Presentation on theme: "Week 6: Impacts on Great Power Politics Lecture 15: The Chinese Response to 911 10 th March 2003 (Monday)"— Presentation transcript:
Week 6: Impacts on Great Power Politics Lecture 15: The Chinese Response to 911 10 th March 2003 (Monday)
Announcements on Guest Speakers Israel Consul General Eli Avidar The Israeli-Palestinian Issue Lecture 19: 19 th March 2003 (Wednesday) Welcome to sign up for lunch afterwards Indian Consul Goel The “ Mini Cold War ” in the Subcontinent Lecture 25: 31 st March 2003 (Monday) Welcome to sign up for lunch afterwards
Structure of Lecture 15: Introduction to “ Great Power Politics ” China in the Pre-911 World Order: The Recent Sino-American Relations Immediate Chinese Response at 911: The Contradictory Response between the Chinese Government and the Chinese Society Secondary Chinese Response after 911: Communist China ’ s Strategy Conclusion: What if Mao or Deng were alive today …
Concept of “ Composite National Capability ” A Mathematical Formula of: Political Power (international influence) Military Power (army, science) Economic Power (market, labor, resources) Potential Power (land, population) Cultural Power (sports, music, literature, Nobel Prize, crime rate … ) China = 7?! Perceptive Powers China = 2?!
“ Great Power ” Refresh on the “ 1-5 ” Status Quo The Post-Cold War Order: Multi-polarity? The Big One: USA The Next Five: Russia China Britain European Union (France- Germany Axis) Japan
Great Power Relationships 1. Open Confrontation WWII: Germany Vs Britain 2. Balance of Power Cold War: USA Vs USSR 3. Bandwagon Effect Post-Cold War: USA > Britain
PART II China and USA in the Pre-911 World Order
Rise of Anti-Americanism “ China Can Say No ” ? American as the Future Chinese Enemy Premier Zhu Rongji: “ Can ’ t be too good, can ’ t be too bad ”… America as Idol in the Past
Belgrade Embassy Bombing (1999) NATO intervention in the Kosovo Civil War Chinese Embassy in Belgrade bombed “ accidentally ” by the NATO army Anti-American Demonstrations in Beijing Destruction of the Beijing American Embassy
China and USA Since George W Bush (2000) Election of President George W Bush Vs Al Gore The “ Mock Election ” in American Embassy in Beijing US Spy Plane Crushing Incident (2001) Wang Wei: the “ Real Martyr ” The “ New Cold War ” of George W Bush
PART III Immediate Chinese Response at 911: The Bipolarity
The American Invitation Jiang-Bush Phone Summit (14 th Sept 2001) Anti-Terror Coalition – Band C “ Cooperation ” No Opposition Spiritual Support Share of Intelligence Service Green Light to Pakistan Sino-Pakistani Alliance Secret Visit of General Pervez Musharraf in Beijing
Official Response “ The attacks have not only brought about a disaster to the American people, but also a challenge to the sincere desire for peace of the world people. The Chinese people, like the Americans, strongly condemn the appalling terrorist attacks. “ China is ready to strengthen dialogue and cooperation with the United States and the international community in the joint efforts in combating all sorts of terrorist violence. ” – President Jiang Zemin (Sept 14 2001)
Social Uproar & Excitement People Daily ’ s “ Strong Country Forum ” “ Well Done! ” Romanticization of Osama Bin Laden The Che Guevera T-shirt The Unconventional TV Program King Kong The Reporters Clapping Incident
The Humanitarian Argument The “ Middle Line ” against Pro- or Anti- Americanism “ Tonight, We are Americans ” by 491 Liberal Scholars Fight back against the Anti-Americanists on Websites Humanitarianism: How big is its market? The Dangerous Alienation between Government and the Masses
PART IV Communist China ’ s Strategy after 911: Taking Advantage of 911
Anti-Terrorism in China East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) Xinjiang Muslims (Uighurs): Separatism “ Republic of East Turkestan ” (1944-1946) Comparison with the Independence Movements of Taiwan and Tibet “ Religious Terrorism ” Falun Gong???
Anti-Terrorist Attempts of China Before 911 Shanghai Cooperation Organization 1996 found by China Enlarged membership at April 2001: China, Russia, the Central Asian Republics Common Enemy: Terrorism by Radical Muslims CICA (Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia) 2001 1 st meeting, organized by Kazakhstan Common Enemy: Terrorism of Radical Muslims
Convergence of Anti-Terrorisms East Turkestan became an American Enemy, unconsciously http://www.uygur.org/ America Can Provide: Moral backing of the Chinese Anti- terrorist methods, with force The Influence over Turkey to Restraint from Supporting the East Turkestan Movement A List of “ Foreign Terrorist Organizations ” by US Office of Counterterrorism (Aug 2002 )
Shift of American Attention China after 911: From a Potential “ Rogue State ” to an American Ally Priority: not to provoke America against China again No veto against America ’ s Iraqi Campaign
China and the Theories of Limiting Sovereignty Stage 1: Imperialism (before WWII) Sovereignty Limited By: the Level of Civilization China ’ s Worry: Not Yet Modernized; Might be Colonized by Imperial Powers (e.g. Britain, France) Stage 2: Cold War (1945-1991) Sovereignty Limited By: Ideology China ’ s Worry: Ideological Conflict with the Leader of the Communist Bloc; Might be Subverted by the USSR
China and the Theories of Limiting Sovereignty (II) Stage 3: Post-Cold War (1991-2001) Sovereignty Limited By: “ Human Rights ” China ’ s Worry: its Human Rights Record to be Criticized; Might be Contained by the USA Stage 4: Post-911 (2001- ) Sovereignty Limited By: “ Anti- terrorism ” (the Bush Doctrine) China – No Worries at All!
Assigned Readings Main Text: Tina Chen and David Churcill: “ Neoliberal Civilization, the War on Terrorism, and the Case of China. ” Chinese Response to 911. Ed. Simon Shen. Hong Kong: Hong Kong University Press, (exp.) late 2003.
Supplementary Readings Xinhua Agency: “ Sept11 Attacks Render Japan to Expand Militarily. ” People ’ s Daily Forum. 8th Sept 2002. http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200209/08/eng20020908_1 02842.shtml http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200209/08/eng20020908_1 02842.shtml A Sampling of Asian Comment on the 9/11 Attacks and Their Aftermath (UCLA) http://international.ucla.edu/asia/article.asp?parentid=2274
PART V: Conclusion – What if Mao or Deng were Alive Today …
Maoism at its Peak US Imperialism are “ Paper Tigers ” Worldwide Revolution against American Imperialism Supported Anti-Imperialist Campaigns in North Korea, North Vietnam, Indonesia, Cuba, Nepal, Congo, Tanzania, Zambia … Beijing as the Capital of Worldwide Revolution Ping-pong Diplomacy (1971) USA as China ’ s “ good old friend ”
Deng Xiaoping Thought on Diplomacy after Tiananmen (1989) 24-word Chinese motto: “ lengjing guancha, shouzhu shendi, chenzhuo yingfu, taoguang yanghui, shinyu shouzhuo, juebu dangtou ” ( 冷靜觀察， 守 住 陣腳，沈著應付，韜光養晦，善於守拙，絕不當 頭 ) Calmly observe, stabilize the basis, coolly respond, conceal the capacities, use to be inferior, never take initiatives
Deng Xiaoping Theory in the 911 Incident Stabilize the Basis: Against Local Terrorism in Xinjiang Conceal the Capabilities: Hide all its Potentials to Oppose against American Expansion after 911 Never Take the Lead: France and Germany took the lead against the American Invasion against Iraq
Modification of Dengism by Jiang Zemin lengjing guancha, shenzhuoyingdui, bawojiyu, yinshilidao ( 冷靜觀察，沉著應對，把握机遇，因 勢利導 ) Calmly observe, stabilize the basis Take the opportunity, make use of the situation to achieve one ’ s goal Chinese Diplomacy: Realistic, No More Romance
Sino-American Honeymoon? The 911 Interlude to China Entry into WTO APEC meeting at Shanghai 4 Jiang-Bush Summits …
Possible Causes of the Chinese U-turn in the Future? American U-turn from Multilateralism to Unilateralism Axis of Evil (Jan 2002): Why North Korea? The Iraqi Crisis: Bypass of United Nations American Allies in Asia after 911: Encirclement of China? South Korea, Japan, Central Asian Republics, India, Philippines … Increased Presence in Central Asia and Pakistan Stronger Internal Pressure after the Leadership Change