1. NATO’S RESPONSE TO NEW SECURITY CHALLENGES Michael Rühle Head, Energy Security Section NATO Emerging Security Challenges Division ATHENA CONFERENCE Athens, 17 June 2014

2. THE HAZARDS OF PREDICTION “Persons who pretend to predict the future shall be considered disorderly and will be liable to a fine of $300 or three months in jail.” Old Criminal Code of New York

3. WHY PREDICTION IS NECESSARY “My interest is in the future because I am going to spend the rest of my life there.” Charles F. Kettering

4. MAJOR TRENDS (1) Decline in state sovereignty; power shift from states to international or non-state networks Proliferation of new technologies (e.g. bio- technology; cyber) to empower state and non-state actors

5. MAJOR TRENDS (2) New Nuclear Weapons States (real and “virtual”) Failing states as safe havens and training grounds for terrorist groups, pirates, drugs … Cyber attacks (from disruption to destruction)

6. MAJOR TRENDS (3) Competition for scarce natural resources (energy, rare earths) can spark territorial conflicts Climate Change can cause natural disasters and amplify regional conflicts

7. DILEMMAS OF COLLECTIVE ACTION New threats may not affect all countries in the same way and at the same time - different degrees of solidarity Some new threats are not predominantly military in nature Responding to new threats requires civilian and military means

8. POLITICAL FRAMEWORK (MANDATE) Strategic Concept (2010) Devotes considerable attention to emerging security challenges

9. BUREAUCRATIC CHANGES Emerging Security Challenges Division (2010): Cyber defence; Counter-terrorism; WMD-non- proliferation & CBRN defence; Energy security; Nuclear policy; Science for Peace and Security Programme Strategic Analysis Capability; Economic Security Assessment

10. POLICY DEVELOPMENT (1) Cyber Defence Policy & Action Plan Counterterrorism Political Guidelines Strategic Level Policy for WMD Non-Proliferation Summit Progress Reports on NATO’s Role in Energy Security

11. POLICY DEVELOPMENT (2) Better intelligence-sharing More analyses on current and future security risks (to stimulate Allied debate) Clearer direction for NATO’s education and training efforts on emerging challenges

12. POLICY DEVELOPMENT (3) Incorporation of emerging challenges into NATO exercises Closer links with other International Organisations, NGO’s, scientific community and private sector

13. INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL CHALLENGES Emerging challenges compete with “traditional” security issues Limited “buy in” by some Allies and NATO’s leadership NATO’s (military) toolbox limits its importance as an actor in meeting non-traditional challenges

14. THE WAY AHEAD Stronger reflection of emerging challenges in NATO’s training & education efforts as well as exercises More regular strategic-level discussions on emerging security challenges Enhanced “connectivity” of NATO with other players

15. “YOU CANNOT TEACH AN OLD DOG NEW TRICKS”

16. APPLYING NOAH’S RULE “Predicting rain doesn’t count. Building arks does.”