Presentation on theme: "Characteristics of AES Few Drivers… Foodgrains have gone up from 51 m t to 212 m t NCA as a % of GA has increased from 42 to 47 - intensification Foodgrains."— Presentation transcript:
Few Drivers… Foodgrains have gone up from 51 m t to 212 m t NCA as a % of GA has increased from 42 to 47 - intensification Foodgrains occupy 65% of the area, oilseeds 15% Share of wheat increased from 7.6% to 13%, share of oilseeds increased from 8.3% to 15%, share of pulses has fallen 16% to 13%, share of horticulture increased from 1.3% to 4% Total livestock increased from 293m to 480m
Few Drivers … 92% of available runoff is used for irrigation. Irrigation efficiency amongst the poorest in the world (25-30%) NIA covers 57 M ha and has increased from 18% to 40% of NCA - Canals – 31%; wells – 58%; share of wells has shot up; tank irrigation has decreased Total NPK risen from 70 K t to 17500 k t; consumption of pesticides 24 k t (1971) to 85 k in 1994-95 Tractors have increased from 8600 to 2.2m
AES wise drivers … Arid System (AES) Large Irrigation Projects Grazing and common lands being put under crops Cropping pattern towards water intensive crops Growth in livestock Mechanization of agriculture Coastal System (AES) Conversion of forestland to agricultural land/aquaculture Growth of modern/intensive aquaculture Low level of fertilizer use Coir production Hill & Mountainous System (AES) Shifting cultivation Conversion of forest land to agricultural land Mono cropping Overgrazing
Drivers … Irrigated System (AES) Predominance of rice-wheat sequence Expansion of irrigation Use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides Burning of rice-wheat straw Rainfed System (AES) Spread of agriculture into marginal lands Changes in mixed systems Inability to invest in adequate inputs/technologies Limited scientific progress & infrastructure Spread of irrigation Rainy season fallow
Environmental Impacts Soil Wind erosion in arid systems due to tillage 756-1180 t/ha and due to disc ploughing 2630-3160 t/ha (during a sand storm) Erosion due to shifting cultivation in H&M systems 30 to 170 t/ha/yr and upto 763 t/ha in hill cultivation of Doon Valley Soil salinization is significant in irrigated, arid and rainfed systems due to introduction of canal irrigation – 2.7 mill ha in the 5 states of the Indo gangetic plain, 1.2 mill ha in Rajasthan and 1.4 mill ha in the semi-arid states Waterlogging due to rise in groundwater table upto 0.2 to 2 m in arid systems and 1-3 m in irrigated systems 1.7 mill ha under waterlogging in the semi-arid states, 2.1 mill ha under the 5 states of Indo-gangetic plain
Water In Arid and Irrigated systems a fall of 30-100 cms in groundwater, annually Ground water pollution - About 20-25% of the samples had NO 3 >45 mg L -1 in Bihar and Haryana, while in rainfed states, the 10-50% of them were above NO 3 >45 mg L -1 in the semi-arid areas Fertilizer residue of 5*10 6 tons, pesticides residue of 65,000 tons and sediments of 1600 m tons enters the coastal waters of India annually. Fall in reservoir capacities and flooding in the plains Air Carbon emissions due to burning of rice wheat straw in irrigated systems 22,000 Gg/year Methane emissions from R-W system
Poverty Module Total no. of poor in India: 260 million in 1999-2000 About three-quarters of poor live in rural areas and depend mostly on agriculture for their livelihood GR: instrumental in improving rural livelihood opportunities since early 1970s Trends in Poverty Fluctuations till 1973; declining trend after that The falling poverty trend: a general feature in almost all the states in India; rates of fall differ substantially Issues:Relationship between Agri. growth and poverty reduction extensively studied in India
Does trickle down process operate in India? Role of relative food prices, wage rate and dev. expenditure emphasized in several studies NSSO data 1960 onwards and official Poverty line Concentration in 7 states: Orissa, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Assam, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal, – about 75% of the India’s poor High incidence of poverty among the scheduled tribe (46%) and scheduled caste (36%)
Determinants Panel data used for 14 major Indian States since 1960 with 20 rounds of NSS surveys. State dummies introduced in order to capture state specific effects.
Conclusions Agricultural developments have strong influence on poverty through several channels: income/yield, wage, relative prices. Yld channel likely to operate through irrigation whose effect is evident among all social groups Evidence indicates concentration of poor in the seven states in North, East and Central parts of India where agri. growth has been rather slow. Agricultural growth be extended to these regions. Poverty is highly prevalent among certain social groups such as ST and SC. Efforts must be made to integrate them with mainstream economic activities and strengthen linkage with agri. growth SCs spread all over India, STs concentrated in the above region. Regional and social group focus needed in poverty reduction strategy in India
Food Security Concerns in India GR and supportive government policies helped national food security and self -sufficiency There is concern about self- sufficiency given falling public investment in agriculture Do we need to be self- sufficient in food production? Crop mix to be decided by market forces and re- distributive policies to take care of problems of poverty and food insecurity? Given weaknesses in various re-distributive programs this strategy may not work. Besides self-sufficiency provides insurance against disruptions.
Large country intervention in thin foodgrains market argument Aggregate and Household level Food security Despite national FS, household FS remains Although subsidy programs like PDS and other income generating schemes exist, HH food security concerns remain Poor in rural areas are mostly agricultural labour and self employed in agriculture
Large percentage of children in both rural and urban areas are stunted and wasted Per capita nutrient intake of HH have not improved much. Calorie and protein intake of HH remain below corresponding RDA Observed trend fall in Cereal consumption in India Reasoning of diversification of food basket countered by the existing nutritional deficiency, especially among the poorest sections.
Buffer: Kerala Migrants Survey, 2001 Gulf emigrant stock 1.32 mil, one in every 5 Hhs; 0.7 m return migrants Relative magnitude of Gulf remittances 23% of SDP Typical emigrant Ag. worker, works 6yrs abroad, earns 9 times more Migrant numbers invested in Ag.---52.46 % Gulf savings invested in Ag.---28.7 % Ag.workers among Gulf emigrants---22.3 % Return migrants settled in Ag.---24.8 % Former Ag.workers settled back in Ag.---68.9 % Former non-Ag.workers settled in Ag.---3.2 %
Migrant plumbers of Orissa 2 Field Surveys on plumbers: 413 source, 511 in Delhi 90 % literate, 70 % from Ag. background, 85 % peasant communities Unmarried, aged around 20s, stays around 2 decades in the urban areas 2/3 rds visit at least once a year, stays 1-3 weeks, 1/4 th participate in Ag. Activities 2/3 rds of 309 return plumbers settled in Ag. 82 % make regular remittances back home 2/3 rds remit for family maintenance, 15 % for land purchase 9 % for house construction, 4 % for repairs, 1 % for irri.well, 1 % for livestock
Social Viability and Agrarian Economy Sluggish Growth in production, and productivity and high regional disparity Growth of rural NFE less than that in urban. Growth of rural NFE in 90’s less than preceding decade High rural unemployment rate
High rural NFE in a state or a region does not necessarily imply healthy economic development NFE growth around few large cities or industrial corridors Large parts of NFE growth induced by poverty Rural absorption of low yield surplus labour
Urban economies growing fast but do not absorb labour force Inter state migration on decline RU migration on decline, putting pressure on rural economy and its infrastructure Prosperous states becoming less hospitable and in-migrating Poorer states less out-migrating.
Degenerated peripheralisation Urban centres pushing out their problems to their peripheries High unemployment, low income, low literacy high IMR and low health indicators in the immediate peripheries Low socio-economic indicators in periphery underscoring costs of RU adjustment Case Studies from Punjab and TN peasant risk sharing in labour markets to absorb market shocks and burden sharing by region and caste based groups
Culture Module Agriculture as an Unrewarding Occupation Falling growth rate in agriculture. National Agriculture Policy 2000 says “Agriculture is unrewarding” for cultivators Rural agriculture employment prospects limited Frequent complaints about soil fertility and agr. infrastructure Increased Rural Non Farm Employment (RNFE) 45.5% of Rural NDP from RNFE in India RNFE not always distress diversification – present among all classes in north India
Variations in North Indian Villages Collapse of jajmani system: organic caste division of labour In Punjab and west UP, RNFE spread across a variety of occupations from beauty parlours to football stitching In Punjab and west UP upper castes present in a variety of RNFE In east UP upper caste hardly present in RNFE Conclusion: Caste and occup. rigidity stronger in east UP
Caste and Family Relations Scheduled Castes become militant, resist performing degrading work Agrarian politics not centred around landowner-landless relations Now farmers’ movements – against state Joint family under duress in all villages studied – more among lower classes
Conclusions There is national FS but not sub-national - regional, household, individual Agriculture delivered prosperity, but endemic poverty persists: NI, RF, SA regions, East, Central India They envelop STs and SCs, mostly in these regions Agri. brought prosperity with environ damage. Focus should shift from large dams, seed- fertilizer strategy
Focus on technology which mitigate neg. ext.; focus in the small - irri, poor farmer/region & HH These will bring higher and dispersed prosperity, preserve env, reduce poverty & social excl. Refocusing will preserve rural economy and social viability Refocusing will retain village society with culture and ambience with modernity Plenty more care and attention to agriculture, rural education and primary healthcare