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Inference on Proportions. What are the steps for performing a confidence interval? 1.Assumptions 2.Calculations 3.Conclusion.

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Presentation on theme: "Inference on Proportions. What are the steps for performing a confidence interval? 1.Assumptions 2.Calculations 3.Conclusion."— Presentation transcript:

1 Inference on Proportions

2 What are the steps for performing a confidence interval? 1.Assumptions 2.Calculations 3.Conclusion

3 1. Assumptions: SRS of context Approximate Normal distribution because np > 10 & n(1-p) > 10 Population is at least 10n (tests independence)

4 2. Formula for Confidence interval: Normal curve DO NOT p-hat Note: For confidence intervals, we DO NOT know p – so we MUST substitute p-hat for p  in both the SD & when checking assumptions.

5 3. Conclusion Statement We are X % confident that the true proportion of whatever is happening in context of the problem is between A and B.

6 A January 2015 poll that Ms. Nichols totally made up a random sample of 2015 high school AP students, 814 said that Calculus is more fun than Statistics. Find a 90% confidence interval for the true proportion of AP students who think that Calculus is more fun than Statistics.

7 Assumptions: SRS of AP studentsYES Approx. Normal: 2015 (814/2015) > 10YES 2015 (1-814/2015) > 10YES Independence: pop. >10(2015)YES Calculations: Conclusion: We are 90% confident that the true proportion of AP students who think Calculus is more fun that Statistics is between.3860 and.4220.

8 A May 2000 Gallup Poll found that 38% of a random sample of 1012 adults said that they believe in ghosts. Find a 95% confidence interval for the true proportion of adults who believe in ghost.

9 Assumptions: Have an SRS of adults np =1012(.38) = & n(1-p) = 1012(.62) = Since both are greater than 10, the distribution can be approximated by a normal curve Population of adults is at least 10,120. We are 95% confident that the true proportion of adults who believe in ghosts is between 35% and 41%. Step 1: check assumptions! Step 2: make calculations Step 3: conclusion in context

10 Another Gallop Poll istaken in order to measure the proportion of adults who approve of attempts to clone humans. What sample size is necessary to be within of the true proportion of adults who approve of attempts to clone humans with a 95% Confidence Interval? To find sample size: However, since we have not yet taken a sample, we do not know a p-hat (or p) to use!

11 What p-hat (p) do you use when trying to find the sample size for a given margin of error?.1(.9) =.09.2(.8) =.16.3(.7) =.21.4(.6) =.24.5(.5) =.25 By using.5 for p-hat, we are using the worst- case scenario and using the largest SD in our calculations.

12 Another Gallop Poll is taken in order to measure the proportion of adults who approve of attempts to clone humans. What sample size is necessary to be within of the true proportion of adults who approve of attempts to clone humans with a 95% Confidence Interval? Use p-hat =.5 Divide by 1.96 Square both sides Round up on sample size

13 Stop & do homework!

14 Steps for a Hypothesis Test 1.Check Assumptions (same as Conf. Int.) 2.State Hypotheses 3.Calculate the test statistic (Z) 4.Calculate the p-value 5.State Conclusion

15 Hypotheses for proportions: H 0 : p = value H a : p > value where p is the true proportion of context Use >, <, or ≠

16 Formula for hypothesis test:

17 Calculating the P-Value The p-value is the probability that you get your result by chance alone assuming the null hypothesis is true Use normalcdf Let mean = 0, SD = 1 For less than: z = UB For greater than z = LB

18 Conclusion Statement If the p-value < α… Since the p-value is less than α we reject the null hypothesis. There is sufficient evidence to suggest that the true proportion of what we are calculating the proportion of in the problem is greater/less/different than original p in problem. If the p-value is > α… Since the p-value is greater than α we fail to reject the null hypothesis. There is not sufficient evidence to suggest that the true proportion of what we are calculating the proportion of in the problem is greater/less/different than original p in problem. Note: Unless otherwise stated in the problem assume that α is 0.05 α is also called the significance level

19 A company is willing to renew its advertising contract with a local radio station only if the station can prove that more than 20% of the residents of the city have heard the ad and recognize the company’s product. The radio station conducts a random sample of 400 people and finds that 90 have heard the ad and recognize the product. Is this sufficient evidence for the company to renew its contract?

20 Assumptions: Have an SRS of people np = 400(.2) = 80 & n(1-p) = 400(.8) = Since both are greater than 10, this distribution is approximately normal. Population of people is at least H 0 : p =.2where p is the true proportion of people who H a : p >.2heard the ad Since the p-value > , I fail to reject the null hypothesis. There is not sufficient evidence to suggest that the true proportion of people who heard the ad is greater than.2. Use the parameter in the null hypothesis to check assumptions! Use the parameter in the null hypothesis to calculate standard deviation!

21 A new reality TV show, “I Want to Marry a Statistician,” has been showing on Monday evenings, and ratings showed that it has been watched by 55% of the viewing audience each week. The producers are moving the show to Wednesday night. They are interested in whether or not the move had affected the ratings. After the show was moved, a random sample of 500 people who watch TV on Wednesday night are surveyed and asked what show they are watching. 255 respond with “I Want to Marry a Statistician.” Were the ratings affected by the move at the.1 level of significance?

22 Assumptions: SRS of viewers YES 500(.55) > 10 and 500(.45) > 10YES Pop. of TV watchers > 5000YES H 0 : p =.55Where p is the true proportion of people H a : p ≠.2watching the show Since the p-value is less than α I reject the null hypothesis. There is sufficient evidence to suggest that the proportion of people watching the show on Wednesday is different from what it was on Monday.

23 For hypothesis testing when you DON’T need to do a complete write up…. H 0 and H a The test statistic (Z) The p-value Reject or fail to reject H 0 Answer the question (yes or no) Note: You must do a complete write-up on the AP test


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