2. William Farr: Good Numbers, Bad Theory B. Burt Gerstman (Adapted for MUSE class of 11/23/04)

3. William Farr

4. Brief Bio (Humphries, 1885) Born 1807Born 1807 Adopted at age 2 by wealthy individualAdopted at age 2 by wealthy individual Studied medicine 1826 – 1828Studied medicine 1826 – 1828 Received inheritance enabling study in Paris and Switzerland (medical statistics)Received inheritance enabling study in Paris and Switzerland (medical statistics) Published statistical reports in 1830sPublished statistical reports in 1830s Did poorly in medical practice in LondonDid poorly in medical practice in London Hired in the Registrar General's Office, worked there for 41 yearsHired in the Registrar General's Office, worked there for 41 years Died 1883Died 1883

5. Farr's conceptual framework of disease etiology (Eyler, 1980, p. 2) Environmental reform in which political and medical ideas reinforced each otherEnvironmental reform in which political and medical ideas reinforced each other Statistics offered best hope of advancing social progress and medical knowledgeStatistics offered best hope of advancing social progress and medical knowledge Imaginative use of a numerical methodImaginative use of a numerical method

6. “All smell in disease” Clung to orthodox explanation that epidemic disease was caused by foul air (a "miasma")Clung to orthodox explanation that epidemic disease was caused by foul air (a "miasma") Used complex mathematical models to prove his pointUsed complex mathematical models to prove his point

7. Failed to account... for the fact that people living at low elevations were more likely to draw water from contaminated sources...for the fact that people living at low elevations were more likely to draw water from contaminated sources...

8. Conclusion Firm commitments to political ideology clouds scientific judgment Reliance on numerical method without attention to a pathophysiologic mechanisms is counterproductive

9. References Eyler, J. M. (1980). The conceptual origins of William Farr's epidemiology: numerical methods and social thought in the 1830s. In A. M. Lilienfeld (Ed.), Time, Places, and Persons (pp. 1-21). Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press.Eyler, J. M. (1980). The conceptual origins of William Farr's epidemiology: numerical methods and social thought in the 1830s. In A. M. Lilienfeld (Ed.), Time, Places, and Persons (pp. 1-21). Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press. Farr, W. (1852). Influence of Elevation on the Fatality of Cholera. Journal of the Statistical Society of London, 15(2), 155-183.Farr, W. (1852). Influence of Elevation on the Fatality of Cholera. Journal of the Statistical Society of London, 15(2), 155-183. Gerstman, B. B. (2003). Epidemiology Kept Simple: An Introduction to Traditional and Modern Epidemiology (2 ed.). New York: Wiley-Liss.Gerstman, B. B. (2003). Epidemiology Kept Simple: An Introduction to Traditional and Modern Epidemiology (2 ed.). New York: Wiley-Liss. Halliday, S. (2000). William Farr: Campaigning Statistician. Journal of Medical Biography, 8, 220-227 (Available http://www.ph.ucla.edu/epi/snow/farr/).Halliday, S. (2000). William Farr: Campaigning Statistician. Journal of Medical Biography, 8, 220-227 (Available http://www.ph.ucla.edu/epi/snow/farr/). Humphreys, N. A. (1885). Biographical Sketch of William Farr. In Vital Statistics: A Memorial Volume of Selections from the Reports and Writings of William Farr (pp. vii-xxiv). London: Office of the Sanitary Institute..Humphreys, N. A. (1885). Biographical Sketch of William Farr. In Vital Statistics: A Memorial Volume of Selections from the Reports and Writings of William Farr (pp. vii-xxiv). London: Office of the Sanitary Institute..