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Creative tensions between statistics and economics: The data-ink ratio SERC – Plenary Session 5 Danny Quah Professor of Economics, LSE 08 August 2009.

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Presentation on theme: "Creative tensions between statistics and economics: The data-ink ratio SERC – Plenary Session 5 Danny Quah Professor of Economics, LSE 08 August 2009."— Presentation transcript:

1 Creative tensions between statistics and economics: The data-ink ratio SERC – Plenary Session 5 Danny Quah Professor of Economics, LSE 08 August 2009

2 Creative tensions… outside Global economic crisis: “Spread the joy, feel the burn” ◦ Finance and macroeconomics ◦ Asset pricing and economic fluctuations Examples: 1.Global imbalances 2.BRICs in the evolving global economic landscape 3.Global growth and poverty Creative tensions - statistics and economicsD. Quah2

3 1. Global imbalances Global savings glut, Asian thrift Flood of cheap capital onto world markets Ever-more innovative, extreme financial engineering “Asymmetric obligations” Causality? Creative tensions - statistics and economicsD. Quah3

4 US trade deficit and a GDP Creative tensions - statistics and economicsD. Quah4

5 US trade balance Creative tensions - statistics and economicsD. Quah5

6 US-China bilateral trade balance Creative tensions - statistics and economicsD. Quah6

7 US bilateral trade balance Creative tensions - statistics and economicsD. Quah7

8 US bilateral trade balance Creative tensions - statistics and economicsD. Quah8

9 2. BRICs Growth, convergence β, σ convergence ; unit roots, cointegration; convergence clubs; dynamic distributions It’s just “Brazil, Russia, India, China” (Goldman Sachs thought leadership) ◦ “The rise of the rest” ◦ “The Asian century/hemisphere” Creative tensions - statistics and economicsD. Quah9

10 Shifts in the global economy’s centre of gravity … in flat world Creative tensions - statistics and economicsD. Quah10

11 Shifts in the global economy’s centre of gravity … in flat world Creative tensions - statistics and economicsD. Quah11

12 Shifts in the global economy’s centre of gravity … in flat world Creative tensions - statistics and economicsD. Quah12

13 Shifts in the global economy’s centre of gravity … in flat world Creative tensions - statistics and economicsD. Quah13

14 3. Global growth and inequality Tradeoff between growth and inequality? (Kuznets curve, Okun leaky bucket) Cross section? Time series? Panel? Creative tensions - statistics and economicsD. Quah14

15 World growth and poverty Creative tensions - statistics and economicsD. Quah15

16 World growth and poverty Creative tensions - statistics and economicsD. Quah16

17 World growth and poverty Creative tensions - statistics and economicsD. Quah17

18 World growth and poverty Creative tensions - statistics and economicsD. Quah18

19 Conclusions Discussion on methodology… but also substantive examples Our methods come up short on the really big questions, those observable from outer space Edward Tufte’s data/ink ratio What is our value/statistic ratio? Creative tensions - statistics and economicsD. Quah19

20 Creative tensions between statistics and economics: The data-ink ratio SERC – Plenary Session 5 Danny Quah Professor of Economics, LSE 08 August 2009


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