Klaus Woltron Energy – Poker – right or wrong? 2005 the peak of fossile energy production has been reached (is it true?) "Oil, Oil, Everywhere..." was the title of a fact-filled essay is a recent issue of The Wall Street Journal, which showed how absurd the "oil shortage" fears truly are: "To pick just one example among many, finding costs are essentially zero for the 3.5 trillion barrels of oil that soak the clay in the Orinoco basin in Venezuela, and the Athabasca tar sands in Alberta, Canada. Yes, that's trillion -- over a century's worth of global supply, at the current 30- billion-barrel-a-year rate of consumption."
Klaus Woltron Source: United Nations Environment Program http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/19.htm Global warming
Klaus Woltron Increase of disasters Source: Swiss Re
Klaus Woltron Enormous dynamics in all areas of society Technology Lifestyle Migration Political environment Borderless economy Styles of cooperation Communication networks Reengineering of life
Klaus Woltron Growth in any respect..but not so much in insight and wisdom. Outlook to 2050 Source: ETH Zurich, A. Zehnder
Klaus Woltron Overstressed biocapacity Transition to use-up biocapacity capital
Klaus Woltron Environment and resources: The bottleneck Quelle: Sustainable Performance Group, 2006 Today ?
Klaus Woltron Risks Immediate risks Long term risks
Klaus Woltron Technology enabled the growth of mankind's populations Years
Klaus Woltron Why sustainability? There is no way back to pure nature Without controlled use of technology earth cannot nurture more than max. 1,5 billion people
Klaus Woltron Collateral economic damage: Good tasks – bad side effects
Klaus Woltron Steps into a sustainable world 197019801990200020102020203020402050 Problem identification Regulations, subsidies Target - oriented measures Measures against causes Responsibility for causalities Economic incentives and system approach End of pipe Club of Rome Efficiency increase Sustainability as guiding principle of all decisions Red. Of poverty, stab. of pop. growth 2000 Watt- society (?) Rio Tokyo (follows ETH/Zehnder)
Klaus Woltron Source: BFE, IPCC 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 Watt 2200 2180 2160 2140 2120 2100 2080 2060 2040 2020 2000 1980 1960 1940 1920 1900 Erneuerbare Energie total Renewable energies Fossile energy consumption 2000- Watt- Society
Klaus Woltron 0 W 2000 W 10`000 W Jahr 2000 Jahr 2050 6000 W In average: 2000 Watt/Person
Klaus Woltron From gas guzzlers to nearly emission free vehicles Clean Engine Vehicle (CEV) (LNG, 44 kW, 1‘055 kg) VW Golf 1974 (Benzin, 55 kW, 810 kg) 40.4 g/km 3.5 g/km 1.3 g/km 165.7 g/km 8.6% (off. EU-Fahrzyklus) 0.15 g/km 0.10 g/km 0.00 g/km 109.5 g/km 15.4% (off. EU-Fahrzyklus) CO HC NOx CO 2 Efficiency
Klaus Woltron Bulbs who give light instead of heat Edison- lamp (1880)Energy saving bulb Factor: 25 3 lm/W 75-100 lm/W Efficiency: (Lichtstrom pro bezogene Leistung)
Klaus Woltron Fuel made of wood Ecogas Pilot plant for production of biogas made of wood Site: Güssing (Austria) Product: fuel for engines 1000- hour test end June, 2004 Target: 20 resp. 100 Megawatt- plant
Klaus Woltron Buildings without CO 2 - emissions 1970 MINERGIE-P EAWAG/Zurich Factor 8 200 kWh/m2a25 kWh/m2aEnergy input
Opportunities and chances for universities The challenge to set examples
Klaus Woltron Core elements of scientific values 1.Safeguarding human development 2.Integration of civilization- systems in the system of nature and synchronization with the potential of ecological systems 3.Integration of all this into scientific and technological long-term targets
Klaus Woltron Sustainability as basic principle of innovation Sustainability is a driving force for innovation Innovations are the driving forces for competitiveness and wealth. Innovations ask for boldness, risk taking and entrepreneurship Sustainability demands interconnected, interdisciplinary competences Sustainability is top managements/the rectors business. … a pioneer's affair!
Klaus Woltron Good professional perspectives Much more important in former times…. Source: Föhrenbergkreis Vienna, 2000 Rising challenge!
Klaus Woltron Big companies change their attitude
Klaus Woltron Sustainable investment targets: Water, energy, resource efficiency, healthy living
Klaus Woltron In the post- reengineering- world innovation is the key factor of success Innovativeness Rating: Based on America’s Most Admired Corporations, Fortune Magazine ranking of 578 U.S. companies based on executive peer ratings and investment analyst evaluations. Average Shareholder Return vs. Innovativeness Rating Average Annual Shareholder Return 1986-96 Innovativeness Rating -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 3,004,005,006,007,008,009,00 "Top management's commitment to and focus on increasing its organization's innovative ability could lead to significant bottom line results over and above typical costcutting and re-engineering initiatives" Source: ADL innovation survey 80% agree to:
Klaus Woltron Be prepared for setbacks and disappointments… 40% of all plans fail 30% of all new enterprises disappear within the first five years 50% of all mergers and re – development plans fail One has therefore to live with disappointments and failures. Without frustration tolerance you are chanceless in tomorrow's world.
Klaus Woltron Evolutional approach: Find new system guidelines and parameters……. …and leave further development to self – organization within the system.
Klaus Woltron The best plans are useless without the will to succeed.... Sub – consciousness drives our inspiration, intention, mood, and perception. Consciousness and action follow behing!
Klaus Woltron Thanks for your attention! THINK !