Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Freedom20Financial TSE:PSD. 242-0-0 172-0-0 0-153-153 255-255-204 90-2-2 210-0-0 Leading player in niche industry Share buybacks Virtually zero incremental.

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Freedom20Financial TSE:PSD. 242-0-0 172-0-0 0-153-153 255-255-204 90-2-2 210-0-0 Leading player in niche industry Share buybacks Virtually zero incremental."— Presentation transcript:

1 Freedom20Financial TSE:PSD

2 Leading player in niche industry Share buybacks Virtually zero incremental cost No substitute for data Super high margins 2% dividend with shitload of FCF No net income because of depreciation (wiped out of everybody’s screens prob) Talk about story on how you found this stock perhaps 20 second slide Executive Summary Target Price Animation Little textboxes outlining characteristics… FCF Yield 80-85% EBITDA Margin Large Player in niche industry Strong and Stable Dividend Unique Accounting Competitive Advantage FCF Yield > 15% 80-85% EBITDA Margin Large Player in niche industry Unique Accounting- overstated CAPEX Competitive Advantages Strong and Stable Dividend PSD is a true defensive play on natural gas pricing and E&P activity in Alberta with the capability of generating strong free cash flow for shareholders. Recommendation: BUY Upside of 17% Strong FCF Generation Attractive Valuation Wide Economic Moat Emphasis on Shareholder Value Current $3.77 Target $4.31

3 Business model: 2D v 3D revenue Market share Clients Business Description Business Model Seismic data is a necessity for each E&P project Data library is re-licensed perpetually to Oil & Gas companies PSD assumes zero drilling risk Vintage data in library (> 10 years) can be re-processed and re-licensed Competitive Advantages Revenue Sources 1% of development cost; average well cost of $13mm Land sales Avg. return of surveys: 161% Perpetual Licensing M&A Generated Transfer Fees Required level of drilling activity must be met in order to retain the drilling license Land reverts back to the Crown every 3-5 years to be re-licensed to other drilling companies Seismic data is non-transferable and must be repurchased from PSD M&A activity (also joint ventures) result in transfer fees paid to PSD to re-license the data (at approx. 50% of the original sale price of the license) and can be quite substantial Ex. Encana paid PSD a $5-10mm fee (2011) Data is exclusive to geography, discourages players from surveying land for which existing data exists Pricing power  E&P company cannot shop around for data High quality data is extremely expensive; costs range up to $50k per km 2 of 3D data Reputation of data solicits underwriting of 70 – 75% of the CAPEX for new surveys by clients Pulse has an existing controlling position in Western Canada with a data library costing $3.5bn to recreate Barriers to entry create competitive advantage in most attractive plays to drill for natural gas Pulse Seismic is a market leader in the acquisition, marketing and licensing of seismic data to the Western Canadian energy sector PSD owns a proprietary library of high-quality 2D and 3D data covering the rich sedimentary basin and is essential to oil and gas drilling Strong Market Share Condense high barriers to entry and expand the revenue model to two more boxes: data library and participation surveys, perhaps take revenue breakdown out of this slide altogether Market share Pricing power in most attractive plays for gas Oligopoly sustained through high barriers to entry: expensive to produce data, hence only one data provider per geographic location Data LibraryParticipation Surveys High Margins, Low Cost Data library is relicensed perpetually at zero incremental cost 70% survey cost underwriting 100% of data remains proprietary Mineral Rights Turnover ~Zero Incremental Cost 2D3D

4 Company Summary Revenue Breakdown LTM FinancialsHistorical Performance Sources: Capital IQ, Corporate Presentation Committed Leadership Capital Structure CEO Neal Coleman and CFO Pamela Wicks has combined 24 years with PSD New Data 3D Data : 28,300 km 2 2D Data: 340,000 km Looking to change incentive plan to minimum threshold of return on invested capital in data library for 2013 compensation Experience Focused on Shareholders Chairman Robert Robotti owns 2% of shares outstanding, and also indirectly through a 14.8% stake held by Ravenswood Management where he is a principal Incentive plan is based upon shareholder free cash flow per share Proven Track Record Acquisition of Divestco in 2010 Immediately accretive to earnings and doubled its library Data Library Stoney report has breakdown 2D v 3D Alberta and BC? $0.92

5 Natural Gas Drilling (# of wells) Land SalesLNG Terminals Price is currently linked to natural gas drilling, E n P programs from large oil players, Transportation bottlenecks are set to be cleared with LNG terminals set up in Alberta, prices were depressed because of US shale gas supply 2013 E n P activity lowest in years, bound to bounce back etc. etc. Current Environment Low Interest Rate spurs activity for smaller players Low interest rate and gas prices  junior and inter. More financing to acquire and explore  Western Canada Outlook Transportation bottlenecks are set to be cleared with LNG terminals set up in Alberta, prices were depressed because of US shale gas supply M n A has picked up this year due to better prices and more confidence Natural Gas Prices highest since 2010 “…we sold a lot of 2D in 2007…I believe one of the main reasons for that was we had higher commodity prices, we had higher gas prices that led to the financing of a lot more junior companies.” - Neal Coleman, 2013 Q3 Earnings Call Highest price since..due to Insert graph of Natural gas price bbg LNG projects in Kitimat & Prince Rupert seeks to revive drilling and clear up glut of supply. Oil & Gas PlayMajor Players Montney Play Duvernay Play Long-term, capital intensive Focus of WCSB activity LNG Terminals Areas of major and long term CAPEX focus Reviving Exports BMO Jr. Gas Index CDN Interest Rate

6 Catalysts LNG Terminals in ConstructionHorizontal Well with Multi-Stage Frac TechnologyBetter-than-expected Resource Estimates Incentivizes Future DrillingNeed for More 3D Data Chevron acquired additional 68,000 acres in the Duvernay in August 2013: “…we have been encouraged by the reservoir data and production performance from our exploration drilling program on our Kaybob Duvernay leases. We are pleased to add to our acreage in this play as we advance our program…” - Jeff Lehmann, Chevron Canada President Increasing Presence from Large Players

7 Precedent Transactions Relative Valuation Considerations Replacement Value Cost to recreate PSD’s library ~$3bnLimited universe for seismic transactions EBITDA Margins - Peers Lack of comparable operations within industry Avg. 40% Avg. 4.7x EV/EBITDA Multiple - PeersRevenue Segments TGS Nopec: Diversified Dawson: Diversified Pulse Seismic: Pure Play

8 DCF InputsCAPEX Rationale EBITDA FocusExplain Unpredictability of Revenue E&P Cycle DCF Valuation WACC DCF InputsSensitivity Analysis (Base) Graph is fine, want three bars for for bear, base, bull cases projecting revenue; little boxes on top of different years to describe which assumptions we made 2% size premium added to WACC Revenue Growth per Scenario Bear Case: No exceptional data sale assumed Base Case: Assumed a large data sale of $20 million in 2016 Bull Case: Assumed extraordinary M&A activity and data sale of $20 million in 2015 and 2017 Bear Base Bull End of run-up

9 Valuation Summary

10 Why isnt it priced in? doubled in 3 years Bigger, Faster, Stronger Perfect buying opportunity E&P Companies Takeover potential Continuing Land Transfers Risks July 2005: Seitel offers $119.9mm ($2.60/share) for PSD December 2006: Private Equity firm offers ~$160mm ($3.15/share) to take PSD private 2007: Seitel attempts to buy PSD for ~180mm or ($3.10/share)  Important to note that this was all before Divestco acquisition which ~doubled its data library for 75mm  13,500 of 3D and 82,000 of 2D  Average premium at time of takeovers were ~20%+  Record land sales last two years ~7bn  Mineral Rights in Alberta plays perfectly into PSD’s favour  81% of land is owned by the provincial government and 19% is owned by federal  Land is reverted to the Crown perpetually on a 3-5 year basis  New terminals in BC  New fracking techniques, long horizontal well lengths means larger surveying land needed  Page 9 of TD has a good graph Dashed box saying how it is the leading player in Alberta with Seitel and only will continue to grow, appendix will have list of small 100km buys they have had Per Q3 transcript, not looking to acquire small patches, looking to acquire a ton of data in one go if possible Historic Land Sales graph, highlight 2014 Price chart at takeover 2D Substitutes: Cheaper but sub-par to 3D

11 We reiterate a BUY rating with one-year target price of $XX  Strong FCF generation  Sustainable business model  Perfect Storm  Improving M & A environment  E & P activity also picking up Conclusion Reiterate BUY: Target $4.31 Sustainable Business Model Strong FCF Generation Improving Operating Environment No significant risks

12 Q & A Rebecca Yao 3A BAFM Derek Wan 3A BAFM

13 Upside of 23% Target $4.31 Initial Target Price PSD saw a run-up of 9% over the last week. Shares rose from $3.50 to as high as $3.83. Current $3.50 Recent Activity

14 Share Buybacks and Insider Buying Consistently max out 10% buyback a year, uses cash flow to buy back shares average price that they buy shares back has been around $3.36/share this year for ~2.2mm shares, average weighted price of buyback at $3.86/share in Q32013 Purchased back ~5mm shares during 2012 with an estimated average weighted price of $2.09/share Pays $0.08 dividend a year Despite poor Q4 results, Management has reiterated that it does not intend to cut the dividend Source: Capital IQ Consistently max out NCIB and returns FCF to shareholders  Neal Coleman and Pamela Wicks has bought additional shares since heading the company in 2012  Both have bought stock in the open market over the last year at an average price of ~3.20  Insiders currently own 6.01% of shares outstanding  Significant liquidity on the stock despite low market cap, as it has a 93% float Chart of insider buying 2012 Capital Allocation

15 Executive Compensation Sources: Bloomberg, Corporate Document Short-Term and Long-Term Incentive Plan encourages near term and year value creation Performance measured by FCF generated per share Paid 3.5% of FCF generated over base SFCF threshold, 2012  $0.21/share, incentive plan capped at $1.2mn Encourages buy backs and cash flow generation Emphasis on Delivering Value to Shareholders

16 Major Shareholders Sources: Bloomberg, Corporate Document Major Shareholders and Related Parties Total Shares Outstanding ~59.3mm Ravenswood Management Co., LLC General Partner Ravenswood Investment Co. (Private) Robotti & Co. (Private Firm) Parent Pulse Seismic Inc. Top Shareholder

17 FCF Generation Pulse Seismic is one of six Energy companies on the TSX to generate >10% FCF Yield last year Heavily discounted for the amount of FCF it generates Highest EBITDA margin %, yet trading at one of the lower EV/EBITDA multiples Historical FCF Yield

18 Natural Gas Prices Correlation INSERT Correlation GRAPH Isnt really any because when oil n gas companies reduce capex in times of low commodity prices, they buy off-the-shelf data rather than shoot participating Source: Capital IQ Little correlation to natural gas prices (R 2 = -0.34) Correlation may arise with 2D sales as junior players are sensitive to gas prices. PSD as a whole is not correlated because of the focus on 3D and intermediate to large clientele. Natural Gas PSD

19 We posted a record level of seismic data library amortization, a non-cash expense during the first 9 months of this year. $29 million of the $49 million library amortization expense, relates to the initial 50% amortization provision recorded upon completion of the D surveys. This high amortization expense often results in Pulse having low or no earnings. And in this case, for the 9 months ended September 30, we show a $16.3 million loss. Neal Coleman Q3 Earnings Call Amortization

20 Low Fixed Cost Base Source: Capital IQ, Company Documents Maintenance CAPEX Proxy 1.Minimal SG&A and virtually zero COGS 2.CAPEX funded 70-80% 3.Minimal maintenance 4.Capital allocation to growth "Virtually all capital expenditures are additive to our library, as we have minimal true "maintenance" capital expenditure requirements. However, we estimate that approximately $25.0 MM of net cash capital expenditures are required annually to offset declines…” – Seitel Inc. ( K) Seitel Inc CAPEX: $87.5mm Maintenance CAPEX: ~ 30% Pulse Seismic 2012 CAPEX*: $11.5mm Maintenance CAPEX: ~ 30% x 11.5mm = $3.5mm annually Minimal CAPEX required ($3.5M) – can sit on existing library * ”true” CAPEX calculated as Gross CAPEX – Participation Survey Revenue Longevity of 2D Library Distribution of Costs Draw graph for fixed cost over the years Another graph for the cost underwriting 516% return to date on 7 surveys shot in 2004 Repeat Revenues on Surveys Excess CAPEX = Growth from acquisition of data (i.e. Divestco)

21 Low Analyst Coverage Historical chart of Price targets, initiating coverage, shop, etc. Source: Capital IQ Investment Research Only smaller, boutique shops are currently covering PSD

22 Beta and WACC Does not reflect true risk of PSD compared to market No comparable index for PSD Source: Capital IQ, NYU Stern, Bloomberg Regressed 5Y Beta of 0.11 Industry WACC PSD’s pure play nature and small cap (~$210mm) suggests a premium on beta and WACC.

23 Comparables Source: Capital IQ PSD is the only pure play data library in Canada

24 DCF - Summary

25 DCF - Detailed

26 Montney Play Source: Capital IQ Forecasted increase activity in Montney through 2020 Horn River provides demand for seismic data

27 Duvernay Source: Capital IQ Three 3D surveys totaling over 1,180 sq. km completed in 2013 Well-positioned in the Duvernay

28 West Canada LNG Projects Prince Rupert LNG – BG Group Pacific Northwest LNG – Petronas, Progress Kitimat LNG – Apache Canada, Chevron Canada LNG Canada – Shell, PetroChina, Korea Gas Corp, Mitsubishi

29 Seismic data was first used in 1940s to explore the WCSB 1970s digital recording was starting to be used where it gave a much clearer picture to 2D 1980s and 1990s 3D was introduced; drastically improved quality again – adds depth to the picture, reduced each signal grid to 25m or less compared to 2D of 1km Technological advances in seismic 2D’s grid gathers less data points 3D is much clearer

30 Horizontal drilling – Up to 10,000 feet vertical and one mile horizontally – Costly but gives cost advantages More efficient and higher recovery rate (produces up to 20x more) Average oil supply cost, vertical: $64/barrel, horizontal $40/barrel in WCSB for 2012 Hydraulic Fracturing “Multistage Fracking” – Supplement to horizontal drilling – Breaks the rocks to unearth more of the hydrocarbon (mostly for shale gas) Technological advances in drilling

Download ppt "Freedom20Financial TSE:PSD. 242-0-0 172-0-0 0-153-153 255-255-204 90-2-2 210-0-0 Leading player in niche industry Share buybacks Virtually zero incremental."

Similar presentations

Ads by Google