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The Civic Orientations of Arab Publics: Selected Findings from the Arab Barometer About Country: Governance (democracy, Islam) About Individual: Engagement.

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Presentation on theme: "The Civic Orientations of Arab Publics: Selected Findings from the Arab Barometer About Country: Governance (democracy, Islam) About Individual: Engagement."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Civic Orientations of Arab Publics: Selected Findings from the Arab Barometer About Country: Governance (democracy, Islam) About Individual: Engagement (interest, trust) Mark Tessler University of Michigan

2 CountryWave OneWave TwoWave Three Algeria N= /2006N= /2011N= /2013 BahrainN= /2009 Egypt N= /2011N= /2013 Iraq N= /2011N=1215 6/2013 Jordan N=1143 6/2006N= /2010N= /2012 Kuwait N= /2014 LebanonN= /2007N= /2010N=1200 6/2013 Libya N= /2014 MoroccoN= /2006 N= /2013 Palestine N=1270 5/2006N= /2010N= /2012 Saudi Arabia N= /2011 Sudan N= /2010N= /2013 Tunisia N= /2011N=1196 2/2013 Yemen N=717 10/2007N=1200 2/2011N= / countries7 surveys, N=7,40210 surveys, N=12,78212 surveys, N=14,868 Arab Barometer Data 3 Waves since Countries (probability samples) 29 surveys (face-to-face interviews) 35,052 respondents

3 Website: Information, Reports, Data Partners: Designing Interview Schedule

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5 A democratic system may have problems, yet it is better than other political systems (9 countries) About 80 Percent in Both Waves Think Democracy Is the Best Political System Continuing Support during a Period of Turbulence

6 But Some Change in Countries that Have Experienced Greatest Level of Turbulence Agree Strongly or Agree that Democracy Is the Best Political System 6-7/ / / / / / / / 2013

7 There is a difference in opinion among people regarding the most important features of democracy. If you had to choose one, which of the following features would you say is the most important? Third Wave Second WaveFeature of Democracy 2627 The opportunity to change the government through elections Freedom to criticize the government Narrowing the gap between rich and poor Providing basic items (such as food, housing, and clothing) to every individual Equality of political rights between citizens Eliminating financial and administrative corruption. 5051Political Process 5049Economic Performance An Imperfect Understanding of Democracy (as elsewhere)

8 To what extent do you strongly agree, agree, disagree or strongly disagree with each of the following statements 1. Religious leaders (imams, preachers, priests) should not interfere in voters’ decisions in elections. 2. [Your country] would be better off if religious people hold public positions in the state. 3. Religious leaders (imams, preachers, priests) should have influence over government decisions. 4. Religious practices are private and should be separated from social and political life. Islam and Its Place in Politics (Algeria, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, Sudan, Tunisia, Yemen) Percent Strongly Agree and Agree

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10 Tunisia: More than a Year under an Islamist Government Religious leaders should have influence in government decisions Religious practices NOT should be separated from social and political life 9-10/ / / / 2013

11 Men of religion should have influence over the decisions of government Democracy, whatever its limitations, is better than any other political systems Strongly Agree Agree (favor Islamic influence) Disagree/ Strongly Disagree (not favor Islamic influence) Strongly Agree/ Agree Percentage of Column Percentage of Total Democratic with Islam Wave 2 Wave 3 82% 76% 33% 27% Democratic without Islam Wave 2 Wave 3 84% 83% 51% 53% Disagree/ Strongly Disagree Percentage of Column Percentage of Total “Authoritarian” with Islam 18% 24% 7% 9% “Authoritarian” without Islam 16% 17% 9% 11% Democracy With and Without Islam

12 Wave Two Wave Three Democratic with Islam Democratic without Islam Authoritarian with Islam Authoritarian without Islam Algeria Egypt Iraq Jordan Lebanon Palestine Sudan Tunisia Yemen Political System Preference by Country and Time Period Decrease Increase

13 Men of religion should have influence over the decisions of government % Supporting Gender Equality Wave Two Wave Three All S. Agree/ Agree (favor Islamic influence) Disagree/ S. Disagree (not favor Islamic influence) A married woman can work outside the home A university education is more important for a boy than a girl On the whole, men make better political leaders than women Attitudes toward Women and Gender Equality among Respondents Who Do and Who Do Not Favor a Political Role for Islam

14 Islamic jurists and religious scholars often differ in their interpretations of certain issues in Islam. To what extent you agree or disagree with each interpretation below? Men of religion should have influence over the decisions of government % Supporting “progressive” interpretation Wave Two Wave Three All S. Agree/ Agree (favor Islamic influence) Disagree/ S. Disagree (not favor Islamic influence) In a Muslim country, non-Muslims should enjoy less political rights than Muslims In Islam, women should wear modest clothes without needing to wear the hijab Proper Interpretation of Islam Views of Respondents Who Favor and Who Do Not Favor a Political Role for Islam

15 Individual Political Engagement and Assessment National Political Engagement: Vote in last parliamentary election Political Interest Trust in government Personal Civic Engagement Member of civic associations Interpersonal trust Political efficacy

16 How much trust do you have in the government To what extent are you interested in politics Did you vote in last parliamentary election National Political Engagement

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18 A Closer Look at Trust in Government Which Countries Experienced the Most Change from Wave Two to Wave Three? What Are Some of the Demographics of Changing Assessments? Example of Yemen What Are Some of the Determinants of Trust in Government? Linear Regression with Wave Three Data

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21 Model (OLS – 9 countries)Coefficient (B)Std. ErrorSignificance Constant The economic situation of our country is good Islam should exert political influence Our country is very democratic (1-10 scale) Female Older Dependent variable: higher trust in government H1. Perceptions of the country’s economic situation H2. Desire for Islam to exert political influence H3. Degree to which Government is perceived to be democratic What Pushes Trust in Government Up or Down?

22 Economic Situation Perceived to be Favorable Opposes Islam Exerting Political Influence Country Perceived to be Democratic AlgeriaYes EgyptYes IraqYesYes ReversedYes JordanYesNoYes LebanonYes PalestineYes SudanYesNoYes TunisiaYes YemenYesNoYes Drivers of Higher Trust in Government Results of Linear Regression with Demographic Control Variables

23 Preview of Coming Attractions Data Release Wave 3 data Prepare merged 3-wave dataset Dissemination Increase number and coverage of short reports Enhance collaboration with Arab Reform Initiative Increase authors from the region Wave 4 Review Interview Schedule Continue fund-raising Explore addition of countries Capacity-Building Expand support for local teams Increase opportunities for Arab social scientists


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