Presentation on theme: "The Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability"— Presentation transcript:
1The Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability 在中南海（与全世界）三种战争， 法律战争 China’s Legal Warfare in the South China Sea (and worldwide) 在中南海（與全世界）三種戰爭， 法律戰爭美国鹦鹉螺研究所The Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability美國鸚鵡螺研究所
2Main PointsChina’s actions in the South China Sea (and anywhere law is weak or non existent) have a coherence, context and unfold generally according to design.Legal WARFARE is warfare; it is not new, but the specific implementation guidelines are new.China’s Three Warfares of Psychological, Media and Legal warfare are complementary, simultaneous and asymmetric means of achieving political effects sans kinetic actions.China’s application of Three Warfares sidesteps most traditional Western military theory.Three Warfares are always “on”; setpre-conditions for kinetic warfare, enhance conditions during kinetic warfare and gain maximum effect post-conflict should deterrence fail.The most important battlespace is the mind of others.Three Warfares are a tacit recognition that nuclear weapons are essentially unusable.NOTE: The views expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Nautilus Institute. Nautilus seeks a diversity of views and opinions on significant topics in order to identify common ground.
3Why is this important?Know the enemy and know yourself, in a hundred battles no fear of losing; don’t know the enemy but know yourself, you will win one battle (half the battles) and lose one battle(half the battles); don’t know yourself and you will lose every battle.知彼知己，百戰不殆；不知彼而知己，一勝一負；不知彼，不知己，每戰必敗(therefore) winning 100 of 100 battles, this is not supreme skill; without battling and capturing, this is supreme skill.是故百戰百勝，非善之善者也；不戰而屈人之兵，善之善者也。
5Sources of China’s Strategic culture Confucianist & Legalist: Sovereignty is absolute. If there is a peer, there is no sovereignty.Deng Xiaoping’s 24 character formula for China’s involvement with the worldcharacter formula for civil-military relationsCommunist Party, Central Committee and the Central Military Commission approve new Political Work Regulations signifying unanimous approval from all three levers of power: Party, State and MilitaryRevised guidelines for Political Work2013 – China’s National Security Council established. Primarily domestic-focused. For China, South China Sea is a domestic issue.2014 – China’s National Security Council announces it held its inaugural meeting.
6What are the Three WARFARES? Overview China’s Three Warfares 三种战争 or shortened to 三战 san zhan are complementary, asymmetric, concurrent campaigns to win without fighting.Approval in 2003 by China’s Communist Party, Central Committee and the Central Military Commission indicates support from Party, Government and Military – three main levers of power.Specific details in Chapter 2, Section 18 of Chinese People’s Liberation Army Political Work Regulations.Psychological Warfare 心里战争 xinli zhanzhengMedia Warfare 舆论战争 yulun zhanzheng NOTE: more correctly translated as public opinion warfareLegal Warfare 法律战争 falv zhanzheng
7What are the Three WARFARES? Psychological Warfare 心里战争 Psychological Warfare 心里战争 xinli zhanzheng “seeks to undermine an enemy’s ability to conduct combat operations through operations aimed at deterring, shocking, and demoralizing enemy military personnel and supporting civilian populations.” DOD definitionTools: Express displeasure, assert hegemony, convey threats, reward Beijing orthodoxyMethods: Economic boycotts (RP bananas), applying diplomatic pressure, harassing fishing vessels, building oil rigs, selling oil exploration blocsActors: State Owned Enterprises (e.g. CNOOC), Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Research institutions
8What are the Three WARFARES? Media Warfare舆论战争 Media Warfare 舆论战争 yulun zhanzheng “is aimed at influencing domestic and international public opinion to build support for China’s military actions and dissuade an adversary from pursuing actions contrary to China’s interests.” DOD DefinitionTools: films, television, books, the internet, Chinese news outlets abroadMethods: Allow semblance of Chinese debate, while using those voices as reasons to avoid compromise. Present Chinese case abroad, prevent outside views from coming in.Actors: CCTV, Xinhua, social media, overseas Chinese,
9What are the Three WARFARES? Legal Warfare法律战争 1 of 4 Legal Warfare 法律战争 xinli zhanzheng “uses international and domestic law to claim the legal high ground or assert Chinese interests. Can be used to thwart an opponent’s operational freedom & shape the operational space. Also used to build international support and manage political repercussions of China’s military actions. DOD Definition
10What are the Three WARFARES? Legal Warfare法律战争 2 of 4 Tools:Existing international law such as UNCLOSDomestic lawsInternationally accepted conventions e.g creating an ADIZ ( Air Defense Identification Zone),CartographyAccess to Chinese officials, businesses and scholars
11What are the Three WARFARES? Legal Warfare法律战争 3 of 4 Methods:Interpret law selectivelyPass domestic law, but require international acceptance (e.g. giving Sansha city administrative power over South China Sea or making foreign air and sea vessels comply with ADIZ)Seek international legislationAttempt to handle matters bi-laterally instead of multi-laterallyUse law enforcement authorities equipped with military equipment instead of military forces.
12What are the Three WARFARES? Legal Warfare法律战争 4 of 5 Actors: National, Provincial, Municipal levels, businesses, academics, international societies. Figure on next page shows selected official actors.Significant possibilities for individual / low-level activity that is not coordinated at top-level, but fits within perceived guidelinesAccording to the director of the Military Lawyers Association Professional Committee 军事专业委员会, there are 200,000 Chinese lawyers involved in military, national defense and diplomacy matters.
13What are the Three WARFARES? Legal Warfare法律战争 5 of 5
14How Three Warfare influences SCS dispute resolution mechanisms (China’s point of view 1 of 2) Counter US naval and air presence by harassing any assets entering the region. Perception US more worried about possible incident than China.Degrade support for US by emphasizing that US has not ratified UNCLOS (even though China has and still doesn’t abide by it)Counter US presence and US logistics by creating an unfavorable host country public opinion and driving wedges in alliance relationships.Make alliance management more difficult by sowing doubt that US is a reliable ally.
15How Three Warfare influences SCS dispute resolution mechanisms (China’s point of view 2 of 2) Cultivate local relationships which depend on Chinese businesses and provide Chinese access / leverage.
16Cartographic Lawfare I Nine dashed line as part of map
17Cartographic Lawfare II Nine dashed line as an inset
18Recommendations (for the US) Strengthen alliance management.Strengthen civil societies and facilitate stronger networks among the civil societies in order to prevent wedges.Pass Free Trade Agreements with all allies and grant preferential trade to US friendsEnforce fair trade practices with China – possibly even in a tit-for-tat fashion.Develop and promulgate a comprehensive, coherent non-military plan which Air Sea Battle should support.Aggressively conduct Freedom of Navigation exercises (air and maritime), - even against friendly countries – to demonstrate commitment to rule of law.Encourage external civil societies to produce more Chinese-language content to inform / temper debates in Chinese social media.Deny visas for selected Chinese media until China improves media freedom and allows outside media the same kinds of access Chinese media enjoys in the West.Increase US involvement and support for regional fora – mini-coalitions dedicated to strengthening normative behavior.Increase public diplomacy to educate the public on the Three Warfares and their applicability to Sovereignty, Space, Air, Maritime, Internet, Economic, Diplomatic and Academic spheres – there is a multi-spectral challenge to the established world order
19Recommended in depth readings Stefan Halper. “China: The Three Warfares.” Report for Director, Office of Net Assessment. May 2013 (http://cryptome.org/2014/06/prc-three-wars.pdf)Dean Cheng. “Winning without fighting: The Chinese Psychological Warfare Challenge.” The Heritage Foundation. 12 July （ )Timothy Walton. “China’s Three Warfares” Delex Special Report January (http://www.delex.com/data/files/Three%20Warfares.pdf)DOD Reports on China’s Military Power,
20Recommended in depth Chinese readings Chen Hongzhong. “Legal War: An alternative perspective for great military powers.” China Legal Publishing house. 1 April 2014 (陈洪忠. “法律战争：大国军事的另类视角” 中国法制出版社 (http://book.kongfz.com/26565/ /)Li Xiaofeng, Cong Wensheng. “Military Lecture Series: Lectures on Legal warfare” PLA Publishing House, September 李晓峰，丛文胜. “军事大讲堂系列丛书：法律战讲座”解放军出版社. 9月 2006。 （Cong Wensheng, Wang Xinjian, Zhong Qi. “100 Cases of Legal Warfare: Classic case analysis” People’s Liberation Army Publishing House 丛文胜 、 王新建 、 钟琦. “法律战100例：经典案例评析” 解放军出版社 (http://ourjnu.com/zhlib/141855)
21Parting ThoughtsBeing unconquerable resides in you, being conquerable resides with the enemy 不可胜在己，可胜在敌 bu kesheng zai ji, kesheng zai diWhether in a Westphalian, anarchic or Confucian concept of international relations, it is up to every country to defend its own interests.
22The Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability 谢谢 / Thank You / 謝謝美国鹦鹉螺研究所The Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability美國鸚鵡螺研究所