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Actual forecast NGLs Coalbed methane Hydro, wind, and other renewables Conventional natural gas Mined and in situ bitumen Conventional heavy oil Conventional.

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Presentation on theme: "Actual forecast NGLs Coalbed methane Hydro, wind, and other renewables Conventional natural gas Mined and in situ bitumen Conventional heavy oil Conventional."— Presentation transcript:

1 actual forecast NGLs Coalbed methane Hydro, wind, and other renewables Conventional natural gas Mined and in situ bitumen Conventional heavy oil Conventional L&M oil Coal Total energy production in Alberta Figure 1

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3 Figure 3. Alberta supply of crude oil and equivalent actualforecast Non upgraded bitumen Light-medium SCO Pentanes plus Heavy

4 actualforecast Figure 4 Total marketable gas production and demand 23%26%33%44%58%

5 Figure 5. Drilling Activity in Alberta, 1948 – 2008 Bitumen* - includes producing and evaluation wells Gas** - includes CBM wells Other *** - includes unsuccessful, service, and suspended wells

6 Figure 6. Alberta Conventional Crude Oil Production and Price Source: Prices - CAPP Statistical Handbook ERCB Prorationing Plan (restricted production) Major Oil Field Discoveries 1947 – Leduc 1948 – Redwater 1949 – Golden Spike 1952 – Bonnie Glen 1953 – Pembina 1957 – Swan Hills 1959 – Judy Creek 1959 – Swan Hills South Rainbow Major Events Affecting Price 1973 – Oil Embargo 1979 – Iranian Revolution 1980 – Iran / Iraq War 1986 – OPEC Crumbles 1990 – Gulf War 1998 – Asian Econ. Crisis 2001 – 9 / – Iraq War Petroleum and Natural Gas Conservation Board (ERCB) created to enforce production standards Export Pipelines 1950 – Interprovincial Pipeline (Enbridge) 1953 – Trans Mountain Pipe Line

7 Figure 7. Alberta mined bitumen and synthetic crude oil production and price Great Canadian Oil Sands (Suncor) Startup Syncrude Startup Alberta Oil Sands Project Startup

8 Figure 8. Alberta in situ bitumen production and price

9 Figure 9 Historical natural gas production and price Gas prices as a by-product of oil production. Price less than replacement cost Arbitration awards price increase Regulated gas price tied to oil prices; Surplus built up Price deregulation Surplus gas drives down prices PGT expansion Northern Border pipeline expansion Hurricanes Katrina and Rita hit U.S. Gulf Coast Foothills Pipe Lines built for gas exports to California and the mid-western U.S. Alliance Pipeline on stream

10 Figure 10 Sulphur closing inventories in Alberta and price Prices reached highs in the US$650-$840/tonne range in 2008

11 1898 – Expansion of railway network (coal and oil fired steam engines) and growth of population 1952 – Beginning of change to diesel-electric trains 1960 – Steam rail era ends Late1960’s – Beginning of exports to Japan for steel industry 1970’s – increase in coal-fired electric generation 1950’s – Crude oil and natural gas replace coal as energy source of choice Coal remained “King Coal” until huge reservoirs of crude oil and natural gas were discovered Figure 11 Historical coal production and price Australian-Japan contract price for thermal coal (Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics - ABARE) Late 1990’s – mine closures and reduced coal exports due to depressed coal prices

12 Figure 1.1 OPEC crude basket reference price 2008 Source: OPEC

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14 Figure 1.3 Price of WTI at Chicago actual forecast High Low

15 Figure 1.4 Average price of oil at Alberta wellhead actual forecast High Low

16 Figure average monthly reference prices in Alberta Light-medium Heavy Bitumen

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18 Figure 1.7 Average price of natural gas at plant gate actual forecast high low

19 Figure 1.8 Alberta Wholesale Electricity Prices actualforecast

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21 Figure 1.10 Canadian economic indicators Source: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada Exchange Rate Prime rate on Loans Inflation rate Prime vs. inflation Unemployment vs. GDP growth Unemployment rate Real GDP growth

22 Figure 1.11 Alberta real investment actualforecast Source: Statistics Canada, Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers *includes support activities to mining and oil and gas extraction Other Public Residential Coal and metal mining* Conventional oil and gas Oil sands

23 Value of Production in Alberta N/A

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25 Figure 2.2 Remaining established reserves under active development

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31 ATHABASCA COLD LAKE PEACE RIVER Figure 2.8. Production of Bitumen in Alberta, m 3 /d Mined Bitumen In Situ

32 Figure 2.9. Alberta crude oil and equivalent production

33 Figure Total in situ bitumen production and producing bitumen wells

34 Figure In situ bitumen production by oil sands area (OSA) Synthetic Crude Oil Cold Lake OSA Athabasca OSA Peace River OSA

35 Figure In situ bitumen production by recovery method Synthetic Crude Oil Primary Production CSS Production SAGD Production Experimental Production

36 Figure Alberta crude bitumen production Surface mining In situ actualforecast

37 Figure Alberta synthetic crude oil production Synthetic Crude Oil Synthetic crude oil actualforecast

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40 Figure Alberta oil sands upgrading coke inventory Synthetic Crude Oil Oil Sands Plants – Coke Inventory

41 Figure Alberta demand and disposition of crude bitumen and SCO Synthetic Crude Oil Alberta demand (mainly SCO) actualforecast SCO removals from Alberta Nonupgraded bitumen removals from Alberta

42 Figure 3.1 Remaining established reserves of crude oil Heavy Light-medium

43 Figure 3.2 Annual changes in conventional crude oil reserves

44 Figure 3.3 Annual changes to waterflood reserves

45 Figure 3.4 Distribution of oil reserves by size Remaining reserves (10 3 m 3 ) Total number of poolsInitial reserves (10 3 m 3 )

46 Figure 3.5 Oil pool size by discovery year

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48 Figure 3.7 Geological distribution of reserves of conventional crude oil

49 2008 Initial established reserves m Remaining established reserves m 3 Fig Regional distribution of Alberta oil reserves 2008 (10 6 m 3 )

50 Figure 3.9 Alberta’s remaining established oil reserves versus cumulative production

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52 Figure Alberta successful oil well drilling By modified PSAC area 2007 Wells Drilled = Wells Drilled = % 2% 5% 11% 3% 100% <1% 12%

53 Total wells = 1738 Figure Oil wells placed on production, 2008 by modified PSAC area

54 Figure Initial operating day rates of oil wells placed on production, 2008 by modified PSAC area m 3 /day/well 16.1 [101] 9.6 [60] 8.5 [54] 5.1 [32] 7.6 [48] 2.4 [15] 6.6 [42]

55 Figure Conventional crude oil production by modified PSAC area PSAC 8 PSAC 7 PSAC 5 PSAC 3 PSAC 4 PSAC 2 PSAC 1

56 Figure Total crude oil production and producing wells

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58 Figure Crude oil well productivity in 2008

59 Figure Total conventional crude oil production by drilled year % of total production from oil wells Pre % 48% 7% 3% 4% 2% 5% 3% 5% 6% 8%

60 Figure Comparison of crude oil production Texas onshore Louisiana onshore Alberta crude oil

61 Figure WTI crude oil price and well activity actualforecast

62 actualforecast Figure Alberta average daily production of crude oil Heavy Light-medium

63 Figure Capacity and location of Alberta refineries

64 actualforecast Figure Alberta demand and disposition of crude oil Crude oil removals from Alberta Alberta demand

65 Figure Alberta supply of crude oil and equivalent actualforecast Non upgraded bitumen Light-medium SCO Pentanes plus Heavy

66 Figure Alberta crude oil and equivalent production actualforecast

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73 HSC Mannville

74 Figure 5.1 Annual reserves additions and production of conventional marketable gas

75 Figure 5.2 Remaining conventional marketable gas reserves

76 Figure 5.3 New, development, and revisions to conventional marketable gas reserves * Distribution of changes revised in 2008

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78 Figure 5.5 Distribution of conventional gas reserves by size Remaining reserves (10 9 m 3 ) Total number of pools (10 6 m 3 ) Initial reserves (10 9 m 3 )

79 Figure 5.6 Conventional gas pool size by discovery year

80 Figure 5.7 Geological distribution of conventional marketable gas reserves

81 Figure 5.8 Remaining conventional marketable reserves of sweet and sour gas Sweet natural gas Sour natural gas

82 Figure 5.9 Expected recovery of conventional natural gas components

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84 Figure 5.11 Conventional gas ultimate potential Ultimate potential based on EUB/NEB 2005 Report Remaining reserves Production

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86 Figure 5.13 Conventional gas in place by geological period

87 Figure 5.14 Alberta successful gas well drilling (conventional) by modified PSAC area % 38% 47% 61%27% 2%21% 1% 2007 wells drilled = % 2008 wells drilled = 7310

88 Figure 5.15 Successful conventional gas wells drilled and connected

89 Figure 5.16 Conventional gas well connections by modified PSAC area Wells Total Wells connected = Wells Total Wells connected = 7907

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91 Figure 5.18 Marketable gas production by modified PSAC area PSAC 6 PSAC 4 PSAC 5 PSAC 2 PSAC 3 PSAC 1 Gas from oil wells PSAC 7 PSAC 8 % of total production 1% 4% 3% 11% 4% 20% 42% 6% 9%

92 Figure 5.19 Conventional marketable gas production and number of producing wells

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94 Figure 5.21 Natural gas well productivity in 2008

95 Pre Gas from oil wells Figure 5.22 Raw gas production by connection year % of total production from gas wells 5 Connection year

96 Figure 5.23 Raw gas production of sweet and sour gas

97 Figure 5.24 Comparison of raw natural gas production Texas onshore Louisiana onshore Alberta US total production

98 Figure 5.25 Average initial natural gas well productivity in Alberta

99 Figure 5.26 Alberta natural gas well activity and price actualforecast

100 Figure 5.27 Conventional marketable gas production actualforecast

101 Figure 5.28 Gas production from bitumen upgrading and bitumen wells used for oil sands operations actualforecast

102 Figure 5.29 Total gas production in Alberta actualforecast

103 Figure 5.30 Alberta natural gas storage injection/withdrawal volumes

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106 Figure 5.33 Alberta marketable gas demand by sector Reprocessing plant shrinkage Transportation Electricity generation Other industrial Industrial - petrochemical Industrial – oil sands Residential Commercial actualforecast

107 Figure 5.34 Historical volumes “available for permitting”

108 actual forecast Mining and Upgrading In Situ In Situ Cogeneration Mining and Upgrading Cogeneration Figure 5.35 Purchased natural gas demand for oil sands operations

109 Figure 5.36 Gas demand for bitumen recovery and upgrading actualforecast Purchased gas Produced gas from bitumen Process gas from upgrading* * Does not included process gas for electricity generation.

110 actual forecast Process Gas for Mining/Upgrading Produced Gas from Bitumen Wells for In situ Recovery Purchased Gas for In situ Recovery Purchased Gas for Electricity Cogeneration Purchased Gas for Mining/Upgrading Process Gas for Electricity Cogeneration Figure 5.37 Total Purchased, Process and Produced Gas for Oil Sands Production

111 actualforecast Figure 5.38 Total marketable gas production and demand 23% 26% 33% 44% 58%

112 Figure 6.1 Remaining established NGL reserves expected to be extracted from conventional gas and annual production

113 Figure 6.2 Remaining established reserves of conventional natural gas liquids

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115 Figure 6.4. Ethane supply and demand actual forecast

116 Figure 6.5. Propane supply from natural gas and demand actual forecast * excludes solvent flood volumes Alberta Demand* Supply

117 Figure 6.6. Butanes supply from natural gas and demand actual forecast * excludes solvent flood volumes Alberta Demand* Supply

118 Figure 6.7. Pentanes supply from natural gas and demand for diluent actual forecast * excludes solvent flood volumes demand met by alternative sources and types of diluent Alberta Demand* Supply

119 Figure 7.1 Sulphur production from gas processing plants in Alberta

120 Figure 7.2 Sulphur production from oil sands

121 Figure 7.3 Sources of sulphur production Sour gas Refining and upgrading

122 Figure 7.4 Canadian sulphur offshore exports

123 Alberta Demand Removed from Alberta Stockpile Withdrawals Stockpile Total Demand Production actual forecast Figure 7.5 Sulphur demand and supply in Alberta

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125 Subbituminous Thermal bituminous Metallurgical bituminous Figure 8.2 Alberta marketable coal production actualforecast

126 actualforecast Figure 9.1. Alberta electricity generating capacity

127 Figure 9.2. Alberta electricity generation actualforecast

128 Figure 9.3. Alberta electricity transfers

129 Figure 9.4. Alberta electricity consumption by sector actualforecast

130 9.5. Alberta oil sands electricity generation and demand actual forecast Electricity Generation Demand


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