Presentation on theme: "Modelling marine populations – from physics to evolution A Nordic Marine Academy Course held 10 – 16 October 2005 at Espegrend Field Station, Bergen, Norway."— Presentation transcript:
Modelling marine populations – from physics to evolution A Nordic Marine Academy Course held 10 – 16 October 2005 at Espegrend Field Station, Bergen, Norway
The oceans are changing Marine ecosystems are commonly perceived as mechanical systems. Perturbations are reversible. Species and interactions are constant. Regression analysis can predict the future.Time?
However… Physical conditions go beyond historic ranges. Pollutants stress organisms. Ecocystems are qualitatively different. Depleted stock are not recovering. Worm, B. and Myers, R.A. 2003. Meta-analysis of cod-shrimp interactions reveals top-down control in oceanic food webs. Ecology, 84, 162-173. Levitus, S., Antonov, J.I., Boyer, T.P., Stephens, C. 2000. Warming of the World Ocean. Science, 287, 2225-2229. Heat content in upper 3000 m.
Several equilibria - also unstable ones. Hysteresis – development may follow alternative trajectories. Irreversibility?
Regime shifts Scheffer, M., Carpenter, S., Foley, J.A., Folke, C., and Walker, B. 2001. Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Nature, 413, 591-596.
Altered ecosystem structure: Kelp forests Before humans With humans
Estuaries Before humans With humans Jackson, J.B.C. et al. 2001. Historical overfishing and the recent collapse of coastal ecosystems. Science, 293, 629-637.
Marine ecosystems are increasingly dominated by human intervention Climate change, pollution, habitat destruction, fisheries… BUT: will mechanisms also change? Can we build a predictive science –through understanding mechanisms, –and how they scale from physics to evolution?
Physical forcing Light,temperature,turbulence,turbidity,salinity,pH… Individual state Age,sex,size, energy reserves, position… Trade-offs emerge A population is a collection of individuals and their actions Patterns emerge Evolution emerges
Physical forcing Individual state Trade-offs emerge A population is a collection of individuals and their actions Patterns emerge Evolution emerges Helge Drange Christoph Heinze Andy Visser Per Jonsson Øyvind Fiksen Christian Jørgensen Geir Huse Espen Strand Ulf Dieckmann Bruno Ernande Mikko Heino, Bruno Ernande, Ulf Dieckmann, Erin Dunlop
Discussion topics The trade-off between simplicity and complexity in models. Proximate mechanisms and ultimate causes – alternative or overlapping ways of explaining biology?
Student presentations Monday: Oceanography, biogeochemical cycles, and phytoplankton Kristine Skovgaard Madsen Ingrid H. Ellingsen Cecilie Hansen Olivia Langhamer Inga Hense Elin Lindehoff Wanderson Fernandes de Carvalho
Student presentations Tuesday: Zooplankton Agurtzane Urtizberea Øystein Varpe Paolo Simonelli Thomas Torgersen
Student presentations Wednesday: Coexistence and speciation Martin Pedersen Sarah Robinson Wolrath Raul Primicerio Sigrunn Eliassen Varvara Fazalova Guðni Magnús Eiríksson Jostein Starrfelt Jan Heuschele
Student presentations Thursday: Fish early life stages and recruitment Krzysztof Świtek Frode Bendixen Vikebø Trond Kristiansen Tian Ivo Orellana Gert Virenfeldt Päivi Laine Jónas Páll Jónasson Kjersti Eline Larsen
Student presentations Saturday: Fisheries-induced evolution Davnah Urbach Paul Venturelli Anne Maria Eikeset Shahaama Abdul Sattar Karin Nilsson Dorothy Dankel Geir Halnes Erin Dunlop
Administrative information Travel costs. Course diploma. Lock office building from dinner starts until breakfast is over. Please be quiet after midnight. Computers: –Computer room with printer. –Internet in rooms. Discuss, discuss, discuss!
Social information Food: –Allergies, vegetarians… –Snack when you like! –…but help us keep the kitchen tidy. Soda, beer, and wine. Sauna (and swimming). Evening in Bergen. Shops… Shop