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Alberta Employment, Immigration and Industry Alberta’s Occupational Demand and Supply Outlook Models 2006-2016.

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Presentation on theme: "Alberta Employment, Immigration and Industry Alberta’s Occupational Demand and Supply Outlook Models 2006-2016."— Presentation transcript:

1 Alberta Employment, Immigration and Industry Alberta’s Occupational Demand and Supply Outlook Models 2006-2016

2 Presentation Overview Reasons for Occupational Demand and Supply Models Occupational Demand Model Approach Occupational Supply Model Approach Results Next Steps Occupational Demand/Supply Imbalances

3 Reasons for Occupational Demand and Supply Models Developing an analytical framework for AEII to assess public policy issues Provides information to policymakers about resources Creating strategies that facilitate improved labour market information for Albertans Used to determine potential supply bottlenecks Mismatch between supply and demand

4 Occupational Demand Model Approach Economic Outlook Occupational Outlook Occupational Demand

5 Occupational Supply Model Approach Occupational Supply DemographicsEducation

6 Occupational Demand/Supply Models Economic Outlook Occupational Outlook Occupational Demand Occupational Supply Education Demographics Occupational Demand/Supply Imbalances

7 Once occupational demand and supply has been projected, a simple ratio is calculated: A ratio of greater than one indicates a supply shortage, less than one indicates a supply surplus Occupational Demand Occupational Supply

8 Results Overall Occupational Outlook Occupational Shortages Occupational Surpluses

9 Overall Occupational Outlook

10 Overall Occupational Outlook (Cont.)

11 Occupational Shortages Top Five Occupations with Growing Occupational Shortages Occupations (NOC 2001) Supply Minus Demand, 2006 Supply Minus Demand, 2016 Year of First Shortage Machine operators and related workers in textile processing -127-6322006 Physicians, dentists and veterinarians -439-4,9222006 Facility operation and maintenance managers -1,266-3,9082006 Other engineers-629-3,2802006 Other elemental service occupations -375-2,0742006

12 Occupational Surpluses Top Five Occupations with Growing Occupational Surpluses Occupations (NOC 2001) Supply Minus Demand, 2005 Supply Minus Demand, 2015 Year of First Surplus Contractors, operators & supervisors in agriculture, horticulture & aquaculture 3773137022006 Psychologists, social workers, counsellors, clergy & probation officers 10635052006 Judges, lawyers & Quebec notaries 17919722006 Sales, marketing & advertising managers 100425912006 Librarians, archivists, conservators & curators 284832006

13 Next Steps Enhancements for the upcoming year will include: Improving the historical data by using 2006 Census Occupational mobility because it is a critical component of providing accurate occupational supply and demand projections Improving the retirement data by using the Survey of Labour Income Dynamics (SLID) The 2006 to 2016 forecast is available now

14 Contact Information The report available online at: http://www.hre.gov.ab.ca/documents/LMI/LMI- LMF_occ_demand_supply.pdf To provide comments and feedback or to schedule a presentation, please email: lfs.analyst@gov.ab.ca

15 QUESTIONS?


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