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Lesson Plan - APP Probability Mental and Oral Starter Pupils to revisit the never heard the word grid to check their understanding of the key words. Main Explain that the purpose of this lesson is to assess their understanding so although they can ask a friend for help they must be honest when they come to self assess at the end of the lesson. Explain that if they find their chosen challenge either too hard or too easy they should swap for a different challenge. Ensure that pupils are aware that they only have this lesson to complete their chosen challenge so they must stay on task and work to the best of their ability to be able to accurately assess themselves. Plenary Hand out the pink APP sheets. Ask pupils to look at their assessment sheet and colour in all the levels they feel that can achieve independently. Tell pupils that they must complete the ‘Tips / Hints’ box by explaining in their own words the maths they did today. Ask them to also describe any help that they had. Explain to pupils that you will be marking their work and completing the ‘my teacher’s’ boxes. Remind students that next lesson for the starter activity they must come in and look for the question you have set and respond either by answering it or by explaining why the question is too hard for them to answer. Objectives Pupils to self assess their understanding of probability. Teacher to carry out an APP assessment using probing questions. Keywords :Outcome, Event, Sample Space Diagram

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Probing Questions Level 5 Find and justify probabilities based on equally likely outcomes in simple contexts. For example: The letters of the word REINDEER are written on 8 cards, and a card is chosen at random. What is the probability that the chosen letter is an E? On a fair die what is the probability of rolling a prime number? Can you give me an example of what is meant by ‘equally likely outcomes’? Level 6 Use a sample space diagram to show all outcomes when two dice are thrown together, and the scores added. One red and one white dice are both numbered 1 to 6. Both dice are thrown and the scores added. Use a sample space to show all possible outcomes. How do you go about identifying all the mutually exclusive outcomes for an experiment? What strategies do you use to make sure you have found all possible mutually exclusive outcomes for two successive events, for example rolling two dice? How do you know you have recorded all the possible outcomes? Level 7 Recognise that repeated trials result in experimental probability tending to a limit, and that this limit may be the only way to estimate probability. Describe situations where the use of experimental data to estimate a probability would be necessary. What might be different about using theoretical probability to find the probability of obtaining a 6 when you roll a dice, and using experimental probability for the same purpose? True or false Experimental probability is more reliable than theoretical probability; Experimental probability gets closer to the true probability as more trials are carried out; Relative frequency finds the true probability.

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27-Apr-15 RAG Reflect, Assess, Explain, Communicate LO To assess your Understanding Starter Activity Look back at the Heard the Word Grid that you completed at the start of the unit. Are there any words that you understand now and can describe which you couldn’t before?

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27-Apr-15 RAG Reflect, Assess, Explain, Communicate LO To assess your Understanding In today’s lesson you will be reflecting upon what you have learnt in the last few maths lessons. You will be completing a challenge. You are allowed to look back in your book but you should be working independently..

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Key WordsNever heard before? Heard of but not sure what it means? Know what it means and can explain it in context Jot down your ideas here... Event Outcome Random Biased / Unbiased Theoretical Probability Experimental Probability Mutually exclusive

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Key WordsNever heard before? Heard of but not sure what it means? Know what it means and can explain it in context Jot down your ideas here... Event Outcome Random Biased / Unbiased Theoretical Probability Experimental Probability Mutually exclusive

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Additional Task You could add a new task for level 3 where pupils can match pre coloured spinners to statements. Which is certain Which is impossible, Which is an even chance….etc

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You have been given 4 colours; Red, Blue, Green and yellow Spinner 1 - Yellows must be most likely to win Spinner 2- 2 colours are equally likely to win Spinner 3- Blues are least likely to win Spinner 4 - Reds can never win

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You have been given 4 colours; Red, Blue, Green and yellow Spinner 1 - Yellows must be most likely to win Spinner 2- 2 colours are equally likely to win Spinner 3- Blues are least likely to win Spinner 4 - Reds can never win

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Level 4 Challenge Using at least 3 colours, colour the spinners so that the statements in the table are true. Then move to level 5. If you are not ready to move to level 5 then 1.) Ask your teacher for some more blank spinners and colour them differently so that the statements are still true? 2.) Make up some statements of your own and colour the spinners to make the statements true. Level 5 Challenge After you have coloured in the spinners describe the probability of getting each colour as a fraction. For example - Spinner 1 (P) Red = (P) Blue = (P) Green = (P) Yellow = Level 6 Challenge Draw a sample space diagram to show all the possible outcomes when spinners 1 and 2 are spun together. What is the probability of :- a)getting two colours the same b)getting at least one blue c)getting a blue and a yellow d)not getting a red Level 7 Challenge Answer the following questions:- What might be different about using theoretical probability to find the probability of obtaining a 6 when you roll a dice, and using experimental probability for the same purpose? True or false Experimental probability is more reliable than theoretical probability? Experimental probability gets closer to the true probability as more trials are carried out?

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Blank Spinners

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To be a better learner I could Less HelpfulMore Helpful Work Faster / do moreStay on task. Be neaterClearly show my working out. Try the harder onesPut my hand up to ask a question when I don’t understand. Talk lessMake sure that when I am talking to the people on my table, I am talking about the Maths. Listen more when the teacher is talking. Contribute answers and questions during the explanation part of the lesson.

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levelProbability Skills 7 I understand the difference between experimental and theoretical probability. I can use relative frequency as an estimate and to compare the outcomes of experiments. 6 I can complete a sample space diagram and use it to calculate probabilities. 5 I can describe the probability of an event happening using a fraction, decimal or percentage. 4 I can use I the language of probability to describe the probability of an event occurring. 3 I can use the probability words impossible, certain and even chance to describe the probability of an event occurring. Top Tips / Hints......

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My teachers comment My teachers question is My answer is......

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Plenary Complete the Pink Assessment Sheet. Fold it in half and glue it into your book. Answer the question that you have been set.

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