Presentation on theme: "1 Digital TV Development: Techno-Economic Planning Considerations John Yip Chief Engineer Radio Television Hong Kong 28 March 2007."— Presentation transcript:
1 Digital TV Development: Techno-Economic Planning Considerations John Yip Chief Engineer Radio Television Hong Kong 28 March 2007
2 1. Introduction Proposing a systematic and practical methodology for analyzing the numerous factors influencing the rollout/ growth of digital TV technologies. Focusing on the application of basic economic concepts to facilitate strategic development. Reducing guesswork.
3 2. Delivery Systems DTT/HDTV ATSCISDB-TDVB-TDMB-T/H The choice of a delivery system may affect rollout/ growth. However, growth depends also heavily on market dynamics and rapid technological adaptation of manufacturers. IPTV ADSL/ADSL2 (for IPTV-SD) ADSL2+/ VDSL2 (for IPTV-HD/SD)
4 2. Delivery Systems Mobile TV (Broadcast) T-DMB S-DMBDVB-HMediaFLO CMMB / STiMi T-MMBDMB-T/H Mobile TV (Cellular) 3G 3.5G / HSDPA UMTS/ MBMS/ TD-CDMA(TDtv)
5 Driving Force, DF =function of (soft factors, hard factors) =M (r, p, m, o) * H (G, g) rp mo whereM = soft factors (regulatory, pricing, marketing, other), and G g H = hard factors (G for macroeconomic, g for geo-physical) 3. Generic Growth Equation and Methodology Equation (for current/ future digital technologies)
6 Soft FactorsHard Factors r : Licensing, spectrum allocation, etc. G : GDP, GDP-per-capita p : Pricing (subsidies, bundling, penetration or predatory pricing) etc. g : Geographical or physical, such as terrain or the area of a city. m : Marketing and promoting. o : Content, consumer habits, preferences, etc. Generic Growth Equation, soft and hard factors
7 Figure 1. S-Curves with picture quality as the performance measurement Source : Technology Strategy, 15.912, Spring 2005, MIT, Sloan School of Management S-curves of technological diffusion
8 Growth (Penetration, %) Baseline growth Soft factor effects Time (Years) 0 Generic Growth Equation, illustrating acceleration by soft factors S-curve for growth (growth at 15% pa or more is strong; 5% pa or less is weak) Critical Mass
9 GDP-per-capita is significant if there is a significant outlay, e.g. for an HDTV display, and/ or a recurrent fee, e.g. in a pay-TV service, over an initial service period of 1-2 years. Regulation can prevent new players from entering the market; minimizing barriers enhances growth. International cooperation and IPR ie transaction cost minimization could allow world-wide use of a digital TV system, analogous to the Coase Theorem (R. Coase, 1959) in economics, on the allocation of property rights re radio frequencies.
10 Proposed process : Form a development team. Analyse hard factors, to form a baseline. For r, p, m, o, compile separate lists of relevant considerations. Assess soft factors through group discussions/ market surveys (eg using Delphi Method). Analyse critical issues; synthesize a roll-out strategy. Liaise with the government where necessary. Methodology, using growth equation
11 4. HDTV Soft Factor Hard Factor GDP * GDP-per-capita, (or AI relative to 100) M h (r, p, m, o) Propelling Factor, HDF = M h (r, p, m, o) * (GDP * GDP-per-capita) where GDP is based on the PPP (Purchasing Power Parity), (GDP * GDP-per-capita) = Affordability factor, and M h is a function of regulatory/ pricing /marketing /other factors.
13 On breaking down function M, HDF = (Ar * Ap * Am * Ao) * (GDP * GDP-per-capita) Ar-mandating early rollout / cessation of analog TV, built- in digital tuners in TV sets, on-air HD quota, spectrum allotment, licensing regime, standardization; Ap-subsidies by governments / operators, assisting viewers eg on HDTV STB; Am-promotional/ marketing campaigns, to promote viewers’ awareness; Ao-quality leap using HD (eg USA and S. Korea, using ATSC, have achieved fast rollout), increasing HD production and sourcing attractive HD programs. 4. HDTV
14 5. IPTV Propelling factor, IPDF =M i (r, p, m, o) * GDP-per-capita * Population Density, = M i (r, p, m, o) * GDP/population * population /area Hence IPDF=M i (r, p, m, o) * GDP /area GDP/area (ie US $billion/ sq. km, PPP, pa) is analogous to annual crop yield in economic farming and harvesting; GDP is computed yearly; it is dimensionally similar to speed. IPDF applies only to a city-sized economy but not to countries with large barren areas.
15 CitiesGDP (PPP) (US $billion) Area in sq. km Yield, pa Hong Kong227.31,0920.21 Singapore124.36930.18 Paris (Metro)4542,7300.17 Potential, IPTV-SD Estimated (GDP/ area) yields: Source Data from World Fact Book and Wikipedia
16 CitiesArea in sq. km Yield, pa New York (City)1,2140.37 New York (Metro)17,4050.05 Tokyo2,1870.53 Potential, IPTV-HD, using IPDF estimate Source Data from World Fact Book and Wikipedia Estimated (GDP/ area) yields, these to be considered together with AI for HDTV:
17 IPTV, Soft Factors (r, p, m, o) Regulatory -licensing, cross-platform content-flow control; regulatory hurdles to be minimized eg allowing cross-platform (terrestrial/ cable/ satellite) content-flow and leaving the market to decide. Pricing -smart and competitive bundling of channel services/ STB plus services, to entice consumers; penetration pricing, using a bundling of attractive program channels plus broadband internet/ VoD and other value-added applications.
18 Marketing/ promoting -advertising and promoting increase awareness and the perceived value (total use value or TUV) of the IPTV services. Other factors -varied contents could be offered, as there are numerous channels. Interactivity, shopping, games and VoD could be offered. FTTH/ FTTP will cater for a very wide range of services on PON (passive optical networks).
19 Mobile TV is a complex subject due to numerous factors, including Spectrum allocation Emerging standards and system maturity Handset designs/ functions and pricing Competition between broadcast and cellular system operators Viewing habits/ reluctance/ lack of understanding Reception reliability in a heavily built-up city; continued investment in maintaining mobile reception reliability. 6. Mobile TV
20 Propelling Factor, MDF = M m (r, p, m, o) * GDP-per-capita *T where T is the Terrain Factor (0 < T =< 1), and MDF applies to a city-sized economy. 6. Mobile TV
21 Terrain includes hills and housing estates. If terrain is flat, T = 1. T is a retarding factor, critical for pay TV. Dependent on frequency band, eg VHF for T-DMB or UHF for DVB-H, and on technology (eg satellite/ terrestrial). By combining satellite, terrestrial and cellular networks, T can be enhanced. Terrain Factor
22 Factors (r, p, m, o) Regulatory -government-led or market-driven development. -allocation of RF spectrum (VHF, UHF, L and S bands) -licensing for broadcast and cellular operations. Pricing -handset cost and design eg battery life, antenna size, unit size and weight, screen size, channel switching/ signal recovery times, reception frequency bands, etc. -Competition between broadcast/ cellular operators. -In a built-up city, the costs of providing and maintaining a reliable network will be off-loaded onto consumers.
23 Marketing / promoting - to increase awareness of the technologies/ benefits and to raise the perceived value of services, hence increasing the demand. -Promotion could take advantage of the young generation’s attraction to fashionable handset designs/ styles and to cultivate consumers’ habits. Other factor - content offerings (news, other real-time information, drama, sports, interactivity, short clips of compelling content including UGC). - consumer habits and attitudes.