Presentation on theme: "Copyright VisionMobile 2007-2010 Knowledge. Passion. Innovation. knowledge. passion. innovation VisionMobile Research Mobile Software Trends October 2010."— Presentation transcript:
Copyright VisionMobile 2007-2010 Knowledge. Passion. Innovation. knowledge. passion. innovation VisionMobile Research Mobile Software Trends October 2010
Copyright VisionMobile 2007-2010 Μobile software trends the battle of operating systems, app stores and developer mindshare Andreas Constantinou, Ph.D. Research Director, VisionMobile follow me on twitter: @andreascon Knowledge. Passion. Innovation.
Copyright VisionMobile 2007-2010 Distiling market noise into market sense Analysis + Mapping + Strategy Market maps Competitive landscape maps of the mobile industry Active Idle Screen Who will own the screen? Mobile Developer Economics 2010 And Beyond GPLv2 vs GPLv3 White Paper Mobile Megatrends Business Intelligence competitive analysis, commissioned research, company due diligence Strategy definition strategy design, ecosystem positioning, product definition Mobile Industry Atlas 1,100+ companies, 69 sectors 100 million club tracking successful businesses in mobile Top-100 analyst blog www.visionmobile.com/blog 4,000 subscribers 90% mobile industry insiders Thought leadership we coined industry terms like on- device portals, active idle screens, customised design manufacturers and introduced new strategy tools: mobile industry evolution centres of gravity
Copyright VisionMobile 2007-2010 Trusted by industry brands Clients selected VisionMobile clients 2008-2010
Copyright VisionMobile 2007-2010 Agenda The App Store war The success recipe for app stores The developer mindshare war Insights into the mobile developer experience 010203 The platform war The evolution of OS and mobile device strategies
One image credits: maschinenraum @ Flickr The platform war
voice phones device retail price connected phones mobile computers OEM internallicensable Key software platforms and their positioning €600+ €400 €50 Nokia Series 40 Samsung SHP LG Wise Note: OSes omitted: Myriad, Mediatek OS, Mango (Qualcomm), Koretide Elastos €150 11 out of 15 platforms have developer ecosystems or industry consortia built around them 14 out of 15 platforms are monetised indirectly by complementary products
Lead, innovate or assemble The three role models for OEMs in the post-Android era Leaders : new product experiences (touch phone, touch tablet, CE, in-car) Innovators (communities, brand, shelf space, analytics, haptics) Wannabees Assemblers (supply chain efficiency) Horizontal player structureVertical player structure
The evolution of device strategies and the four segments of value circa 2015 Leaders Role model: Apple Innovators Role model: HTC Mass producers Role model: Nokia Assemblers Role model: Dell Revenue pyramid
The evolution of device strategies and the four segments of value circa 2015 5% @ €500 1.5 B devices 20% @ €300 25% @ €150 50% @ €50€37.5B €56B €90B €37.5B €220B Profit pyramidRevenue pyramid Leaders Role model: Apple Innovators Role model: HTC Mass producers Role model: Nokia Assemblers Role model: Dell
One image credits: maschinenraum @ Flickr The app store war
Copyright VisionMobile 2007-2010 Why is the Apple recipe hard to copy? The App Store recipe needs end-to-end control of all 5 ingredients: Each ingredient is mastered by different players in the value chain, and requires different technical know-how and commercial relationships.... no wonder Apple is the most successful cook! mobile software firmsmobile operators & payments brokers handset OEMsplatform vendorsbrands and retailers(mastered by)
Copyright VisionMobile 2007-2010 Key predictions for App Stores (2010-2012) 1. Abundance: 100+ App Stores will exist in 2012; Every single tier-1 OEM and MNO is launching their own App Store - enabled by white label App Store solutions from Amdocs, Cellmania, Comverse, Ericsson, Everypoint, GetJar, Handango, Handmark, Ideaworks Labs, Javaground, Mobango, Ondeego, OnMobile, PocketGear, Qualcomm, SlideME and Sun. 2. Diversity: App Stores will cater to diverse segments; OEM, MNO or platform-centric stores, lifestyle-centric stores (e.g. sports or clothes brands), specialist content (e.g. adult or enterprise), region-centric stores (e.g. Seattle apps) 3. Co-existence: several App Stores will co-exist within a handset Case in point: LG and Samsung phones which shipped in 4Q09 in Korea came with four (!) app stores co-existing within the same handset; one from the OEM, one from the platform provider (Windows Mobile) and two from the South Korean operator SK Telecom. 4. Low barriers: App Malls will enable low-cost shops-in-shop setups SDP vendors will offer the infrastructure, catalogue and recommendations technology allowing wannabe app retailers to be setup at very low cost, with proven revenue models (setup fee + rent + sales commission)
Copyright VisionMobile 2007-2010 Key predictions for App Stores (2010-2012) 5. Retailing will triumph - app retailing has been a bottleneck up to 2009 Case in point: the Apple App Store top-25 is the main channel by which apps have been able to grab user attention. This has resulted in price erosion, as app developers drop prices to bubble up to the top-25. - flurry of startups to capitalise on untapped retailing opportunity ApppopularApppopular, Appolicious, Appsfire, Chomp, Chorus, Flurry, I use this, Mplayit, Yappler using voting, automated recommendations, in-app promotions and other techniques to capitalise on retailing opportunity.s, Appsfireus, Flurthis,t, Yapng votomated rec, in-apons and - app stores will take retailing where it’s never been before App Malls (shops-in-shop), friend endorsements, inventory micro-targeting, gift/beg options, second-hand app reselling and other features will spring up, taking retailing to new levels of sophistication. - retailing will grab a large chunk of revenues, as in the FMCG business In the book business, retailers get between 25% (online stores) to 55% (bookstore chains) of the retail price. Mobile app developers will take 70% of revenues, but will spend another 20% or more in app promotions.
Copyright VisionMobile 2007-10 Page Mobile Developer Economics published July 2010 Free download: www.Developer Economics.com - Analysis of the developer experience from design to monetisation - Across all 8 major platforms - Based on a sample of 401 mobile app developers - With significant experience in mobile development More than 60% of respondents have 3+ years of experience in app development. Nearly 30% have won one or more developer awards
Pre-load vs post-load markets * Windows Phone shipments and applications refer to Windows Mobile pre-load marketpost-load market
Copyright VisionMobile 2007-10 Page Platform mindshare Most developers work on multiple platforms The average is 2.8 platforms, across sample of 401 developers Android leads developer mindshare followed by iPhone (iOS), Java ME and Symbian Android is better than other platforms in terms of tools, platform features, and it’s easier to stand out as developer.” Android developer “
Copyright VisionMobile 2007-10 Page Selecting a platform – marketing reasons - Monetisation becoming more important than ever developers have commercial acumen, but asymmetrical information - Addressable market and monetisation more important than any tech reasons
Copyright VisionMobile 2007-10 Page Platform coding Most lines of code: Symbian Symbian needs almost three thousand lines of code for developing 9 simple apps Least lines of code: Android Android averages a little over 1,000 lines for same apps (i.e almost 1/3 of the Symbian coding effort) Symbian developers report quirky development & slow emulator - development is quirky or time-consuming (reported by >50% of platform respondents) - emulator is slow (75% of respondents)
Copyright VisionMobile 2007-10 Page Main channels to the market Top-3 channels to market: 1. App store used by most iPhone and more than 50% of Android & Flash developers 2. Direct via own website 3. Customer via the customer who commissioned it
Copyright VisionMobile 2007-10 Page Time-to-market across all channels App stores minimise time-to-market -They have reduced time-to-shelf by 3 times (from 68 days across traditional channels to 22 days) -They have reduced time-to-payment by more than 2 times (82 days on average to 36 days)
Copyright VisionMobile 2007-2010 Mobile Industry Atlas Your competitive landscape of the mobile industry visionmobile.com/maps Thanks for listening! Open Source for Leaders Workshop covering economics, licensing, communities, competitive landscape & strategies. visionmobile.com/workshops Say hello: email@example.com Follow us on twitter: @visionmobile 100 Million Club tracking successful businesses in mobile visionmobile.com/research
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