1. NAFTA and the State of the Border U.S.-Mexico Chamber of Commerce Mid-America NAFTA’s Impact on Regional Growth, Trade and Prosperity ● November 7, 2013

2. 2012 Total Goods Trade, Exports, and Imports Top 15 U.S. Trading Partners (in billions of U.S. dollars) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, http://www.census.gov/foreign- trade/statistics/highlights/top/top1212yr.html#total and http://www.census.gov/foreign- trade/balance/c4621.htmlhttp://www.census.gov/foreign- trade/statistics/highlights/top/top1212yr.html#totalhttp://www.census.gov/foreign- trade/balance/c4621.html

3. U.S.-Canada Border Source: National Post 9/12/11

4. Chicago’s North American trade Source: Brookings Institute Report: Metros as Hubs of Advanced Industries and Integrated Goods Trade, http://www.brookings.edu/research/interactives/2013/metro-north-america http://www.brookings.edu/research/interactives/2013/metro-north-america

5. San Diego Optimism “…The theme of the conference – three nations, two borders, one economy – underscores the point that we need not surrender sovereignty or erase borders to deepen economic integration. A common NAFTA external tariff, regulatory harmonization, a continental energy strategy, greater labour mobility and enhanced public consciousness about our interdependence can all be accomplished without merging into one country.” —Konrad Yakabuski, “CETA’s nice. But NAFTA is essential.” The Globe and Mail, Oct. 28, 2013

6. “We have conflicting regulations, border security that’s become quite militarized. We’ve got a witch hunt for illegal aliens going on rather than having a dialogue about labor and mobility and how do we get jobs to people who need them. A single North American market has not been realized.” —Christopher Sands, Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute San Diego Pessimism

7. One FTA, Two Border Management Plans U.S.-Canada: Beyond the Border: A Shared Vision for Perimeter Security and Economic Competitiveness (February 4, 2011) Key areas: Addressing Threats Early; Trade Facilitation; Economic Growth, and Jobs; Integrated Cross-border Law Enforcement; Critical Infrastructure and Cybersecurity Mexico-U.S.: Declaration by The Government Of The United States Of America and The Government Of The United Mexican States Concerning Twenty-First Century Border Management (May 19, 2010) Key areas: Enhancing economic competitiveness by expediting lawful trade, while preventing the transit of illegal merchandise between their two countries, Facilitating lawful travel in a manner that also prevents the illegal movement of people between their two countries, Sharing information that enhances secure flows of goods and people, and Disrupting and dismantling transnational criminal organizations and punishing their members and supporters.

8. Overview: The State Of Trade, Competitiveness and Economic Well-being In The U.S.-Mexico Border Region Erik Lee and Christopher E. Wilson Well over a billion dollars’ worth of goods cross the border each day. Long and unpredictable wait times at the border ports of entry are costing the United States and Mexican economies many billions of dollars each year. Improving trusted traveler programs could increase border efficiency with minimal investments in infrastructure and staffing.

9. Total U.S.-Mexico Trade, 1993-2012 Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2012 services numbers are preliminary. http://www.census.gov/foreign- trade/statistics/country/ and http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_ita.cfmhttp://www.census.gov/foreign- trade/statistics/country/http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_ita.cfm (in millions of U.S. dollars, includes goods and services) *Bilateral goods and services trade reached an estimated $536 billion in 2012, a new record.

10. CaliforniaArizonaNew MexicoTexas San YsidroLukevilleAntelope WellsPaso Del NorteJuarez-Lincoln Otay Mesa Psgr.DouglasColumbusStanton StreetFalcon Dam Otay Mesa Comm.NacoSanta TeresaBridge of the Amer.Roma TecateSan LuisYsletaRio Grande City Calexico WestSan Luis IIFabens*Los Ebanos* Calexico EastSasabeFort HancockAnzalduas AndradeNogales - MariposaPresidioHidalgo Nogales - DeConciniAmistad DamPharr Nogales - Morely GateDel RioDonna Eagle PassProgreso Eagles Pass IILos Indios Laredo-Columbia S.Brownsville - B&M* Laredo-World TradeBrownsville - Gateway Laredo - Convent Ave.Brownsville - Veterans Entry points: 7Entry points: 9Entry points: 3Entry points: 28 Passenger lanes: 63Passenger lanes: 39Passenger lanes: 5Passenger lanes: 144 Commercial lanes: 16Commercial lanes: 14Commercial lanes: 2Commercial lanes: 61 Pedestrian lanes: 37Pedestrian lanes: 14Pedestrian lanes:Pedestrian lanes: 54 Sources: Texas Transportation Institute, Border-Wide Assessment of Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) Technology—Current and Future Concepts. Final Report, July 2012 and U.S. Customs and Border Protection website. U.S. Land Ports of Entry with Mexico

11. The Costs of Congestion

12. Border Congestion Could Get Worse

13. Investment at the POEs v. investment between the POEs

14. Opportunity: Trusted Traveler Programs

15. 21CB: U.S. Interagency Structure

16. 21CB: Mexican Interagency Structure

17. Mexico’s Border Security: High Variability from West to East

18. Conclusions Much accomplished, much left to do 1990s: Skyrocketing trade 2000s: Security trumps trade 2010s: Concerns over physical and economic security Great potential with trusted traveler programs, inter- regional dialogue and advocacy, and public-private partnerships Processes to watch: Immigration reform, High Level Economic Dialogue, expanded NADBank role in border infrastructure

19. Thank you. Let’s keep talking. Erik Lee Executive Director North American Research Partnership Tel. 858.449.3798 erik@naresearchpartnership.org naresearchpartnership.org erik@naresearchpartnership.org