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The Future Of Search (sort of) Danny Sullivan Editor-In-Chief Search Engine Land

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Presentation on theme: "The Future Of Search (sort of) Danny Sullivan Editor-In-Chief Search Engine Land"— Presentation transcript:

1 The Future Of Search (sort of) Danny Sullivan Editor-In-Chief Search Engine Land

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5 The Future? It’s Now!  Hard to predict since two key things I expected to happen HAVE happened  Personalized results…  Blended results  Internet Librarian, November 2001…

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7 Read My Mind (Nov. 2001)  Sept. 11 dramatically illustrates the main search challenge – the need to somehow automatically hit the correct dataset  Images for search on “pictures of spain”  MP3 files for search on “madonna”  Movie info for search on Harry Potter this month

8 Invisible Tabs (Dec. 2003)  Answer to everything is not a web page  Search engines will begin to hit specialty databases in the right occasion, pushing the right tab behind the scenes  Pictures, Buying, News Headlines

9 Federated Search Hits The Web  Or is it?  Meta search  Universal Search  3D / Morph  Answers  Shortcuts  “Blended results” or “Blended search” more generic and clearer…

10 Google Universal Search: May 07  Automatically queries:  Books, images, news, video, local + web  More sources added in the future  Relevancy of each vertical “silo” assessed and measured against others, Google says  More  Let’s see…

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14 Ask 3D & “Morph:” June 07  3 “pane” design  3 rd pane uses “Morph” algorithm to select relevant verticals  Blogs, news, news images, video, Wikipedia, dictionary, more…  More  Let’s see…

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17 Microsoft Live: Sept. 07  Pushing Microsoft Answers  Health, Shopping, Entertainment/Celebrities, Local  Smart Motion Video Previews  More  Let’s see…

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19 Yahoo: Oct. 07  Pushing Yahoo Shortcuts  Events, music, movies, travel, sports, health, shopping, businesses, and restaurants  More  Let’s see…

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21 Blended Overview  Verticals becoming more prominent  Metaphor / presentation still being worked out  Ask 3D didn’t generate boost; toolbar download did, and now iWon ramp-up  Live saw gains through “Search Club”  More on both:  Still, exciting time!

22 Will Crawlers Survive? (Nov. 2002)  Link analysis saved them from drowning in spam  Now link manipulation has become issue  Bloggers: Let’s “googlebomb” to help sites we like  Site owners: Let’s create artificial link networks  Site owners: Let’s just get links Google “likes”  SearchKing (and others): We got good links for sale!

23 What’s The Solution (Nov. 2002)  They’ll come up with new link analysis abilities  I still believe personalization of results will come  Specialty search may finally now recovered from the dotcom crash…  OriginSearch.com charging per day  Scirus.com still going strong  Crawlers may take new lead; Google revamped news search and shopping search expected  And help others with targeted paid listings

24 Personalized & Social Search  Focus on a particular topic, such as news  Reshaping results based on…  What you personally do or visit  What others you know do or visit  What people in aggregate do or visit

25 Google Personalized Search Results are reordered based on what’s deemed to be your personal preferences. Pages move up, down, in or out of top 10

26 Personalization Influencers  Google Personalized Home Page content  Google Bookmarks  Search History (Clicks)  Web History (Visits)…

27 Search & Web History

28 Social Search  Eurekster experimented with friend clicks reshaping results in 2004  Yahoo My Web promised to let us tag and use a network to reshape results…

29 Yahoo My Web

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31 My Web & Old Search Features

32 Social Search Reality  Neither really has succeeded  The Promise & Reality Of Mixing The Social Graph With Search Engines   Eurekster says “swickis” much better  Yahoo dropped many features quietly  But what about Facebook?

33 Facebook & Search  Social graph (ugh) / social network data is potentially useful  Watch what others are searching on  Monitor clicks in a more “trusted” environment  Reshape results based on what you friends seem to like  But who are your friends…

34 Future Facebook?

35 Facebook & Search  Do you have to filter to “true” friends?  Do you then still need to consider what you’ll share?  Does Facebook instead work on aggregate level?  And what’s the underlying platform? They’ll likely remain dependent on someone else…

36 Facebook & Search  Go vertical? People search?  Plenty in the space  search.php  Or events search  Upcoming rival  Others?  Or discovery…

37 Search Versus Discovery  Search is an on-demand, have particular need to fulfill activity  Discovery is related but less specific in what you want  StumbleUpon, Digg  iGoogle related magic tabs

38 What Else?  Natural Language Search!  Sigh  Powerset not out  Hakia.com’s clustering interesting

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40 What Else?  Human refinement!  Mahalo.com sometimes feels cluttered but nice to see the attempt  Search Wikia remains to be seen 

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42 Overall  Verticals to continue growing  Personalized should survive privacy issues and be helpful  Perhaps social will indeed play role  Lots of room to grow  Report: 7 Out Of 10 Americans Experience 'Search Engine Fatigue’

43 Overall  72% experience “search engine fatigue” (either “always,” “usually,” or “sometimes”) when researching  65% percent say they’ve spent two or more hours in a single sitting searching  1000 adults by Kelton Reseach for Autobytel 

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45  Search Engine Land (http://searchengineland.com)  Stories and news from me and others  SearchCap (http://searchengineland.com/searchcap.php)  Daily recap of search news from SEL & across the web  Daily SearchCast (http://dailysearchcast.com)  Podcast where I recap the day’s search news  Sphinn (http://sphinn.com)  Social site for search marketers: share news stories, talk in forums, network and view upcoming events


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