserved. NYSERDA No Indian Point Case Results June 26, 2009 Contacts: Kevin R. Petak ( ) Vice President, Gas Market Modeling Frank E. Brock ( ) Senior Energy Market Specialist ICF International

2 2 Sensitivity Assumptions  Indian Point Nuclear Power Plant is assumed to be retired prior to  Plant generation is fully replaced with a 2.5 GW natural gas-fired combined cycle plant at the same location.  Heat Rate assumed 7,064  Base load consumption of 337 MMcf per day.  Plant operates at an 82 percent load factor.  Plant is served by Algonquin and Millennium Pipelines.

3 3 Seasonal Consumption by Sector:

4 4 Seasonal Consumption by Region:

5 5 Daily RIAMS Conditions  Projected for January  Assumed temperatures on the peak day –New York City is 5 degrees Fahrenheit on the peak gas demand day Average temperature in January is 33 degrees; Average minimum is 15 degrees –Buffalo is -3 degrees Fahrenheit on the peak gas demand day Average temperature in January is 25 degrees; Average minimum is 7 degrees

6 6 Daily Consumption by Sector: Jan 2018

7 7 Daily Consumption by Region: Jan 2018

8 8 New York Gas Peak and Average Day Imports/Exports

9 9 New York Monthly Average Gas Imports/Exports

10 10  Case has nearly 600 MMcf per day of unmet demand on a peak day. –75% in New England –Remaining 25% New York Interruptible  No significant firm curtailments within New York. RIAMS Model Curtailments No Indian Point Case

11 11  Flows on most pipelines similar to reference 2018 case. –Most pipelines are very full on a peak day.  Unmet demand of about 600 MMcf per day in New York and New England due to pipeline constraints.  Relative to the Reference case, largest flow impacts from a new gas-fired power plant at the Indian Point site occur on Algonquin and Millennium pipelines.  Western New York storage is more heavily used to meet load at Indian Point during a peak day.  Without firm contracts for the plant, gas flow would most likely continue on Algonquin into New England as opposed to meeting Indian Point load. RIAMS Model Conclusions No Indian Point Case

12 © 2008 ICF International. All rights reserved. NYSERDA Indian Point Case Results June 26, 2009 Contacts: Kevin R. Petak ( ) Vice President, Gas Market Modeling Frank E. Brock ( ) Senior Energy Market Specialist ICF International


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