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Contents What’s a cellular phone actually? A glance at global handset market. What about China? Global 3G rollout history, current status, and China’s.

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Presentation on theme: "Contents What’s a cellular phone actually? A glance at global handset market. What about China? Global 3G rollout history, current status, and China’s."— Presentation transcript:

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2 Contents What’s a cellular phone actually? A glance at global handset market. What about China? Global 3G rollout history, current status, and China’s 3G outlook. Emerging 3G applications. “Next big thing” examples: mobile TV, mobile banking/payment.

3 Contents What’s a cellular phone actually? A glance at global handset market. What about China? Global 3G rollout history, current status, and China’s 3G outlook. Emerging 3G applications. “Next big thing” examples: mobile TV, mobile banking.

4 Wireless communication basis Communication terminal -> personal universal computing device, CP + AP: from a phone to a computer Application is moving from PC to Phone How a phone is build: names alone the foodchain of mobile phone biz… - Platforms: IC and key SW company (Qualcomm, TI, Freescale, Infineon…) - Components: memory, display, battery, connectors - ODM/DH: sourcing, ID/MD, board, MMI - OEM: manufacturing N, M, S, L, S - Channels: sales, service Mobile phone HW architecture (e.g. Freescale i.300) RF BB + SC (CP & AP) Connectivity MMI Power Storage

5 The language the phone talks to the network with: Protocol stack Just an example on how complicated a mobile phone can be Who design it, who implement it, how test it, who sell and market it.

6 What is cellular phone actually?... Just the UE of a system GSM/GPRS system architecture A phone is just a pit of an iceberg. UE or MS Complicated ecosystem: - standard bodies: ETSI, 3GPP, 3GPP2… - mobile phone makers, - network devices makers: Moto, Siemens, Nokia, Ericsson, Nortel, Lucent, ZTE, Huawei, Datang… - operators: Vodafone, T-Mobile, Hutchson, Singular, CMCC, China Unicom … - tech enablers: network planning… - test houses: IOT, Compliance… - policy and law makers: MII, frequent resource management, operator, OEM license

7 Cellular mobile system, generation of evolution 1G, 2G, 2.5G, 2.75G, 3G, 3.5G, 3.75G and beyond Main standard family: - GSM -> GPRS -> EDGE -> UMTS (WCDMA) -> HSDPA (www.ETSI.org, - CDMA -> CDMA20001x -> CDMA20001x EV-DO -> CDMA20001x EV-DV (www.3GPP2.org)www.3GPP2.org - TD-SCDMA (www.tdscdma- forum.org)www.tdscdma- forum.org

8 Contents What’s a cellular phone actually? New acronyms kill me - basis of some other related wireless communication technologies A glance at global handset market. What about China? Global 3G rollout history, current status, and China’s 3G outlook. Emerging 3G applications. “Next big thing” examples: mobile TV, mobile banking.

9 IrDA Infrared Data Association. (www.irda.org)www.irda.org IrDA is used to provide wireless connectivity for devices that would normally use cables to connect. IrDA is a point-to-point, narrow angle (30°cone), ad-hoc data transmission standard designed to operate over a distance of 0 to 1 meter and at speeds of 0.96 to 16 Mbps IrDA is not able to penetrate solid objects and has limited data exchange applications compared to other wireless technologies IrDA is mainly used in payment systems, in remote control scenarios or when synchronizing two PDAs with each other Falls in PAN category Technically mature and mass shipped. Gradually replaced by Bluetooth.

10 Bluetooth IEEE Promoted by Bluetooth SIG (www.bluetooth.com/Bluetooth/SIG/). Key member incl. Agere, Ericsson, Intel, Lenovo, Microsoft, Motorola, Nokia, Toshiba. >4000 members.www.bluetooth.com/Bluetooth/SIG/ Bluetooth wireless technology is geared towards voice and data applications, operates in the 2.4 GHz spectrum, covers mainly a distance of 10 meters, with a peak data rate ~3 Mbps The cost of Bluetooth module is under $3 Falls in PAN category Technically mature and mass shipped. Now on the rise.

11 ZigBee IEEE Promoted by ZigBee Alliance (www.zigbee.org) Key 9 member incl. Philips, Honeywell, Mitsubishi Electric, Motorola, Samsung, BM Group, Chipcon, Freescale and Ember; Now with >70 memberswww.zigbee.org Capacity of 250 Kbits at 2.4 GHz, 40 Kpbs at 915 Mhz, and 20 Kpbs at 868 Mhz with a range of M Its purpose is to become a wireless standard for remote control in the industrial field The ZigBee technology is targeting the control applications industry, which does not require high data rates, but must have low power, low cost and ease of use (remote controls, home automation, etc.) ZigBee is also low cost. (module price $ ) Falls in PAN category Future not clear

12 NFC Near Field Communication Promoted by the NFC Forum (www.nfc-forum.org). Key 12 members incl. MasterCard, Visa, Microsoft, Motorola, NEC, Nokia, Panasonic, Philips, Renesas, Samsung, Sony, TI.www.nfc-forum.org Capacity: 212 kbps over a distance from 0 to 20 centimeters over the Mhz frequency range The NFC standard is based on RFID technology Applications suggested for NFC include ticketing, payment and gaming Support for a passive mode of communication leads to savings on battery power Falls in sub-PAN category New technology with seemingly bright future

13 RFID Radio Frequency Identification There are over 140 different ISO standards for RFID for a broad range of applications With RFID, a passive or unpowered tag can be powered at a distance by a reader device. The receiver, which must be within a few feet, pulls information off the ‘tag,’ and then looks up more information from a database. Alternatively, some tags are self-powered, ‘active’ tags that can be read from a greater distance RFID can operate in low frequency (less than 100 MHz), high frequency (more than 100 MHz), and UHF (868 to 954 MHz) Uses include tracking inventory both in shipment and on retail shelves New technology, starting to roll out, future is promising

14 UWB Ultra Wideband, IEEE UWB is a revolutionary wireless technology for transmitting digital data over a wide spectrum of frequency bands with very low power. It can transmit data at very high rates (for wireless local area network applications) To date, UWB only has regulatory approval in the United States. UWB products are slow to come to market due to the disagreements over the standard and the lack of global regulatory approval Ideally, it will have low power consumption, low price, high speed, use a wide swath of radio spectrum, carry signals through obstacles (doors, etc.) and apply to a wide range of applications (defense, industry, home, etc.) Currently, there are two competing UWB standards. The UWB Forum (www.uwbforum.org) is promoting one standard based on DS-UWB, backed mainly by Motorola and XSI. The WiMedia Alliance (www.wimedia.org) is promoting another standard based on Multi-band OFDM, backed mainly by TI and Intelwww.uwbforum.orgwww.wimedia.org Each standard allows for data rates from approximately Mbps at a range of 2 meters and a data rate of approximately 110 Mbps at a range of up to 10 meters Falls in PAN category Future technology, future still not clear

15 Wi-Fi Wi-Fi (Wireless LAN), IEEE The Wi-Fi Alliance (www.wi-fi.org) tests and certifies based wireless equipmentwww.wi-fi.org a: This uses OFDM, operates in the 5 GHz range, and has a maximum data rate of 54 Mbps b: Operates in the 2.4 GHz range, has a maximum data rate of 11 Mbps and uses DSSS b is the original Wi-Fi standard g: Operates in the 2.4 GHz range, uses OFDM and has a maximum data rate of 54 Mbps. This is backwards compatible with b n: This standard is expected to operate in the 5 GHz range and offer a maximum data rate of over 100 Mbps (though some proposals are seeking upwards of 500 Mbps) n will handle wireless multimedia applications better than the other standards System complicated. Power consumption high. Not suitable for device on battery. Falls into MAN category Under rolling out, mass accepted tech in parts of the world. Tech evolves toward WiMax/WiBro

16 WiMax Wireless Interoperability for Microwave Access, IEEE WiMax has a range of 50 km with data rates of 70 Mbps. Typical cell has a shorter range The original standard operated in the GHz frequency bands with line of sight environments (The newly completed a standard operates between 2 and 11 GHz and does not need line of sight ) Delays in regulatory approval in Europe due to issues regarding the use of the spectrums in the 2.8 GHz and 3.4 GHz range Supports vehicle mobility for between 20 to 100+ km/hr. The e standard will allow nomadic portability Created to compete with DSL and cable modem access, the technology is considered ideal for rural, hard to wire areas Potential competitor to mobile 3G technologies (WCDMA, CDMA2000, TD-SCDMA) Falls into MAN category Backed mainly by Intel at Future not clear yet.www.wimaxforum.org

17 WiBro Wireless Broadband, IEEE Portable Internet Service (WiBro) is to provide a high data rate wireless internet access with PSS (Personal Subscriber Station) under the stationary or mobile environment, anytime and anywhere. Primarily based in South Korea based on TTA specifications MHz, TDD, OFDMA, channel bandwidth 10 MHz, etc. System shall support mobile users at a velocity of up to 60km/h Throughput (per user) Max. DL / UL = 3 / 1 Mbps, Min. DL / UL = 512 / 128 Kbps Compared to WiMax, strength in mobile environment and weakness in coverage. Falls into MAN category Very new tech and future not clear yet.

18 UMA Unlicensed Mobile Access (UMA) technology provides access to GSM and GPRS mobile services over unlicensed spectrum technologies, including Bluetooth and By deploying UMA technology, service providers can enable subscribers to roam and handover between cellular networks and public and private unlicensed wireless networks using dual- mode mobile handsets New tech taking off, need to be proved by market.

19 Contents What’s a cellular phone actually? A glance at global handset market. What about China? Global 3G rollout history, current status, and China’s 3G outlook. Emerging 3G applications. “Next big thing” examples: mobile TV, mobile banking.

20 Global mobile handset subscriber base forecast

21 Global mobile handset subscribers by standard

22 Mobile handset NEW subscribers by region

23 Mobile handset/device production forecast

24 Quarterly mobile handset market shares

25 Market TiersPhone Segment uPMemoryDisplayGPSMusicGfxCameraVideoData Rates (typ) High-endPDA-Phone and High- end Smart Phone 300+ MHz ARM11 / ARM9 256MB Flash 32MB RAM 2.8” VGA 256k Color N/A3D E-AAC+ MP3 WMA 3D4M Still VGA Video 30fps VGA Enc/Dec HSDPA W-CDMA EDGE PremiumSmart Phone 225MHz ARM11 / ARM9 128MB Flash 16MB RAM 2.2” QVGA 256k Color N/A3D E-AAC+ MP3 WMA 3D2M Still QVGA Video 25fps QVGA Dec 15fps QVGA Enc HSDPA W-CDMA EDGE Feature Phone 150MHz ARM9 64MB Flash 16MB RAM 2.2” QVGA 256k Color N/AE-AAC+ MP3 WMA 2D- 3D 2M Still QCIF Video 30fps QCIF Enc/Dec HSDPA W-CDMA EDGE GPRS Entry-Level Feature Phone 100MHz ARM9 32MB Flash 16MB RAM 1.9” QCIF+ 256k Color N/AE-AAC+ MP3 2D1.3M – 2M Still 15-20fps QCIF Decode Limited Enc HSDPA W-CDMA EDGE GPRS ValueBasic Phone ARM9 / ARM7 16MB Flash 8MB RAM 1.5” Sub-QCIF 65k Color N/AAAC, MP3 ring tones 2D for UI VGA/1.3M Or no camera Limited Dec No Enc HSDPA W-CDMA EDGE GPRS Voice- Centric Phone (developed regions) ARM74MB Flash 8MB RAM 1.5” Sub-QCIF 4k Color Single disp. N/APolyph ring tones 2D for UI N/A GPRS Ultra Low Cost Voice- Centric Phone (emerging regions) ARM74MB Flash 8MB RAM Sub-QCIF Mono- chrome Single disp. N/APolyph ring tones 2D for UI N/A GPRS (50%) (15%) (25%) (10%) $20 BOM $50 BOM $75 BOM $125 BOM 2007 market segmentation

26 Low-end moving up / high-end moving down

27 Contents What’s a cellular phone actually? A glance at global handset market. What about China? Global 3G rollout history, current status, and China’s 3G outlook. Emerging 3G applications. “Next big thing” examples: mobile TV, mobile banking.

28 China handset market update BDA China update Aug.ppt Domestic brand new handset market will exceed 100 millions of units in China’s handset production will greatly driven by export shipments of MNC and Chinese OEMs. 47.3% of worldwide handset shipments will be made in China in A few top Chinese OEMs have resolved their historical problem and are poised to have a promising future in 2006; Some new license holders also have a good chance to win There will be a fiercely fight among Chinese brands, foreign and gray brands this year, some brands will disappear… Hundred of handset design houses or system integrators have emerged in China MNC OEMs may outsource design to China and other Asian countries to reduce their large R&D cost, however, leading Chinese OEMs continue to enhance their in-house design capabilities.

29 Players along the food chain Semicon vendors: Qcom, TI, NXP, Freescale, Infineon, Agere vs MTK, Spreatrum (Semicon industry trend, domestic vs foreign) ODM/IDHs: Techfaith, Simcom, CECW, Longcheer… (booming new industry) EMS: Solectron, Flextronics, Foxconn… OEM: TCL, Bird, Lenovo, Konka… Sales channels:

30 Contents What’s a cellular phone actually? A glance at global handset market. What about China? Global 3G rollout history, current status, and China’s 3G outlook. Emerging 3G applications. “Next big thing” examples: mobile TV, mobile banking.

31 Global 3G network status By middle of 2006: WCDMA: 120+ operators, with ~80M subscribers CDMA2000 EV-DO: 40+ operators, with ~30M subscribers 3G subscribers: Only a single digit percentage of all mobile subscribers

32 Lesson: 3G license auction 1999, the beginning: Finland and Spain 2000, the crazy year: 12 European country. E.g. UK, 5 license, 34B USD; German, 6 license, 56B$; year end slow e.g. Holland, 2.5B USD 2001, a frozen year: E.g. HK, 4 license, 1.88B HKD , bad consequence show up. operator in financial problem, 3G service postponed, recalled or returned license , Europe, US, Japan and Korea 3G service really start to take off. Auction or appoint: most European country / France

33 China 3G status Biggest base of subscriber, but very low ARPU 3G late compared to other countries 3 standards: WCDMA, CDMA2000, and TD-SCDMA (respective industry scale, mature or not) All 6 mobile and fix line operator will compete for 3G license: China Mobile, China Unicom, China Telecom, China Netcom, China Railcom, China Satcom. Promise of 3G service before 08 Olympics Game Beijing License not issued: TD first, followed by W and C. A 6 month interval or 2 year Which standard will be eventually dominant, TD or W Mature and ever growing mobile 3G telecom equipment industry, with decent R&D capability, buy whose equipment 2007 may be the year. Original trial city New trial city Beijing Baoding Shenyang Qinhuangdao Shanghai Xiamen Hong Kong Tianjin Qingdao ScheduleDetails Jun. TD-SCDMA trial network constructed in 3 new cities with over 100 base stations each. The newly added cities were Baoding, Qingdao, and Xiamen following on the original trials in Beijing and Shanghai. Jul. Network access tests for TD-SCDMA handset completed 11 handset vendors were issued network access licenses, including Datang, Holley, Samsung and Motorola. Aug. Test network operations and terminal usage in networks with 5000 terminals in each city Sept. Large scale test for value-added services, including video telephony, MMS, SMS and streaming service Dec. Trials expected to be completed

34 Why it takes so long in China… Big decision to make: Telecom is key industry to a country’s economy and safety, like finance, energy, transportation, health care… trillion of dollars of investment Tech IPR fee Is 3G service really needed now? How to issue license… keep European license auction lesson in mind. Impact and China comm industry and many of the key China and foreign companies: ZTE, Huawei, DTT... vs Moto, Nokia, Siemens, Ericsson, Alcatel, Nortel, Lucent… Change of the operators monopolization map: -Option 1: 3 licenses. China Mobile -> WCDMA, China Unicom CDMA2000, China Telecom -> WCDMA + TD-SCDMA -Option 2: 4 licenses. China Mobile -> WCDMA, China Unicom -> CDMA2000, China Telecom -> WCDMA+TD-SCDMA, China Netcom -> WCDMA+TD-SCDMA -Option 3: 2 license: China Mobile + China Netcom -> WCDMA+TD-SCDMA, China Unicom + China Telecom -> CDMA2000 -Option 4: 3 licenses, China Mobile -> WCDMA, China Telecom + China Unicom CDMA Dept -> CDMA2000, China Netcom + China Unicom GSM Dept -> TD-SCDMA Support of home grown technology, TD not mature, need country backup Innovation capability is in the center of the country leader’s radar screen. TD will be the trend setter for many new China tech innovation and standards: WAPI, DTV…

35 Contents What’s a cellular phone actually? A glance at global handset market. What about China? Global 3G rollout history, current status, and China’s 3G outlook. Emerging 3G applications. “Next big thing” examples: mobile TV, mobile banking.

36 Bring enhanced user experiences

37 End-user’s Data experience is shifting Operator Mobile Data Revenue by Application Type By 2007, Rich Content, Location, and Multimedia Applications Are Expected To Dominate Operators’ Data Revenue

38 3G applications Changes -Telecom features: Bandwidth, Capacity, Cost, QoS, CS->PS, Multimedia -Many new type of mobile phones, data cards, and modules Entertainment -On-line gaming -Mobile TV -Content downloading / streaming: Ring tone, theme pix, music, movie, video clip, application -Mobile advertisement -High speed internet and infotainment (US vs Japan) Productivity -Mobile commerce: sell or order of goods and service, B2B / B2C, Mobile banking / brokerage / bill payment -Video conference, video IM -Mobile office: / VPN, procedure (ERP, CRM, SCM…), tools -Remote control and monitoring (household, automobile, health…) -Location based service -PoC

39 Contents What’s a cellular phone actually? A glance at global handset market. What about China? Global 3G rollout history, current status, and China’s 3G outlook. Emerging 3G applications. “Next big thing” examples: mobile TV, mobile banking.

40 Application example 1: Mobile TV Pros: mobility, customization; Cons: screen size, audio/video quality Not to replace traditional TV but to create a different use case: different set of contents (movie preview, MTV, news, comedy movie clip, sports highlight) on different hours (On the run, lunch break) New user experience: totally customized, VoD, TV for me instead TV for all. Implementation: -Via the cellular channel: over GPRS/CDMA1x (US, China…) now and MBMS, BCMCS for future enhancement. limited bandwidth, subject to network current situations. -Via the satellite: S-DMB (Korea, European), STiMi (China) -Via terrestrial DTV broadcasting: DVB-H (Europe, from DVB-T), ISDB-T (Japan), MediaFLO (US), T-DMB (Korea), TsinhuaUniv DMB-TH, ShCommUniv ADTB-T (China) Network construct, management, and billing: Broadcasting (contents, license) with or vs Telecom (user verification, billing, uplink interaction, cross-country org, budget). No single standard is going to prevail. China standardization is ongoing, and policy not clear.

41 Standard roll out map

42 Terrestrial DTV broadcasting for mobile: the hottest topic nowadays

43 手机电视的使用调查 手机电视的使用场合 (基数=所有被访者) 67% 43% 20% 18% 10% 7% 5% 3% 2% 64% 30% 22% 6% 2% 8% 1% 7% 1% 上下班路上 / 交通工具上 办公午休时间 家里 出差在外 机场侯机厅内 办公时间 想休闲的时候 等人时 朋友聚会时 试用前预期(基数= 360 ) 试用后(基数= 180 ) 手机电视的使用目的 (基数= 180 ) 体验新产 品 1% 向他人炫 耀 1% 休闲娱乐 72% 获取信息 26%

44 国外手机电视的发展情况 国外商用: 韩国 S-DMB 方式:于 2005 年 5 月开始商用(收费模式),截止 06 年 2 月底,用户达到 46 万; 韩国 T-DMB 方式:于 2005 年年底开始运营(免费模式),截止 06 年 2 月底,用户将近 5 万; 日本 ISDB-T 方式,于 2006 年 4 月开始运营(免费模式) 国外试验: 德国和芬兰 DVB-H 方式; 美国的 DVB-H 和 MediaFLO 方式 BT Livetime trial ,采用 DAB-IP

45 手机电视的商务模式 模式一:广播公司采用单向广播,用户免费接收方式,运营商负责业务推广和终端销售 模式二:运营商和广播公司合作推广,运营商负责用户鉴权和收费管理 模式三:广播网络运营商开放网络资源,运营商通过租用广播网络资源自行组织业务

46 中国市场规模预测 预测显示,未来 5 年,中国手机电视的业务用户将会接近于手机用户的 8% ,超过 5000 万。手机 电视的收入规模仅是业务收费的规模就将达到 200 亿元人民币以上,还不包括广告的收入。

47 面临的主要问题  政策标准  硬件技术  资费问题  消费习惯 电池容量 屏幕精度 传输速率 视频帧数 电池容量 屏幕精度 传输速率 视频帧数  终端普及率  业务创新 政府管制模糊 标准不统一 两网融合促进 政府管制模糊 标准不统一 两网融合促进 信息费 流量费 业务开通费 信息费 流量费 业务开通费 短暂空闲 时间使用 普通电视的补充 短暂空闲 时间使用 普通电视的补充 终端价格高 终端种类少 终端互通性 终端价格高 终端种类少 终端互通性 多元化内容 个性化内容 定制内容化 互动娱乐创新 多元化内容 个性化内容 定制内容化 互动娱乐创新 商业模式 产业链条 精彩内容 终端支持 用户体验 合理资费

48 Application example 2: Mobile banking and payment Imagine: Only the mobile phone, and forget all you bank cards Service: Pay the utility bill, bank account management: check / transfer / remit…, payment: retail for goods/service/ticket, public transportation Tech implementation: Web/WAP based, phone board / SIM extension with RFID Problem to sort out: Security, Cross-Platform (Java, Brew), Cross-industry management Operation: mobile operators, banks, 3 rd -party entities

49 Mobile payment 1. 收银员在 POS 机上输入刷卡金额,用户将手机靠近带有 RFID 阅读器的 POS 机; 2. POS 机读取 RFID 中的银行卡账号信息; 3. POS 机将用户银行账号信息和交易金额发送到银行; 4. 银行返回认证质询消息, POS 机收到后提示用户输入密码; 5. 用户在 POS 机上输入密码, POS 根据用户密码计算认证应答,发送到银行; 6. 银行确认用户合法身份后,把交易金额从用户账户中划拨到超市的账户中,然后向 POS 机发送交易成功信息; 7. 交易成功后,银行根据用户登记注册的信息查找到用户手机号码,然后通过移动支付平台向用户发送详细的成功交易信息。

50 RFID 手机订购电子门票的业务流程: 1. 用户通过手机选择参加活动的时间、地点、座位、购买电子门票的张数、指定接收电子门票的手机号码(如果指定多个手机号码,用户还需要指定各个 手机号码接收的电子门票张数)等; 2. 用户通过手机将订购信息和付款信息发送给移动支付平台; 3. 移动支付平台将用户付款信息发送给银行进行核准; 4. 银行核准用户付款是否有效,并将核准结果返回给移动支付平台; 5. 如果用户付款无效,移动支付平台返回 “ 交易失败 ” 及失败原因的信息给用户手机,结束此次交易; 6. 如果用户付款有效,移动支付平台产生一个 “ 交易号 ” ,用户可凭订购电子门票的手机号码和交易密码获取此交易号; 7. 移动支付平台将电子门票发送到用户指定的手机号码,并且向订购电子门票的手机发送 “ 交易成功 ” 的信息;(如果由于网络原因用户手机不能正常接收 购买的电子门票,用户可凭交易号通过网络或者票务中心的服务点获取订购的电子门票。) 8. 用户手机接收到电子门票后,将其保存在手机上的 RFID 标签中;( RFID 手机中可以保存多张、不同活动的电子门票,数量视 RFID 标签的存储容量而 定。) 9. 如果用户需要打印门票,可凭 RFID 手机上的电子门票,通过自助票务打印设备或者票务中心的服务点进行打印。 持保存电子门票的 RFID 手机入场的业务流程: 1. 入场时,用户激活 RFID 手机上本次活动的电子门票,将手机靠近带 RFID 阅读器的验票机,验票机从手机 RFID 标签中读取电子门票信息; 2. 验票机检查电子门票的真实性和有效性,如果检查通过,用户可入场,否则,用户不能入场; 3. 如果电子门票真实有效,验票机标注 RFID 手机中的电子门票为 “ 已使用 ” 状态,并且通知后台服务器,标注这张电子门票 “ 已使用 ” ; 4. 用户可通过 RFID 手机查阅每张电子门票的具体信息,如活动时间、地点、座位等。入场后,用户根据 RFID 手机上的电子门票按位就坐。 Mobile ticketing


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