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A. John Bailer baileraj@MiamiOH.edu Statistics and Statistical Modeling in The First Two Years of College Math

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In my remarks, I will consider the general question of when statistics and statistical modeling encountered in the curriculum Why is this important? Past patterns Present (& evolving) practice Future opportunities Outline

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My remarks apply to the statistics and statistical modeling background of needed by both STEM majors and to non-STEM majors. My remarks extend beyond the ‘uses of math in physical sciences’ category of this panel Context of remarks

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Quantitative Literacy / Data analytic skills are a critical component of a general education (AAC&U LEAP core competency – https://www.aacu.org/leap) “competency and comfort working with numerical data” “ability to reason and solve quantitative problems from a wide array of authentic contexts and everyday life situations” “understand and can create sophisticated arguments supported by quantitative evidence … clearly communicate those arguments” Importance of statistics and stat modeling? [Gen. Ed.]

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ABET criteria for bioengineering (and others) curriculum: an understanding of biology and physiology capability to apply advanced mathematics (including differential equations and statistics) … For manufacturing engineering: (d) manufacturing systems design: ability to analyze, synthesize, and control manufacturing operations using statistical methods Importance of statistics and stat modeling? [Engineering]

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Data collected on all phases of life and decisions based on models derived from these data (e.g., health decisions from risk models, recommender systems). Data in context matters (who was studied? Is this relevant for me?) Skepticism of what is reported is healthy (was a predictive model validated?) Why is this important? [data rich world]

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Skills for extracting information and insight from data are in demand indeed.com search (02oct14) ‘statistician’ –1632 jobs ‘statistical analyst’ –13647 jobs ‘statistical programmer’ –2402 jobs ‘data scientist’ –11791 jobs ‘marketing research analyst’ – 6700 – many positions require ‘proven data gathering and analytical skills’ Why is this important?

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Early 80’s … Statistics intro course began to change … less procedural and more conceptual Intro. to Practice of Statistics (Moore & McCabe) included sections that addressed: describing data collecting data drawing conclusions from data Regression for describing relationship between 2 vars (not much in ways of explicit modeling) Past Patterns

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Early 80’s … Statistics and Mathematics majors positioned to not encounter any data analysis until their 3 rd year of study. First, Calc I, Calc II, Calc III, Linear Algebra, Probability Then, Math Stat (estimation, testing, etc.) Finally, Regression [first time power of data analysis modeling realized] Past Patterns

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Modify curriculum so that stat and math majors (already true for STEM majors) see data analysis concepts early (only one calc prereq; see before probability) Modify curriculum so that stat and math majors can take an early intro to modeling (only one STA prereq vs. the previous courses with 3 calc + linear algebra + probability + intro stat prereqs). Present (& evolving) practice

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Expansion of stat ed efforts Journal of Stat Ed – First volume – 1993 - http://www.amstat.org/publications/jse/ http://www.amstat.org/publications/jse/ ICOTS – 1982 (every 4 years) USCOTS – 2005 (every 2 years) + eCOTS GAISE – 2005 (college version) - http://www.amstat.org/education/gaise/GaiseCollege_Full.pdf http://www.amstat.org/education/gaise/GaiseCollege_Full.pdf ASA guidelines for undergraduate stat curriculum (2000 and 2014 revision in progress) Present (& evolving) practice

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New introductory curriculum – reflecting key GAISE ideas (e.g. emphasize stat literacy, use real data, stress concepts rather than procedures, active learning, use tech, assess) Introductory statistics using randomization and bootstrapping principles – Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data (www.lock5stat.com)www.lock5stat.com Workshop Statistics (http://www.rossmanchance.com/ws/)http://www.rossmanchance.com/ws/ Introduction to Statistical Investigations (http://www.math.hope.edu/isi/) Present (& evolving) practice

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New accessible modeling books – Stat2 http://www.amazon.com/STAT2-Book-Companion-Premium-Access/dp/1464148260 http://www.amazon.com/STAT2-Book-Companion-Premium-Access/dp/1464148260 designed to help students build on their statistical knowledge in order to analyze rich datasets using statistical models. The book develops a systematic approach to using different models and includes exercises to allow students to practice working with real data alongside output from statistical software. Present (& evolving) practice

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Greater number of students with AP statistics credit entering college (169K in 2013, 98K scored 3+; 185K in 2014) College board lists AP stat exam as “can lead to a future in…” 106 Career Areas and 32 College Majors Common Core statistics and probability – includes “interpret linear models” ( http://www.corestandards.org/Math/Content/HSS/introduction/ ) http://www.corestandards.org/Math/Content/HSS/introduction/ MS and HS students will be doing simulations in classes Future opportunities

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How will we change the statistics curriculum in response to more students entering college with AP Stat credit and with years of exposure to statistics and probability concepts in the common core? One possible answer: the current ‘stat 2’ class (intro to stat models) will become the future ‘stat 1’ class. Future opportunities

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Thank you

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