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ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007 1 Renewable Energy Yesterday’s alternative – tomorrow’s mainstream Philip Wolfe.

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Presentation on theme: "ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007 1 Renewable Energy Yesterday’s alternative – tomorrow’s mainstream Philip Wolfe."— Presentation transcript:

1 ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007 1 Renewable Energy Yesterday’s alternative – tomorrow’s mainstream Philip Wolfe

2 ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007 2 There’s still time

3 ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007 3 The end

4 ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007 4 Taking a different path Achieving quantum change – the politics Vision to delivery – targets and directives Leadership or drift – UK energy policy Changing the paradigm – 2020 scenarios Brave new world – renewable hotspots

5 ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007 5 Achieving quantum change – the politics

6 ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007 6 Environment trends

7 ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007 7 Vision to delivery – targets and directives

8 ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007 8 A lot of 20%’s The EU commitments for 2020 Emissions reductions Binding >20% unilateral, or >30% if multilateral Energy conservation Non-binding >20% below current projections Renewables Binding >20% of total energy >10% of transport fuels Emissions reductions Binding >20% unilateral, or >30% if multilateral Energy conservation Non-binding >20% below current projections Renewables Binding >20% of total energy >10% of transport fuels total energy

9 ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007 9 20% Renewables – EU vision

10 ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007 10 Leadership or drift – UK energy policy

11 ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007 11 Energy White Paper “The 20% renewables target is an ambitious goal … by 2020, on the basis of existing policies, renewables would contribute around 5% of the UK’s consumption … we will bring forward the appropriate measures, beyond those set out in this White Paper, to make our contribution to meeting these targets.” “The 20% renewables target is an ambitious goal … by 2020, on the basis of existing policies, renewables would contribute around 5% of the UK’s consumption … we will bring forward the appropriate measures, beyond those set out in this White Paper, to make our contribution to meeting these targets.”

12 ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007 12 Changing the paradigm – 2020 scenarios

13 ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007 13 First: Cut energy consumption Energy conservation measures More efficient energy usage >Regulate against inefficient products >Regulate against parasitic loads More efficient energy generation >Limit generating stations’ waste energy UK consumption in 2020 same as now as a rough working assumption

14 ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007 14 Routemap to 2020 Existing plans

15 ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007 15 Existing policies, measures and assumptions Merchant power RO 1 achieves ~15% of electricity >Banding achieves diversity >Doesn’t harm onshore wind (not ‘net neutral’) Planning & grid restrictions overcome >All energy planning to IPC 2 >“Connect & manage” grid access >Beauly-Denny transmission upgrade 1Renewable (electricity) Obligation 2Infrastructure Planning Commission

16 ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007 16 Existing policies, measures and assumptions Transport fuels RTFO 3 introduced and effective >Buy-out price that ensures quotas are met >Sustainability reporting is appropriate >UK market is as attractive as others Bio-fuel duty rebates remain in interim 3 Renewable Transport Fuels Obligation

17 ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007 17 Existing policies, measures and assumptions Onsite energy Zero carbon new homes from 2016 >Building regs: CSH 4 level 6 from 2016 CERT 5 effective for ‘micro-renewables’ >Appropriate multipliers for renewables Positive planning >Extend ‘Merton Rule’ 6 nationwide Encourage renewables in existing houses >Energy certificates in home info packs 4Code for Sustainable Homes – Level 6 is ‘zero carbon’ 5Carbon Emission Reduction Target (formerly EEC) 6Larger developments require [10%] renewable energy

18 ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007 18 Routemap to 2020 New measures needed

19 ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007 19 Policies, measures and proposals Enhanced plans – merchant power Increased RO 1 objective ~22% in 2020 >Set 25% quota and increase headroom >Retain buyout link to retail price index >Offshore super-grid? Tidal lagoons, barrages and new large hydro? Incentives for large scale CHP 7 >Large thermal generators must use heat >Renewable Heat (or Gas?) Obligation Measures to deliver biomass strategy 1.Renewable (electricity) Obligation 7Combined heat and power

20 ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007 20 Policies, measures and proposals Enhanced plans – transport fuels Higher RTFO 3 quotas – 13% (by volume) in 2020 >RTFO linked to sustainability measures Availability of high blend fuels >Pumps on every large forecourt >Fuel duty rebate within Alternative Fuels Framework Second generation bio-fuels Incentives for high blend and flex-fuel vehicles >Lower vehicle excise duty >Tax breaks for company cars >Congestion charge exemptions 3 Renewable Transport Fuels Obligation

21 ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007 21 Policies, measures and proposals Enhanced plans – onsite domestic Building regulations for new homes >CSH 4 level 4 from 2010, level 5 from 2013 Smart metering roll-out programme Retrofit programme for existing houses >100,000 rising to 1,000,000 per annum >Owner occupiers and private landlords: >Feed-in tariffs for electricity; similar for heat >Stamp duty breaks, council tax concessions >Financing measures, mortgages and loans >Social rented and fuel poor: >Through local authorities and housing associations 4Code for Sustainable Homes – Level 5 is ‘low carbon’

22 ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007 22 Policies, measures and proposals Enhanced plans – non-residential A new Code for Sustainable Buildings >Equivalent to CSH 4 – and in Building Regs Heat networks in new developments >Regulatory system for heat networks Positive planning >Progressively rising ‘Merton Rule’ 6 %s Renewables in agriculture >Anaerobic digestion on 000’s of farms 4Code for Sustainable Homes 6Larger developments require [10%] renewable energy

23 ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007 23 Routemap to 2020 Enhanced energy policy

24 ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007 24 A coherent policy package? 0 Introduction 1 Combined heat-and-power generation 2 Expansion of renewable energies in the power sector 3 CCS technologies 4 Smart metering 5 Clean power-station technologies 6 Introduction of modern energy management systems 7 Support programmes for climate protection and energy efficiency 8 Energy-efficient products 9 Provisions on the feed-in of biogas to natural gas grids 10 Energy Saving Ordinance 11 Operating costs of rental accommodation 12 Modernisation programme to reduce CO2 emissions from buildings 13 Energy-efficient modernisation of social infrastructure 14 Renewable Energies Heat Act 15 Programme for the energy-efficient modernisation of federal buildings 16 CO2 strategy for passenger cars 17 Expansion of the biofuels market 18 Reform of vehicle tax on CO2 basis 19 Energy labelling of passenger cars 20 Reinforcing the influence of the HGV toll 21 Aviation 22 Shipping 23 Reduction of emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases 24 Procurement of energy-efficient products and services 25 Energy research and innovation 26 Electric mobility 27 International projects on climate protection and energy efficiency 28 Reporting on energy and climate policy by German embassies and consulates 29 Transatlantic climate and technology initiative 0 Introduction 1 Combined heat-and-power generation 2 Expansion of renewable energies in the power sector 3 CCS technologies 4 Smart metering 5 Clean power-station technologies 6 Introduction of modern energy management systems 7 Support programmes for climate protection and energy efficiency 8 Energy-efficient products 9 Provisions on the feed-in of biogas to natural gas grids 10 Energy Saving Ordinance 11 Operating costs of rental accommodation 12 Modernisation programme to reduce CO2 emissions from buildings 13 Energy-efficient modernisation of social infrastructure 14 Renewable Energies Heat Act 15 Programme for the energy-efficient modernisation of federal buildings 16 CO2 strategy for passenger cars 17 Expansion of the biofuels market 18 Reform of vehicle tax on CO2 basis 19 Energy labelling of passenger cars 20 Reinforcing the influence of the HGV toll 21 Aviation 22 Shipping 23 Reduction of emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases 24 Procurement of energy-efficient products and services 25 Energy research and innovation 26 Electric mobility 27 International projects on climate protection and energy efficiency 28 Reporting on energy and climate policy by German embassies and consulates 29 Transatlantic climate and technology initiative

25 ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007 25 20% Renewables – in EU

26 ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007 26 20% Renewables – in UK Where it is

27 ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007 27 20% Renewables – in UK What it is

28 ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007 28 Renewables in total energy

29 ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007 29 Who pays? … How much? The consumer pays (indirectly) for: >Obligations>Feed-in tariffs >Building Regulations (land-owner pays?) >Energy prices will rise The taxpayer (via the Treasury) pays for: >Retrofit programme through local authorities >Fiscal incentives >Cost (a fraction of Stern’s 1% of GDP) from: >NFFO 7 surplus (and obligations buy-out funds?) >Auction of EU-ETS 8 carbon allowances 7The RO gets a surplus from Non-Fossil Fuel Order projects 8Emission allocations in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme polluter

30 ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007 30 Brave new world – renewable hotspots

31 ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007 31 Engineering impacts and opportunities Elemental conversion technologies New approaches in established technologies >Offshore wind >Tidal barrages and lagoons >Building-integrated PV and solar thermal Higher volumes and efficiencies >Heat pumps >Micro-hydro Emerging renewable technologies >Tidal stream energy >Wave energy conversion

32 ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007 32 Engineering impacts and opportunities Bio-energy conversion technologies New approaches in established technologies >Sustainable biofuels >Bio-methane for the gas grid Higher volumes and efficiencies >Biomass boilers and CHP >Anaerobic digestion Emerging renewable technologies >Second generation biofuels >Microbial energy

33 ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007 33 Engineering impacts and opportunities More decentralised energy system Heat networks Intelligent distribution systems Smart metering >Improved user interfaces >Real-time pricing Active load management >Non-traditional storage options

34 ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007 34 Engineering impacts and opportunities New energy integration options ‘On-site’ energy systems >Intelligent user interfaces >Small-scale CHP / fuel cells ‘In-store’ energy systems >Renewable cooling ‘On-farm’ energy systems Everyone is in the energy business

35 ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007 35 Some conclusions On renewables: Never call it ‘alternative energy’ On fossil fuels: The Stone Age didn’t end because they ran out of stones “There’s still time” On renewables: Never call it ‘alternative energy’ On fossil fuels: The Stone Age didn’t end because they ran out of stones “There’s still time”

36 ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007 36 Renewable Energy Yesterday’s alternative – tomorrow’s mainstream Philip Wolfe Renewable Energy Association www.r-e-a.net Philip Wolfe Renewable Energy Association www.r-e-a.net


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