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1 Osservatorio Personal Broadband “Anywhere Network”: Opportunità di Mercato e Nuovi Scenari Tecnologici Andrea Calcagno, Resp. Osservatorio e CEO & EVP.

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Presentation on theme: "1 Osservatorio Personal Broadband “Anywhere Network”: Opportunità di Mercato e Nuovi Scenari Tecnologici Andrea Calcagno, Resp. Osservatorio e CEO & EVP."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 Osservatorio Personal Broadband “Anywhere Network”: Opportunità di Mercato e Nuovi Scenari Tecnologici Andrea Calcagno, Resp. Osservatorio e CEO & EVP WiTech SpA

2 Agenda  Saluto e introduzione, a cura del Presidente dr. Achille De Tommaso  Anywhere Network Concept. Andrea Calcagno, Resp. Osservatorio e CEO & EVP WiTech  4G Business Case for 2.6 GHz. Andrea Calcagno, Resp. Osservatorio e CEO & EVP WiTech  Case Study: Freemax, Wireless Broadband 4G Operator in Tuscany. Eric Le Bihan, President & CEO Fremax

3 Anywhere Network Concept

4 Agenda Anywhere Network Access Consumer Access Evolution Anywhere Access Experience

5 Anywhere Anywhere Network Access Combines Two Lifestyles: Wired and Wireless Source: Yankee Group, 2009

6 Consumer Access Anywhere Network Access Will Grow To a Nearly $1 Trillion Business by 2012 Source: Yankee Group Link Data: 2008 Market Adoption Monitors & Forecasts: Consumer

7 Consumer Access Global Wireless Broadband Connections Are Also Outpacing Wired Broadband Source: Yankee Group Market Adoption Monitors & Forecasts

8 Anywhere experience Anywhere Experiences Combine the Quality of Wired with the Ubiquity of Wireless Source: Yankee Group, 2009

9 Anywhere experience Source: Yankee Group, 2009 Anywhere Combines the Best of Both Wired and Wireless Access

10 Anywhere experience Source: Yankee Group, 2009 Seamless Anywhere Experiences Need Aspects of Both Wired and Wireless Experiences

11 4G Business Case for 2.6 GHz

12 Agenda 4G Technologies 4G Deployment Model Business Case Conclusion

13 4G Technologies Rel e-2005 Rel e-2005Rel m HSPA Rel-6 HSPA+ Rel-7 &Rel-8 LTE & LTE Advanced Mobile WiMAX 3GPP IP E2E Network CKT Switched Network OFDMA - Based CDMA - Based IMT- Advanced

14 4G Technologies 2G/3G/3.5G Next Generation Access Network Data Overlay or Replacement LTE or WiMAX All-IP Core Network 2G/3G/3.5G Core Network T1,E1 Increased BH Capacity Conversion to All-IP core & Increased Backhaul capacity Comparable Capex – New Spectrum Need Support for Legacy RAN

15 4G Technologies

16 Deployment Model Hotspot coverage Urban Coverage National Coverage Home Base Station

17 Business Case Scenario: Urban Coverage ( Roma, Milano, Napoli, Torino, Firenze) 4G Technology: LTE ( 10 MHz, FDD, MIMO 2x2) Band: 2.6 GHz Urban Scenario Dense Urban Scenario Target Market: Consumer Service Profile: Mobile Broadband (Flat Data and VoIP) Operator Type: CLEC ( COMPETITIVE LOCAL EXCHANGE CARRIER ) or Green Field Devices: Handset and Tablet Business Case Tool: TEA|LTE

18 Business Case – Market Analysis Roma Summary

19 Business Case – Market Analysis|Service Profile Handset 70% - Tablet 30%

20 Business Case – Market Analysis|Forecast Roma| Total Users Forecast

21 Business Case – Market Analysis|Forecast Roma| Lost Users Forecast

22 Business Case – Market Analysis|Forecast Roma| Net Users Forecast

23 Business Case – Market Analysis|Forecast Total Net Users Forecast

24 Business Case – Market Analysis|Forecast Total Revenues

25 Business Case – Technical Analysis|Technology 4G Technology: LTE ( 10 MHz, FDD, MIMO 2x2) Band: 2.6 GHz

26 Business Case – Technical Analysis|Equipment Base Station: eNode B Devices

27 Business Case – Technical Analysis|Perfomance

28

29 Business Case – Technical Network Dimensioning MME S-GW/P-GW eNode B UT

30 Business Case – Technical Network Dimensioning MME S-GW/P-GW eNode B UT e Node B with MW BH Urban 20% Dense Urban 10% DA RIFARE

31 Business Case – Roll Out MME S-GW/P-GW eNode B UT

32 Business Case – EF Analysis Personnel

33 Business Case – EF Analysis CAPEX & OPEX

34 Business Case – EF Analysis EBITDA > 0 3rd Year EBIT > 0 4th Year Net Income > 0 6th Year Income Statement

35 Business Case – EF Analysis Peak Funding 74 M€ PBP 6.3 Years NPV 18,45 M€ CFCF 100 M€ Cash Flow

36 Business Case – Conclusion ARPU Customer Lifetime CAPEX OPEX 4G Business Case – Urban Coverage – CLEC/Green Field Value Added Applications Advertising Revenues Broadband Devices New pricing model More devices for User Appl. Open Access Better User Experience No Legacy Economies of scale All-IP Network Spectral Effinciency Virtual Network Opportunity FTTS Flat Architecture

37 Backup Slide sul Business Case Tool: TEA-LTE

38 WiMAX & LTE Project Life-Cycle (1) As for any carrier-class Broadband Wireless Access infrastructure, building a WiMAX & LTE network is and will remain a complex undertaking, … Business Case Budget Allocation Definitive Project Network Building Quality Assurance Services Launch Optimization

39 WiMAX & LTE Project Life-Cycle (2) … and the initial planning phases are particularly critical to set a solid foundation for the success of the initiative. … Business Case Budget Allocation Definitive Project Network Building Quality Assurance Services Launch Optimization

40 A Holistic, Iterative Approach is Needed Since the Outset Technical Analysis Dimensioning the WiMAX & LTE Access and Backhauling network infrastructures, defining the required bill of quantities Market Analysis Evaluating the potential market for WiMAX & LTE services, identifying target markets, defining service profiles, and forecasting Revenues Economic & Financial Analysis Calculating Capex & Opex and evaluating all WiMAX & LTE Business Plan’s KPI Scenario & Sensitivity Analysis Iterative fine-tuning of the WiMAX & LTE Business Plan, analyzing the influence of parameter and boundary condition changes Taking into account all technology and business aspects to ensure an iterative alignment of business and technology strategies allowing to identify all main cost drivers

41 WiTech TEA Family of Business Case Analysis Tools LTE Supporting 4G operators, vendors and consultants in their strategic planning activities with thoroughly integrated techno-economic analyses Technical Analysis Scenario & Sensitivity Analysis Market Analysis Economic & Financial Analysis TM

42 WiTech TEA Family of Business Case Analysis Tools  Based on real best practices  Equipped with well calibrated, WiMAX & LTE technology-related market, technical, and economic models  Presenting manageable Input and Output with meaningful correlations  Supporting an iterative way of working by design through an easy-to-use, dashboard- styled GUI LTE TM

43 TEA|WIMAX & TEA|LTE – Market Analysis  Evaluating the potential market for WiMAX & LTE services, considering: –Type of territory (dense urban, urban, suburban/exurban, rural) –Type of segment (residential/soho; small, middle, and large enterprises/institutions) –Type of application model (fixed, nomadic, portable, and mobile) –Type of service (technical characteristics and pricing policies) –Churn impact

44 TEA|WIMAX & TEA|LTE – Technical Analysis  Preliminary dimensioning the WiMAX & LTE Access & Backhauling network infrastructures, considering: –Down-link and up-link capacity demand (by market segment and rollout plan) –Aggregated total capacity –Existing backbone infrastructures –Type of wireless backhauling technology (SDH, PDH, IP Ethernet, License exempt) –Base Station / Enhanced Node B & User Terminal / User Equipment characterization (antenna gain, transmit power, diversity gain, losses, sector number, terminal type, MIMO) –Path loss model (Cost-231, SUI, ECC-33, Log-Normal with/without Shadowing, Free Space) –Compliance with standard WiMAX Forum’s Fixed & Mobile System Profiles (plus the possibility to define custom profiles)

45 TEA|WIMAX & TEA|LTE – Economic & Financial Analysis  Calculating all key economic & financial figures and evaluating KPI in the WiMAX & LTE initiative's Business Plan: –Capex & Opex (spectrum license, connectivity, backhauling, BTS / eNB, UT / UE, ASN GW & CSN / EPC & CN, personnel, marketing, SG&A, etc.) –Depreciations –TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) –Relevant Indicators (Gross Margin, EBITDA, EBIT, NPV, IRR, PBP, Shareholder value, etc.)

46 TEA|WIMAX & TEA|LTE – Scenario & Sensitivity Analysis  Enabling the user to fine-tune the WiMAX & LTE initiative’s business plan, in real-time and total privacy, and to view the results in an animated graphical format instantly for all analyses: –Market Analysis –Technical Analysis –Economic & Financial Analysis


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