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Mars 2002 Financial Part Business Plan Pointe-Noire Airport BOT – CONCESSION PROJECT.

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Presentation on theme: "Mars 2002 Financial Part Business Plan Pointe-Noire Airport BOT – CONCESSION PROJECT."— Presentation transcript:

1 Mars 2002 Financial Part Business Plan Pointe-Noire Airport BOT – CONCESSION PROJECT

2 Business Plan - Table of Content Executive Summary Initial Investments Development Costs Revenues Operational Expenses Annual Profits Cash Flow ROI Appendixes

3 Executive Summary Le Gouvernement Congolaise a Décidé avec le Groupe LR de Moderniser l’Aéroport International de Pointe-Noire et un Contrat a été Signé La Modernisation de PNR Contribuera aux développement de: –La Ville de Pointe-Noire et la Région de Kouilou –Échanges Nationaux et Particulièrement les relations Pointe-Noire / Brazzaville –Échanges Internationaux avec l’Afrique, l’Europe, l’Amérique Latine et les États Unis La Piste de l’Aéroport est Actuellement Élargie, Allongé et Renforcé afin de Recevoir des Avions Long Courier comme l’Airbus 330 –2.600 X 45 mètres plus 2 X 100 m, Une Deuxième Bretelle et Une Extension du Parking Avion de 15.000 m² –Le Travaux sont Financés par le Gouvernement Congolaise

4 Executive Summary Le Principes du BOT / Concession: –Une Compagnie a été crée – ADP-N –Actionnaires: Gouvernement Congolaise : 22% Investisseurs Privés:78% –Partenaires Congolais 26% –Partenaires Internationaux52% –Construction d’Un Aérogare Internationale (6.200m²), Terminal Fret, Développement de la Zone –Amélioration de l’Ancien Aérogare, Expropriation –Gestion de l’Aéroport Pendant Plus de 18 Ans –Contribution pour le Développement des Aéroports Secondaires: 5% des Revenues < 2 Billions FCFA 7% des Revenues > 2 Billions FCFA

5 Executive Summary Activités de l’Aéroport de Pointe-Noire (en 2000) –Mouvements22.028 –Passagers357.511 –Fret (Tons)63.314 Investissement Initial 19.950.000 USD Coûts de Développement500.000 USD / An Revenues Net *3,055.940 USD Dépenses2.400.000 USD Bénéfices Net (*)(**) 511 633 USD * 1 ère Année ** Disponible pour les Investisseurs

6 Executive Summary Hypotheses pour le Cash Flow Scénario Pessimiste – Bénéfice Net 1 ère Année: 500.000 USD –Croissance: 10% Premières 3 Ans; 4.5% par la Suite –Taux d’Internet: 4.75% Scénario Moyen – Bénéfice Net 1 ère Année: 1.000.000 USD –Croissance: 20% Premières 3 Ans; 6.5% par la Suite –Taux d’Internet: 6.75% Scénario Optimiste – Bénéfice Net 1 ère Année: 1.000.000 USD –Croissance: 25% Premières 3 Ans; 6.5% par la Suite –Taux d’Internet: 8.75%

7 Executive Summary Retour sur Investissement (ROI) Scénario Pessimiste –Impossibilité d’Amortire Scénario Moyen –ROI en 19 Ans Scénario Optimiste –ROI en 17 Ans

8 ADP-N Shareholdings Congolese Government: 22% Private Investors: 78% –Congolese Partners: 26% – International Partners: 52%

9 Initial Investments Following Study by LR Group in cooperation with Congo: –Concept, Researches, Experts, … –Meetings with Government Officials, Investors, Airlines … The Initial Scope of the Investment is: –New International Terminal (6200 m2) –Zone Development –Improving Old Terminal –Cargo Terminal –Expropriation

10 Initial Investment (2)

11 Initial Investment (3)

12 Development Costs Starting Year n+1 Developments of: –Trade Free Zones –Aircraft Maintenance Area –Cargo Areas and Shops –Land Side Commerce –Access roads in the Airport –Airport Environment Systems: –Advanced Telecommunication systems –Back-up Power Supply Additional Buildings –Catering (Aircraft Services), Offices, Commerce, Etc. Total: $0.5M / Year (Up to 20% of Net Profit)

13 Revenues - Table of Content Airlines Operating in Pointe-Noire Historical Traffic Statistics –Landings –Passengers (National, Regional, Int’l) –Cargo (National, Regional, Int’l) The Revenues Sources Annual Income/Revenues

14 Airlines Operating in PNR in 2000 CONPANYTYPE OF A/CDESTINATION Air Afrique737/300; 727/100,200International Trans Air Benin737/300International Lina Congo737/300, 727/100, 200 Antonov 11 International / national Air Gabon737/300International Angola Airlines737/300International Aero Service727/100International Trance Air Congo 727/200Naional Air Espace737/300National Air Atlantis727/100National Sources: Experts Mission to PNR October. 2000

15 Historical Statistics Landings – Year 2000 MOTW/TONTYPE/AC NO OF LANDING PER WEEK TYPE OF MOVMT 3Cesna 402, BN 201National 5Cesna 4046National 8Kaza 12 (Fernch Army))12National 22Antonov 2454National 90% Int'l 10% 54B 737/20025 30% National 70% Int'l 6161Antonov 12 cargo14National 64Antonov 116Int'l 69B 737/3006Int'l 79B 727/10018National 96B 727/20020National Total Landing 162 per week of which 137 national presenting 85% of total landing and 25 international – 15% Sources: Experts Mission to PNR October. 2000

16 Historical Statistics – Passengers National Traffic 1999/2000 1 st Quarter (Jan. to March) PAX Variation %RepartitionIn % Company199920001999/200019992000 Lina Congo012,0270016.6 Trans Air Congo24,23435,53146.649.349.0 Aero Service8,71022,335156.417.730.8 Air Espace5,2951,066(80 - )10.81.5 Equaflight10,4270(100 - )21.20 Others4881,544216.41.02.1 Total49,15472, 50347.5100 Sources: Experts Mission to PNR October. 2000

17 Historical Statistics – Passengers National Traffic 1999/2000 2nd Quarter (April. to June) PAX %VariationRepartition %In Company199920001999/200019992000 Lina Congo06,5120010.5 Trans Air Congo36,62 6 40,28110.066.065.0 Aero Service10,48 2 12,71221.0318.0920.5 Air Espace4,5660100 -8.20 Equaflight3,6750100 -6.60 Air Atlatis01,56400205 Others161856431.70.3104 Total55,51 2 61,92511.6100 Sources: Experts Mission to PNR October. 2000

18 Historical Statistics – Passengers National Traffic 1999/2000 3rd Quarter (July to Sep.) PAX %VariationRepartition %In Company199920001999/200019992000 Lina Congo017,7090017.5 Trans Air Congo51,64 9 54,0734.769.853.04 Air Espace19,98 5 19,485(2.50- )27.019.02 Equaflight2,2770(- 100)3.10 Air Atlatis05000 Others7310,07913,706.80.19.9 Total73,98 4 10,135137.0100 Sources: Experts Mission to PNR October. 2000

19 Historical Statistics – Passengers (National Traffic) 1999 / 2000 (Per Year) Total National Passengers in 1999* : 238,200 Passengers (in & out) Total National Passengers in 2000* : 314,373 Passengers (in & out) * 4 th Quarter = average of 3 quarters Sources: Experts Mission to PNR October. 2000

20 Historical Statistics – Passengers (Regional Traffic) 1 st Quarter 1999/2000 PAX %VariationRepartitio n %In Company199920001999/200019992000 Air Gabon250183(26.8-)28.222.2 Angola Air5851(12.1-)6.66.2 Lina Congo2592850.00.27.2 Aero Service242194(19.8-)27.323.5 Others3333371.237.6-40.9 Total8858246.9100 Sources: Experts Mission to PNR October. 2000

21 Historical Statistics – Passengers (Regional) 2nd Quarter 1999/2000 PAX %VariationRepartitio n In Company199920001999/200019992000 Air Gabon8,8737,731(-12.9)82.570.5 Angola Air1,4001,93238.013.017.6 Lina Congo0740006.7 Aero Service34753955.33.24.9 Others12926(-79.8)1.20.2 Total10,74910,9682.04100 Sources: Experts Mission to PNR October. 2000

22 Historical Statistics – Passengers (Regional Traffic) 3rd Quarter CompanyPAX.PAXVariation % Repartitio n In % 199920002000/199919992000 Air Gabon9,3387,280(-22)80.061.7 Angola Air18381192(-35.1)15.710.1 Lina Congo023950020.3 Aero Service42662747.23.65.3 Other70303332.90.62.6 Total11,67211,7971.07100 Sources: Experts Mission to PNR October. 2000

23 Historical Statistics – Passengers (Regional Traffic) 1999 / 2000 (Per Year) Total Regional Passengers in 1999* : 31.074 Passengers (in & out) Total Regional Passengers in 2000* : 31.461 Passengers (in & out) * 4 th Quarter = average of 3 quarters Sources: Experts Mission to PNR October. 2000

24 PAX %VariationRepartition%In Company199920001999/200019992000 Air Afrique86863983(54.1-)100 Total86863983(54.1-)100 1 st Quarter PAX %VariationRepartition%In Company199920001999/200019992000 Air Afrique62713984(37.0-)100 Total62713984(37.0-)100 2nd Quarter PAX RepartitionVariation % In % Company199920001999/200019992000 Air Afrique87496248(28.6-)10075.4 Lina Congo011440013.8 Trans Air Benin08990010.8 Total87498291(5.2-)100 3 rd Quarter Historical Statistics – Passengers (International) By Quarters 1999/2000 Sources: Experts Mission to PNR October. 2000

25 Historical Statistics – Passengers (International) 1999/2000 (Per Year) Total International Passengers in 1999* : 31.608 Passengers (in & out) Total International Passengers in 2000* : 11.677 Passengers (in & out) * 4 th Quarter = average of 3 quarters Sources: Experts Mission to PNR October. 2000

26 Historical Statistics Total 1999 / 2000 (Per Year) Movements, Passengers, Cargo Type 19992000VARIATION % 2000/1999 Movements18,45022,02819.3 Passengers300,882357,51118.8 Fret (Tons)71,39463,306(8.60- ) Poste (Tons)8 Sources: Experts Mission to PNR October. 2000

27 Annual Revenue First year of Operation The estimated revenue in the first year of operation include: –The actual level of activity combine with –New commercial development by LR Group The estimation is done on the bases of statistical data from year 2000.

28 Annual Revenue Sources– First Year Estimation* * Based on 2000 statistics F CFA Revenues from Passenger Taxes Fees –Passenger Departure (National): 157.186 X 3..500 F CFA……..550.151.000 –Passenger Departure (International): 21.569 X 12.400 F CFA….267.455.600 Revenues from Landing Fees –National Landings according to average of 54 MTOW Tones 85% of 22.028 Movements: 2 X 67.210 F CFA…………………. 629.213.299 –International Landings according to average of 54 MTOW Tones 15% of 22.028 Monuments: 2 X 80.330 F CFA………………….. 132.713.193 Cargo Fees –63.306.000 X 20 F CFA…………1.266.120.000 –Consequence of Train Renewal Operations (60% of above)….759.672.000 Aircraft Parking Fees –22.028 Movements: 2 X 1.5h above 2 first hours X 22 X 120 F CFA43.615.440 Gasoline Passage Fees –22.028 movements: 2 X 5.000 galloons X 1.36 F CFA…………..74.895.200 Sources: Experts Mission to PNR October. 2000

29 Annual Revenue – First Year Estimation* * Based on 2000 statistics Total Fees Revenues:2.458.715.732 F CFA Total Commercial Revenues: 12.720.000 F CFA Total in USD:3.251.000 Sources: Experts Mission to PNR October. 2000

30 Operational Expenses Organization Chart

31 Operational Expenses Salaries (BOT Conditions)75.000 USD –75 Congolese Employees –Social security, Medical care, Social Allocations Services & Sub-Contractors80.000 USD –Electricity, Water, Telecommunication –Airport Services Management Expenses25.000 USD Consumables & Small Investments 20.000 USD Monthly Summary Expenses Annual Summary Expenses2.400.000 USD

32 Annual Profit – 1 st Year Assumptions (BOT Conditions) –Congo Government Part22% –Contribution for Secondary Airports Development 5% from Income < 2 Billions F CFA 7% from Income > 2 Billions F CFA »Average: 6% Gross Revenues3.251.000 USD Net Revenues 3.251.000 X 94% 3.055.940 USD Expenses2.400.000 USD Profits 3.055.940 – 2.400.000 655.940 USD Net Profits* 655.940 X 78% 511 633.200 USD * Available for Investors

33 Cash Flow Assumptions –Revenues Increases New Runway 2600m / 45m + Tarmac & TW (Summer 2002) LR Group Management Experience –Expenses Control –Profits Sharing Pessimistic Scenario Medium Scenario Optimistic Scenario

34 Cash Flow – Pessimistic Scenario Assumptions 1.LR investment in BOT contract grew from 15 M USD to 19,75 M USD due to the increase of the terminal from 3.000 M2 to 6.200 M2. 2.There were major changes from the original 1999 forecast: a) International traffic goes now to Brazzaville and already now traffic is 54% less than 1999 b) Train line Pointe Noire- Brazzaville will dramatically reduce Cargo traffic. 3.Net Profit is calculated after payment of "concession fees" in any form to Congo. 4.4.5% is the International general aviation rate of growth 5.10% rate of growth for 3 years upon operating the new Terminal and the extended runway. 6.8.75% is the best finance rate that can be achieved for investments in Africa without any risk premium. Nevertheless, we are applying 4.75%. 7.Any additional investment will require extension of the concession period in order to recover it.

35 Cash Flow – Pessimistic Scenario

36 Cash Flow – Medium Scenario Assumptions 1.LR investment in BOT contract grew from 15 M USD to 19,75M USD due to the increase of the terminal from 3.000 M2 to 6.200 M2. 2.Although there were major changes from the original 1999 forecast, we believe that with LR management the level of the nominal income of 1999 will be kept as a basis for 2000 and onwards. 3.Net Profit is calculated after payment of "concession fees" in any form to Congo. 4.LR management will achieve a higher rate of growth than the international aviation rate. 5.20% rate of growth for 3 years upon operating the new Terminal and the extended runway. 6.8.75% is the best finance rate that can be achieved for investments in Africa without any risk premium. Nevertheless, we are applying 6.75%. 7.Any additional investment will require extension of the concession period in order to recover it.

37 Cash Flow – Medium Scenario

38 Cash Flow – Optimistic Scenario Assumptions 1.LR investment in BOT contract grew from 15 M USD to 19,75 M USD due to the increase of the terminal from 3.000 M2 to 6.200 M2. 2.Although there were major changes from the original 1999 forecast, we believe that with LR management the level of the nominal income of 1999 will be kept as a basis for 2000 and onwards. 3.Net Profit is calculated after payment of "concession fees" in any form to Congo. 4.LR management will achieve a higher rate of growth than the international aviation rate. 5.25% rate of growth for 3 years upon operating the new Terminal and the extended runway. 6.8.75% is the best finance rate that can be achieved for investments in Africa without any risk premium. 7.Any additional investment will require extension of the concession period in order to recover it.

39 Cash Flow – Optimistic Scenario

40 Cash Flow – Present value Chart Data

41 ROI – Summery Chart

42 ROI As Seen in the Cash Flow Tables and Chart, The Break Even Period is: Pessimistic Scenario.……. >> Years Medium Scenario…………….19 Years Optimistic Scenario…………..17 Years

43 Appendix 1 Historical Statistics 2000/2001 International Movements 1 st Semester CompanyMovements Variation % Repartition In % 200020012001/200020002001 Air Afrique234227-6.5810057.3 Trans Air Benin0102 10026.4 Lina Congo063 16.3 Total24339261.31100

44 Appendix 1 (2) Historical Statistics 2000/2001 Regional Movements 1 st Semester CompanyMovements Variation % Repartition In % 200020012001/200020002001 Air Gabon42750418.032519.5 Angola Air (TAAG)11119272.976.57.4 Lina Congo18311-93.9810.70.4 Aero Service33248345.4819.418.7 Other6551395112.9738.454 Total1.7082.58551.34100

45 Appendix 1 (3) Historical Statistics - 2000/2001 National Movements 1 st Semester CompanyMovements Variation % Repartition In % 200020012001/200020002001 Lina Congo67976712.967.410.7 T.A.C37881982-47.6741.327.7 Aero Service172018215.8718.725.5 Equaflight6020 6.60 Air Atlantis360212-41.113.93 A.A.C.0332 04.6 Others202620370.5422.128.5 Total9.1757.151-22.05100

46 Appendix 1 (4) Historical Statistics 2000/2001 International Passengers 1 st Semester CompanyPAX Variati on % Repartition In % 200020012001/200020002001 Air Afrique79316716-15.3110051.3 Trans Air Benin05251 040.2 Lina Congo01099 08.4 Total7.93113.06664.74100

47 Appendix 1 (5) Historical Statistics - 2000/2001 Regional Passengers 1 st Semester CompanyMovements Variation % Repartition In % 200020012001/200020002001 Air Gabon138511767827.6264.566.6 Angola Air (TAAG)3479530352.4216.220 Lina Congo2703323-88.0512.61.2 Aero Service1067815-23.614.73 Other3752436549.61.79.2 Total21.47526.55523.65100

48 Appendix 1 (6) Historical Statistics - 2000/2001 National Passengers 1 st Semester CompanyMovements Variation % Repartition In % 200020012001/200020002001 Lina Congo185392442931.7713.816.3 T.A.C7581270070-7.5756.446.9 Aero Service3504734561-1.3826.123.1 Air Espace10660 0.80 Air Atlantis15645107226.531.13.4 A.A.C.013945 09.3 Others24001447-39.71.81 Total134.428149.55911.25100

49 Appendix 1 (7) Historical Statistics 2000/2001 International Cargo 1 st Semester CompanyMovements Variation % Repartition In % 200020012001/200020002001 Air Afrique530268-49.43100 Total530268-49.43100

50 Appendix 1 (8) Historical Statistics 2000/2001 Regional Cargo 1 st Semester CompanyMovements Variation % Repartition In % 200020012001/200020002001 Air Gabon59574925.8879.873 Angola Air (TAAG)6349-22.228.44.8 Lina Congo07 00.7 Others88221151.1311.821.5 Total746102637.53100

51 Appendix 1 (9) Historical Statistics 2000/2001 National Cargo 1 st Semester CompanyMovements Variation % Repartition In % 200020012001/200020002001 Lina Congo328282-14.021.12.1 T.A.C14.3683766-73.7847.327.6 Aero Service18701070-42.786.27.8 Equaflight32250 10.60 A.A.C.064 00.5 Others105748457-20.0234.862 Total30.36513.639-55.08100

52 Appendix 1 (10) Historical Statistics Total Movements, Passengers, Cargo 1 st Semester 2000 / 2001 Type 20002001VARIATION % 2000/2001 Movements 11.126 10.122-9.02 Passengers163.834189.18015.47 Fret (Tons)21.64114.933-30.99 Poste (Tons) 49125


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