My goal today Offer new thinking frameworks & tools Help you re-perceive the opportunities within and around the mobile ecosystem
The fallacy of safety in numbers, or in more savage terms, the status quo Creating your own future?
Signature theme The best way to predict the future is to invent it. Alan Kay ‘Father’ of the PC and GUI interface
Rear view innovation Marshall McLuhan: The “medium is the message” & “the Global Village” guy Smart fellow. Predicted the effects of having information at our beck and call, instantly through cable TV & the Internet - in the1960s.
Rear view innovation “When faced with a totally new situation we tend to attach ourselves to the objects of the most recent past. We look at the present through a rear view mirror. We march backwards into the future.” - Marshall McLuhan
Embedded Worldview Mobile Telephone services Linear shift to new generation networks Voice-device centric
A blank slate? How differently would things look? Long Tail? Time-shifting? Innovation possibilities?
This innovation thing... “Innovation begins with an eye” - IDEO Hole in a wall, not a drill Seeing stuff differently Insight
Creating your future II Write the word R E A C T I V E on a piece of paper.
Creating your future II Write the word R E A C T I V E on a piece of paper. Now move the “C” to the front of the word.
R E A C T I V E C R E A T I V E So how do you see things?
Seeing Differently Other worlds - DNA, RNA -> Distribution model... Naïve experts & Dumb questions Vu jà dé - where to put the armour plating?
Innovation Lag Peter Senge - The Fifth Discipline Ensemble of component technologies: 30-40yrs DC-3: variable pitch propeller retractable landing gear, monocque body construction radial air-cooled engine wing flaps + later, radar & jet engines. vs Boeing 247?
Making connections “I’m not sure who discovered water, but I’m pretty sure it wasn’t a fish.”
The Long Tail Chris Anderson - Wired.com - Amazon, Netflix biz models
“Touching the Void” - mediocre seller...1o years later, “Into Thin Air” Big success Then Void sales increased - now 2:1 Bye bye 80:20 rule in bit-based business
Long Tail with 3G iPod Shuffle + Cellphone Flat rate music download DRM expires content unless bought Choice widens, curiosity incentive Wag the Long Tail “Lease” content to other devices -keep renewing periodically
Time-Shifting VCRs My time, not their time! TiVO....RSS...BitTorrent...Google Video Me-TV Not anonymous on network
Thinking outside the handset Mobile phone service components -Handset -SIM card -Wireless network -Content and services provision -Billing system -Customer relationship.
Thinking outside the handset Creatively re-combine: -Handset -SIM card -Wireless network -Content and services provision -Billing system -Customer relationship. + Small box of electronics
3G Appliance Something to consume Long Tail and Time Shifted services with Operator sells another SIM card
3G Appliance Just some scenarios Creating possibilities! What business am I really in?
The ‘Un-dialed’ Borrow from the banks...unbanked. Mzansi: No frills bank account Do the same for a no-frills telecoms service?
Key Point “When faced with a totally new situation we tend to attach ourselves to the objects of the most recent past. We look at the present through a rear view mirror. We march backwards into the future.” - Marshall McLuhan
Simon de Haast firstname.lastname@example.org / 083 326 3496 A copy of the talk will be available on www.ideafarm.co.za/blog African Telecoms 2005 Rosebank Park Hyatt 2-4 March Thank you