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E LECTRICITY, DAMS AND TECHNOLOGY CHOICE IN E AST A FRICA : A WINDOW INTO POLITICAL CHANGE Christopher Gore.

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Presentation on theme: "E LECTRICITY, DAMS AND TECHNOLOGY CHOICE IN E AST A FRICA : A WINDOW INTO POLITICAL CHANGE Christopher Gore."— Presentation transcript:

1 E LECTRICITY, DAMS AND TECHNOLOGY CHOICE IN E AST A FRICA : A WINDOW INTO POLITICAL CHANGE Christopher Gore

2 The Evolving African Energy Landscape Large, mega interventions versus small distributed, renewable generation Needs = experimentation and precedents Knowledge and research gaps : implementation, effects, and impact

3 Policy & Technology Choice Political and social context Political and social effects Energy governance in Africa

4 Uganda: Reform and technology choice Reform ‘showcase’ 2002: 4% national connection, 1% rural 2006: ‘We are in a crisis’ 2014: 14% national, 7% rural Research puzzle: Why does energy sector conflict with this apparent legacy? What shaped the choices and implementation challenges?

5 Response: Re-regulate; Unbundle; Bujagali Dam; Private sector Bujagali Falls “Bujagali is instrumental to privatization…without [it] the whole restructuring of the sector will collapse” – Nordic Bilateral rep “It’s a no brainer…show me the counterfactual”- WB country manager ‘When you find out why they did what they did please tell me’ – Kenya

6 Implementation Technical risks Private capital Reform sequencing Political and process risks Process: internally and externally defined ‘Process a circus…World Bank has to stop listening to nonsense…to those against development…Listen to people in 3 rd World.’ ‘Open war on them’ Other generation alternatives delayed GTZ/GIZ; geothermal; microhydro 6

7 Short-term legacy Government “We followed the gospel and have moved on…we are now the example of what not to do.” Learned by doing; new ‘development partners ’ Accept reform but not embrace: ERA World Bank Pricing; independent producers Hindsight – too ambitious; slower Civil society and opposition Not anti-dam; sophisticated requests; use processes in place; parliament/courts Bilaterals and multilaterals: New ‘natural’ division of responsibilities? Private sector: very sensitive to domestic conditions – political and financial

8 Moving forward: Politics of transition Electricity in Uganda = Conflict? Low-carbon narratives Technology choice Multiple transitions Process “Indirect effects of a problematic process can inflict penalties that are anything but nebulous” – Hirschman, 1967 Process (cont’d) “Proof of the pudding is in the eating, not the cooking” – Privatization Secretariat, Uganda China and large dams: how long? South Africa Politics and governance The state and institutions matter Policy choice, implementation, success Rigorous comparison


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