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Mars 2002 Financial Part Business Plan Pointe-Noire Airport BOT – CONCESSION PROJECT.

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Presentation on theme: "Mars 2002 Financial Part Business Plan Pointe-Noire Airport BOT – CONCESSION PROJECT."— Presentation transcript:

1 Mars 2002 Financial Part Business Plan Pointe-Noire Airport BOT – CONCESSION PROJECT

2 Business Plan - Table of Content Executive Summary Initial Investments Development Costs Revenues Operational Expenses Annual Profits Cash Flow ROI Appendixes

3 Executive Summary Le Gouvernement Congolaise a Décidé avec le Groupe LR de Moderniser l’Aéroport International de Pointe-Noire et un Contrat a été Signé La Modernisation de PNR Contribuera aux développement de: –La Ville de Pointe-Noire et la Région de Kouilou –Échanges Nationaux et Particulièrement les relations Pointe-Noire / Brazzaville –Échanges Internationaux avec l’Afrique, l’Europe, l’Amérique Latine et les États Unis La Piste de l’Aéroport est Actuellement Élargie, Allongé et Renforcé afin de Recevoir des Avions Long Courier comme l’Airbus 330 –2.600 X 45 mètres plus 2 X 100 m, Une Deuxième Bretelle et Une Extension du Parking Avion de m² –Le Travaux sont Financés par le Gouvernement Congolaise

4 Executive Summary Le Principes du BOT / Concession: –Une Compagnie a été crée – ADP-N –Actionnaires: Gouvernement Congolaise : 22% Investisseurs Privés:78% –Partenaires Congolais 26% –Partenaires Internationaux52% –Construction d’Un Aérogare Internationale (6.200m²), Terminal Fret, Développement de la Zone –Amélioration de l’Ancien Aérogare, Expropriation –Gestion de l’Aéroport Pendant Plus de 18 Ans –Contribution pour le Développement des Aéroports Secondaires: 5% des Revenues < 2 Billions FCFA 7% des Revenues > 2 Billions FCFA

5 Executive Summary Activités de l’Aéroport de Pointe-Noire (en 2000) –Mouvements –Passagers –Fret (Tons) Investissement Initial USD Coûts de Développement USD / An Revenues Net *3, USD Dépenses USD Bénéfices Net (*)(**) USD * 1 ère Année ** Disponible pour les Investisseurs

6 Executive Summary Hypotheses pour le Cash Flow Scénario Pessimiste – Bénéfice Net 1 ère Année: USD –Croissance: 10% Premières 3 Ans; 4.5% par la Suite –Taux d’Internet: 4.75% Scénario Moyen – Bénéfice Net 1 ère Année: USD –Croissance: 20% Premières 3 Ans; 6.5% par la Suite –Taux d’Internet: 6.75% Scénario Optimiste – Bénéfice Net 1 ère Année: USD –Croissance: 25% Premières 3 Ans; 6.5% par la Suite –Taux d’Internet: 8.75%

7 Executive Summary Retour sur Investissement (ROI) Scénario Pessimiste –Impossibilité d’Amortire Scénario Moyen –ROI en 19 Ans Scénario Optimiste –ROI en 17 Ans

8 ADP-N Shareholdings Congolese Government: 22% Private Investors: 78% –Congolese Partners: 26% – International Partners: 52%

9 Initial Investments Following Study by LR Group in cooperation with Congo: –Concept, Researches, Experts, … –Meetings with Government Officials, Investors, Airlines … The Initial Scope of the Investment is: –New International Terminal (6200 m2) –Zone Development –Improving Old Terminal –Cargo Terminal –Expropriation

10 Initial Investment (2)

11 Initial Investment (3)

12 Development Costs Starting Year n+1 Developments of: –Trade Free Zones –Aircraft Maintenance Area –Cargo Areas and Shops –Land Side Commerce –Access roads in the Airport –Airport Environment Systems: –Advanced Telecommunication systems –Back-up Power Supply Additional Buildings –Catering (Aircraft Services), Offices, Commerce, Etc. Total: $0.5M / Year (Up to 20% of Net Profit)

13 Revenues - Table of Content Airlines Operating in Pointe-Noire Historical Traffic Statistics –Landings –Passengers (National, Regional, Int’l) –Cargo (National, Regional, Int’l) The Revenues Sources Annual Income/Revenues

14 Airlines Operating in PNR in 2000 CONPANYTYPE OF A/CDESTINATION Air Afrique737/300; 727/100,200International Trans Air Benin737/300International Lina Congo737/300, 727/100, 200 Antonov 11 International / national Air Gabon737/300International Angola Airlines737/300International Aero Service727/100International Trance Air Congo 727/200Naional Air Espace737/300National Air Atlantis727/100National Sources: Experts Mission to PNR October. 2000

15 Historical Statistics Landings – Year 2000 MOTW/TONTYPE/AC NO OF LANDING PER WEEK TYPE OF MOVMT 3Cesna 402, BN 201National 5Cesna 4046National 8Kaza 12 (Fernch Army))12National 22Antonov 2454National 90% Int'l 10% 54B 737/ % National 70% Int'l 6161Antonov 12 cargo14National 64Antonov 116Int'l 69B 737/3006Int'l 79B 727/10018National 96B 727/20020National Total Landing 162 per week of which 137 national presenting 85% of total landing and 25 international – 15% Sources: Experts Mission to PNR October. 2000

16 Historical Statistics – Passengers National Traffic 1999/ st Quarter (Jan. to March) PAX Variation %RepartitionIn % Company / Lina Congo012, Trans Air Congo24,23435, Aero Service8,71022, Air Espace5,2951,066(80 - ) Equaflight10,4270(100 - )21.20 Others4881, Total49,15472, Sources: Experts Mission to PNR October. 2000

17 Historical Statistics – Passengers National Traffic 1999/2000 2nd Quarter (April. to June) PAX %VariationRepartition %In Company / Lina Congo06, Trans Air Congo36, , Aero Service10, , Air Espace4, Equaflight3, Air Atlatis01, Others Total55, , Sources: Experts Mission to PNR October. 2000

18 Historical Statistics – Passengers National Traffic 1999/2000 3rd Quarter (July to Sep.) PAX %VariationRepartition %In Company / Lina Congo017, Trans Air Congo51, , Air Espace19, ,485(2.50- ) Equaflight2,2770(- 100)3.10 Air Atlatis05000 Others7310,07913, Total73, , Sources: Experts Mission to PNR October. 2000

19 Historical Statistics – Passengers (National Traffic) 1999 / 2000 (Per Year) Total National Passengers in 1999* : 238,200 Passengers (in & out) Total National Passengers in 2000* : 314,373 Passengers (in & out) * 4 th Quarter = average of 3 quarters Sources: Experts Mission to PNR October. 2000

20 Historical Statistics – Passengers (Regional Traffic) 1 st Quarter 1999/2000 PAX %VariationRepartitio n %In Company / Air Gabon250183(26.8-) Angola Air5851(12.1-) Lina Congo Aero Service242194(19.8-) Others Total Sources: Experts Mission to PNR October. 2000

21 Historical Statistics – Passengers (Regional) 2nd Quarter 1999/2000 PAX %VariationRepartitio n In Company / Air Gabon8,8737,731(-12.9) Angola Air1,4001, Lina Congo Aero Service Others12926(-79.8) Total10,74910, Sources: Experts Mission to PNR October. 2000

22 Historical Statistics – Passengers (Regional Traffic) 3rd Quarter CompanyPAX.PAXVariation % Repartitio n In % / Air Gabon9,3387,280(-22) Angola Air (-35.1) Lina Congo Aero Service Other Total11,67211, Sources: Experts Mission to PNR October. 2000

23 Historical Statistics – Passengers (Regional Traffic) 1999 / 2000 (Per Year) Total Regional Passengers in 1999* : Passengers (in & out) Total Regional Passengers in 2000* : Passengers (in & out) * 4 th Quarter = average of 3 quarters Sources: Experts Mission to PNR October. 2000

24 PAX %VariationRepartition%In Company / Air Afrique (54.1-)100 Total (54.1-)100 1 st Quarter PAX %VariationRepartition%In Company / Air Afrique (37.0-)100 Total (37.0-)100 2nd Quarter PAX RepartitionVariation % In % Company / Air Afrique (28.6-) Lina Congo Trans Air Benin Total (5.2-)100 3 rd Quarter Historical Statistics – Passengers (International) By Quarters 1999/2000 Sources: Experts Mission to PNR October. 2000

25 Historical Statistics – Passengers (International) 1999/2000 (Per Year) Total International Passengers in 1999* : Passengers (in & out) Total International Passengers in 2000* : Passengers (in & out) * 4 th Quarter = average of 3 quarters Sources: Experts Mission to PNR October. 2000

26 Historical Statistics Total 1999 / 2000 (Per Year) Movements, Passengers, Cargo Type VARIATION % 2000/1999 Movements18,45022, Passengers300,882357, Fret (Tons)71,39463,306(8.60- ) Poste (Tons)8 Sources: Experts Mission to PNR October. 2000

27 Annual Revenue First year of Operation The estimated revenue in the first year of operation include: –The actual level of activity combine with –New commercial development by LR Group The estimation is done on the bases of statistical data from year 2000.

28 Annual Revenue Sources– First Year Estimation* * Based on 2000 statistics F CFA Revenues from Passenger Taxes Fees –Passenger Departure (National): X F CFA…… –Passenger Departure (International): X F CFA… Revenues from Landing Fees –National Landings according to average of 54 MTOW Tones 85% of Movements: 2 X F CFA………………… –International Landings according to average of 54 MTOW Tones 15% of Monuments: 2 X F CFA………………… Cargo Fees – X 20 F CFA………… –Consequence of Train Renewal Operations (60% of above)… Aircraft Parking Fees – Movements: 2 X 1.5h above 2 first hours X 22 X 120 F CFA Gasoline Passage Fees – movements: 2 X galloons X 1.36 F CFA………… Sources: Experts Mission to PNR October. 2000

29 Annual Revenue – First Year Estimation* * Based on 2000 statistics Total Fees Revenues: F CFA Total Commercial Revenues: F CFA Total in USD: Sources: Experts Mission to PNR October. 2000

30 Operational Expenses Organization Chart

31 Operational Expenses Salaries (BOT Conditions) USD –75 Congolese Employees –Social security, Medical care, Social Allocations Services & Sub-Contractors USD –Electricity, Water, Telecommunication –Airport Services Management Expenses USD Consumables & Small Investments USD Monthly Summary Expenses Annual Summary Expenses USD

32 Annual Profit – 1 st Year Assumptions (BOT Conditions) –Congo Government Part22% –Contribution for Secondary Airports Development 5% from Income < 2 Billions F CFA 7% from Income > 2 Billions F CFA »Average: 6% Gross Revenues USD Net Revenues X 94% USD Expenses USD Profits – USD Net Profits* X 78% USD * Available for Investors

33 Cash Flow Assumptions –Revenues Increases New Runway 2600m / 45m + Tarmac & TW (Summer 2002) LR Group Management Experience –Expenses Control –Profits Sharing Pessimistic Scenario Medium Scenario Optimistic Scenario

34 Cash Flow – Pessimistic Scenario Assumptions 1.LR investment in BOT contract grew from 15 M USD to 19,75 M USD due to the increase of the terminal from M2 to M2. 2.There were major changes from the original 1999 forecast: a) International traffic goes now to Brazzaville and already now traffic is 54% less than 1999 b) Train line Pointe Noire- Brazzaville will dramatically reduce Cargo traffic. 3.Net Profit is calculated after payment of "concession fees" in any form to Congo % is the International general aviation rate of growth 5.10% rate of growth for 3 years upon operating the new Terminal and the extended runway % is the best finance rate that can be achieved for investments in Africa without any risk premium. Nevertheless, we are applying 4.75%. 7.Any additional investment will require extension of the concession period in order to recover it.

35 Cash Flow – Pessimistic Scenario

36 Cash Flow – Medium Scenario Assumptions 1.LR investment in BOT contract grew from 15 M USD to 19,75M USD due to the increase of the terminal from M2 to M2. 2.Although there were major changes from the original 1999 forecast, we believe that with LR management the level of the nominal income of 1999 will be kept as a basis for 2000 and onwards. 3.Net Profit is calculated after payment of "concession fees" in any form to Congo. 4.LR management will achieve a higher rate of growth than the international aviation rate. 5.20% rate of growth for 3 years upon operating the new Terminal and the extended runway % is the best finance rate that can be achieved for investments in Africa without any risk premium. Nevertheless, we are applying 6.75%. 7.Any additional investment will require extension of the concession period in order to recover it.

37 Cash Flow – Medium Scenario

38 Cash Flow – Optimistic Scenario Assumptions 1.LR investment in BOT contract grew from 15 M USD to 19,75 M USD due to the increase of the terminal from M2 to M2. 2.Although there were major changes from the original 1999 forecast, we believe that with LR management the level of the nominal income of 1999 will be kept as a basis for 2000 and onwards. 3.Net Profit is calculated after payment of "concession fees" in any form to Congo. 4.LR management will achieve a higher rate of growth than the international aviation rate. 5.25% rate of growth for 3 years upon operating the new Terminal and the extended runway % is the best finance rate that can be achieved for investments in Africa without any risk premium. 7.Any additional investment will require extension of the concession period in order to recover it.

39 Cash Flow – Optimistic Scenario

40 Cash Flow – Present value Chart Data

41 ROI – Summery Chart

42 ROI As Seen in the Cash Flow Tables and Chart, The Break Even Period is: Pessimistic Scenario.……. >> Years Medium Scenario…………….19 Years Optimistic Scenario…………..17 Years

43 Appendix 1 Historical Statistics 2000/2001 International Movements 1 st Semester CompanyMovements Variation % Repartition In % / Air Afrique Trans Air Benin Lina Congo Total

44 Appendix 1 (2) Historical Statistics 2000/2001 Regional Movements 1 st Semester CompanyMovements Variation % Repartition In % / Air Gabon Angola Air (TAAG) Lina Congo Aero Service Other Total

45 Appendix 1 (3) Historical Statistics /2001 National Movements 1 st Semester CompanyMovements Variation % Repartition In % / Lina Congo T.A.C Aero Service Equaflight Air Atlantis A.A.C Others Total

46 Appendix 1 (4) Historical Statistics 2000/2001 International Passengers 1 st Semester CompanyPAX Variati on % Repartition In % / Air Afrique Trans Air Benin Lina Congo Total

47 Appendix 1 (5) Historical Statistics /2001 Regional Passengers 1 st Semester CompanyMovements Variation % Repartition In % / Air Gabon Angola Air (TAAG) Lina Congo Aero Service Other Total

48 Appendix 1 (6) Historical Statistics /2001 National Passengers 1 st Semester CompanyMovements Variation % Repartition In % / Lina Congo T.A.C Aero Service Air Espace Air Atlantis A.A.C Others Total

49 Appendix 1 (7) Historical Statistics 2000/2001 International Cargo 1 st Semester CompanyMovements Variation % Repartition In % / Air Afrique Total

50 Appendix 1 (8) Historical Statistics 2000/2001 Regional Cargo 1 st Semester CompanyMovements Variation % Repartition In % / Air Gabon Angola Air (TAAG) Lina Congo Others Total

51 Appendix 1 (9) Historical Statistics 2000/2001 National Cargo 1 st Semester CompanyMovements Variation % Repartition In % / Lina Congo T.A.C Aero Service Equaflight A.A.C Others Total

52 Appendix 1 (10) Historical Statistics Total Movements, Passengers, Cargo 1 st Semester 2000 / 2001 Type VARIATION % 2000/2001 Movements Passengers Fret (Tons) Poste (Tons) 49125


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