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Trends and Foresight Report 4 Childhood and Education Prepared for Big Lottery Fund September 2014.

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1 Trends and Foresight Report 4 Childhood and Education Prepared for Big Lottery Fund September 2014

2 Introduction to the report This is the fourth report produced to support the Fund identify areas of emerging need in the UK This report focuses on the broad topic of Education, including the rise in student numbers and strain on primary school places, attainment gaps in gender, ethnicity and regional differences, as well as exploring the opportunities available to 16 year olds at the end of compulsory education and the impact on young peoples lives, including wellbeing Throughout the report we have focused on areas where the Fund can support existing services, rather than making up for shortfalls in public spending or service provision

3 Key statistics By 2018 we will have a shortfall of nearly 500,000 school places – with nearly a quarter of these in London Boys begin to lag behind girls from the age of 5, which is reflected in their numeracy and literacy skills and continues to be present throughout their entire education Chinese students are the highest achieving ethnic group, whilst pupils from a black background remain the lowest performing group (although they have shown the largest improvement) The cost of raising a child (until 21 years of age) has doubled over the last decade, with families in the South West seeing the biggest rise (78%) Contrary to popular belief, there is no evidence to suggest that pupils whose parents have low academic qualifications have lower aspirations than others Evidence suggests that those who decide to leave full time education at 16 are more likely to become NEET, which is believed to result in higher chances of unemployment later in life

4 SCHOOL CHILDREN & PLACES

5 Summary Following a mini baby boom in the late 1990s and early 2000s, more children are of schooling age than in previous years This rise in the number of children has been matched by a decreasing number of schools It is believed that by 2018 we will have a shortfall of nearly 500,000 school places – with nearly a quarter of these in London The UK has one of the highest pupil-teacher ratios in the OECD, despite a recent decline Almost three-quarters of all teachers being female, which can be disadvantageous for boys. Being taught by the opposite gender can have an adverse effect on the educational attainment of both boys and girls Pupils in urban areas – notably London, Manchester and Birmingham – are amongst the highest performing in the country, whilst rural areas have the lowest rates of teenagers finishing school with basic qualifications

6 Mini baby boom of early 2000s UK Age Structure 2004UK Age Structure 2014 Source: ONS This recent rise in the birth rate, combined with the effects of immigration, is adding pressure on schools as these children are now of school age

7 Rising demand for schools… Source: ONS Rising demand for primary places has been put down to a 17 per cent increase in birth rates nationally since This will see increased demand for school places currently at odds with the capacity of schools in the UK – meaning that for many areas (especially those with the highest rates of growth) the supply of places may not meet demand

8 … and fewer schools Source: Department for Education; Welsh Government; Scottish Government; Northern Ireland Department of Education There has been a steady decline in the number of schools in recent years

9 Despite vast increase in public expenditure on education Despite consistent increases in the % of GDP being spent on education after 1998, this has declined since 2010 Although the education systems in England and Wales are similar, data from the Welsh Assembly Government show that there are differences in expenditure per pupil Source: ONS

10 Super Sized Primary Schools Official figures suggest that by the year 2015 there will be a shortfall of 240,000 primary school places The number of five to seven- year-olds in classes of more than 30 – the legal limit, except in exceptional circumstances – has more than doubled in just four years Number of infants in classes of more than 30 (NE England) AuthorityJan 2010Jan 2014Change Country Durham % Darlington % Gateshead % Hartlepool % Middlesbrough Newcastle % Redcar & Cleveland031-- South Tyneside % Stockton % Sunderland ,413% North Yorkshire3141, % York % TOTAL1,5424, % Source: Telegraph & Angus, 2014

11 Growth in number of pupils Source: DfE +6.95% +1.72% +2.61% (NI) Reduction in number of schools since % -1.24% -0.77% -1.17% +2.61% (Wales)

12 School Place Challenge Nationally, local authorities will need to build 497,000 places by 2018 John Howson, a research fellow at Oxford University’s education department, described the shortage of primary places as the ‘biggest problem’ facing the school system The DfE allocating £5bn of funding by 2015 in order to create new school places over this parliament – double the amount allocated by the previous government London alone accounts for 27% of the national shortfall Shortfall as percentage of current capacity by Region Source: Do the Maths, London Councils, 2014

13 Growth in pupil numbers – London The recent baby boom has meant that school-age populations (5-19) within the capital grew by 107,000 from – a growth rate of 8.2% compared to an overall reduction nationally of 0.2%. This pressure continues to grow, with forecasts showing that the pupil growth rate in London over the six years from 2012/13 is twice that of any other region and by 2017/18 pupil numbers in London are expected to have increased by 18%, or 194,000. Within this, some boroughs are forecasting growth of up to 36% Source: Do the Maths, London Councils, 2014

14 Class size and Educational attainment Smaller ClassesLarger Classes More time when individual pupils are the focus of a teacher’s attention More time spent by pupils interacting with each other More active interaction between pupils and teachers More time spent by teachers directly teaching the substantive context of the knowledge More pupil engagement, particularly for pupils attaining at lower levels More time spent on non-teaching tasks like procedural talk and taking the register For Years 1 to 6, there was no significant link between class size in a given year and educational progress in literacy or mathematics, other than larger classes being associated with greater literacy progress in Year 6 There is very little evidence on the importance of class size on secondary school attainment Source: DfE, 2011 The evidence on class size and class room processes suggests key features (good and bad) of smaller and larger classes are as follows:

15 Higher Pupil-Teacher Ratio Decline in Student-Teacher Ratio in UK Schools in recent years… … But still largest in recent International comparison Compared with other OECD countries, the UK has the highest student-teacher ratios in primary and secondary education in Students per teacher in Primary schools (compared with the OECD average of 15 students per teacher) And 16 students per teacher in secondary schools (compared to the OECD average of 13 students per teacher) Source: ONS, OECD Education at a Glance 2014 Pupil to teacher ratio is calculated by dividing the number of full-time equivalent pupils who attend a school by the number of full-time equivalent teachers in the school. A low pupil to teacher ratio is often used as a selling point to those choosing a school.

16 Feminisation of classroom In the UK, 90% of all primary school teachers and 75% of secondary school teachers are female Regardless of the academic subject, when a class is taught by a woman, boys are twice as likely as girls to be seen as disruptive, inattentive and unlikely to complete their homework When a class is headed by a male teacher, on the other hand, girls are more likely to report that they did not look forward to a subject, whilst boys are better off when taught by men. Adverse gender effects have an impact on both boys and girls, but that effect is greater on boys, simply because most teachers are women Source: OECD Education at a Glance 2014; Stanford research (applied to UK)

17 GENDER ATTAINMENT GAP

18 Summary Boys begin to lag behind girls from the age of 5, which is reflected in their numeracy and literacy skills and continues to be present throughout their entire education Gender attainment gap is largest in Northern Ireland, where boys performance is a third less than that of girls However, this gap also appears to be closing, as boys’ performance at GCSEs is improving faster than the rate of girls Analysis of Understanding Society data has shown that boys’ attitudes towards doing well at school are increasing at a faster rate than that of girls and thus appearing to close the gender gap

19 Reading and Literacy The Boy’s Reading Commission has found that boys’ underachievement in reading can be associated with: The home and family environment – Girls are more likely to be brought books and taken to the library, with mothers more likely to support and role model reading The school environment – Teachers may have limited knowledge of contemporary and attractive texts for boys and where boys may not be given the right opportunity to develop their identity as reading through experiencing reading as enjoyment Male gender identities which do not value learning and reading as a mark of success Only one in four boys reads outside of class every day Source: National Literacy Trust, 2012

20 Girls have better reading results than boys Boys begin to lag behind girls by the age of five, with past research blaming the "gender gap" on biological differences, different learning styles, teachers' attitudes, a lack of male role models and even the "feminisation” of the classroom The evidence suggests that the gap is not simply a result of how schools teach children to read Girls not only outperform boys in reading tests, they are also more engaged with reading than boys at very many levels There is a specific danger that a predominantly female workforce will unconsciously privilege texts that are more attractive to girls. Source: Literacy Trust, 2012

21 More than 1 in 4 exams taken by girls this year scored top grades – for boys it was less than 1 in 5 Almost one in 10 exams taken by girls, 9.1%, was graded an A*. This compares with 6.4 % of boys' exams Source: ONS, 2014

22 Different Aspirations Even though gender differences are small they are statistically significant, and girls have more positive attitudes than boys at the same time, boys’ attitudes towards doing well at school are high, and are increasing faster than that of girls, thus appearing to close the gender gap faster Source: BHPS ; Understanding Society,

23 ETHNIC ATTAINMENT GAP

24 Summary Chinese students are the highest achieving ethnic group, whilst pupils from a black background remain the lowest performing group Despite this, pupils from a black background are showing the largest improvements on a year-on-year basis The ethnic attainment gap is greatly affected by language. Children from different ethnic backgrounds are less likely to begin school speaking English as a native language. As they progress through school – and their English improves, the gap closes White boys from a less advantaged background are the worst performing group, with only 28% achieving good results at GCSE, compared with 62% for Indian pupils

25 Attainment gap: Ethnicity Ethnic achievement gaps at age 14 are more than three times the size of the gender gap, although only about one-third of the size of the social class gap. Socio-economic status can account for the Black African, Pakistani and Bangladeshi achievement gaps, although these groups still underachieve given their high motivation and commitment. Socio-economic status could not account for the Black - Caribbean achievement gap and they were the only ethnic group to make less progress aged than White British students. Source: British Education Research Association

26 Chinese Students remain the highest attaining ethnic group… …whilst pupils from a black background remain the lowest performing group, although they have shown the largest improvement National Average: 58.2% Source: ONS

27 Case Study: Government reforms aid attainment among black pupils Black pupils have for several years been the lowest-performing ethnic group in England’s schools - but official statistics show that since 2010 the gap between their results and other pupils’ has narrowed in both primary school tests and GCSEs, and that they have achieved the largest improvements of children from any background Nationally, 58.1% of black pupils achieved 5 or more GCSEs at C or better including English and maths last year. That represented the biggest increase of any ethnic group from 2012 (up 3.5%) and from 2010 (up 8.8%); The national average is 60.6% It means the gap between black pupils’ and all pupils’ GCSE results has more than halved in just 4 years and is now just 2.5% Source: DfE, Statistical release, Jan 2014

28 Ethnicity and language barrier Children from different ethnic backgrounds are less likely to begin school speaking English as a native language. As they progress through school – and their English improves, the gap closes With the exception of Indian and Chinese pupils, ethnic minority pupils are substantially more likely to be in poverty, which we proxy with a variable measuring eligibility for free school lunches. The inclusion of this variable likewise reduces ethnic minority attainment gaps substantially. However, poverty cannot explain why ethnic minority pupils make greater progress than white British pupils Ethnic Minorities in Primary and Secondary Schools Source: Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration, Educational Achievement and Ethnicity, 2008

29 English as Additional Language Source: National Association for language development in the Curriculum, 2013 In 2013 the attainment data showed an enduring difference in attainment between bilingual pupils and their English speaking peers

30 Underperforming White Pupils “Poor white British children now come out of our schools with worse qualifications than equally poor children in any major ethnic group” – Graham Stuart, Chair of Education Committee White children who are eligible for free school meals are consistently the lowest performing group in the country. The gap exists at age five and widens as children get older. It was also found that these pupils spent fewer evenings each week doing their homework and were more likely to play truant than children from many other ethnic groups. Source: BBC, 2014

31 FREE SCHOOL MEALS

32 Summary Free School Meals (FSM) can be used as an indicator for deprivation, however it is imperfect as it fails to pick up all students who experience deprivation – nevertheless, it remains the best indicator to link poverty/deprivation and educational attainment or experience at school Students eligible for FSM achieve lower GCSEs than those who are not eligible; this is due to a number of reasons, including (but not limited to) a less advantageous environment at home, different values, attitudes and behaviours towards school and education A quarter of all students in Northern Ireland (25%) and just over a fifth (21%) in England are eligible for FSM

33 Free School Meals Free School Meals is a binary measure (pupils are either eligible for it, or they are not) and it is an imperfect indicator of deprivation, because it does not pick up all pupils who experience deprivation. Source: DfE; Department for Children, Schools and Families, 2014

34 Under registration Local AuthorityPupils entitled to FSM as proportion of all pupils Pupils claiming FSM as proportion of all pupils North East23% North West22%20% Yorkshire and the Humber21%19% East Midlands19%16% West Midlands22%21% East of England17%14% London29%25% South East16%13% South West16%13% England21%18% Northern Ireland25%Not available Source: DfE, Statistical release 2014 Stigma has always been considered to be a key factor in limiting registration for free school meals. Parents may not want the school knowing their family circumstances, or be concerned that other families/pupils will find out that they are receiving FSM.

35 Children growing up in poorer families emerge from school with substantially lower levels of educational attainment Poorer children experience much less advantageous environments at home than children from better-off backgrounds These differences in environment have a strong association with poor children’s lower cognitive development and early childhood, and progressively poorer academic attainment throughout school A quarter of the gap in GCSE results between children from rich and poor families is associated with these differences in attitudes, beliefs and behaviours Source: Joseph Rowntree Foundati on 2010 (Poorer children’s educational attainment: how important are attitudes and behaviour?)

36 The gap remains the same The proportion of both groups achieving benchmark results has risen in recent years, by the same amount, meaning that progress made by poorer children has not been enough to close the attainment gap Source: DfE, GCSE & equivalent attainment by pupil characteristics in England 2013/14

37 REGIONAL DIFFERENCES

38 Summary Pupils in urban areas – notably London, Manchester and Birmingham – are amongst the highest performing in the country, whilst rural areas have the lowest rates of teenagers finishing school with basic qualifications This is reflected in rural pupils achieving lower results in reading than their urban counterparts Whilst levels of attainment for GCSEs have improved in all regions, there remain large differences Contrary to what was the case only a few decades ago, urban areas are now outperforming their rural counterparts, notably the less populous regions of the country, particularly down the East and South-East of England

39 Rural Urban Gap Pupils from rural areas are now among the lowest scoring teenagers in the country. Rural areas have the lowest rates of teenagers finishing school with basic qualifications, including Somerset, Norfolk and Rutland In Somerset, only 28% of pupils get five good GCSEs, and in Devon and Norfolk only 36%. Source: The Guardian, 2009

40 Urban areas out-performing Rural areas Percentage of pupils achieving 5+ A*-C grades at GCSEs, based on location of School (England) Children living in poverty in some rural areas have lower standards of reading than their counterparts in cities. Policymakers may need to rethink their tendency to focus much of their attention on inner city deprivation following the result, as deprived children in the countryside can face extra disadvantages which are felt less strongly in England's urban centres. Source: ONS, 2014

41 Overall improvements across all regions... Source: Ofsted, 2013 Levels of attainment at GCSE have improved across all areas of the country... But there remain noticeable variations in the proportion of pupils reaching national benchmarks across the different regions

42 ... and the distribution of underachievement has shifted Twenty or thirty years ago, the problems were in the big cities. Inner London schools were the best funded and worst achieving in the country Now, schools in inner and outer London are the best performing, and performance in parts of Birmingham, Greater Manchester, Liverpool and Leicester has also improved. The areas where the most disadvantaged children are being let down by the education system in 2014 are no longer deprived inner city areas, instead the focus has shifted to deprived coastal towns and rural, less populous regions of the country, particularly down the East and South-East of England Government schemes such as the Excellence in Cities programme and Sure Start – which were both launched in the early years of the Labour government – had often tended to direct attention and resources towards improving education and childcare for children in the inner cities. But these results suggested focus should also be directed at the effects of rural poverty. Source: IOE.co.uk

43 Regional Differences Nationally, 81% of pupils sitting Key Stage 4 examinations lived in Urban areas, with only 10% living in rural Villages, Hamlets & Isolated Dwellings. For the regions around London, highest KS4 attainment appeared to be found in local authorities closest to London, while those further away showed lower KS4 attainment. Isolated areas of high attainment (over 65%) were also found in other urban areas in England as well as in some rural areas. In Scotland, Aberdeenshire, East Dunbartonshire, Shetland Islands, Orkney Islands and East Renfrewshire all achieved 65% or more pupils attaining 5 or more Standard Grades at level 1 to 3 and equivalent National Qualifications in 2006/07. Source: ONS

44 School Readiness Prof Martin Marmot, a leading authority on public health and social inequalities, said these are worrying signs for the future of health and wellbeing of the country Source: The Independent, 2014 Nearly half of all 5 year olds in England have not reached a high enough level of intellectual, emotional and physical development to prepare them for school

45 Lessons from London The quality of education in London and pupils’ outcomes have been transformed in recent years London Challenge was established in 2003 to improve outcomes in low-performing secondary schools in the capital. Primary schools were included in the scheme from In its 2010 evaluation of London Challenge, Ofsted noted that: ‘London Challenge has continued to improve outcomes for pupils in London’s primary and secondary schools at a faster rate than nationally. London’s secondary schools continue to perform better than those in the rest of England Four key school improvement interventions provided the impetus for improvement – London Challenge, Teach First, the academies programme and improved support from local authorities Seven key lessons from the success of London’s schools which could be applied throughout the UK: 1.Ensure that policy is based on hard evidence of effectiveness 2.Maintain a sustained and consistent policy momentum for change over time 3.Use performance data systematically to make the case for change 4.Transform underperforming schools through well-managed, sector-led school improvement activities 5.Develop an effective 'middle tier' to support sector-led improvement activity 6.Ensure that teaching is a career of choice for talented and idealistic recruits 7.Apply pressure for change through allowing market entry to new providers of education services Source: CfBT Education Trust, 2014

46 EMOTIONAL WELL BEING AND EDUCATION

47 Summary Emotional well-being is associated with better educational performance at both primary and secondary school levels Analysis of Understanding Society data shows a strong correlation with happiness (a core component of subjective wellbeing) and being bullied, which leads to variety of negative consequences, including lower academic achievements, increased absence levels for victims as well as social problems and anxiety Looked after children (i.e. those in care) are most likely to be affected by emotional instability and mental disorders, which are found to have negative effects on academic achievements – the attainment gap between looked after children achieving A*-C GCSEs has increased by 4.5% since 2009 The number of pupils with SEN decreased from 18.7% in 2013 to 17.9% in 2014 The 2011 census identified 175,000 young carers in the UK – they are found to have significantly lower educational attainment at GCSE level, the equivalent to nine grades lower overall than their peers and more likely to become NEETS

48 Components of child wellbeing within National Policies Every Child Matters (England) Getting it Right for Every Child (Scotland) National Set of Wellbeing Indicators (NI) Wellbeing Monitor (Wales) Being HealthyEvery child should be healthy Socio-demographics of children Physical and mental health Staying SafeEvery child should be safeChildren’s relationshipsA good start in Life Economic WellbeingEvery child should be achieving Children’s outcomes: -Education -Health and Social -Emotional & Behavioural Education, Training and Learning Enjoying & AchievingEvery child should be nurtured Forman and Informal supports Play and Leisure Making a positive contribution Every child should be active Rights and respect Every child should be respected Safe home and community Every child should be responsible Economic wellbeing Every child should be included Source: Childhood Wellbeing Research Centre, 2010 Children’s measures of school wellbeing have been found to be associated with academic progress in secondary school; better emotional wellbeing is associated with higher achievement in primary school

49 Child Poverty increases risk of mental ill health Source: Office for National Statistics, Mental Health of Children and Young People in Great Britain Approximately 15% of children experience mental health problems at the lowest income levels compared to 5% of children at the higher levels. Although no recent data is available, this research from 2004 clearly highlights the correlation between low income and low levels of wellbeing Percentage of children with a mental health disorder by parental income, England 2004

50 Whole School Approach The most positive evidence is for whole-school approaches implemented continuously for more than one year where the emphasis is on mental health promotion (as opposed to mental ill-health prevention) Programmes that aimed to improve children’s behaviour and were limited to the classroom were less likely to be effective Receiving help from a school-based rather than an external counselling service is perceived to be less stigmatising Children are more willing to use a school-based service, and parents who had refused referrals to external mental health specialists are more willing to allow their child to see the school counsellor Similarly, when an in-school counsellor is available, teachers are more likely to refer pupils for help Source: Mental Health Foundation

51 Emotional Wellbeing and Bullying Source: ONS, Understanding Society Youth Module, 2010 ( years old) Data from Understanding Society show that 85% of all children who reported that they had never been bullied at all selected the highest level of happiness with life in general, while nearly 55% of children who reported the lowest satisfaction with life in general had been bullied at least once in the last six months. Bullying has a number of negative consequences including increased absence levels for victims, lower academic achievements, anxiety and social problems.

52 Young People and Mental Disorders Prevalence of mental health disorders among 5-10 year olds looked after by local authorities : Scotland – 45% England – 45% Wales – 49% Comparing looked after children to private household children: Emotional Disorders: 14% vs 4% Conduct disorders: 44% vs 4% Hyperkinetic disorders: 11% vs 1% Any childhood mental disorder: 52% vs 8% Prevalence of mental disorders among 5-10 year olds looked after by local authorities Source: National Statistics Scotland, ONS, 2010

53 Attainment gap: looked after children Between 50% and 60% of all looked after children had some difficulty or experienced marked difficulty with either reading, mathematics or spelling as assessed by their teachers. Overall, 59% of all children were reported to be at least one year behind in their intellectual development. This comprised 41% of children who were one or two years behind and 19% who were three or more years below the level expected for their age Despite overall improvements, the attainment gap between looked after children has increased by 4.5% since Source: DfE Statistical release, 2014

54 Special Educational Needs or Disabilities The number of pupils with SEN decreased from 18.7% in 2013 to 17.9% in 2014 Boys are two and a half times more likely to have statements of SEN at primary schools and nearly three times more likely to have statements at secondary schools compared to girls Pupils with SEN are more than twice as likely to be eligible for FSM than those without SEN (29.1% compared to 13.4%) Black pupils are more likely and Chinese pupils are statistically least likely to have SEN Pupils with SEN over time, England Source: DfE, 2014

55 Young Carers in Focus Percentage of unpaid care provided by 5 to 17-year-olds: by sex in English regions and Wales, 2011 Young carers are children and young people under 18 and provides regular on-going care and emotional support to a family member who is physically or mentally ill, disabled or misuses substances The average age of a young carer is 12 The 2011 census identified 175,000 young carers in the UK Source: ONS; Bernardos, 2012

56 Young Carers in Focus Young carers are 1.5 times more likely than their peers to be from black, Asian or minority ethnic communities Young carers have significantly lower educational attainment at GCSE level, the equivalent to nine grades lower overall than their peers e.g. The difference between nine Bs and nine Cs Young carers are more likely than the national average to be not in education, employment or training (NEET) between the ages of 16 and 19 Age profile of young carers in the UK from the 2011 Census Source: The Children’s Society, 2014

57 The effect on young carers’ education and employment outcomes The additional responsibility of caring for others can result in young people missing out on school, which in turn is likely to affect longer term education and employment outcomes There is a one in three chance that a young carer in year 9 will become NEET between the ages of 16 and 19, compared to a one in four chance for those without caring responsibilities Source: The Children Society, 2014

58 PE, OBESITY AND HEALTHY MEALS

59 Summary Whilst obesity levels peaked in 2004, it still represents a huge problem Evidence suggests that obese and overweight children are less likely to enjoy physical education, as well as negative effect on mood, low self-esteem, and anxiety Children regularly participating in physical activity are linked to improved concentration and behaviour in the classroom and positive motor skill development

60 Obesity amongst School children Obesity among children peaked in 2004, but levels are still well above those in 1995 While the rate of increase in childhood obesity appears to be levelling off, it still represents a serious problem Many interventions to prevent obesity are aimed at children, but there can be a time lag before effects are seen In 2009, the Change4Life campaign was launched to raise awareness about diet and physical activity, and encourage families to “eat well, move more and live longer” The campaign includes providing information on diet and activity, and seeks to directly engage with parents Regulations governing food-based standards for school lunches were introduced from September 2006 Source: HSCIC, NAO Department of Health, 2013

61 Percentage of pupils taking part in at least three hours of PE and out of hours school sport Participation in Sports at Schools Physical benefits of physical activity in childhood include greater bone strength and positive movement skill development There is also evidence that physical activity is linked to better cognitive functioning There is evidence that physical activity has a positive effect on mental health in children, including reducing anxiety and depression and improving mood However, there is some evidence that for pupils who do not enjoy physical activity it can have a negative impact on self-esteem and mood As well as some evidence that indicates that physical activity is linked to improved concentration and behaviour in the classroom Schools where a high percentage of pupils took part in three or more hours of PE and out of hours school sport were more likely to be categorised as having low numbers of pupils on free school meals Source: Evidence on Physical Education and Sports in Schools, 2013

62 After School Clubs The average cost of an after-school club is now £48.19 per week in Britain(£1,830 per year) While there is only a 14% difference in price between the most expensive region (East of England) and the cheapest (Yorkshire and Humberside), the costs in the most expensive London local authority are 240% higher than the cheapest in the capital These cost differences are caused by differing levels of local authority and school subsidy for after-school provision, as well as level of supply and market failure. This means that parents in neighbouring local authorities may have very different costs for after-school clubs and that cannot be offset by regional differences in wags There are more significant differences in the costs of clubs within local authorities and between different local authorities in a region/nation than between regions and nations Source: Child Care Cost Survey

63 ADDITIONAL COST OF EDUCATION

64 Summary The cost of raising a child (until 21 years of age) has doubled over the last decade, with families in the South West have seen the biggest rise in the cost of raising a child (78%) Basic school related expenses such as transport, uniform and school trips represent increased pressure on families who are already struggling – particularly on single parents Spend per family ranges from those who spend nothing each month to those who have a much greater need for support and spend upwards of £160 each month

65 Cost of Raising Children has increased over the last decade Category % difference from last year % difference from 2003 Education*£32,593£71,780£72,8321.5%123.5% Childcare & Babysitting £39,613£62,099£63,7382.6%60.9% Food£14,918£18,667£19,2703.2%29.2% Clothing£11,360£10,781£10,770-0;1%-5.2% Holidays£11,458£15,532£16,1954.3%41.3% Hobbies and Toys £8,861£9,248£9,3160.7%5.1% Leisure and Recreation £6,366£7,303£7,3530.7%15.5% Pocket money£3,386£4,337£4,4582.8%31.6% Furniture£2,074£3,373£4,4582.8%31.6% Personal£925£1,143£1,1551%24.9% Other£8,845£13,761£13,9091.1%57.3% TOTAL£140,398£218,024£222,2582%58.4% Cost of raising a child soars to £222,458. That’s £29 a day for 21 years Source: LV=, Cost of a Child Report (*Does not include private school fees), 2014

66 London and the South East of England remain the most expensive places to raise a child Region Difference North East£127,294£206,49562% North West£131,151£215,28564% Yorkshire & Humber£123,630£123,12372% East Midlands£136,960£217,86859% West Midlands£129,889£228,22076% East of England£143,944£233,36362% London£158,411£239,12351% South East£151,294£237,23357% South West£128,123£228,20078% England£140,407£223,00859% Wales£140,473£207,12047% Scotland£135,200£225,33867% Northern Ireland£140,314£232,88366% Average UK£140,398£222,45858% However, families in the South West have seen the biggest rise in the cost of raising a child (78%) over the last ten years Source: LV=, Cost of a Child Report (*Does not include private school fees), 2014

67 School related expenses Even with state-run schools and colleges offering tax-payer funded education between the ages of 3 and 18, there are a host of associated expenses for parents to juggle. Out of school care weighs in as the biggest cost for UK families who spend an average of £558 per child per year. Spend per family ranges from those who spend nothing each month to those who have a much greater need for support and spend upwards of £160 each month. Basic school-related expenses per child per year: £369 - Transport £379 – Food (including school dinners and packed lunches) £558 – Out of school care (e.g. Breakfast clubs and after school care) £109 – Uniform £78 - Shoes £63 – Textbooks £59 – Sports kit £1,614 – Total Source: The Aviva Family Finances Report 2013

68 ATTITUDES TOWARDS EDUCATION

69 Summary Experience of school is greatly affected by the child’s background, with those from poorer backgrounds more likely to have negative attitudes towards school and a lower sense of control of their lives (28% agreeing that ‘teachers are always having a go at them’) Contrary to popular belief, there is no evidence to suggest that pupils whose parents have low academic qualifications have lower aspirations than others However, intentions regarding staying in education post-16 is strongly related to levels of parental education

70 Attitudes towards school Advantaged SchoolsDisadvantaged Schools ‘I don’t think there is very many bad things about school’ (10-year-old boy) ‘I don’t like school, ‘cos you have to work. I think it’s too long (10-year-old boy) ‘It can be good to learn if they make things fun to learn (10-year-old boy) ‘No one likes it in our class, none of the boys like it, don’t they not? (10-year-old boy) ‘I don’t like school so much, for one reason that every kid doesn’t like school, there’s too much work but a bigger reason is I don’t like taking work home because... It’s hard work and you don’t get out to play (10-year-old) ‘I hate school, doing work and teachers shouting at me’ (10-year-old boy) ‘If you don’t go to school, your Dad will go to jail’ (11-year-old boy) Students from different backgrounds experience different relationships with teachers and with other adults They have different learning experiences outside school and in particular engage in different kinds of activities that contribute to their learning and different experiences of homework A key feature of this difference is that children from less advantaged backgrounds are more likely to feel a lack of control over and less involvement in their learning, and so have a greater tendency to become reluctant recipients of the taught curriculum Source: JRF, 2012 (The impact of attitudes and aspirations on educational attainment and participation

71 How to foster aspirations JRF research shows that parents and pupils from every socio-economic background have high aspirations and that ‘the real difficulty for many children was in knowing how to fulfil their ambitions’ It is particularly important to help pupils from disadvantaged backgrounds understand their choices because their family and social networks are less likely to include people from the backgrounds they aspire to. This reduced ‘social capital’ limits pupils’ access to the information and opportunities they need to achieve their aspirations Source: JRF, 2012, The role of aspirations, attitudes and behaviour in closing the educational attainment gap

72 Parental qualifications and attitudes to school Parental educational level is an important predictor of children’s educational and behavioural outcomes Intentions to stay on at school are also related to levels of parental education – with 1 in 5 not knowing what they will do after 16 Source: BHPS, ISER, 2003

73 FURTHER EDUCATION AND VOCATIONAL SKILLS

74 Summary As a result of the economic downturn, more pupils stayed on in full time education post-16 Evidence suggests that those who decide to leave full time education at 16 are more likely to become NEET, which is believed to result in higher chances of unemployment later in life Young people’s employment overall is highly and disproportionately concentrated in front line service sector role and often considered starting point for young people’s engagement with the labour market There has been a sharp rise in the number of apprenticeship starts by people aged 25 and over, whilst under 19s is decreasing Evidence suggests that teenagers from wealthy backgrounds are still around 10 times more likely to get into top universities than those from poorer homes

75 Trends in participation of Education The increase in full-time education reflected an overall expansion in participation in education and training – resulting in a drop in the number of NEETS Source: DfE, Statistical release 2014

76 School leavers at 16 more likely to become NEETs Individuals who become NEET on leaving school have a very high risk of remaining unemployed in the medium (5 years) term and have a greater risk of unemployment and lower wages in the long run (up to 10 years on) Young people who are initially NEET at age 16/17 and who do then find work are most likely to end up in a job without training Taking a job (particularly a full ‐ time one) with or without training is associated with a lower probability of becoming NEET and hence may be viewed as beneficial. Further, young people who combine work with full ‐ time education are significantly less likely to become NEET Thus policy aimed at engaging young people with the labour market and securing them genuine work experience is potentially valuable as a means of minimising the risk of becoming NEET and consequently having negative long term outcomes Source: LSYPE waves 4, 5 & 6, DfE Statisitical release 2014

77 NEETS by age Proportion of 16, 17 and 18 year olds NEET: England, end 1994 – 2013 (prov.) Overall the NEET rate for year olds fell from 9.8% in 2011 to 9.6% in 2012 At age 16, the NEET rate had been falling between 2005 and 2010, because the rising participation more than compensated for the falling employment rates of the NET (not in Education or Training) groups At age 17, there was an increase in education and training between 2011 and 2012, so the proportion of NEETS fell from 8.5% to 7.3% At age 18, the employment rate of the NET group has a stronger influence over the NEET rate than at 16 and 17, because a lower proportion of the cohort is participating in education or training Source: DfE, Statistical release 2014 Removal of EMA in England After the Education Maintenance Allowance (EMA) was scrapped end of 2010, NEETS saw a year-on-year increase of 6% for 16 year olds and just over 2% for 17 and 18 year olds

78 Young people and the skilled economy Young people’s employment is highly and disproportionately concentrated in front line service sector role These kinds of jobs are often considered to be stepping stones to something better, the starting point for young people’s engagement with the labour market The incentives for employers to provide any form of skill formation are weak because in many circumstances ‘the social and generic ‘skills’ that employers are looking for are uncertified... because the formal skill levels needed in many lower end jobs are so limited’ This is an important point to consider given that by 2020 it is estimated that there will be just 585,000 economically active adults with no qualifications in the UK, but that the economy will still have around 7.5 million jobs that require no entry qualifications Youth Employment by Sector, year olds not in education (2010) Source: ONS, Resolution Foundation

79 Young Peoples participation paths between ages Contrary to popular belief, large numbers of young people are not walking away from education and employment. A significant group of young people is struggling to find appropriate courses and appropriate jobs which will give them a secure entry into the labour market, with prospects of continued progression. Source: Review of Vocational Education – The Wolf Report, 2011

80 Apprenticeships Apprentices are able to gain valuable on-the-job training while earning a minimum of £80 per week and can achieve a variety of nationally recognised qualifications such as an NVQ (National Vocational Qualification), BTEC (Business and Technology Education Council) or City and Guilds certificate Since 2009/10, there has been a sharp rise in the number of apprenticeship starts by people aged 25 and over Source: DfE, Statistical release 2014

81 Entry to Higher Education Teenagers from wealthy backgrounds are still around 10 times more likely to get into top universities than those from poorer homes. In addition, young men from disadvantaged backgrounds are particularly badly affected and remain under-represented in applications to all universities. The least disadvantaged teenagers are now 9.5 times more likely to succeed than poorer children, a ratio that has barely changed from 9.8 in The gap is largest among disadvantaged applicants, meaning disadvantaged boys are particularly disadvantaged. Students who are not eligible for free school meals remain more than twice as likely as those as those eligible to apply for university. % of students from independent and state schools gaining places at the most selective HE institutions Source: Department for Business, Innovation & Skills

82 Enrolment at Universities The total number of first degree enrolments stood at 1,528,480 in 2012/13. Full time student enrolment increased by14.5% since 2008/09 and remained the same as 2011/12. Part time student enrolment has increased by 5.3% for part time students and decreased by 5.7% since last year % +5.3% Source: Higher Education Statistics Agency Limited 2014

83 IMPLICATIONS

84 Implications for the Fund The need for targeting Throughout the report, the data has shown clearly that specific groups are affected disproportionately by certain trends, for example: – Boys are affected by the comparative lack of male teachers – Ethnic minorities are affected by language barriers – Children in care are most likely to suffer from mental ill health or other related issues – Children living in rural areas are less likely to achieve the required level of qualifications – Children of parents with no qualifications are more likely to leave school at 16 As such our central recommendation is for the Fund to develop programmes that appeal to and support the needs of the specific groups they are designed to benefit. This may require programmes that are only open to these specific groups Across each of the different sections of the report it is clear that precisely targeted programmes are required to alleviate and resolve specific areas of need

85 Implications for the Fund Transitions A child’s journey through education is supported by a number of services depending on the tiers of education – primary, secondary, tertiary and so on. These are all covered by the public spending and the government’s responsibilities for service provision However, there is a clear need for support in helping to manage transitions between these tiers of education – This is demonstrated starkly by the number of children with parents with few or no qualifications who ‘don’t know’ what they will do after the age of 16 Support at these stages of childhood – and, of course, targeted at those who need them – could have a hugely beneficial impact on families in need

86 Implications for the Fund School places and overcrowding One of the most urgent issues identified by this report has far greater implications for public spending than for the Fund – the overcrowding of schools and the lack of available places While the Fund is clearly unable to directly resolve this issue, it should be aware of the wider impact this trend will have. – To make up for the shortfall in places, local authorities are likely to divert (limited) funds away from other services or areas of spending – As such the quality of other services is likely to decline – A reduction in service delivery or quality is likely to adversely affected those families most in need, as they are likely to be most dependent on the state Other issues identified in this report – such as attainment gaps – are also likely to be exacerbated by overcrowding, and will disproportionately affect those most in need

87 Implications for the Fund Closing the attainment gaps After school or weekend learning sessions can help boost educational attainment amongst pupils who are struggling in one or more areas of learning To be effective in closing the attainment gap, however, these programmes need to directly benefit the intended recipients. To do this, they must appeal to those in need of support – and potentially exclude those who don’t The gender gap could be reduced if a greater proportion of the educational workforce was male – although the Fund cannot influence this directly it can ensure that positive male role models and male staff are represented in its programmes

88 Implications for the Fund Measuring deprivation The best available indicator to measure educational attainment and deprivation is whether or not a pupil is eligible for free school meals (FSM) – although this is an imperfect and binary measure as it does not differentiate between different types or degrees of deprivation Proposals to increase the eligibility of FSM to all primary school children would further lessen the usefulness of the indicator As such, the Fund should consider developing its own indicator to measure deprivation

89 Implications for the Fund Wellbeing Areas of the curriculum aimed at supporting children’s wellbeing were recently introduced, and as such are not yet widely understood - which makes them vulnerable to change As the data in this report shows, however, they have already provided a wealth of insight and evidence of best practice in combating issues of low wellbeing amongst children, and should be supported

90 Thank you Trajectory Ltd Enterprise House 1-2 Hatfields London SE1 9PG T #TrajectoryTweet Prepared by: Paul Flatters Tom Johnson Carolin Kampik


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