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A quick variety of business models promoting, effecting, and compatible with sustainability talknicer.com/susjam James Salsman Sustainability.

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Presentation on theme: "A quick variety of business models promoting, effecting, and compatible with sustainability talknicer.com/susjam James Salsman Sustainability."— Presentation transcript:

1 A quick variety of business models promoting, effecting, and compatible with sustainability talknicer.com/susjam James Salsman Sustainability Jam November 2013 CBi China Bridge, Shanghai

2 Introduction to James Salsman talknicer.com/susjam2 Carnegie Mellon-trained statistician working since the 1990s on pronunciation assessment using speech recognition for language learning and at EF in Shanghai since May Hobbies include evaluating peer reviewed secondary academic journal literature, which uses statistics to describe the confidence and significance of inferences, and editing Wikipedia.

3 This is what we must do to survive talknicer.com/susjam3

4 We will do it, because solar and wind power are growing so fast talknicer.com/susjam4

5 Even if solar power did not exist, wind power alone is growing fast enough talknicer.com/susjam5

6 Scope of this talk does not include: Any business opportunities that existing companies are likely to be able to address – Traditional forms of renewable energy – Synthetic carbon neutral fuels: require large chemical engineering infrastructurecarbon neutral fuels Petro-conglomerates already have this – Batteries: very competitive industry – Pumped hydro storage: constrained by geography – Compressed air storage: too new for likely success talknicer.com/susjam6

7 Shipping container-based wind power Makani Power (acquired by Google, 2012) – – Likely to very rapidly displace traditional tower-based wind farms, including by scrapping Because they cost less than half and produce twice as much per land area, and they can go on ordinary trucks – Logistics of marketing, sales, installation, grid integration, support and repair services vastly larger than current Makani staffing levels can support. Google is very likely to outsource these efforts talknicer.com/susjam7

8 Shipping container-based wind power talknicer.com/susjam8

9 Shipping container-based wind power talknicer.com/susjam9

10 Shipping container-based wind power talknicer.com/susjam10

11 Seawater carbon extraction Palo Alto Research Center (PARC) owns this: – – These will manifest as likely very large or outright giant plants on ocean ports – Very opaque commercialization prospects PARC may be fielding lock-up offers from petroleum companies who are likely to be severely disrupted However, their DARPA funding contract almost certainly requires reasonable and customary licensing terms Coastal and island jurisdictions may choose to opt out of patent encumbrance on national security grounds talknicer.com/susjam11

12 Seawater carbon extraction talknicer.com/susjam12

13 Income equality Very complicated political history, but a mistake by Yale Professor Arthur Okun is the source of most of the confusion: – Very profound and wide-ranging implications, especially in China – New unoccupied property transaction tax: 20% – Property tax announced last week – New down-payment for second urban home: 70% Likely to cause continued sharp increases in the broad healthcare sectors talknicer.com/susjam13

14 Income equality talknicer.com/susjam14

15 High-yield bond funds Likely destination of most Chinese investment savings as real estate becomes less attractive Stock market is far too volatile under command economy Chinese bond market has been remarkably stable and consistent, including through crises Returns have been about half of investment grade U.S. high-yield bond funds with 30+ constituents talknicer.com/susjam15

16 High-yield bond funds talknicer.com/susjam16

17 Shareholder activism and resolution support services As the “1% who stand with the 99%” age and become more active as shareholders, they are likely to become extremely successful – However, pushing shareholder resolutions requires delegate attendance at shareholder meetings and limited power of attorney actions – Such actions are easy to outsource to service bureaus, if and only if such services are being offered – Examples: fossil fuel divestment, CEO pay caps, strengthening social security, etc. talknicer.com/susjam17

18 Questions? Thank you! talknicer.com/susjam18


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